Also the 64% win rate is probably luck, I know for sure wins and losses can be luck
2018 WNBA (same Model as my 17NBA) +2.93% CLV
I am not sure but from what I understand line value like this is probably not luck. Also remember this is my first year, I hope my models gain a little weight because they are built to learn and adjust accordingly.
So, are you able to estimate, given that CLV, what your win rate would be expected to be over the course of 1000 games?
No, I dont have a full understanding of what CLV is. Up to this point I have been arriving at the conclusion that CLV is a shorthand tool to help determine an expected long term win rate without having to actually run through a large number of games for verification.
Right now as far as I can tell you are 44-24 (64.7%) in WNBA. I know absolutely nothing about WNBA, so when I am betting on it, Im not really betting on WNBA. What I am betting on is that your success rate is not entirely due to variance. For some reason I thought the CLV number would somehow yield an estimate that would indicate how much of this nice run you are on has been variance, and how much has been due to your skillful modeling/handicapping...
this is the breakdown I get from playing with the numbers
assume its -107 which is what I bet at even though some plays are higher and lower
1000 games
-107 I will win 500 netting me 1050 Units and bet 1070 netting me -20 units
now lets assume I am beating the line by 2.8% more than that so I am closing at 54.59%
so at -120 I am winning 528 games 1109 Units and bet 1070 so I will net 39 Units
I am right now winning at 64% and in reality with that clv I should be winning at 52.79%
so yes lots of that is variance but IF it could somehow stay like it is it would still be a winner with the variance.
Awesome job man. My favorite part is not only is your record killing it, your CLV is too. People here give you a bunch of shit which is silly, but when push comes to shove cant argue with 46-24 +19.6 and solid CLV. Theyd be blowing others with that record.
Awesome job man. My favorite part is not only is your record killing it, your CLV is too. People here give you a bunch of shit which is silly, but when push comes to shove cant argue with 46-24 +19.6 and solid CLV. Theyd be blowing others with that record.
I dont know if you remember at the begininng of the WNBA season, I said watch my WNBA picks they will be good because I thought if they looked anything like my NBA it would be good. I am glad it is going good. I know there are a zillion people just waiting for the tires to blow out, they know who they are! LOL, anyway thanks again man really appreciate the support now if I can just figure out why I lose every single day at baseball. PS I think I got a decent chance on CFL, I got something going now on the CFL. the first week of CFL I was missing something but now I think I cleared that up and the last 2 games got really good line value with the CFL. I am not going to offficially call the CFL thread ready to bet yet but I am very close I will say GO! when I think the CFL is bet ready.
I dont know if you remember at the begininng of the WNBA season, I said watch my WNBA picks they will be good because I thought if they looked anything like my NBA it would be good. I am glad it is going good. I know there are a zillion people just waiting for the tires to blow out, they know who they are! LOL, anyway thanks again man really appreciate the support now if I can just figure out why I lose every single day at baseball. PS I think I got a decent chance on CFL, I got something going now on the CFL. the first week of CFL I was missing something but now I think I cleared that up and the last 2 games got really good line value with the CFL. I am not going to offficially call the CFL thread ready to bet yet but I am very close I will say GO! when I think the CFL is bet ready.
I remember and been playing the whole time. You can see youve been learning based on your posts from when you joined until now. Ill take a guy like you thats hungry and humble vs some arrogant asshole that just spews the same old bullshit. I honestly admire your courage and Im glad youre doing well. Im not a big poster but Im always happy to see you killing it.
No, I dont have a full understanding of what CLV is. Up to this point I have been arriving at the conclusion that CLV is a shorthand tool to help determine an expected long term win rate without having to actually run through a large number of games for verification.
very rarely can you trust win loss records. WL even over the long term is suspect without line value. The problem with win loss is the standard deviation. Most guys who win a ton of games think they are onto something but in reality it can just be deviation. CLV is similar in it "could" be deviation but it has a sharper measuring stick.
W-L is a simple 13 wins 10 losses
where CLV grinds down a little closer with a very small percentage and that is ground down even tighter with a margin
CLV is what the books live off of.
They say the Yankees will win 58% of the time and so they set the line as if they will win 60% of the time and of course you pay to win 60% of the time and the Yankees really win 58% of the time. Sometimes WL at the book doesn't look good but that line value with enough games will show its head.
So for line value we do the opposite we say the Yankees are gonna win 58% of the time and we only bet when they are lined at 56% of the time or lower so we get that same line value that the book gets. WE all, the books and us know, we can win or lose every game but with that little squeeze on the number we will make money MOST of the time. AKA CLV
the real competition is US against the not smart US, the book is just the middleman. WE dont beat the book we beat the guy who doesnt know shit and says I will take the Yankees cause they are good against lefties or I like that horse because he wears blinders, or the yankees won 10 in a row they will win tonight. See the bettors that are in the know here. They dont say any of that because it is your money they are winning not the books, dont get that confused. they sit in the weeds and wait for you to over value a game and as soon as you do they pounce. They have very good reasons for not teaching. keeping everything vague, not sharing much other than the basic, dont bet big faves or bet road teams. They all know and will take any bet at any line at any location if they think there is value. CLV comes from the people betting the game wrong and as you and i both know that is noobs or just bad bettors.
Great job in WNBA. How are you much more successful in WNBA than MLB?
Keep up the good work. I've been tailing your last 20 plays or so.
I am more lucky in the WNBA! AKA Variance
In WNBA I should win about 54% and I pay roughly 52% but winning 63%
in MLB I should win 49% of the time and I am paying 49% but winning 47%
both will eventually even out even though I do have a slightly larger line value in the WNBA but I also have one extra season of experience in basketball modeling. I bet by next year the baskets and baseball will even out! Thanks for the support and I wish you good luck, any questions just ask
the real competition is US against the not smart US, the book is just the middleman. WE dont beat the book we beat the guy who doesnt know shit and says I will take the Yankees cause they are good against lefties or I like that horse because he wears blinders, or the yankees won 10 in a row they will win tonight. See the bettors that are in the know here. They dont say any of that because it is your money they are winning not the books, dont get that confused. they sit in the weeds and wait for you to over value a game and as soon as you do they pounce. They have very good reasons for not teaching. keeping everything vague, not sharing much other than the basic, dont bet big faves or bet road teams. They all know and will take any bet at any line at any location if they think there is value. CLV comes from the people betting the game wrong and as you and i both know that is noobs or just bad bettors.
Well thanks for your plays. Ill just keep watching and tailing!
I am taking the Aces +5 right now for BOL opener money and I will put my official picks out tomorrow AM once limits go up, just wanted to say I am taking Aces +5 now, I got the Sky -2
Good Luck. I have nothing to discuss about your post. I'll leave it at that because I know you don't like when I'm rude. I will put you on ignore because listening to you gives me a headache.
Keep up the good work buddy, ignore the trolls...you are honest & are putting up great numbers on this board
of course I am not counting the Aces win because I was just giving a heads up I was playing it and did not say it was part of my plays, I hope that complies with the site posting guidelines if not please let me know.
of course I am not counting the Aces win because I was just giving a heads up I was playing it and did not say it was part of my plays, I hope that complies with the site posting guidelines if not please let me know.
48-24-2 Units +21.6 before 7-11 Games
I took the liberty of tailing all 3 plays. Thanks!
I am taking the Aces +5 right now for BOL opener money and I will put my official picks out tomorrow AM once limits go up, just wanted to say I am taking Aces +5 now, I got the Sky -2
Dan, I do not understand the play I see you took the Aces +5, then it says you have the Sky -2 were you playing a middle. Thank You for posting your plays.
I believe he made the line sky-2, so that's why he bet Aces +5.
this is correct, sorry I know I write horrible. I think sometimes my brain thinks at speed 8 and my fingers type at 3 and the result is confusing! Yes I made the line at Aces +2 (or Sky -2) and that would make me play Aces +5 because that is where the value was, thanks guys!
If you want to post games multiple times, then youd need to count it as a multi-unit play (and keep both a weighted and unweighted record). And the first time you played it would count towards the unweighted record.
For the sake of what youre trying to do, Id probably recommend just posting each game once as an actual play, and then just comment if there was a game that you also liked at Pinny. I highly doubt that anyone looking to follow you at this time will run into issues with limits, so even just sticking with BOL is likely enough.
I was wondering if I did it correctly with the Aces play, I noticed you said it would not matter but I dont want to violate posting guidelines, as we can see because of my poor writing skills I am creating confusion with this method. I really would appreciate some clarity on this, thank you!
48-26-2 Units +19.4 before 7-12 Games
I did not like that games start 20 minutes after lines come out, that kinda messed me up but not I would have changed my picks!
No I stopped posting picks for awhile, I dont plan on being a tout and really dont see the point. I will still be active on the forum though, hopefully I can pick up some good advice here! Good luck.
No I stopped posting picks for awhile, I dont plan on being a tout and really dont see the point. I will still be active on the forum though, hopefully I can pick up some good advice here! Good luck.
How are we supposed to know if you have a good model?
No I stopped posting picks for awhile, I dont plan on being a tout and really dont see the point. I will still be active on the forum though, hopefully I can pick up some good advice here! Good luck.
Well Ill keep an eye on Kashmir to see if he can continue to build off his nice start, and tail whatever summer league picks Old-Timer comes out with, but other than that Im dead in the water until NBA preseason...
Comments
So, are you able to estimate, given that CLV, what your win rate would be expected to be over the course of 1000 games?
Thanks!
Great job in WNBA. How are you much more successful in WNBA than MLB?
Keep up the good work. I've been tailing your last 20 plays or so.
No, I dont have a full understanding of what CLV is. Up to this point I have been arriving at the conclusion that CLV is a shorthand tool to help determine an expected long term win rate without having to actually run through a large number of games for verification.
assume its -107 which is what I bet at even though some plays are higher and lower
1000 games
-107 I will win 500 netting me 1050 Units and bet 1070 netting me -20 units
now lets assume I am beating the line by 2.8% more than that so I am closing at 54.59%
so at -120 I am winning 528 games 1109 Units and bet 1070 so I will net 39 Units
I am right now winning at 64% and in reality with that clv I should be winning at 52.79%
so yes lots of that is variance but IF it could somehow stay like it is it would still be a winner with the variance.
Awesome job man. My favorite part is not only is your record killing it, your CLV is too. People here give you a bunch of shit which is silly, but when push comes to shove cant argue with 46-24 +19.6 and solid CLV. Theyd be blowing others with that record.
I remember and been playing the whole time. You can see youve been learning based on your posts from when you joined until now. Ill take a guy like you thats hungry and humble vs some arrogant asshole that just spews the same old bullshit. I honestly admire your courage and Im glad youre doing well. Im not a big poster but Im always happy to see you killing it.
very rarely can you trust win loss records. WL even over the long term is suspect without line value. The problem with win loss is the standard deviation. Most guys who win a ton of games think they are onto something but in reality it can just be deviation. CLV is similar in it "could" be deviation but it has a sharper measuring stick.
W-L is a simple 13 wins 10 losses
where CLV grinds down a little closer with a very small percentage and that is ground down even tighter with a margin
CLV is what the books live off of.
They say the Yankees will win 58% of the time and so they set the line as if they will win 60% of the time and of course you pay to win 60% of the time and the Yankees really win 58% of the time. Sometimes WL at the book doesn't look good but that line value with enough games will show its head.
So for line value we do the opposite we say the Yankees are gonna win 58% of the time and we only bet when they are lined at 56% of the time or lower so we get that same line value that the book gets. WE all, the books and us know, we can win or lose every game but with that little squeeze on the number we will make money MOST of the time. AKA CLV
I am more lucky in the WNBA! AKA Variance
In WNBA I should win about 54% and I pay roughly 52% but winning 63%
in MLB I should win 49% of the time and I am paying 49% but winning 47%
both will eventually even out even though I do have a slightly larger line value in the WNBA but I also have one extra season of experience in basketball modeling. I bet by next year the baskets and baseball will even out! Thanks for the support and I wish you good luck, any questions just ask
Well thanks for your plays. Ill just keep watching and tailing!
Keep up the good work buddy, ignore the trolls...you are honest & are putting up great numbers on this board
LA Sparks+3
48-24-2 Units +21.6 before 7-11 Games
I took the liberty of tailing all 3 plays. Thanks!
Atlanta U164
Indiana O155.5
Dan, I do not understand the play I see you took the Aces +5, then it says you have the Sky -2 were you playing a middle. Thank You for posting your plays.
this is correct, sorry I know I write horrible. I think sometimes my brain thinks at speed 8 and my fingers type at 3 and the result is confusing! Yes I made the line at Aces +2 (or Sky -2) and that would make me play Aces +5 because that is where the value was, thanks guys!
- - - Updated - - -
I was wondering if I did it correctly with the Aces play, I noticed you said it would not matter but I dont want to violate posting guidelines, as we can see because of my poor writing skills I am creating confusion with this method. I really would appreciate some clarity on this, thank you!
I did not like that games start 20 minutes after lines come out, that kinda messed me up but not I would have changed my picks!
No I stopped posting picks for awhile, I dont plan on being a tout and really dont see the point. I will still be active on the forum though, hopefully I can pick up some good advice here! Good luck.
How are we supposed to know if you have a good model?
Well Ill keep an eye on Kashmir to see if he can continue to build off his nice start, and tail whatever summer league picks Old-Timer comes out with, but other than that Im dead in the water until NBA preseason...