well profitability to clv is a big argument at least for me
I am not 100% sure that line value relates to profits but here is my weak attempt at explaining my Hypo behind the idea
I bet at -105 so if we assume the closing line is effecient that would imply I will win 51.22% of the time minus juice I will win 50% of the time
so if I bet 100 games for 1.05 units to win 1 at even closing of -105 I will win 102.5 units and bet 105 units so net -2.5 units
now lets assume i bet 100 games at -105 that close at -118 I will win 108.87 units and bet 105 for a net of +3.87 Units
this assumes there is zero variance and the closing line is effecient.
well profitability to clv is a big argument at least for me
I am not 100% sure that line value relates to profits but here is my weak attempt at explaining my Hypo behind the idea
I bet at -105 so if we assume the closing line is effecient that would imply I will win 51.22% of the time minus juice I will win 50% of the time
so if I bet 100 games for 1.05 units to win 1 at even closing of -105 I will win 102.5 units and bet 105 units so net -2.5 units
now lets assume i bet 100 games at -105 that close at -118 I will win 108.87 units and bet 105 for a net of +3.87 Units
this assumes there is zero variance and the closing line is effecient.
Don't know about the projections of your figures but definitely seems about right based on my native intelligence and experience with line moves. I'd be willing to take my chances.
if anyone has any insight to this that would be greatly appreciated, especially if my calculations are not accurate, I would love to get them corrected if that is true
you got lucky they had a 18 point lead with 60 seconds left and they shot 5 times on 5 possessions in that minute, not one time were they fouled they ran down and shot as fast as they could maybe trying to wear out players or see if they can injury a star, SMH dont make no sense!
I use a comparative analysis approach to setting my lines, adjusting for player injuries and once I create "my line". I look at the posted lines and pick sides when they are more than 2.5 off my line and 2 off on sides I bet. I built a really nice team player weight system that gives me a percentage of the team a player is for example team A has a team score of say 850 an 85 rated player would be 10% and essentially that would mean about 2-3 points off the side and about half that on the total. I do not adjust for defensive focused players ( something I am considering doing if I can find an accurate value) and that is it.
so example Lakers are -3 on my model it needs to be -1 or more to bet them and for for sides if its 150 it needs to be 153 or 147 or more to bet it. I dont count any streaks or last game wins or anything like that, I have not seen any value in past testing that matches that.
i make the bet at 2 and 2.5 because of all the past games I ran the model on I am averaging way less than 2 or 2.5 which tells me if I got X it will be within 2 or 2.5 of it so if its 4 off it will probably come down to 3 or less, if that makes sense. every single play I play is done just like that. I dont have any personal favorite team or home or away or anything that can trigger a bet. I also before I bet anything if the line is off I always try to justify the error on my model and see if I missed somethign BEFORE I bet.
I have been using the bet as soon as the limits move up for WNBA most sites dont really have a limit that goes higher on the little WNBA so I just bet at 9amish as soon as lines are out.
I dont bet on wind conditions, guy is good at shooting 3s right now or any of that type stuff. I dont believe I have any handicapping skills to do any personal adjustments for anything. I do nothing with pace or any of that to try and determine probability of an outcome. I bet solely with one intention and that is guessing the closing line and trying to be right more times than wrong and hope for positive line value at the end.
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and I do basically that same thing for all the sports I do including MLB, CFL, WNBA and the NBA
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I never ever try and analyze ground ball to fly ball or good against righties or lefties and all the other stuff I read on here because I am assuming most of that information is already built in the line. I mean Scherzer is not -300 because of his uniform color.
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any questions, comments or needing of clarity because I write like a 3 year old and it might be hard to understand, I am glad to discuss and try to explain, good luck to all! I really do hope everyone wins, I just think they need to know that most of the things they think matter are in the line already.
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and most people I read their picks and they dont give me the impression that they are setting lines and not setting lines is a deadly mistake in this game, I do know that for sure! if you think scherzer is going to win today you cannot should not bet unless you know what the probability of him doing that is because the margin will get you if you dont!
Good Luck. I have nothing to discuss about your post. I'll leave it at that because I know you don't like when I'm rude. I will put you on ignore because listening to you gives me a headache.
oh please be rude or nice say what you can. I would be more than willing to discuss anything. What I do is completely different from what anyone I met that bets seriously does, if you think its flawed please tell me where and why?
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or if any of your followers have comment please feel free, I will not get my feelings hurt trust me. this could be productive for all
oh please be rude or nice say what you can. I would be more than willing to discuss anything. What I do is completely different from what anyone I met that bets seriously does, if you think its flawed please tell me where and why?
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or if any of your followers have comment please feel free, I will not get my feelings hurt trust me. this could be productive for all
Nice work danshan. As of tonight you not only won back the entire 40 bucks you lost me last year, but tailing you has been put me an additional 14 Bucks ahead for the entire period covering the last 13 months or so, including both last years MLB bets and this years WNBA bets. (Would have been $24 bucks ahead if I hadnt been late for one of the winning bets on June 26.)
Now Im feeling like, if you are going to continue hitting WNBA predictions at a 65% rate, it seems kind of foolish of me to only be betting10$ a pop...
Nice work danshan. As of tonight you not only won back the entire 40 bucks you lost me last year, but tailing you has been put me an additional 14 Bucks ahead for the entire period covering the last 13 months or so, including both last years MLB bets and this years WNBA bets. (Would have been $24 bucks ahead if I hadnt been late for one of the winning bets on June 26.)
Now Im feeling like, if you are going to continue hitting WNBA predictions at a 65% rate, it seems kind of foolish of me to only be betting10$ a pop...
Well Rook sounds like you do a couple things right
1 Tailing a guy giving you a 30-40% ROI
2 Betting with a very (unless you are from the Congo) tight gambling budget (especially smart) was it Einstein that said "the best throw you can make with the dice is throw them in the trash or something like that"
Also the 64% win rate is probably luck, I know for sure wins and losses can be luck
but I think these stats possibly give a different image
2017 NBA +2.89% CLV
2018 MLB +.47% CLV since my mod on 6-12 been +1.36% CLV
2018 WNBA (same Model as my 17NBA) +2.93% CLV
I am not sure but from what I understand line value like this is probably not luck. Also remember this is my first year, I hope my models gain a little weight because they are built to learn and adjust accordingly.
Anyway good luck and I wish you success. Please any questions or anything I can do to help you in anyway just let me know!
Good Luck. I have nothing to discuss about your post. I'll leave it at that because I know you don't like when I'm rude. I will put you on ignore because listening to you gives me a headache.
your silence means everything if you had even one tiny thing to say you would scream from the rooftops to make your groupies happy and get some thanks! I wish you the best of luck!
Comments
I am not 100% sure that line value relates to profits but here is my weak attempt at explaining my Hypo behind the idea
I bet at -105 so if we assume the closing line is effecient that would imply I will win 51.22% of the time minus juice I will win 50% of the time
so if I bet 100 games for 1.05 units to win 1 at even closing of -105 I will win 102.5 units and bet 105 units so net -2.5 units
now lets assume i bet 100 games at -105 that close at -118 I will win 108.87 units and bet 105 for a net of +3.87 Units
this assumes there is zero variance and the closing line is effecient.
Don't know about the projections of your figures but definitely seems about right based on my native intelligence and experience with line moves. I'd be willing to take my chances.
Atlanta U157 -124
Lynx -12.5
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Argh never mind game already started...
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35-21-2 Units +11.9 before 6-30 games
Dallas U168 +106
Las Vegas U162
New York +3.5
Chicago U166.5
Seattle -3.5
Lynx -14
wish I could have caught that game under 161.5 and I have no idea what happened to the Lynx they must already be on 4th of July vacation.
Chicago U172
Connecticut +6.5
Storm -3
Storm O157
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I bet and the line moved but its good to go until -4 and 159
Las Vegas Aces O167
so example Lakers are -3 on my model it needs to be -1 or more to bet them and for for sides if its 150 it needs to be 153 or 147 or more to bet it. I dont count any streaks or last game wins or anything like that, I have not seen any value in past testing that matches that.
i make the bet at 2 and 2.5 because of all the past games I ran the model on I am averaging way less than 2 or 2.5 which tells me if I got X it will be within 2 or 2.5 of it so if its 4 off it will probably come down to 3 or less, if that makes sense. every single play I play is done just like that. I dont have any personal favorite team or home or away or anything that can trigger a bet. I also before I bet anything if the line is off I always try to justify the error on my model and see if I missed somethign BEFORE I bet.
I have been using the bet as soon as the limits move up for WNBA most sites dont really have a limit that goes higher on the little WNBA so I just bet at 9amish as soon as lines are out.
I dont bet on wind conditions, guy is good at shooting 3s right now or any of that type stuff. I dont believe I have any handicapping skills to do any personal adjustments for anything. I do nothing with pace or any of that to try and determine probability of an outcome. I bet solely with one intention and that is guessing the closing line and trying to be right more times than wrong and hope for positive line value at the end.
- - - Updated - - -
and I do basically that same thing for all the sports I do including MLB, CFL, WNBA and the NBA
- - - Updated - - -
I never ever try and analyze ground ball to fly ball or good against righties or lefties and all the other stuff I read on here because I am assuming most of that information is already built in the line. I mean Scherzer is not -300 because of his uniform color.
- - - Updated - - -
any questions, comments or needing of clarity because I write like a 3 year old and it might be hard to understand, I am glad to discuss and try to explain, good luck to all! I really do hope everyone wins, I just think they need to know that most of the things they think matter are in the line already.
- - - Updated - - -
and most people I read their picks and they dont give me the impression that they are setting lines and not setting lines is a deadly mistake in this game, I do know that for sure! if you think scherzer is going to win today you cannot should not bet unless you know what the probability of him doing that is because the margin will get you if you dont!
- - - Updated - - -
or if any of your followers have comment please feel free, I will not get my feelings hurt trust me. this could be productive for all
Nice work danshan. As of tonight you not only won back the entire 40 bucks you lost me last year, but tailing you has been put me an additional 14 Bucks ahead for the entire period covering the last 13 months or so, including both last years MLB bets and this years WNBA bets. (Would have been $24 bucks ahead if I hadnt been late for one of the winning bets on June 26.)
Now Im feeling like, if you are going to continue hitting WNBA predictions at a 65% rate, it seems kind of foolish of me to only be betting10$ a pop...
Dream U161
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Washington O167.5
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44-24-2 Units +17.6 before 7-8 Games
Well Rook sounds like you do a couple things right
1 Tailing a guy giving you a 30-40% ROI
2 Betting with a very (unless you are from the Congo) tight gambling budget (especially smart) was it Einstein that said "the best throw you can make with the dice is throw them in the trash or something like that"
Also the 64% win rate is probably luck, I know for sure wins and losses can be luck
but I think these stats possibly give a different image
2017 NBA +2.89% CLV
2018 MLB +.47% CLV since my mod on 6-12 been +1.36% CLV
2018 WNBA (same Model as my 17NBA) +2.93% CLV
I am not sure but from what I understand line value like this is probably not luck. Also remember this is my first year, I hope my models gain a little weight because they are built to learn and adjust accordingly.
Anyway good luck and I wish you success. Please any questions or anything I can do to help you in anyway just let me know!
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your silence means everything if you had even one tiny thing to say you would scream from the rooftops to make your groupies happy and get some thanks! I wish you the best of luck!