TommyL's 2018 Soccer Plays
TommyL
Super Moderator
Behind schedule vs. the last few World Cups due to life getting in the way (new job, travel, coaching son's soccer team, kids in general). Took some time off, but back into it over the past several weeks as I've been gearing up for Russia 2018 (the USA debacle probably contributed to my difficulty getting started with everything). I should finish up my initial plays in the next few hours, and will throw them into this thread.
Below is a link to my 2017 thread. Ended up +44.735 units with an ROI of 15.8%.
http://www.bettingtalk.com/forum/showthread.php/180208-TommyL-s-2017-Soccer-Plays?highlight=Tommyl+2017+soccer
Below is a link to my 2017 thread. Ended up +44.735 units with an ROI of 15.8%.
http://www.bettingtalk.com/forum/showthread.php/180208-TommyL-s-2017-Soccer-Plays?highlight=Tommyl+2017+soccer
Comments
Russia doesn't advance from Group A (+255 @ 5Dimes) 1.5 units to win 3.825 units
Egypt wins Group A (+575 @ 5Dimes) 1 unit to win 5.75 units
Iran advances from Group B (+700 @ 5Dimes) .5 units to win 3.5 units
Spain wins group B (-195 @ Bookmaker) 1.95 units to win 1 unit
Peru wins Group C (+1024 @ Bookmaker) .5 units to win 5.12 units
Peru advances from Group C (+220 @ 5Dimes) 2 units to win 4.4 units
Denmark doesn't win Group C (-590 @ 5Dimes) 2.36 units to win .4 units
Argentina wins Group D (-149 @ Bookmaker) 1.49 units to win 1 unit
Costa Rica wins Group E (+1998 @ Bookmaker) .2 units to win 3.996 units
Costa Rica advances from Group E (+400 @ 5Dimes) .5 units to win 2 units
Germany wins Group F (-235 @ Bookmaker) 2.35 units to win 1 unit
South Korea doesn't advance from Group F (-450 @ 5Dimes) 2.25 units to win .5 units
Panama advances from Group G (+1100 @ 5Dimes) .2 units to win 2.2 units
Belgium wins Group G (-115 @ Bookmaker) 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Colombia wins Group H (+135 @ Bookmaker) 1 unit to win 1.35 units
Japan advances from Group H (+230 @ 5Dimes) 1.5 units to win 3.45 units
Poland doesn't advance from Group H (+150 @ 5Dimes) 2 units to win 3 units
Saudi Arabia/Russia under 2.5 (-134 @ 5Dimes) 2.68 units to win 2 units
Egypt +.5 Uruguay (+122 @ 5Dimes) 1 unit to win 1.22 units
Iran +.5 Morocco (-149 @ 5Dimes) 1.49 units to win 1 unit
Portugal/Spain over 2.5 (+132 @ 5Dimes) 1 unit to win 1.32 units
France -1.5 Australia (-130 @ 5Dimes) 1.95 units to win 1.5 units
Peru -.5 Denmark (+268 @ Bookmaker) 1 unit to win 2.68 units
Costa Rica +.5 Serbia (-115 @ 5Dimes) 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Sweden -.5 South Korea (+118 @ 5Dimes) 1.5 units to win 1.77 units
GL. I'll actually be on vacation in Alaska for the entire group stage and honestly can't say I'd be following it as closely as usual anyway.
Top Goalscorer - Timo Werner (+1600 @ 5Dimes) .4 units to win 6.4 units
Top Goalscorer - Mohamed Salah (+4000 @ 5Dimes) .15 units to win 6 units
Saudi Arabia +.5 Greece (-161) 1.61 units to win 1 unit
Egypt -.5 Kuwait (-106) 1.06 units to win 1 unit
A lot of people seem to like them from what Im hearing, but Im not as high on them. If anything, Ill probably be fading them some if the current prices hold.
2:30PM
91660.
Gimn?stic Tarragona
-1 +112
-164
O 2? -107
Props
15826.
Huesca
+1 -126
+450
U 2? -101
15827.
Draw
+275
Any team with a midfield of Modric, Rakitic, Kovacic and Perisic (or a combination thereof) with Mandzukic, Kramaric and Kalinic (or a combination thereof) in attack is going to be a live-side. They won their group at Euro 2016 by beating Spain and Turkey. They would have very probably made it to the Final Four if not for the bonkers 3-3 draw by Hungary and Portugal, which got them an early look at Portugal in the round of 16 where they lost After Extra Time by a 117th minute goal by Cuaresma.
Looking at their group in Russia, they have a very good chance of finishing 2nd or 1st. Group D is pitted vs Group C in the round of 16 which would see them play either France/ Australia/Peru or Denmark. A match vs France would be very difficult to win, all the others they 'd be favorites against.
So yes, in my opinion they're a live side, but it's going to be very difficult for them to reach the semi-finals. I would want to see how they get through the friendlies in the coming weeks. How tired are their players, how many injuries do they have, how is the coach's tactics holding up? Then I might bet them.
I don't cap anything on the pro side, outside of some CONCACAF Champions League stuff and a rare future or friendly where I think I found an edge. Certainly don't think I'd ever have an edge in a game as big as today's (though glad I'm watching, as the Salah injury was enough to push me towards Uruguay who I was already on the fence with playing).
Monday, 5/28
Portugal -1 Tunisia (-158) 1.58 units to win 1 unit
Ireland/France over 2.5 (-118) 1.18 units to win 1 unit
USA -1 Bolivia (-138) 1.38 units to win 1 unit
Saudi Arabia +2 Italy (-115) 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Tuesday, 5/29
Peru -1, -1.5 Scotland (-123) 2.46 units to win 2 units
Wednesday, 5/30
Japan -.5 Ghana (-120) 1.2 units to win 1 unit
Portugal -1.5 Tunisia (+147) 1 unit to win 1.47 units
Peru +.5 Denmark (-128) 1.28 units to win 1 unit
Chile/Romania over 2.5 (+117) 1 unit to win 1.17 units
Senegal -1.5 Luxembourg (+122) 1.5 units to win 1.83 units
Friday (6/1)
Colombia -.5, -1 Egypt (-135) 1.35 units to win 1 unit
Saturday (6/2)
Iceland -.5 Norway (+109) 1 unit to win 1.09 units
Mexico -.5 Scotland (-353) 1.765 units to win .5 units
Belgium -1, -1.5 Egypt (-117) 1.17 units to win 1 unit
Panama +1 Norway (-156) 1.56 units to win 1 unit
Thursday (6/7)
Costa Rica/England under 3 (-169) 1.69 units to win 1 unit
Portugal -1 Algeria (-148) 2.22 units to win 1.5 units
Iceland -.5 Ghana (+124) 1 unit to win 1.24 units
Friday (6/8)
Saudi Arabia/Germany under 3.5 (-103) 1.03 units to win 1 unit
Russia under 5.5 points (-127) 1.27 units to win 1 unit
Morocco under 2.5 points (+115) 1 unit to win 1.15 units
Denmark under 3.5 points (+170) 1 unit to win 1.7 units
Costa Rica over 1.5 points (-113) 1.13 units to win 1 unit
South Korea under 2.5 points (-137) 2.055 units to win 1.5 units
Poland under 4.5 points (-109) 1.09 units to win 1 unit
Best European Team - Germany (+275) 1 unit to win 2.75 units
Best Asian Team - Saudi Arabia (+1000) .5 units to win 5 units
Best CONCACAF Team - Costa Rica (+325) 1 unit to win 3.25 units
Portugal to reach the Semifinal (+420) 1 unit to win 4.2 units
Portugal to reach the Quarters (+130) 1 unit to win 1.3 units
Egypt/Russia under 2 (+116) 1 unit to win 1.16 units
Portugal -.5 Morocco (-155) 1.55 units to win 1 unit
Portugal -1 Morocco (+125) 1 unit to win 1.25 units
Argentina -.5 Croatia (-108) 1.08 units to win 1 unit
Colombia E Poland (-138) 2.76 units to win 2 units
Saturday, 6/9
Spain -.5 Tunisia (-307) 1.535 units to win .5 units
Portugal HT/Portugal FT (+100) 1 unit to win 1 unit
Solid win,
game became a joke at the end,
but I really liked their passing, strategy of keeping the field wide, very crisp and quick one-touch passing, always looking to go in the direction of the opponent goal. This team is playing at a very good level.
Any future World Cup plays? Thoughts on Uraguay winning their group and Saidia Arabia Under 2 points?
A good chunk of this thread is World Cup plays...as with anything, those really come down to the price. I think the current prices that I see on Uruguay are about right (I did play them at -105 a few weeks ago, but they'd be tougher to play in that -135 or -140 range). For Saudi Arabia, I thought about playing them over 1.5 points (+175), but ultimately decided to pass. I don't think there is value in fading them, since I have major questions about the rest of the group (not that there aren't questions about Saudi Arabia too).
I'm liking their path to the quarters with their current form (looked sharp today, and an impressive draw in Brussels last week). I hate everything about Group A, so being in Group B is a big advantage for them come the round of 16.
1st half Serbia -.5 Bolivia (-108) 1.08 units to win 1 unit
Germany will reach the Semifinal (+107) 1.5 units to win 1.605 units
Croatia won't reach Quarterfinal (-255) 2.55 units to win 1 unit
Germany is Highest Scoring Team (+450) .5 units to win 2.25 units
South Korea is Lowest scoring Team (+1200) .5 units to win 6 units
Russia is Lowest Scoring Team (+6600) .1 units to win 6.6 units
Russia doesn't advance from Group A (+255) 1.5 units to win 3.825 units
Russia under 5.5 points (-127) 1.27 units to win 1 unit
Egypt wins Group A (+575) 1 unit to win 5.75 units
Uruguay to win Group A (-105) 1.575 units to win 1.5 units
Iran advances from Group B (+700) .5 units to win 3.5 units
Spain wins group B (-195) 1.95 units to win 1 unit
Morocco under 2.5 points (+115) 1 unit to win 1.15 units
Peru wins Group C (+1024) .5 units to win 5.12 units
Peru advances from Group C (+220) 2 units to win 4.4 units
Denmark doesn't win Group C (-590) 2.36 units to win .4 units
Denmark under 3.5 points (+170) 1 unit to win 1.7 units
Argentina wins Group D (-149) 1.49 units to win 1 unit
Costa Rica wins Group E (+1998) .2 units to win 3.996 units
Costa Rica advances from Group E (+400) .5 units to win 2 units
Costa Rica over 1.5 points (-113) 1.13 units to win 1 unit
Germany wins Group F (-235) 2.35 units to win 1 unit
South Korea doesn't advance from Group F (-450) 2.25 units to win .5 units
South Korea under 2.5 points (-137) 2.055 units to win 1.5 units
Panama advances from Group G (+1100) .2 units to win 2.2 units
Belgium wins Group G (-115) 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Colombia wins Group H (+135) 1 unit to win 1.35 units
Japan advances from Group H (+230) 1.5 units to win 3.45 units
Poland doesn't advance from Group H (+150) 2 units to win 3 units
Poland under 4.5 points (-109) 1.09 units to win 1 unit
Saudi Arabia/Russia under 2.5 (-134) 2.68 units to win 2 units
Egypt +.5 Uruguay (+122) 1 unit to win 1.22 units
Iran +.5 Morocco (-149) 1.49 units to win 1 unit
Portugal/Spain over 2.5 (+132) 1 unit to win 1.32 units
France -1.5 Australia (-130) 1.95 units to win 1.5 units
Peru -.5 Denmark (+268) 1 unit to win 2.68 units
Peru +.5 Denmark (-128) 1.28 units to win 1 unit
Costa Rica +.5 Serbia (-115) 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Sweden -.5 South Korea (+118) 1.5 units to win 1.77 units
Egypt/Russia under 2 (+116) 1 unit to win 1.16 units
Portugal -.5 Morocco (-155) 1.55 units to win 1 unit
Portugal -1 Morocco (+125) 1 unit to win 1.25 units
Argentina -.5 Croatia (-108) 1.08 units to win 1 unit
Colombia E Poland (-138) 2.76 units to win 2 units
Top Goalscorer - Timo Werner (+1600) .4 units to win 6.4 units
Top Goalscorer - Mohamed Salah (+4000) .15 units to win 6 units
Best European Team - Germany (+275) 1 unit to win 2.75 units
Best Asian Team - Saudi Arabia (+1000) .5 units to win 5 units
Best CONCACAF Team - Costa Rica (+325) 1 unit to win 3.25 units
Portugal to reach the Semifinal (+420) 1 unit to win 4.2 units
Portugal to reach the Quarters (+130) 1 unit to win 1.3 units
Germany will reach the Semifinal (+107) 1.5 units to win 1.605 units
Croatia won't reach Quarterfinal (-255) 2.55 units to win 1 unit
Germany is Highest Scoring Team (+450) .5 units to win 2.25 units
South Korea is Lowest scoring Team (+1200) .5 units to win 6 units
Russia is Lowest Scoring Team (+6600) .1 units to win 6.6 units