Betting Talk

TommyL's 2018 Soccer Plays

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Comments

  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    i took mexico for kicks, pun intended
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    Sweden under 1 goal (-155) 1.55 units to win 1 unit
  • samsarmysamsarmy Junior Member
    edited June 2018
    Tommy, I didn't want to clutter your thread any more than it has been but I wanted to say thanks for taking the time to post. I always tail everything and know posting is a thankless endeavor. It looks like the majority of the futures wagers this tourney won't pan out but that's the way it goes sometimes. Here's to better luck in the knockout rounds as I'm sure there will still be some good betting opportunities.
  • sigmansigman Junior Member
    edited June 2018
    Tommy-So close to putting a wager on pannama +1550. It’s more a play against england, as I am not impressed with their team and first match. Suckers bet or serious value?
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    Update heading into the last wave of group stage games...

    Updated YTD Result: -8.385 units (ROI: -8.5%)

    Pending plays:

    Uruguay to win Group A (-105) 1.575 units to win 1.5 units
    Iran advances from Group B (+700) .5 units to win 3.5 units
    Spain wins group B (-195) 1.95 units to win 1 unit
    Morocco under 2.5 points (+115) 1 unit to win 1.15 units
    Morocco last in Group B (+170) 1 unit to win 1.7 units
    Denmark doesn't win Group C (-590) 2.36 units to win .4 units
    Costa Rica over 1.5 points (-113) 1.13 units to win 1 unit
    Germany wins Group F (-235) 2.35 units to win 1 unit
    South Korea doesn't advance from Group F (-450) 2.25 units to win .5 units
    South Korea under 2.5 points (-137) 2.055 units to win 1.5 units
    South Korea last in Group F (-130) 1.3 units to win 1 unit
    Belgium wins Group G (-115) 1.15 units to win 1 unit
    Colombia wins Group H (+135) 1 unit to win 1.35 units
    Japan advances from Group H (+230) 1.5 units to win 3.45 units

    Russia/Uruguay under 2 (+109) 2 units to win 2.18 units
    Peru -.5 Australia (+110) 1 unit to win 1.1 units
    Germany -1.5 South Korea (-138)** 2.76 units to win 2 units
    Belgium/England under 2.5 (-115) 2.3 units to win 2 units
    Belgium/England to draw (+240) 1 unit to win 2.4 units

    Top Goalscorer - Timo Werner (+1600) .4 units to win 6.4 units
    Top Goalscorer - Mohamed Salah (+4000) .15 units to win 6 units
    Best European Team - Germany (+275) 1 unit to win 2.75 units
    Best Asian Team - Saudi Arabia (+1000) .5 units to win 5 units
    Best Asian Team - Iran (+300) 1 unit to win 3 units
    Portugal to reach the Semifinal (+420) 1 unit to win 4.2 units
    Portugal to reach the Quarters (+130) 1 unit to win 1.3 units
    Germany will reach the Semifinal (+107) 1.5 units to win 1.605 units
    Croatia won't reach Quarterfinal (-255) 2.55 units to win 1 unit
    Germany is Highest Scoring Team (+450) .5 units to win 2.25 units
    South Korea is Lowest scoring Team (+1200) .5 units to win 6 units
    Colombia over 5 total goals (-130) 1.3 units to win 1 unit
    Total Tournament Corner Kicks - Over 660.5 (+170) 1 unit to win 1.7 units
    Total Tournament Bookings - Under 230.5 (+135) 1 unit to win 1.35 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    Goes in 45 minutes...

    Nigeria under .5 goals (+145) 1 unit to win 1.45 units
    Paulo Dybala no goals scored (-285) 1.425 units to win .5 units
    Odion Ighalo no goals scored (-535) 1.605 units to win .3 units
    Simy Nwankwo no goals scored (-850) 1.7 units to win .2 units
    Alex Iwobi no goals scored (-885) 1.77 units to win .2 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    These go in 35 minutes...

    Sigurdarson Bjorn no goals scored (-515) 2.06 units to win .4 units
    Jon Dadi Bodvarsson no goals scored (-675) 2.025 units to win .3 units
    Rurik Gislason no goals scored (-1110) 2.22 units to win .2 units
    Kari Arnason no goals scored (-2250) 2.25 units to win .1 unit
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    Mexico doesn't advance from Group (+435) .5 units to win 2.175 units
    Panama +.5 Tunisia (+103) 1 unit to win 1.03 units
    Spain -.5 Russia (-157) 1.57 units to win 1 unit
    Denmark +.5 Croatia (+103) 1 unit to win 1.03 units
    France to advance (-155) 1.55 units to win 1 unit
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    Germany wins both halves (+145) 1 unit to win 1.45 units
    1st half - Germany 2 South Korea 0 (+445) .5 units to win 2.225 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    Exact score: Belgium 0 England 0 (+625) 1 unit to win 6.25 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    England/Belgium - no penalty kick awarded (-200) 1.5 units to win .75 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    Updated Result: -15.03 units (ROI: -9.7%)

    Pending plays:

    Portugal to reach the Semifinal (+420) 1 unit to win 4.2 units
    Portugal to reach the Quarters (+130) 1 unit to win 1.3 units
    Croatia won't reach Quarterfinal (-255) 2.55 units to win 1 unit
    Colombia over 5 total goals (-130) 1.3 units to win 1 unit
    Total Tournament Corner Kicks - Over 660.5 (+170) 1 unit to win 1.7 units
    Total Tournament Bookings - Under 230.5 (+135) 1 unit to win 1.35 units

    Spain -.5 Russia (-157) 1.57 units to win 1 unit
    Denmark +.5 Croatia (+103) 1 unit to win 1.03 units
    France to advance (-155) 1.55 units to win 1 unit
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2018
    France E Argentina (-153) 1.53 units to win 1 unit
    France HT/France FT (+330) 1 unit to win 3.3 units
    1st half France 2 Argentina 0 (+1400) .3 units to win 4.2 units

    Portugal scores 1st goal/no goals is a loss (+128) 1 unit to win 1.28 units
    Spain HT/Spain FT (+155) 1 unit to win 1.55 units
    Switzerland advances (-125) 1.25 units to win 1 unit
    Switzerland reaches semifinal (+400) 1 unit to win 4 units
    Colombia advances (+165) 1 unit to win 1.65
    Best South American team - Brazil (-120) 1.8 units to win 1.5 units
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    Tommy can you please help me with this question,I know there are a zillion factors but in general can you tell me what home field does to the money line in soccer generally, example NBA home game is 3 points to the line
    so
    3way
    team A is +140
    team B is +190
    draw is +235
    on a neutral field now what the lines be in GENERAL at team A's home field, I am asking mainly MLS but anythign will help thank you
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited July 2018
    I’m traveling and can’t get too detailed, but regardless, I don’t cap MLS and only follow it casually, so I can’t help much. In general though, I’d assume that HFA would vary widely in soccer based on the type of game, conditions, etc. (Bolivia playing a World Cup qualifier at 8k feet is a lot different than the Union hosting DC United in a US Open Cup game).
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    so there is no such thing as in general, thanks for the answer!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    rough as my grammar and spelling throw out a wild educated guess
    Toronto neutral field is +150
    so at home they would be -150ish?????
    thanks Tommy for the help, I tried to express super basic in general I am sure there are so many factors that even someone who does soccer like you knows them all but in general am I close????
    thanks again!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    what do you think of this?
    I took last 10 games for each MLS team averaged the home and away line
    home line avg all teams 1.95
    Away line avg all teams 4.29
    that seems hella extreme but does that make sense to you literally -200 difference between home and away??
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited August 2018
    2018 Result to date: -23.47 units (ROI: -13.2%)

    One club friendly for today that goes in an hour...

    Rennes +1 Borussia Dortmund (-111) 1.665 units to win 1.5 units

    Don't play more than 1-2 club games a year, but this is a nice spot...Rennes starts their season next week, while Dortmund still has three weeks to prepare. Dortmund is bringing their World Cup guys back into the fold so they have the bigger names on paper, but I expect Rennes to be sharper in their final tune-up.
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited August 2018
    TommyL wrote: »
    2018 Result to date: -23.47 units (ROI: -13.2%)

    One club friendly for today that goes in an hour...

    Rennes +1 Borussia Dortmund (-111) 1.665 units to win 1.5 units

    Don't play more than 1-2 club games a year, but this is a nice spot...Rennes starts their season next week, while Dortmund still has three weeks to prepare. Dortmund is bringing their World Cup guys back into the fold so they have the bigger names on paper, but I expect Rennes to be sharper in their final tune-up.

    91st minute penalty to cash this bet. Nice work Tommy
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited September 2018
    Goes in an hour, from 5Dimes...

    Denmark/Slovakia over 4.5 (-129) 1.29 units to win 1 unit
  • hornsfanhornsfan Senior Member
    edited March 2019
    Tommy, just curious, but did you start a thread for 2019 plays? using the search function and could not find anything. if not, any thoughts on tonight's match for the US?

    hope all is well
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited March 2019
    hornsfan wrote: »
    Tommy, just curious, but did you start a thread for 2019 plays? using the search function and could not find anything. if not, any thoughts on tonight's match for the US?

    hope all is well

    I haven't played anything at all this year, and have no thoughts on tonight. In fact, I didn't even watch or record the game on Thursday. Very unusual for me, but life has been crazy (work/traveling, coaching soccer, umpiring, getting ready to head down to Augusta in two weeks, and the NCAA tourney).

    Things should settle down in the next couple of months and I'll get back into it, but just been taking a break from the grind with everything else happening. Everything going great, but just not enough hours in a day. Which reminds me that I do need to get in and update my final records from 2018 when I have some time. But a very busy calendar on the soccer front this spring/summer, so I'll certainly be back at some point soon.

    Thanks.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited March 2019
    Glad to hear everything's going well.

    You didn't miss a ton on Thursday. Ecuador basically bunkered, US had pretty solid possession with very few chances and one fluke goal. Oh, and Weston McKennie turned his ankle pretty badly coming down from going up for a header and is out for a while.
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