Betting Talk

Punchline MLB Picks 18 BM openers, PS closers

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Comments

  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    lol no worries brother ,have no problem with anything your doing , just was wondering like goats did and am sure others why you replaced a selection...
    luck going forward
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Goats wrote: »
    Of course not. Was just curious b/c it doesn't seem very logical to be playing a game just b/c another was cancelled. Either you believe plays meet a certain threshold of +EV or you don't.

    on same day I dont see much of anything being positive EV, it is tougher than I thought, I think my big mouth wrote a check my skills cant cash!. But I will keep trying and I flat ass know it will improve!!!!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    2-5 -3.71 .79%
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Dbacks -117 1.17for1
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    maybe this can help, all you got to do is go to flie cllick make a copy and rename it and you can then make edits and add your games!

    I hope it helps
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zCiKo7oAMQEmwnsfZxNZJZDBfg4xNctC1Q3IoMKvvkU/edit?usp=sharing

    it has the 1 unit calculator too so you know how many units to put on your dogs if you are doing the fixed profit way!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Add on
    Marlins Urena +197 .51 for 1
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    3-6 -3.22U .04%CLV
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Dodgers (Ryu) -123 1.23for1 got it at -166
    Indians (Tomlin) -180 1.8for1 got it at -270

    I am not sure I am close on the line when it comes out but it seems like by morning I am like way way way off on a few games, most games I am very close and the few that are off are way off and are pulling farther off! LOTS OF WORK TO BE DONE!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Can anyone peak at my lines for tomorrow and tell me what you think, I need the help!

    4/11 AJ Cole Nationals -121
    4/11 German Marquez Rockies -185
    4/11 Johnny Cueto Giants 105
    4/11 Nick Pivetta Phillies 104
    4/11 Jon Lester Cubs -206
    4/11 Kyle Gibson Twins 118
    4/11 Danny Duffy Royals 109
    4/11 Carlos Carrasco Indians -190
    4/11 Kevin Gausman Orioles -118
    4/11 David Price Red Sox -117
    4/11 Alex Wood Dodgers -179

    any help, comments or suggestions on these would be awesome, thanks in advamce!
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    For a guy that's knowledgeable in currency and commodities are you jerking us all off? Last Tango.........
    danshan wrote: »
    Can anyone peak at my lines for tomorrow and tell me what you think, I need the help!

    4/11 AJ Cole Nationals -121 TOO CHEAP
    4/11 German Marquez Rockies -185 TOO HIGH
    4/11 Johnny Cueto Giants 105
    4/11 Nick Pivetta Phillies 104 Kidding right? TOO CHEAP
    4/11 Jon Lester Cubs -206 TOO HIGH
    4/11 Kyle Gibson Twins 118 WRONG CHALK
    4/11 Danny Duffy Royals 109 WRONG CHALK
    4/11 Carlos Carrasco Indians -190
    4/11 Kevin Gausman Orioles -118 WRONG CHALK
    4/11 David Price Red Sox -117
    4/11 Alex Wood Dodgers -179

    any help, comments or suggestions on these would be awesome, thanks in advamce!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Ronbets wrote: »
    For a guy that's knowledgeable in currency and commodities are you jerking us all off? Last Tango.........

    I am not sure what you mean by "jerking us off"?
    and I have no idea about currencies and commodities any better than the next currency loser, who loses to the margin!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    thanks for the replies on the lines, I think since the BOL openers come out they look pretty good to me! you think they should be much closer than this?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Hey Bucky Badger you think I should be closer than these numbers are in general, are you closer than the openers for tomorrow than my numbers?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    as of right now still waiting on bookmaker that makes some sig changes
    4/11 AJ Cole Nationals -121 TOO CHEAP 6 cents off
    4/11 German Marquez Rockies -185 TOO HIGH 12 cents off
    4/11 Johnny Cueto Giants 105 10 cents off
    4/11 Nick Pivetta Phillies 104 Kidding right? TOO CHEAP 12 cents off
    4/11 Jon Lester Cubs -206 TOO HIGH 11 cents off
    4/11 Kyle Gibson Twins 118 WRONG CHALK stupid on my part Astros are literally in space still
    4/11 Danny Duffy Royals 109 WRONG CHALK 11 cents off
    4/11 Carlos Carrasco Indians -190 should not be on here this game is dumb too
    4/11 Kevin Gausman Orioles -118 WRONG CHALK 8 cents off
    4/11 David Price Red Sox -117 12 cents off
    4/11 Alex Wood Dodgers -179 11 cents off

    I know these are just openers comparing to my guesses of what I think the close should be but I think they are very darn close, you mean you guys are closer than this? how close should I be????
  • BuckyBadgerBuckyBadger Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    Hey Bucky Badger you think I should be closer than these numbers are in general, are you closer than the openers for tomorrow than my numbers?

    No I don't think so--I'm closer on some, off more on others, as expected
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    10 being very close 1 being miles away what grade do you give me 1-10 on these?

    do you see a particular spot I am weak in, barely faves, big dogs, anything?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    please anybody give me something to work with, no comments barred, I can take it!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    also I know I am dumb but what does "wrong chalk" mean?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Results
    W-L 5-6
    Units -1.22
    CLV .22%

    Tigers +244 .41for1
    Reds +109 .91for1
    Rockies -147 1.47for1
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Record
    W-L 6-8
    Unit Count -1.54
    CLV .42%
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    No I don't think so--I'm closer on some, off more on others, as expected

    and how long have you been using that model and how has that model performed?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Padres +101
    Mariners +107
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    I like that you take dogs and short favorites and even though you said you would lay big numbers if you had an advantage , which i disagree with but whatever, dont fall into the trap of betting them, your not going to come out ahead in the long run.

    you can see that first hand looking at some of the picks guys are posting , they will be long gone come sept.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    thanks for the advice it really helps, my big issue is I am getting very close to closing on most games and the games I am wrong on are going against and not with me!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Record
    W-L 8-8
    Unit Count .45
    CLV .04%
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Orioles +143
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Record
    W-L 8-9
    Units -.25
    CLV .01%
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Brewers +179
    Mariners +109
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    like it , not the picks, you taking dogs....look around you , you are going to do well or at least better then someone that takes big big favorites ,
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    like it , not the picks, you taking dogs....look around you , you are going to do well or at least better then someone that takes big big favorites ,

    yeah but only way I am beating the lines is the overnights, this same day thing is killing my CLV!
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