Betting Talk

Running thread of my MLB Plays, good luck to all

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  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Capped Marlins/Orioles/Rockies/Indians/Phillies games but didn't see anything I liked. Lean over in Phillies/Braves I suppose. Will finish card in AM.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Record: 43-44 -2.04

    Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -115

    Toronto has some good lefty hitters out of the lineup in Donaldson and Morales but the other guys have been hitting well. Skoglund just can't get outs at the MLB level against anyone. He faced one of the worst hitting teams in the league last year in the best pitcher's park vs. the Padres and still didn't last 2 innings. The guy simply isn't ready for this level. The Royals should get a couple runs against Garcia but lack pop. Garcia is a solid pitcher with a good bullpen behind him. Skoglund is awful with a below average bullpen. Gotta think the Jays win big here, even without 2 of their better hitters.

    Slight lean to Royals in game 2 but I just don't know where Duffy is at. He had injuries in spring and pitched poorly, and he's been pitching like something is bothering him this year. If he was full strength I'd pull the trigger.

    Lean toward the o7.5 +100 in the Cards/Cubs game but laying off. Wind is blowing in at Wrigley which usually helps pitchers... nothing major but around 10 MPH so it helps the under a little. Wainwright and Chatwood are both guys that put too many people on base and I almost took this one. Chatwood is normally the better pitcher but it's really cold and Wainwright's curve should get a little movement boost in this weather. Ultimately I could see both guys with high WHIPs and low ERAs if the wind keeps some HRs in the park. Definite lean over since the number is set too low for my liking but talked myself out of it.

    Lean o8 in Giants/DBacks because it doesn't sound like Cueto is fully healthy and the Giants have finally started to get some hits. Passing for now.


    White Sox/Athletics o8.5 -110

    Small lean to White Sox here, although I did have some issue setting a ML, bouncing around between -135 and -155... the over seems like the better bet. Oakland is hitting for some power right now and Gonzalez for the White Sox serves up a bunch of HRs. On top of that the wind is blowing out nicely. Cahill puts way too many guys on base and hasn't been sharp at all in 2 starts at AAA trying to get ready for the season after being signed late. Cahill wasn't sharp for much of last year either. The guy does have potential and is facing a White Sox team that isn't hitting much... but it should also be noted that Chicago hit him last year when he was in good form (fell apart later in the year). Neither bullpen is worth trusting here, Oakland's is the scarier of the 2 and ultimately took me off the ML but the White Sox's pen gave up 6 runs over 2 innings against Oakland last night so they aren't particularly worth trusting either. 8.5 seems a run too low.

    Mariners +163
    Astros/Mariners o8 -105 (2-unit play, counts as 1-unit for record keeping purposes)


    Need to keep fading the Astros until they start hitting. Still not seeing any signs they are ready to come out of their slump. They've faced some horrible lefties and haven't hit them as hard as expected this year. I don't think Miranda is any good but Houston just isn't smacking around pitchers like last year and if he gives up 4 or 5 runs over 4 or 5 innings (about what I expect from him) the dog has a shot here. Seattle has been hurting right-handed pitchers this season and now has Nelson Cruz's big bat back in the lineup. McCullers has been really shaky lately and is a guy that tends to give up runs even when he's doing well. He almost never is good enough to blank teams and usually gives up a few despite pitching pretty well for the most part. McCullers has been a mess his last 2 starts against weak-hitting teams and I think the Mariners can get to him. I don't think either team has much of an issue scoring. Let's hope for a 6-5 Mariner win.

    I really wanted to take the Dodgers but I talked myself out of it. I can no longer deny that their power bats are coming around and Mitchell is very hittable... but he does have 2 things going for him... he doesn't give up HRs ever and plays in the spacious confines of Petco. Basically I'm not sure what to expect from the Dodgers in this one as their recent offensive improvement has mostly been powered by the long ball. Mitchell is a weird pitcher... he gets rocked more often than not but he also has proven capable of throwing 6 shutout innings against good teams out of nowhere which also scared me. Wood should do well for the Dodgers, throwing 6 or 7 innings, give up 1 or 2 runs. Honestly the Dodgers probably win but they really haven't scored this season in games where they didn't hit HRs and this is a tough matchup to hit the long ball in. I had it LAD -200 FWIW but got scared off.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Jays resting Granderson in game 1 of this double header but that doesn't worry me at all since he's stinky against lefties and the guy replacing him (Pearce) is an upgrade vs. southpaws.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Thames and Braun both back in the lineup for Brew Crew.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Yelich off DL for them too but not in lineup.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Zobrist scratched for Cubs. Scratch that over lean. He's nothing special but one of the few Cubbies who has hit consistently.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Longoria scratched for Giants. Doesn't do much against lefties either way so possibly not a negative.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Part 1 of 2, lagging behind as usual:

    Record: 45-46 -2.09

    Rockies +108

    Don't particularly trust either pitcher and neither offense is in good form. Colorado does have a massive bullpen advantage here which swayed me on to the dog. The other thing that swayed me onto Colorado is that Pittsburgh is resting about half of their starting lineup today. Josh Harrison is on DL and hits lefties well, but the Pirates are resting another 1 or 2 guys that also help vs. lefties. The remaining guys just don't seem like they'll be able to generate much offense, even against a hittable pitcher like Freeland. Gotta try the dog.

    Brewers -140

    Cincinnati isn't hitting right now and Davies is a sturdy pitcher who can get outs. He's too hittable at times but the Reds are barely getting hits so I don't think they'll be able to place anything like a team needs to do to get to Davies. Milwaukee has a nice pen while Cincinnati's pen is a mess. The Brewers have Yelich back today, Thames is healthy, Cain and Braun are sitting out but only Cain is really important IMO. Either way the Brewers' lineup is probably better than it has been lately as Yelich is a very good player. Just seems like the Brewers have about every advantage over the Reds here. Mahle isn't garbage but I don't think the youngster is as good as Davies. Just a little too early for him to have consistent success.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Lean Royals at close to 2/1. Royals seem to be hitting a bit better with Gordon out of the lineup these last few games and Jays still have 2 of their better hitters on the sidelines. Royals' bullpen ultimately can't be trusted so I decided to pass.

    Tigers +108

    I like Boyd a lot and think he's in for a nice year. The Orioles aren't hitting right now and haven't hit the last handful of lefties they've faced. Detroit's bullpen is awful but the Orioles' has been just as bad so far this year. Neither team has much of a bullpen they can trust. The Tigers also aren't doing much hitting right now. Basically you have 2 out-of-form offenses, 2 bad bullpens, and the Tigers are at home with the better starter. I think that's worth a try at +108.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Red Sox +110

    Interesting game here. Boston is without Pedroia and Bogaerts who are 2 of their best lefty hitters. Not ideal against southpaw Skaggs... that being said every single Boston bat in the lineup is mashing right now and they are dangerous against anyone. Boston hasn't faced a lefty in forever so it's definitely possible they struggle but what sold me on this is that Skaggs has control issues and uses a ton of pitches to get through innings. The Angels' bullpen is struggling lately and Boston should murder them. With the starter unable to go deep into games, we should get plenty of time for Boston to hurt the Angels' pen. Boston has a trustworthy pen and Porcello seems to be back into his Cy Young form. The Angels are hitting well but IMO Boston has the better starter, the better pen, and the slightly hotter offense. Seems like a good dog bet to me.

    Astros/Mariners u7.5 -110

    Cole is pitching out of his mind and Seattle's bats haven't been as hot lately. Looking back they've done a lot of their damage against poor bullpens and Houston has one of the better pens in the game to go along with a starter capable of going 7 innings or longer. Makes me think Seattle's offense will have another tough one. Houston's offense is still struggling to hit and aren't close to their form from last year. Leake is not an ace by any means but he's generally going to give you 5 or 6 innings of quality ball where he gives up 2 or 3 runs. Seattle's bullpen is decent enough. 7.5 just seems half a run too high here. I also lean toward playing the Mariners here at +161 but I'm hemorrhaging money fading the Astros so will lay off. They just always seem to find ways to win even when the bats aren't working.

    Padres +155

    I theorized yesterday that the Dodgers, who have been relying on their HR power, might have trouble scoring in this massive pitcher's park against a pitcher that doesn't give up HRs. LAD did enough to get 3 runs over 6 innings but was mostly held in check until the 12th inning where they started to hurt San Diego's deep bullpen guys. I think the same situation is in play today. Pedermo isn't anything special and was rushed to the Majors way before he was ready but what he excels at is getting ground ball outs and he rarely gives up home runs. That should help keep this powerful Dodgers' offense in check a bit. San Diego's bullpen is capable of blowing the game later on but I don't think they are quite as bad as the optics look over the last 2 games against LAD. In game 1 of the series they had to go deep into the pen as the starter lasted just 3 innings, and then last night the pen was actually pretty darn good until that 12th inning. Ultimately I don't think the Dodgers score a ton of runs here. Maeda for the Dodgers is a solid enough pitcher but his ERA is usually a lot higher than his WHIP would indicate and he struggled with the Padres last season. Maeda also is in a weird spot where LAD has him bouncing between the pen and starting. Have to wonder if it affects him. Ultimately I think San Diego is a good home dog as they look to avoid the sweep.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Carlos Santana resting for Phillies. Good power bat but hasn't been hitting at all this year so not that important.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Buxton out for Twins, good player but he's more important when the team faces a lefty.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Ughh Tigers bullpen blows a gem from Boyd. He's now the first MLB pitcher since Pedro Martinez in 1994 to throw 6+ innings of 1-run ball or better in his first 3 games and not get a win. Fun stuff.
  • munson15munson15 Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Jake T. wrote: »
    Ughh Tigers bullpen blows a gem from Boyd. He's now the first MLB pitcher since Pedro Martinez in 1994 to throw 6+ innings of 1-run ball or better in his first 3 games and not get a win. Fun stuff.

    all's well that ends well, this game is exhibit A on why it's better for your health not to watch...
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    munson15 wrote: »
    all's well that ends well, this game is exhibit A on why it's better for your health not to watch...

    Agreed 100%.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Record: 48-49 -2.01

    Orioles/Tigers o9 -105

    I'm really not sure what to expect here but at only 9 runs and 105 cents I had to try the over. Alex Cobb is a nice pitcher but he's been pitching against minor leaguers the last few weeks and got obliterated by the Red Sox in his season debut last start. Detroit's power bats are starting to come around lately. After Cobb leaves we have the below average Orioles' bullpen in the game. Zimmerman has been a mess the past 2 seasons and doesn't appear to be much better this year. He's just not the pitcher he used to be. The Orioles aren't doing much hitting right now but they do have some major power and Zimmerman is pretty good at giving up HRs. After Zimmerman leaves we have the terrible Detroit bullpen giving up runs. On top of all that, this is a park that usually caters to hitters and we're going to get a nice wind blowing out. Neither starter is in good form and I think we'll see a good amount of HRs here. 9 just seems a bit low.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Bummer loss to end last night with my u7.5 Astros/Mariners finishing at 8 runs with 2 of them scoring off errors. Oh well, way she goes lately. The pick I just posted is only part 1 of 2, will do the rest tomorrow. Lines from the 3 I capped for those that are interested:

    Orioles -110, o9.5 -115
    Astros -160, 8.5 pk
    Yankees -150, 8.5 pk
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Lean Marlins +170. Just think that Peters is a bit underrated and Anderson is a bit overrated. Ultimately Marlins' bullpen will probably blow it like almost every time I bet on them.

    Lean o8.5 in Giants/DBacks. On one hand Blach is pretty hittable, on the other hand Arizona bats are a little cold and they don't hit lefties as well as righties. On one hand Greinke is battling injuries and his velocity is down, on the other hand SF really doesn't do much offensively. Neither bullpen is overly strong. Decided to lay off but gut say it goes over.


    Red Sox/Angels o8.5 +100

    Tried to convince myself to pass here but can't do it. The Angels' offense hasn't been as scary lately and it also seems they aren't as good against lefties. LAA has hurt a few southpaws this season but also struggled with the better ones. Ohtani doesn't hit lefties well thus far. Boston's bullpen is very good which should largely keep the Angels in check, although Eduardo Rodriguez probably isn't good enough to escape without giving up a few runs. He's a decent enough pitcher but rarely is dominant. Tropeano looked great in his return from all the surgery stuff and is a capable pitcher, but he's also not an ace due to a high WHIP. He might be among the best in the game at working out of trouble but he puts a ton of guys on base. Against this Boston offense that is absolutely oliberating about every pitcher they see, I just think that Tropeano's willingness to put guys on base will come back to hurt him. On top of that the Angels' bullpen is a mess and getting destroyed left and right lately. Tropeano seems like he's only good for about 5-6 innings if pitching well so we should see plenty of the Angels' pen. 8.5 at even money just seems too low for this matchup, even if I do think that both starters have a chance to do well. Had to play it.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Honestly felt I'd have more plays today. Felt pretty dialed in but lines were just exactly what I was thinking. Was sure I'd be on the Mets/Braves over but it got hit pretty hard about 5 minutes before I finished capping it. Even without Freeman I just don't trust either starter or pen in that game. Might play it small still. Good luck today folks.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    why did the ORioles drop the last 2 days so much, I dont see anything significant that happened to drop the lines both days by 20 or more cents, any ideas?
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    why did the ORioles drop the last 2 days so much, I dont see anything significant that happened to drop the lines both days by 20 or more cents, any ideas?

    Not really sure. Poor batting form of late and bullpen falling apart could have contributed I suppose, but ultimately not sure.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    I bet Indians tomorrow at -119 before it jumps to -150, I really do think after this crap show today and the last 2 days line moves for no reason, I think the line will tank again on the Orioles for tomorrow. My handicap said O's +100ish and they opened at +120 so I bet it goes way higher, I am guessing Indians close at -140ish
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Oh snap, Freeman in Braves lineup after all.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Will update record in the morning. Have had plenty of chances to get this Red Sox game over 8.5 but hasn't happened yet. 9th just started. Angels had a runner on 3rd with 1 out in the 7th and the Red Sox had the bases loaded with 1 out in the 8th but no runs came of it. Hoping for the best.

    Tigers -125
    Royals/Tigers o8 -110


    Both of these are pretty strong plays for me. My lines weren't even close. So the Tigers are starting to mash finally and they crushed Hammel already once this year. Hammel hasn't done that well against them in the past. Beyond Hammel the Royals have shown the worst bullpen in baseball this year. Detroit should score plenty of runs now that their offense is in good form. Them covering the total by themselves wouldn't surprise me. Then you have Fulmer for the Tigers who is actually a really good pitcher. He's coming off a bad start but is capable of throwing really good innings most of the time. I don't think the Royals will do anything too major against him but KC has finally started hitting a bit themselves and seem in good offensive form. Even if Fulmer only gives up 1 or 2 runs (I think he'll give up 2 or 3 over 6ish innings) you then have another terrible bullpen closing things out for Detroit. Detroit's pen is better this year but still nothing special and they've been crushed in back-to-back games so it seems they are reverting to their 2017 form. Even beyond all that, this is a good ballpark for hitters and the wind is blowing out to dead center at 8MPH for 2 teams that are hitting for power nicely. 8 runs as the total seems like a joke. I think Detroit has the better offense, the better starter, and the better bullpen (although that's not saying much). Tigers win 7-4.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Benintendi knocks in 2! Almost back to profitability after that rough stretch.

    Record: 50-49 -.01
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Going over injuries now. Appears that Zunino is probably back for the Mariners tomorrow. He's not the best player in the world but he's a huge upgrade over what Seattle has been using at catcher. Guy would hit 30 HRs if he ever got to 500 ABs.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Grr the Royals just switched their starters for the doubleheader today so I'll have to re-cap that early game and the bets I posted are void.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Tigers skipper just said he'd "ad lib" the lineup for the 2nd game, which to me sounds like some guys might get rested.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Detroit Tigers -121 Game 1

    Still like Detroit in game 1, just not as much as much as before. Now with Junis penciled in here you have 2 equally good starters (maybe slight lean to Fulmer but I'm a Junis fan) and the Tigers' offense being the better of the 2. The Tigers are at home and also have the better bullpen. KC's bullpen simply can't get outs so even if Junis dominates Detroit like he did earlier this year it very well might not be enough for the Royals. Detroit's hot. Lean over here as well but I don't trust Detroit to go nuts offensively like I figured they would have against Hammel. Also the wind is blowing out a few MPH below the projection last night so pass on the total.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Scratch 2nd Detroit play. Ughh rough morning. Now it's Junis facing Daniel Norris in game 2, Hammel vs. Fulmer in game 1. Capping that stupid game for the 3rd time now.
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