Betting Talk

2018 Baseball plays

12357

Comments

  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    YTD: 89-78, -5.55u

    Cubs/Quintana -211

    High Winds blowing out to LCF in Wrigley is a major boost for hitters today and a detriment to fly-ball oriented SPs. For the Marlins, Wei-Yin Chen and his heavy Fly-Ball batted ball profile is on the mound today (39% GB, 61% FB/LD). The only current Cub he has faced before is Ben Zobrist who has excellent BvP stats against him with a.349 AVG/.893 OPS. For the Cubs, Jose Quintana (46% GB, 54% FB/LD) is on the mound, having pitched pretty well his last 2 starts (even though his defense screwed him over in his last start).

    Mets/Wheeler +102

    Aside from the 1st inning in his last start vs a Rockies team that has done well against him, Wheeler has been quite serviceable for the Mets this season. Before that game he had held opponents to a .247 AVG against, was throwing strikes with regularity (67%), and was generating swings and misses (10.3%). I think he will bounce back nicely today against a Cincinnati Reds team that have been astonishingly bad in day games this year with a 2-12 record on the season. Sal Romano is on the mound for the Reds having pitched nicely for them over the last few games but his peripheral stats suggest that some heavy regression is coming. Right now his FIP is almost 2 runs higher than his ERA due to his extremely low K rate (4.7 per 9 IP), low SwStr Rate (4.8%), and an unsustainable .235 BABIP.

    Tigers/Liriano +130

    Continued usage of Liriano vs lefty heavy offenses as he has been downright dominant against his fellow southpaws with a .088 AVG/.315 OPS against this season. While the return of Adrian Beltre helps to break up the lefty cluster that the Rangers have in the middle of their lineup, the trio of Choo, Mazara, and Gallo are still have a combined .208 AVG against LHP

    Rockies/Anderson -133

    We all know what it takes to be a successful SP in Coors Field.....keep the ball on the ground and miss bats. Unfortunately for Barria, he hasn't shown that he can do either of those things with regularity. During his brief MLB career, Barria has posted an average batted ball line (44% GB/56% FB/LD) but in his larger sample minor league career, Barria usually sat around the 30% GB/70% FB&LD range posting below 40% GB marks in AAA, AA, and A+.

    Royals/Skoglund +122
    Royals/Orioles over 9.5 runs -115

    As much as I don't like Skoglund, the Orioles are an absolute mess right now and could very well be on their way to a managerial change here soon with as poorly as they have played. It doesn't get any better today as Andrew Cashner is on the mound having struggled his last 3 starts with pitch efficiency (21 pitches/IP), hard contact (29% LD rate) and missing bats (5.4% SwStr). Each of those last 3 games have resulted in a run total above 10. For Skoglund, 4 out of the 5 games that he's pitch have resulted in run totals above 10 as well.

    D-Backs/Corbin +110

    Continuing Dodgers fade vs LHP. Honestly, I'm not sure how Corbin is the underdog here .He has already dominated the Dodgers twice already this season. In addition, Alex Wood came down with some hamstring pain during his regularly scheduled bullpen session on Monday but is still going to attempt to pitch through it.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    YTD: 90-84, -11.03u
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Royals/Kennedy -106

    Continued Tillman fades.

    Cardinals/Mikolas -147
    Cardinals/Padres over 7.5 runs -113


    While its sad to see Bryan Mitchell removed from the starting rotation, Jordan Lyles is an equally bad SP to constantly fade against. The reason Lyles was originally removed from the rotation is because he can't get guys out more than 1 time through the lineup. In his career, batters have a .232 AVG/.662 OPS the 1st time they see him, but that number jumps up to .285 AVG/.797 OPS the 2nd time through and .344 AVG/.952 OPS the 3rd time. It may take a few innings, but I fully expect the Cardinals to score some runs, especially with Tommy Pham expecting to be back in the lineup today.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    YTD: 91-86, -12.22u

    Nationals/Scherzer -193

    Koch's luck held out again his last time out against the Astros. Despite only generating 5 total swing and misses, allowing 6 base hits including a HR, double, and triple....somehow he only managed to give up 1 run. At some point (just like with Trevor Williams) that luck is gonna run out. For the Nationals, Mad Max is on the mound with excellent BvP stats against the Diamondbacks. Across 117 Plate Appearances, current D-backs have a .200 AVG/.594 OPS against with a 32% K rate. Specifically, AJ Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt are a combined 3 for 27 with 11 K's against Scherzer.

    Pirates/Taillon -124

    The Giants are having a really rough East Coast road trip having been swept in 4 games by the Phillies due to their lack of quality starting pitching finally being over-exposed. Today is Andrew Suarez's turn as he faces a Pirates team that doesn't strikeout and has been hitting lefties well with a .264 AVG/.797 OPS.

    Orioles/Rays under 9 runs -111

    Jacob Faria and Kevin Gausman have both been pitching really well as of late. Faria has allowed 3 runs or fewer in 4 of his last 5 starts and Gausman has done it each of his last 6 games pitched. With Tampa Bay's bats having gone quiet over the last few days (.236 AVG/.657 OPS, 14 total runs in last 7 days) and the Orioles having poor contact BvP stats vs Faria (.231 AVG + 32% K rate across 73 PA) scoring should be limited.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Adding ...

    Yankees/Gray -200
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    YTD: 93-88, -13.33u
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    No write ups today.

    Rays/Archer (Game 1) -132
    Blue Jays/Estrada +126
    Mets/Syndergaard -143
    Giants/Samardzija +120
    Cardinals/Wacha -111
    Nationals/Strasburg -170
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    YTD: 94-92, -16.76u
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Indians/Kluber -265

    Auto-play Kluber at home. While Duffy did look better his last time out, he has never had much success pitching at Progressive. In his career, Duffy has a 2-5 record with a 5.02 ERA and an .808 OPS against. He is also still struggling with pitch efficiency (19 pitches/IP) which could expose what's surprisingly been the worst bullpen in the MLB so far this year in terms of ERA (5.83 ERA).

    Padres/Richard +117

    Adam Wainwright is coming off the DL after only 1 rehab game to make this start for the Cardinals. He was struggling to maintain his velocity during games before this latest injury so one has to question whether or not his elbow inflammation is going to affect him more. In that rehab game, Wainwright did throw 5 shutout innings but he only generated 3 swings and misses across 59 pitches (5.1% SwStr).

    Mariners/Paxton -190

    It's a bullpen day for the Detroit Tigers as Blaine Hardy will get his 1st career MLB start. The Tigers bullpen has not been very good, ranking 7th worst in the MLB with a 4.63 ERA. In addition, the Mariners actually hit LHP very well with a .779 OPS which is 7th best in the MLB.

    Rays/Orioles over 8.5 runs -111

    After a 6 week slumber, the return of Jonathan Schoop to the lineup has sparked the Orioles offense into producing how pre-season projections thought they would produce. Today they face Blake Snell who has been pitching well over his last few starts, but is showing signs that a poor game is upcoming as he has given up a ton of hard contact over his last 2 starts (17 Line Drives = 45% Line Drive Batted Ball rate). On the other side, Dylan Bundy has been a mechanical mess giving up 7+ runs in each of his last 3 starts as he's been struggling to generate swings and misses with his slider. Without his slider, he's been forced to rely on his fastball more (Usage jump from 37% in April to 55% now) which is down almost 4 mph from its peak two years ago and has been one of the worst performing pitchers among SPs over the last 2 years according to Fangraphs.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    YTD: 97-93, -15.49u

    Braves/Teheran +151

    The Braves are too much of an underdog here considering how "meh" Quintana has looked this season as well how the Braves have hit LHP this season. We're 6 weeks into the season and Atlanta still sits as the 2nd best team in the MLB in OPS vs LHP at .815 OPS. They also are the best hitting team during day games with an .898 OPS when the sun is out. Even though Quintana has only allowed 1 run in the last 10 IP, his metrics have still been lackluster at best. During those 10 IP, he has allowed 16 base-runners, his pitch efficiency has been poor (19.6 pitches/IP), and he's given up a ton of hard contact (41% Line Drive Rate).
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Reds/Romano +123

    The Reds offense has been clicking ever since Eugenio Suarez came off the Disabled List. In the 17 games he's played since his activation, the Reds have scored 4 runs or more in 13 of those games. Today's SP Sal Romano has not given up more than 4 runs in a game yet this season and has only done so once in his last 16 starts thanks to his ability to limit hard contact (only 18% Line Drive Rate in 2018). Today he faces a San Francisco Giants team that could be battling some fatigue, after flying back home with no off day, having just concluded a 10 game East Coast road trip where they lost 6 of their last 7 games.

    Rockies/Anderson -105
    Rockies/Padres over 7 run +112

    Tonight will be the 3rd time the Rockies will have faced Joey Lucchesi. Normally that wouldn't be an issue considering they play in the same division, but Lucchesi only has 2 pitches in his repertoire. Fastball and Change Up.....that's it. The lack of variety is starting to catch up to him as over his last 3 starts, the supporting metrics are getting worse. He's allowed 21 base-runners in his last 15 IP (including 4 home runs) his swinging strike rate has dipped to 8.5% (Was at 13.2% during his 1st 5 starts of the season), and his Line Drive allowed rate is spiked to 36% (was at 24% his 1st 5 starts).
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Adding ...

    Royals/Rays over 9.5 +100
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    YTD: 100-95, -13.86u

    No writeups today, apologies ...

    Marquez/Rockies -109

    Rockies/Padres over 7.5 +100
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Adding:

    Blue Jays/Garcia +133

    Astros/Cole -159

    Rays/Banda -110
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    YTD: 102-98, -14.95u
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    No write-ups again today (and possibly tomorrow either) ...

    Orioles/Cashner +102

    White Sox/Santiago +162

    Marlins/Smith +143

    Indians/Bauer -204

    Astros/Verlander -129
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    YTD: 104-100, -14.95u

    Marlins/Smith +130

    The Dodgers offense has continued to struggle vs LHP as they rank 3rd worst in the MLB in terms of OPS vs southpaws. Kenta Maeda will be on the mound for them today, and while his Swinging Strike rate has been decent, he's really been struggling to keep the ball away from the middle of the strike zone which is allowing both a lot of contact, and a lot of HARD contact. In his last 15 IP, he has allowed 25 base-runners (18 H, 7 BB) of which 11 of the 18 hits allowed have been of the extra base variety. For the Fish, Caleb Smith looks to continue his strong run of performances as he has limited opponents to a .188 AVG against over the last 3 games with only 2 extra base hits. While it is a relatively small sample, Smith has been MUCH better in day games vs night game during his short career thus far. In 9 games pitched he allowed a paltry .182 AVG against with a .577 OPS compared to .268 AVG/.808 OPS in night games. On the flip side, Maeda has been worse in day games in a larger sample size....19 games... .268 AVG/.797 OPS vs .229 AVG/.657 OPS in night games.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Braves/Soroka +101

    The Atlanta Braves continue to crush LHP as their OPS is now up to .829 vs the southpaws. Today they have a double advantage of facing Lester who is both left handed AND is horrendous at holding runners on. As of today, the Braves are the top team in the MLB in both steals and steal attempts. If they can get runners on, they should be able to swipe a bag or two and screw with Lester's rhythm.

    Rangers/Hamels -120

    This is a potential high wind game....but with the winds shifting between blowing out to RF and across the diamond, it will be hard to rely on it. If the winds DO stay North, James Shields will be at a major disadvantage as he heavily relies on generating fly balls to get outs (38% GB, 62% FB/LD). From a BvP standpoint, Shields is also at a disadvantage as current Rangers hitters have a .306 AVG/.794 OPS against him. Lastly, Shields is due for some major regression on his stats vs LHB (Which the Rangers team is mostly comprised of). So far in 2018, he has a .628 OPS against LHB which is WAY down from his past 2 season marks of .866 OPS and .929 OPS against.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Both of above scratched. Doing same games however.

    Adding:

    Braves/Fried +117

    Rangers/Fister -110
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    YTD: 104-102, -17.05u
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    200 bets down 17 units is basically paying the Vig, what is your avg line paid? You also know a huge indicator is your CLV against the margin. 104-102 does not say much unless you share your avg line
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Nationals/Scherzer -208

    MadMax is showing no signs of slowing down, in fact, he's getting stronger. His fastball velocity is up 2 mph from the beginning of the season and his Swinging Strike Rate is holding steady at a ridiculous 18%. From a BvP standpoint, Scherzer has a strong advantage as current Dodgers have a .165 AVG/.531 OPS against him across 114 plate appearances. In fact since he joined the Nationals in 2015, when facing NL West opponents not named the Colorado Rockies, Scherzer has a career 12-2 record with a 2.44 ERA and a 13.1 K/9 rate.

    Padres/Ross +117

    Tyson Ross is back to being the ace caliber SP he used to be before he got hurt in 2016. Over his last 6 starts he's only allowed a .195 AVG against on a very sustainable .273 BABIP and is generating a swing and miss rate (12%) that is above the MLB average rate. More important, this Padres team has CRUSHED Ivan Nova in the past as the team has a .469 AVG/1.368 OPS against him in his career. This includes 8 different Padres with OPS marks above 1.000.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    What lines you got on these 2 games?
    I got some weird bad lines but CLV is looking good
    I got 134 Dodgers and bought at 205
    I got 101 Padres and bought at 125
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Marlins/Strailly +163
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    YTD: 106-102, -14.25u
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Dodgers/Hill +183

    Pirates/Kingham -128

    Mets/Matz +113

    Angels/Heaney -177
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    YTD: 108-104, -14.34u
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Athletics/Cahill -139

    High Winds in Oakland blowing out to RCF between 15-20mph. While I would prefer to bet against a SP with a batted ball profile more weighted to the Fly Ball.....Mike Leake does have a history of having an MLB average batted ball split (45% GB/55% FB&LD) WITH an elevated HR to FB ratio (career 13.6% vs MLB average of ~10%). In his career he has allowed 20+ HRs every season for the last 7 years. Today he faces an Oakland team that is ranked 3rd in the MLB in slugging vs RHP and has beaten him up a ton during his career. Across 125 Plate Appearances, current A's have a .381 AVG with a 1.015 OPS. On the A's side, Trevor Cahill is protected from the winds thanks to his extremely heavy ground ball profile (61% GB/39% FB&LD). He has also held most of the Mariners in check during his career as current players have a .280 AVG/.756 OPS. As long as he can avoid damage from Kyle Seager (.500 AVG/1.800 OPS, 4 XBH), Cahill should do relatively well.

    Yankees/German -158

    The Yanks have been mashing LHP so far this season ranking 2nd in the MLB in slugging and OPS and Hamels hasn't pitched in over 10 days after being scratched twice due to a neck strain. The injury has prevented him from throwing any side sessions as well over the last week. From a BvP perspective, Hamels has only faced 2 current Yankee more than 5 times.....Didi Gregorius (.500 AVG/1.306 OPS w/2 doubles) and Giancarlo Stanton (.255 AVG/.820 OPS w/3 doubles, 1 triple, 3 HR).

    Brewers/Chacin -143

    Keep kicking them while they are down. The Diamondbacks offense is NOWHERE to be found right now as they continue to average only 2 runs a game over their last 12 games now. During that time span they have not scored more than 4 runs in any of those games and in the entire month they have only topped that mark once on May 8th. Today the Brewers get another shot at Matt Koch who they lit up last time out for 8 ER on 9 hits in only 4.1 IP. As much of a sabermetrics correction that last start was....the numbers suggest that Koch should continue to get beaten up as his FIP is still over 2 runs higher than his current ERA due to his lack of K's, swinging strikes, and the hard contact he allows.

    Pirates/Taillon -126

    How long does Harvey expect his good fortune to last with the Reds? Harvey's first two starts were in very friendly pitching environments in San Fran and LA where his heavy fly ball batted profile (37% GB/63% FB&LD) was safe from major harm. Today he has to pitch at his new home in GABP which has been the 3rd most dangerous ballpark in the MLB this season to Flyball pitchers (3rd in MLB in HR ballpark factor) against a Pirates team that now has its spark plug (Josh Harrison) back at the top of the batting order.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    YTD: 109-107, -17.57u
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Cardinals/Wacha -165

    Not a bad pitching matchup as both Wacha and Junis have been in fine form over their last few starts. Both have similar Swinging Strike Rates and similar Line Drive Rates. I'll side with Wacha here though as the Royals offense has been struggling over the last 7 days with a paltry .217 AVG/.610 OPS and an average of 2.8 runs scored per game, 6th worst in the MLB during the time frame. Compare this to the Cardinals offense who have a .314 AVG/.837 OPS with 5.6 runs per game over the last 7 days.

    Twins/Gibson -163

    While the Royals offense has been bad.....the Detroit Tigers has been straight non-existent over the last 7 days with a .190 AVG/.507 OPS and less than 1.9 runs scored per game. The Tigers are known for sitting most of their regulars on get away days which produces horrendous AAA team style looking lineups that just don't perform well. So far this season the Tigers are 4-10 in the final game of a series.
Sign In or Register to comment.