Betting Talk

2018 Baseball plays

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  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Orioles/Gausman -119

    Today's matchup vs the Tigers is by far Gausman's easiest task so far this seaon. After running the gauntlet with match-ups vs the Twins (13th), Yankees (4th), and Blue Jays (7th) so far this season, he'll face an offense that ranks as the 5th worst in the MLB so far this season. Current Tigers have unfavorable stats against him too with a .104 AVG and a .376 OPS across 53 Plate Appearances. In addition, one of the Tigers primary weapons, Miguel Cabrera, is playing through a back injury today. On the other side lefty Matt Boyd is on the mound for the Tigers coming off of 2 good performances against 2 horrible offenses (Royals and Indians). While the offense for the Orioles has not been great overall this season, they are one of the better teams against LHP ranking 11th overall in OPS compared to dead last in OPS vs RHP. Current Orioles also have solid stats against Boyd, albeit a small sample size, with a .450 AVG and a 1.370 OPS against him.

    Rockies/Freeland +112

    Both pitchers in this game have unfavorable BvP stats vs the opposing teams they are facing today. The only player getting a rest today for the Rockies will be Gerardo Parra, compared to the Pirates who are sitting Gregory Polanco, Corey Dickerson, Colin Moran, and Francisco Cervelli. That's the entire bench for the Pirates, so I'll side with the Rockies here.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Mets/Matz -106

    If there is one good thing to come from the Mets loss last night, it's that they were able to give all their lefty bats a day of rest. That's an important note because this Mets team ranks 4th overall in OPS against RHP because of the success of those lefties. Today they draw Tanner Roark who has had trouble with the Mets over the last two years as Keith Hernandez so famously said "He's getting his tits lit." Over his last 3 starts vs the Mets, Roark has allowed 11 ER in 17 IP thanks in part to 5 HRs allowed. For the Mets, lefty Steven Matz is on the mound with strong BvP stats. In 80 PA, current Nationals have a .188 AVG with a .548 OPS. This includes a .182 AVG/.432 OPS from Bryce Harper. The Nationals as a whole have had trouble with LHP so far this season ranking 28th overall in OPS vs LHP - only ahead of the Mets and Tigers.

    Twins/Berrios +105

    Today is a special day for Berrios as he gets to make a start in his birthplace of Puerto Rico. Special days call for special performances which could happen considering the success he's had so far this season and against the current Indians roster in his career. Current Indians have a paltry .188 AVG with a .464 OPS in 52 PA against Berrios. Combine this with his 2 shutout performances so far this season, an Indians lineup that ranks 25th overall vs RHP, and his above average swinging strike rate (11%) and you have yourself a favorable matchup. It also helps that Berrios teammates have had success vs Carrasco in the past. In 159 PA, current Twins have a .278 AVG with a .819 OPS.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 39-38, -9.27u

    Orioles/Cobb -118

    High Winds in Detroit between 15-20 mph blowing out to CF. This plays well into the Orioles hands based on today's pitching match-up. Alex Cobb has a pretty heavy ground-ball oriented batted ball profile (54% GB, 26% FB, 20% LD) vs Jordan Zimmerman who has a more even profile (41% GB, 37% FB, 22% LD). The BvP stats favor the Orioles as well as current Tigers have not fared well against Cobb with a .178 AVG with a .546 OPS against him in 53 Plate Appearances. Current Orioles vs Zimmerman though have a .328 AVG with a 1.181 OPS in 62 PA including 9 HRs.

    Mets/Harvey -110

    The Braves nice start could be coming to an abrupt end after a deja vu moment occurred last night for their superstar 1B Freddie Freeman. Freeman was HBP in the exact same spot that he fractured his wrist last season that forced him to miss 6 weeks. Without Freeman to protect him, the red hot Ozzie Albies could see fewer good pitches to drive. Matt Harvey has also had success against the Braves in the past holding them to a .220 AVG with a .667 OPS. The Mets will be facing RHP Lucas Sims who was just called up from (AAA). While Sims did face the Mets on 2 occasions last season in September, it was a VERY different roster than the one he will face today. He did not see Conforto, Bruce, Cespedes, Gonzalez, or Frazier last season. The Mets have also been crushing RHP to the tune of a .785 OPS (5th best in MLB)

    D-Backs/Grienke -169

    The Diamondbacks have been one of the MLB's best offenses vs LHP so far this year ranking 6th overall with a .758 OPS. Today they get to face LHP Ty Blach who hasnt been very good against anyone besides the LA Dodgers. There isnt much BvP data to go on but last time Blach faced the D-Backs, Goldschmidt, Peralta, and Pollock all went 2 for 4 with an extra base hit. Grienke on the other hand has faced this current Giants team plenty in his career. Across 332 PA, current Giants have a .240 AVG with a .669 OPS. Outside of McCutchen (.267 AVG, .879 OPS) no Giants player has had much success vs Grienke with everyone else's OPS marks coming in below .735.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 40-40, -10.55

    Royals/Junis +105

    Here is the tale of two pitchers who both have had 2 good starts and 1 bad start but their underlying saber stats tell two different stories. For Fulmer, you have yourself a guy who is considered the staff ace, but has only been posting a well below average 6% Swinging Strike Rate and is allowing a VERY scary 27% Line Drive batted ball rate. On the flipside you have Jakob Junis who has a slighlty above average SwStr Rate (10.2%) and has done an excellent job so far limiting hard Line Drive contact (14%). Given these peripherals and the BvP stats favoring Junis (.190 AVG w/.460 OPS over 45 PA) over Fulmer (.292 AVG w/.686 OPS over 76 PA) and you have yourself a decent dog play.

    Padres/Ross +117

    It took a few years but Tyson Ross actually looks healthy and effective again. His last time out against the Giants, he was throwing strikes (67%), he was missing bats (14% SwStr), and he was keeping the ball on the ground (11 GB vs 9 FB). The Line Drive Rate is certainly still a bit too high for my tastes but overall he is showing that he could be a serviceable quality arm again. Today he gets matched up against minor leaguer Matt Koch who doesn't really have the necessary tools to succeed in the MLB. He doesn't have the quality stuff to miss bats in the MLB let alone the upper minors (4.7 K/9 in AAA). With Wil Myers set to come off the DL today the Padres offense should be able to put up some runs against him.

    Mets/Syndergaard -138

    It took him a bit but Thor looks like he's finally found his grade A stuff. After a long 29 pitch 1st inning against the Brewers, Syndergaard locked in striking out 8 Brewers in a row at one point. For the game he generated a 24.7% SwStr Rate! (A reminder, the MLB average rate is 9.5%). Today he faces a young Braves team that does like to swing the bat so if his stuff is dancing like it was last week it could be a rough day for Atlanta. Lefty Sean Newcomb is on the mound today for the Braves and the Mets have struggled vs LHP, but one Achilles heel for Newcomb so far has been his propensity to issue walks. The Mets are one of the more patient teams in the MLB so if they can drive that pitch count up and get to the bullpen that could be their ticket to a victory today.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Adding ...

    Red Sox/Pomeranz -117

    I'm not really all that confident in Drew Pomeranz, especially in his 1st start coming off the DL. However, it is extremely hard to ignore just how awful Kendall Graveman has been to start this season. In his 4 starts so far this season he has failed to record a Quality Start in any of them allowing 5 ER in 3 of those 4 starts. His big problem right now is control....specifically his mechanical release point. Graveman in the past has been very good at repeating his delivery with only a 0.5" deviation in his delivery in 2015, 2016 and a 0.7" deviation in 2017. So far this season he's been all over the place with a 1.7" deviation thus far this season. It's causing him to leave the ball up in the zone which hitters are driving out of the park (6 HRs in those 4 starts). Add this is his career long problem of not being able to miss bats (6% SwStr and a 5.6 K/9) vs the best hitting team in baseball and you have a yourself a solid reason to bet against him.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Royals/Junis above is now no action due to pitcher change.

    New play ...

    919 Royals/Junis -115
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Adding...

    Astros/Verlander -260
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 45-40, -5.38u
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Indians/Clevinger -196

    Straightforward here, continuing Tillman fades.

    Mets/deGrom -152

    The Braves squandered their best opportunity at a victory this weekend when their bullpen coughed up the lead in yesterday's game. Now they have to face Jacob deGrom who, just like Thor, found his Grade A stuff last week generating 23 swings and misses across 103 pitches (22.3% SwStr Rate). In his career, current Braves have a .235 AVG with a .666 OPS against him across 93 plate appearances. For the Braves, Julio Teheran will be making the start at home which is generally not a good sign. While he performed well last time out against the Phillies, Teheran still has a 5.93 career ERA at SunTrust Park. The Mets have also done much better against RHP ranking 5th overall in the MLB in OPS vs RHP.

    Astros/Keuchel -220

    It may have taken them a bit but the Astros offense is finally coming alive. Today they get to face young RHP Lucas Giolito who has been struggling mightily with his command. In his 3 games pitched so far, he has issued more BB than K (12 to 8), has Hit 4 Batters with a pitch, and tossed in 2 Wild Pitches for good measure. For the 'Stros, Dallas Keuchel is on the mound for them still searching for his 1st win. While the White Sox don't strike out too much, the sinkerballer should be able to generate a ton of ground balls against this young swing happy White Sox offense.

    D-Backs/Godley -163

    On occasion, Godley suffers from control issues. However, historically speaking, in his career anytime he registers more than 3 BB in a game he bounces back quite nicely. Last season, on games following those performances, Godley has posted a 25 to 4 K to BB ratio. Today he faces a Padres team that continues to struggle offensively even with Wil Myers back. In his career, current Pads have a decent .268 Avg with a .767 OPS across 63 games. The Diamondbacks however have excellent stats vs Clayton Richard. Across 94 PA, current D-Backs hitters have teed off to the tune of a .362 AVG with a .976 OPS. Paul Goldschmidt in particular has demolished Richards with a .370 Avg and a 1.093 OPS including 4 extra base hits + 9 walks.

    Rockies/Anderson +128

    I dont particularly trust Anderson here but something is severely wrong with Yu Darvish mechanically. From 2017 to 2018, Darvish's average release point has dropped over 3.5" which is causing him to have some issues controlling his fastball. He's still generating K's as the movement on his pitches is fine but he's also leaving it over the plate more often which has led to a spike in Avg against him so far. Pitching in Colorado today he can't afford to have those mistakes as most of those pitches over the plate can turn into bombs.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 49-41, -2.62u
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Phillies/Pivetta -160

    Pivetta has taken a nice step forward so far in 2018 thanks to his much improved control and another tick or 2 on his fastball. Year over year he's improved his strikes thrown rate by 5% and his Swinging Strike Rate by 2%. Today he gets to face a Pirates offense that has been struggling ever since Josh Harrison went down. The club has scored 2 runs or fewer in 5 of their 6 games so far without him. The Phillies get to face Trevor Williams who's having a good season so far despite horrendous sabermetric stats. In his 4 starts so far, Williams has only generated a 5% SwStr rate, is running a poor 59% strikes thrown rate, and is allowing Line Drives at a 26% clip (The MLB average is 21%). Despite all that he somehow has a 1.93 ERA. His luck won't continue for much longer.

    Tigers/Liriano -165

    It's already been touched on but Eric Skoglund is not a very good pitcher. In his 7 career starts thus far the only "quality start" he has provide was his season debut. For the Tigers they have Liriano on the mound looking like the former stud that he used to be back in his Pittsburgh days. He has superb BvP stats against this weak hitting Royals team with a .194 AVG and a .548 OPS against across 110 Plate Appearances. No Royals starter has a OPS mark above .750.

    Marlins/Smith +170

    Early in the season I had referenced that Caleb Smith was actually posting a SwStr Rate that was solidly above the MLB average rate. Three weeks later and that metric is still looks quite good at 13.3% despite his traditional stats showing a much poorer picture. Today he faces a Milwaukee lineup that so far this season has been worse against LHP (.658 OPS) vs RHP (.753 OPS) and ranks 23rd in MLB. This game certainly isn't without its risks though as Javy Guerra is on the mound for the Brewers and the Marlins possess the MLB's worst offense vs RHP right now.

    D-backs/Corbin -143

    While Lucchesi has been quite good so far this season, Corbin is flirting with elite status right now. So far in his 4 starts, Corbin has exceeded 15+ swings and misses each time and is running an incredible 18% SwStr Rate right now. The D-backs offense has also been better vs LHP (.762 OPS) than vs RHP (.675 OPS) so far this season as well.

    Rays/Chirinos -121

    This bet is all about Phil Hughes coming off the DL to make his 1st start of the season. Just like Matt Harvey, Hughes had his top rib removed to alleviate the symptoms of Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery this off-season. As we've seen in the past, the comeback success rate for TOS victims has not been good and Phil Hughes was already dealing with performance declines over the past few seasons.
  • jammerjammer Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Tigers bullpen is deplorable!
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    jammer wrote: »
    Tigers bullpen is deplorable!

    That's the one constant that you can depend on year after year in baseball about 75% of the Bullpens suck. Been looking more and more at 1st5 betting. Also I think I'm being generous when I say 75% in could be worst.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 52-43, -2.27u
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Mariners/Leake -150

    As we've seen so far this season, despite his potential, right now Fulmer is not ready for the MLB level as he still has massive control issues. In his 4 games so far, Fulmer has walked 9 batters, hit 2 with pitches, plus a wild pitch for good measure. He's also pitching on 2 days rest after throwing 24 pitches in relief on 4/20 against Houston. It's a situation that's similar to the James Shields situation that same day. While the Mariners offense isn't as touted as the Astros it still ranks 9th best in the MLB so far this season in OPS.

    Marlins/Garcia +220

    Walker Beuhler makes his season debut for the Dodgers tonight vs one of the worst hitting teams in the MLB against RHP. That said, while he has excellent potential, with only 6 career AAA starts under his belt, I'm not quite sure he's fully ready to be making the jump up to the MLB level. His 3 starts this year in AAA showed a lot of positive batted ball results....but he wasn't missing enough bats with a below average 7.1% swinging strike rate. He gets matched up against Marlins LHP Jarlin Garcia who has held the Mets and the Yankees to only 1 total hit across 11 IP over his last 2 starts. The Dodgers have had their troubles vs LHP so far this season ranking 25th overall in the MLB with a .639 OPS. I like Beuhler long term, but for his 1st time out and with the team's struggles vs lefties, I highly disagree with him being this much of a favorite.

    Rockies/Bettis -164

    One has to wonder when the Padres are going to pull the plug on this Bryan Mitchell in the rotation project. In his 19.2 IP so far, Mitchell has allowed 38 baserunners (20 via hit, 18 via BB/HBP), is running a horrendous 55% strikes thrown rate, and has a equally bad Swinging Strike rate of only 3.6%. If you can't miss bats in Coors Field you're going to get SMOKED. For the Rockies, Chad Bettis will be on the mound today looking to build on his strong start so far this season. While he has his own control issues as well (10 BBs in 25 IP) he is missing bats at a greater rate than Mitchell and is closer to the MLB average at 8.5%. Bettis is certainly due for regression but he should be relatively safe today against a Padres offense that ranked 27th overall in OPS in the MLB.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 52-46, -6.41u

    Mets/Wheeler +154

    This is a pretty even matchup in my opinion. Both Zack Wheeler and Luke Weaver are guys with good K stuff, Swinging Strike Rates that are around the MLB average, both can struggle with pitch efficiency at times, and both are pitching against teams that have been WAY better vs RHP than vs LHP. The only difference between the two is that, this will be the 2nd time the Mets have seen Weaver this month. Last time Weaver faced the Mets, he was able to go 5 IP and only allow 1 ER, but he did allow 8 base-runners and only generated 2 Swings and Misses on the day. That lineup also did not have Michael Conforto in it who is much better hitting in his career vs RHP (.894 OPS) than he is vs LHP (.592 OPS).

    Rockies/Freeland -146

    I'm going back to the well again tonight despite the unbelievable bullpen meltdown by the Rockies last night. The main reason why is because rookie LHP Eric Lauer will be making his MLB career debut tonight, only the 7th pitcher to do so in Coors Field history. The previous 6 debuts have resulted in a 7.27 ERA with only 1 win and no more than 3 K's by any of the rookies. The Rockies are also the 5th best team in the MLB against LHP with an .810 OPS against. Despite the meltdown, the Rockies were able to save their best bullpen arms (Shaw, Ottavino, Davis).

    Twins/Berrios +133

    Jose Berrios has been one of the best SP so far this season and features one of the best curveballs in the MLB that is holding opponents to a 0.095 AVG against on 30% usage. He's also been featuring a Sinker that he throws around 23% of time. The Yankees big bats struggles vs the curveball from last season have continued in 2018. Judge, Stanton, Sanchez, and Austin all currently have Whiff Rates above 40% when they swing at curveballs. On the mound for the Yanks will be CC Sabathia, who has been generating some positive results but he's also been producing some troubling Pitch F/X trends. The movement on his cutter has lost an inch of vertical and 2 inches of horizontal movement to go along with a max velocity decline of about 3mph from this time last year. His last time out against the Blue Jays he was only able to generate 3 swings and misses (4.2%). Do I think it's permanent? Probably not. I think it's just more a case of that hip issue of his still not being 100%.

    Blue Jays/Happ +103

    This is a pure BvP play for me. J.A Happ has faced this group of Red Sox a ton in his career and has dominated them. Across 169 Plate Appearances, current Red Sox hitters have a .196 AVG with a .567 OPS against Happ. This includes only 1 player with an OPS mark above .700 (JD Martinez: .717 OPS). Surprisingly, the Red Sox are also the 2nd worst team in the MLB right now against LHP in OPS (.592 OPS) only ahead of the Washington Nationals.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 55-47, -3.84u
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Mariners/Hernandez -138

    Outside of his start against the Giants, King Felix has been quite serviceable allowing 3 ER or less in his other 4 starts so far this season. He hasn't faced many of the players on this current White Sox roster, but he has had success against Jose Abreu (.143 AVG, .464 OPS). It also helps that the one player that has given Hernandez trouble, Wellington Castillo (.667 AVG, 3.417 OPS), is NOT in the lineup today. For the White Sox, James Shields is on the mound for them on standard rest this time after pitching on 1 day rest his last time out. You have to wonder though if he recovered enough in between starts as he did throw a combined 139 pitches in those two games in 3 days situation. The Mariners have also had success against Shields in the past with a .339 AVG and a .959 OPS across 273 Plate Appearances. This includes OPS marks above .900 for Seager, Cano, Gordon, and Segura.

    Minnesota/Lynn +164

    Sonny Gray continues to have issues pitching in Yankee Stadium. After his last time out, Gray now has a career 5.80 ERA in Yankee Stadium as opposed to a career 3.11 ERA everywhere else. Today he faces a Twins team that has mixed success against him. The team only has a .237 AVG with a .722 OPS against him....but Brian Dozier, Jason Castro, and Miguel Sano all have OPS marks above .900. The total team performance seems to be dragged down by Logan Morrison (32 of the 105 PA) who only has a .194 AVG/.445 OPS. On the other side Lance Lynn will be on the mound with his own fair share of problems. Probably due in part to the late start to camp, Lynn has been having control issues so far this season with a paltry 56% strikes thrown rate, the lowest mark in his career. When he is throwing strikes though he's missing bats as he's generated a solid above average 13% Swinging Strike Rate. Most of the Yankees have also never faced Lynn before with Neil Walker and Giancarlo Stanton being the only ones with significant Plate Appearances against him.

    Houston/Verlander -200

    Pure BvP play here. Justin Verlander has dominated this current roster of Angels in his career with a .123 AVG, .465 OPS against him across 198 PA. Albert Pujols is the only player with an OPS mark above .750. Even Mike Trout has been handled (.100 AVG, .708 OPS in 26 PA). On the other side Nick Tropeano has to face the strong Astros offense ....in a day game....WITH the roof open at Minute Maid Park. That's a very favorable hitting environment for the Astros who have as a team been running an OPS mark that's about .50 basis higher in day games over night games over the past 2 seasons. Doesn't help that Tropeano has already allowed a .419 AVG with a 1.051 OPS against the Astros in the 34 PA he has faced them.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Adding ...

    Scherzer/Nationals -160
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 58-48, -1.84u
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Reds/Bailey +121

    Despite their 5-19 record, the Reds are actually the 5th best offensive team vs LHP so far this season in terms of OPS with a .800 mark. Today they get matched up against LHP Sean Newcomb who has been struggling to limit base-runners due to his control issues (4.6 BB/9 so far, 33 base-runners in 21.2 IP). On the Cincy side, Homer Bailey will be making his 6th start of the season. Neither SP has significant BvP stats to lean on, but Bailey has handled 1B Freddie Freeman well limiting him to a .286 AVG with a .619 OPS thanks to 0 extra base hits in the 15 times they've faced each other. With Cincy's offense starting to wake up lately it's enough to take a chance on a home dog on a getaway day.

    Mets/Syndergaard -105

    A rematch of the March 29th game between two really good pitchers with solid BvP stats against the opposing teams they are facing. I'll side with the Mets here based on the fact that for this current group of players, despite the paltry .235 AVG against, when they have made contact against CarMa it has been of the extra base variety thus generating their team OPS mark of .804. The grouping of Cespedes, Gonzalez, Bruce, and Cabrera have generated 9 XBH out of the 15 hits they have against Martinez. Martinez also has also been dealing with some wildness as his is currently running a career high 4.8 BB/9 rate. With as patient as this Mets team has shown to be, Martinez could be at risk of having an inefficient day.

    Brewers/Anderson +137

    Anderson and Hendricks are solid pitchers with favorable BvP stats against each other's teams. However, Chase Anderson really doesn't get enough credit as one of the better SP in the MLB after generating a solid 12-4 record with a 2.74 ERA last year. This is purely a bet against the line as Anderson's .208 AVG /.719 OPS against vs Cubs suggests that he shouldn't be this much of a dog. Especially considering that this includes OPS marks below .700 for Heyward, Russell, Rizzo, Schwarber, and Baez. The only Cub with significant favorable BvP stats is Kris Bryant (1.257 OPS) who might not be in the lineup due to concussion symptom protocols.

    Tigers/Fulmer +144

    I can't understand Fulmer being a dog here considering the difference in Quality between him and Nova as well as the fact that the Pirates have been in poor form. The BvP data also supports Fulmer here, albeit a limited sample size. In 33 PA against him, current Pirates have a .161 AVG with a .470 OPS compared to Ivan Nova's marks of a .326 AVG/.932 OPS against across 50 PA against current Tigers. Finally, last time Fulmer faced the Pirates, he shut them out across 8 IP allowing only 6 base-runners in the process.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 58-52, -5.89u
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Tigers/Fiers +108

    Continued Tillman fades ...

    Indians/Kluber -240

    Corey Kluber has been nearly unhittable at home over the past 2 seasons+. Across the last 28 homes games he's pitched, he's posted a 1.94 ERA with an AVERAGE of 9.1 K's and only 4.5 hits allowed per game. Today he faces a Mariners team that he has performed quite well against. Current Mariners have a .224 AVG against with a .663 OPS and a 24.1 % K rate against him. For the Mariners, Erasmo Ramirez will be making his 2nd start of the season after coming off the DL due to a lat strain. Despite getting 3 MiLB rehab starts, he did not look like he was ready to jump into the MLB rotation considering he missed all of spring training. As we've seen with most of the late signing SPs, April has been a rough month for SPs who missed out on spring.

    Mets/deGrom -158

    Pure BvP play here. Current Padres have a .234 AVG with a .602 OPS and a 26.1% K rate across 69 Plate Appearances vs deGrom. Current Mets have a .411 AVG with a 1.120 OPS and a low 11.4% K rate vs Clayton Richard.

    Cardinals/Mikolas -125

    The Cardinals offense has been heating up over the past 7 days thanks to Paul deJong and the return of Tommy Pham from his groin injury. In the series vs the Mets, Pham went 7/10 with 3 R, HR, 3 RBI. They'll have Miles Mikolas on the mound coming off of back to back 7 IP wins due to his improved strike throwing efficiency (currently running 70%). For the Pirates, LHP Steven Brault will be on the mound having struggled with his command over the last 3 starts. He's allowed 21 baserunners over the last 16 IP with a near 1:1 BB to K ratio to go along with it.

    Reds/Castillo +104

    Same thing here I said about Phil Hughes last time out. The history for SPs coming back from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome is not good. In his 1st game back, Hughes allowed 7 baserunners in 3 IP including 5 hard hit contact batted balls against the lowly Rays offense. Today he faces a Reds offense that has been waking up the last few games with the return of Schebler and Eugenio Suarez. Luis Castillo will be on the mound for the Reds having allowed at least 3 ER in every start so far this season. While his up front stats do not seem very desirable, his peripherals do look quite good. He's running a very solid 14% SwStr rate, a decent 64% strike thrown rate, and his Line Drive Batted Ball% is only slightly above average at 22%. I'm willing to bet that there is some unluckiness with his performances so far this season.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 61-45, -5.1u

    D-Backs/Corbin -132

    Corbin has been pitching brilliantly so far this season and the sabermetrics so far are indicating that his improvement is for real. Through his 5 starts so far, Corbin is generating an 18.7% Swinging Strike Rate, an excellent Groundball rate of 54%, and his Runners Left on Base and HR/FB Ratios Rate are within the MLB norm. This is all leading to a FIP (2.00) that is pretty much the same as his ERA (1.87). Enough with the flattering though, today he faces a Washington Nationals team that ranks 2nd worst in the MLB in OPS against LHP at .616. With Rendon, Eaton, and Murphy down, Zimmerman struggling....teams have been able to work around Bryce Harper with more ease as he hasn't had a HR since April 16th when Rendon went down. To make matters worse, the one player who has been hot (Michael Taylor) is now sidelined with a groin injury.

    Cardinals/Flaherty -121

    I'm not going to keep repeating myself in regards to Trevor Williams peripherals not supporting his performance so far this season. The only thing I will add is that his Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) right now is over 1 1/2 runs higher than his ERA which supports my upcoming regression statements (3.72 FIP vs 2.15 ERA). For the Cardinals, rookie Jack Flaherty will be on the mound for them for his 2nd start of the season. His 1st time out, he held a superior offense (Milwaukee) to only 1 ER over 5 IP with 9 Ks. He also generated a 15% SwStr Rate which continues a trend he started last season during his cup of coffee in September. He's going to be a good pitcher for many year for the Cardinals.

    Orioles/Cashner -139

    Liriano vs RHB heavy teams...fade him. Today he's facing the righty heavy offense of the Orioles who have an OPS mark that is 85 basis points higher vs LHP compared to RHP. Liriano himself has continued his heavy splits from the past few years as so far this season as LHB are posting a .045 AVG/.307 OPS compared to RHB posting a .228 AVG/.742 OPS. Cashner will be on the mound for the Orioles facing a very sporadic Tigers offense that has suddenly gone cold again. Cashner does have solid BvP stats against the Tigers with a .206 AVG/.672 OPS in his career.

    Rockies/Marquez -117

    Not much BvP data on either side but this is pure team batting splits stat play for me. The Miami Marlins are currently the worst team in the MLB in OPS vs RHP (.579 OPS), the Colorado Rockies are 4th best in the MLB vs LHP (.818 OPS). Rockies SP German Marquez is right handed, Marlins SP Caleb Smith is left handed.

    Reds/Romano +135

    I don't particularly like Romano....but 1 thing he does well is he pitches decent enough to at least keep the Reds in games. Of his 21 career starts so far, Romano has allowed 4 ER or fewer in 17 of them. For what it's worth, Romano has been inducing quite a bit of weak contact so far this season with a solid below average 16% Line Drive batted ball rate. With a struggling Jake Odorizzi on the mound today and a Cincinnati offense that has scored 4 runs or more in each of its last 5 games....I'm willing to take a rare chance on Romano to sneak a win here.
  • BuckyBadgerBuckyBadger Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    BB--should your record be 61-54 not 61-45?
  • bluejakebluejake Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    BB--should your record be 61-54 not 61-45?

    Thank God I am not the only IRS agent on the site, just kidding was a correctional officer in a maximum security prison for 25 years.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    bluejake wrote: »
    Thank God I am not the only IRS agent on the site, just kidding was a correctional officer in a maximum security prison for 25 years.


    Yup, just flipped the numbers. Should be 54 losses. Will update YTD after today, but units are still correct.

    Adding Marquez/Rockies -111.

    Prior was scratched due to pitcher change.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 62-59, -8.87u
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Rockies/Bettis -113

    I'm not backing down from what the stats say so far this season. The Marlins are still currently the worst team in the MLB in OPS vs RHP by a WIDE margin (.582 OPS) and the Rockies are still the 4th best in the MLB vs LHP (.816 OPS).

    Mariners/Gonzales +102

    It's time for the Indians to start thinking about other potential options for their #5 SP cause Josh Tomlin looks even worse than he was at times last season. His AVG and MAX fastball velocities are down another tick from last season, his Fly Ball Batted Ball rate is up, and his Line Drive Rate is at 28%. Today he faces a Mariners team that has owned him in the past with a .345 AVG, 1.018 OPS against across 55 plate appearances.

    Baltimore/Gausman -151

    Sans his opening day start, Kevin Gausman has been pitching quite well this season. Minus that game, Gausman has racked up double digit swings and misses, has held opponents to a .247 AVG, and has limited walks (5 in 25 IP). Today he faces a team that he has had previous success against as current Tigers batters are posting a .194 AVG/.587 OPS against him. This includes a combined 7 for 46 (.152 AVG) from the Tigers heart of the batting order, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Nick Castellanos.

    Arizona/Ray +109

    The Nationals struggles vs LHP continues as they still rank 5th worst in baseball in terms of OPS against southpaws. Today they face one of the hardest throwing LHP in baseball in Robbie Ray who is starting to figure things out after a rough start to the season. While still inefficient, Ray posted his best strike throwing rate of the season last time out at 65%. As long as Ray can maintain that control he should do well today, if not, it could be trouble as the Nationals are one of the most patient offenses in baseball. On the flipside, Gio Gonzalez is on the mound for the Nats and while he is a solid SP, the Diamondbacks have owned him in the past. Current D-backs hitter have a .432 AVG/1.036 OPS against him. The 3,4,5 hitters in the D-backs lineup are a combined 18 for 36 against him (.500 AVG).

    Mets/Wheeler -124

    Continued Bryan Mitchell fade as he continues to struggle to throw strikes (55% strike rate) or miss bats (4% swinging strike rate). Today he faces a Mets offense that is way better vs RHP (.718 OPS) than vs LHP (.605 OPS).
  • bluejakebluejake Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    baseball wrote: »
    YTD: 62-59, -8.87u

    B, I have you going 1-4 yesterday -3,77, 61-54 going in makes it 62-58, -3.77 -501= -8.77 please double check me whenever U get a chance. Thank You for sharing.
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