Betting Talk

Conversation about when to wager

24

Comments

  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    R40 wrote: »
    You mentioned the Jazz. If we are going to bet the Jazz, we have to assume we think the Jazz are the best side every day. If we are betting them every day, we must assume that we must be right or why would be bet them.

    Assuming we can bet the Jazz blindly on knowledge that they are going to win, we will most likely be getting an undervalued price early as the market is not recognizing the value of the Jazz. Or the Spurs or Patriots or whatever market-beating team we would hypothetically bet on. At not time will betting at the close be the most inefficient line on average.

    I was talking about obi telling me the Jazz lost 6 straight ats and whatever else about the Jazz specifically.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I was talking about obi telling me the Jazz lost 6 straight ats and whatever else about the Jazz specifically.

    Obi is having a hard time following. Guy gets high and mighty and then throws in actual ATS record for the Jazz.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    Obi , let me ask you a question , first almost totally agree on what your saying. question , how does the public tend to bet , do we agree favorites and over ? if that is correct ,and my line tells me a favorite is under valued ,i should bet it right away. If my line says a dog has value and the public tends to bet favorites, i should wait as long as i can ?

    Hey Jets,
    Yes we can agree on that. The public tends to bet the Favorites and the Overs. I can also agree -in general- about the second part of your question, however, when you like an underdog and you see a line that offers value, there's a big chance the sharps like this value too. Do you wait? Or do you bet immediately hoping to be ahead of the sharps? It's all in the game of finding the best lines.

    jets96 wrote: »
    For me personally , am betting favorites early and dogs as late as i can.
    There are no black and white rules, not every model is the same, not everybody looks at the same angles, so most definitely, if it works for you and your getting CLV and hopefully also a profit, continue doing it.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    Obi One wrote: »
    Hey Jets,
    Yes we can agree on that. The public tends to bet the Favorites and the Overs. I can also agree -in general- about the second part of your question, however, when you like an underdog and you see a line that offers value, there's a big chance the sharps like this value too. Do you wait? Or do you bet immediately hoping to be ahead of the sharps? It's all in the game of finding the best lines.



    There are no black and white rules, not every model is the same, not everybody looks at the same angles, so most definitely, if it works for you and your getting CLV and hopefully also a profit, continue doing it.

    so just bet favorites and overs early and you should have value, can we test that theory somehow?
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    obi thank your your advise
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    maybe we can just for shits and giggles do it with todays games we got the openers and the currents all we need to do is add the closers
    Pacers opened fav now dog
    pacers 200 now 202 more over
    grizz 206 now 211 more over
    bulls 3 now 3.5 more fav
    rockets 6 now 5.5 less fav
    bucks 216.5 now 214 less over
    rap 5 now 5.5 more fav
    pistons 213 now 212 less over
    Pelicans 5 now 5.5 more fav
    kings 224 now 223.5 less over
    cavs 228.5 now 230 more over
    nugs 2 now 3.5 more fav
    mag 227 now 224 less over
    lakers 6 now 6.5 more fav

    currently more favorite looks like a real thing but everythign else seems like whatever
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    dan , not sure who your talking to and dont want to step obi toes, but that not WHAT am saying, you still have to make a line thats better then anyone else has, is my n.o -8 better then anyone elses , i doubt it , but if they say davis is playing that line my go up ...if he is not playing and that line goes down , am not so worried about it because its sac , if it were some top team and he didnt play , id be worried.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    so just bet favorites and overs early and you should have value, can we test that theory somehow?

    No need. The books pay no attention to public money. They move lines on big money and marked accounts.,
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    so just bet favorites and overs early and you should have value, can we test that theory somehow?

    NO,
    this is not the correct assumption, because you don't know how his model is made. I said that if it works for him and he has been getting CLV and profit as a result, he should continue doing it.

    Given your history on the forum and the way you ask your questions, it seems like you're in search for the holy grail while using a '16 MacBook, while not taking into account the mega-computers and data-sets which some of the sharp groups have. Is there any chance that you have read any of the basketball papers that have been discussed at Sloan Sports and Statistics Conference this year? Have you seen what data Second Spectrum can provide to the people willing to pay mega-money for that data?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    dan , not sure who your talking to and dont want to step obi toes, but that not WHAT am saying, you still have to make a line thats better then anyone else has, is my n.o -8 better then anyone elses , i doubt it , but if they say davis is playing that line my go up ...if he is not playing and that line goes down , am not so worried about it because its sac , if it were some top team and he didnt play , id be worried.

    i got excited when i read your theory of wait on dogs and bet faves, somehow you turned that into an insult that was never my intent to you or Obi. He is rude so what, I dont care rude is ok I am just trying to learn. I still think you bet when the line is good I think waiting gives opportunity for the line to sharpen but honestly I dont know that with data as in fact is true. I want to get the best return and if somehow that helps me, thank you very much!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    Obi One wrote: »
    NO,
    this is not the correct assumption, because you don't know how his model is made. I said that if it works for him and he has been getting CLV and profit as a result, he should continue doing it.

    Given your history on the forum and the way you ask your questions, it seems like you're in search for the holy grail while using a '16 MacBook, while not taking into account the mega-computers and data-sets which some of the sharp groups have. Is there any chance that you have read any of the basketball papers that have been discussed at Sloan Sports and Statistics Conference this year? Have you seen what data Second Spectrum can provide to the people willing to pay mega-money for that data?

    because you see profit for something that does not make it good or true. it could be variance who knows only way to know if that is true is with data. I do not know what data I am getting but I will put my NBA lines for closeness up against any one that is talking to me here on this forum. And my apologies if I am what caused you to be rude, if not and you are just rude, chive on!
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    i got excited when i read your theory of wait on dogs and bet faves, somehow you turned that into an insult that was never my intent to you or Obi. He is rude so what, I dont care rude is ok I am just trying to learn. I still think you bet when the line is good I think waiting gives opportunity for the line to sharpen but honestly I dont know that with data as in fact is true. I want to get the best return and if somehow that helps me, thank you very much!

    There is no magic formula for winning. You bet the lines you like when you like them and increase your bet size when the lines become more favorable. However, at this point, you would be wise to simply stick with your initial bets. You should track each of your bets and determine how often you beat the closing line and by how much. That will give you the best idea of how well your strategy is working.

    The easier way to win money gambling is to bet numbers at smaller books and throw out the model.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    R40 wrote: »
    There is no magic formula for winning. You bet the lines you like when you like them and increase your bet size when the lines become more favorable. However, at this point, you would be wise to simply stick with your initial bets. You should track each of your bets and determine how often you beat the closing line and by how much. That will give you the best idea of how well your strategy is working.

    The easier way to win money gambling is to bet numbers at smaller books and throw out the model.

    Betting against the market is horrible advice.

    You just said earlier that the books only move lines on 'big money and marked accounts'. As you may know, marked accounts get marked for beating the market, which is a sign of a long term winner. Kind of contradictory to advise somebody to bet against those marked accounts who according to you are moving the market-lines.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    dan wasnt being rude at all, i have no problems with you
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    Obi One wrote: »
    Betting against the market is horrible advice.

    You just said earlier that the books only move lines on 'big money and marked accounts'. As you may know, marked accounts get marked for beating the market, which is a sign of a long term winner. Kind of contradictory to advise somebody to bet against those marked accounts who according to you are moving the market-lines.

    I am not giving advice. If I was, you would be getting some.

    Betting against the market is advisable. I doubt very seriously that when winning gamblers see a number move to -3.5 and they think it is a winner, they second guess their decision. You can either beat the market or you can't.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    because you see profit for something that does not make it good or true. it could be variance who knows only way to know if that is true is with data. I do not know what data I am getting but I will put my NBA lines for closeness up against any one that is talking to me here on this forum. And my apologies if I am what caused you to be rude, if not and you are just rude, chive on!

    No need to apologize,
    I was being slightly rude to hammer home the point that none of your assumptions matter unless you can compare the lines vs your powerrankings.

    Also that this whole discussion has been handled in previous discussions here on BT about CLV.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    hey guys what about this pathetic stat of mine
    I have 89 over unders bet
    33 went against me and 56 went for me and I still only netted .46% value
    how in the world can that be????

    when its bad -10% when its good 6.93% is that normal????
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    That is called variance. If you can keep it up, you should hit about 55% of your bets. I am guessing we are seeing some variance in your numbers.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    Variance by the way is our favorite word at Betting Talk.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    yeah but how can it swing that wide, I want to minimize those high negatives
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    yeah but how can it swing that wide, I want to minimize those high negatives

    You ain't seen nothing yet.
  • jmjm Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I chose the Jazz as only an example it could the Nuggets, Broncos Raiders who cares but the question is I have no model, I have no idea what the line could even possibly do, I just want to bet on the JAZZ or nuggets or broncos or raiders when is the best time to bet it for me in this situation?

    What about the Bulls? What is their best time?
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    yeah but how can it swing that wide, I want to minimize those high negatives

    The only way to minimize variance is to minimize its effects with bankroll management. That is why bet sizing is the most important part of gambling and overconfidence leads to ruin.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    R40 wrote: »
    The only way to minimize variance is to minimize its effects with bankroll management. That is why bet sizing is the most important part of gambling and overconfidence leads to ruin.

    yes and I have been dying to get any info on how to use a proper kelly method for my wagers, I can plainly see flat betting will not be the best route for me!
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    yes and I have been dying to get any info on how to use a proper kelly method for my wagers, I can plainly see flat betting will not be the best route for me!

    Wrong. Flat betting is the only way for you to go. You should not bet more than 1% on any of your bets. And if you are using a model, you might want to reduce that to 0.5% if you plan on betting with high volume.

    Once you have bet for 100s of bets and turned a positive return, you can up your betting allocations. As a guideline, you would bet 2% on something that was basically a 53% bet and 3% on a 56% bet.

    But until you establish that you having a winning model with a substantial number of bets, you should not exceed 1% if you can help it.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    And now we come to the most important thing for you to address as a gambler. And that is how much are you willing to lose in your gambling lifetime before you quit. Because you are almost assuredly going to lose it. You should bet no more than 1% of that amount. That should be a fairly small number if you are smart. Certainly no more than 10K. That means you never bet more than $100 per bet.

    And that is where we generally go off the rails.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    R40 wrote: »
    Wrong. Flat betting is the only way for you to go. You should not bet more than 1% on any of your bets. And if you are using a model, you might want to reduce that to 0.5% if you plan on betting with high volume.

    Once you have bet for 100s of bets and turned a positive return, you can up your betting allocations. As a guideline, you would bet 2% on something that was basically a 53% bet and 3% on a 56% bet.

    But until you establish that you having a winning model with a substantial number of bets, you should not exceed 1% if you can help it.

    No, you're wrong R40,
    Betting a flat percentage of your bankroll is a form of Kelly Staking,
    Betting a flat amount, regardless of your bankroll, that is what most people refer to as 'flat betting'
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    Obi One wrote: »
    No, you're wrong R40,
    Betting a flat percentage of your bankroll is a form of Kelly Staking,
    Betting a flat amount, regardless of your bankroll, that is what most people refer to as 'flat betting'

    Kelly betting is suicide. Anyone attempting Kelly will overbet and get slaughtered unless they actually know what they are doing which is few and far between and certainly not danshan.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    Obi One wrote: »
    No, you're wrong R40,
    Betting a flat percentage of your bankroll is a form of Kelly Staking,
    Betting a flat amount, regardless of your bankroll, that is what most people refer to as 'flat betting'

    Before this one goes off the rails,
    You're advice is correct, but your use of the term 'flat-betting' is wrong.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2018
    Obi One wrote: »
    Before this one goes off the rails,
    You're advice is correct, but your use of the term 'flat-betting' is wrong.

    That is a technicality. A flat bettor is someone that is going to bet X amount per game. That is generally going to be the least they can bet and still stay interested.
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