Betting Talk

nba 17/18

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Comments

  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    I took the Under again
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    sorry just seen this ....nothing for me last night.
    Interesting that those gsw lines were so off and now that they are back in cleve my line is right on ...gsw -4.81 so depending on how the masses ,ill see if i have a play
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    I got Cavs +7 212.5, so I would take the Warriors for sure with +4 no doubt it will probably keep rising

    so my bet is
    Warriors -4.5
    Under 217
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    id like to see -3.5 or -6 ....who knows
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    505 gsw -3.5

    luck
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    sticking with favorites early dogs late....

    507 gsw -5

    luck
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    I see 5 dimes has a line up for game 5, gsw -6, I know basically what my line would be if say cleve won game 4 ,and am thinking cleve +6 is a pretty good number to take.If cleve wins i think that line would drop and not go up further then 6 , am really thinking about dumping on cleve now .
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    wont be a game 5, LOL
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    but it doesnt cost me anything , and am getting GREAT number
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    if it goes to game 5, Cavs will be +12 or higher, IMHO
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    of course i was looking at something completely different and was thinking the game was in clev ...da da da
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited September 2018
    Jets96, I hope I have not overstepped here. If I have please let me know and allow me to step backwards as soon as possible. I took all your plays from 1/26/18 to 5/24/18 and placed them in a spreadsheet along with the result of each play. The idea was the hypothetical question: what would have happened if I had tailed you from 1/26/18 to 4/16/18 instead of generating my own plays. (It appears I would have won around 10 units instead of dropping 56.)

    I also filtered your plays according to individual teams, and thought the result was interesting. There were 14 teams for which you picked 57% or better: Nets, Cavaliers, Clippers, Heat, Pacers, Celtics, Pelicans, Trailblazers, Rockets, Lakers, Magic, Jazz, Seventysixers, and Kings. Your win/loss record for those 14 teams was 58-18. For all the other teams the results were 20-40.

    I am thinking that most of those 14 teams last year were fairly stable teams, usually well-coached, which, even if they didn’t win, put out a fairly consistent product every night. Most of the other teams were not (excepting Warriors 1-1 and Spurs 1-2). But even the Spurs, obviously well coached, were de-stabilized by injuries, during that period, I believe. But for one reason or another, the other teams couldn’t be counted on to play consistently every night, whether consistently bad, or consistently good. This would make it more difficult to assign point values to the different aspects of their games.

    Do you think there could be any value in trying to determine inconsistent teams beforehand and then simply not betting on them when the numbers are in their favor?
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited September 2018
    If i could wouldnt know how to do it , not sure nets , lakers , jazz or kings were close to stable.
    I think thats why my playoff records are off the charts the past couple of years. 20-8-1 this past year and 28-7 the year before, taking bad teams out of the mix and most teams at full strength helps .
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited September 2018
    Here are the records for the 14:

    bk 1 0 100.00%
    cle 5 0 100.00%
    lac 5 0 100.00%
    mia 2 0 100.00%
    ind 8 1 88.89%
    bos 6 1 85.71%
    nop 4 1 80.00%
    por 5 2 71.43%
    hou 2 1 66.67%
    lal 2 1 66.67%
    orl 4 2 66.67%
    ut 4 2 66.67%
    phi 6 4 60.00%
    sac 4 3 57.14%

    - - - Updated - - -

    Here is for the other 15:

    dal 3 3 50.00%
    den 2 2 50.00%
    det 2 2 50.00%
    gs 1 1 50.00%
    mn 2 2 50.00%
    tor 3 4 42.86%
    mil 1 2 33.33%
    okc 1 2 33.33%
    phx 2 4 33.33%
    sa 1 2 33.33%
    wsh 1 3 25.00%
    atl 1 4 20.00%
    cha 0 2 0.00%
    mem 0 2 0.00%
    ny 0 5 0.00%
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited September 2018
    now to figure out a way to forecast those bad teams in advance or over the course of the season .
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited September 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    now to figure out a way to forecast those bad teams in advance or over the course of the season .

    I was thinking of maybe some kind of standard deviation measure — something that gives an indication of how undependable a team can be from day to day...
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited September 2018
    Can I email you ? Just ask mod for email address.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited September 2018
    Sounds great jets96...Not sure how to ask mod, though.
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