Betting Talk

- Soccer 2017/2018 Season -

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Comments

  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2018
    I asked about 3 way betting but basically what I hear you saying is a half goal is worth about 66% of the price

    so in my scenario
    +180 would go to +119, right?

    thanks for the reply!
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I asked about 3 way betting but basically what I hear you saying is a half goal is worth about 66% of the price

    so in my scenario
    +180 would go to +119, right?


    thanks for the reply!

    No,
    There is no scenario in 3-way betting where a team gets 'half a goal', because in 3 way betting there's no need for 'half a goal'. Three-way betting (win/draw/lose) has the probability for all possible outcomes of the game. What would you need the 'half a goal' for if not for 2-way handicapped betting?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2018
    ok but is my math correct? is that the correct number at +180?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2018
    honestly no one would help me with the home field advantage rule so I did the only thing I could think of to get a workaround and I figured out what is home field advantage worth in goals and came up with .4956 for HFA BUT the problem was for me it seemed hard probably do to asian and more stuff that I could not determine the actual value of the half goal so that is why I asked. I use a comparative approach to generate a line and need to account for home field advantage when I am comparing common opponents to my power rankings, so this is why I need the moneyline value of .4956 goals, if that gibberish makes any form of sense.
    so the question is if a team A
    is +180 in my 3 way comparison on neutral field and if they were home they would now be +119 since they are home is that correct? I know there is no perfection and to you this method may be flawed but irregardless of whether my method is flawed overall the question is does +180 change to +119 from neutral to home assuming 66% from your examples.

    thanks again

    - - - Updated - - -

    and LOL, now I might actually understand why everyone was like a half goal in 3 way, what are you doing??? LOL, wonder why nobody helped me or thought I was crazy!
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2018
    I'm sorry but I can't answer your question properly right now......
    Something with the question your asking is simply 'off' to me.
    I might get back to you later
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2018
    ok thanks, hope you can later
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited August 2018
    any update on answer for me? I really appreciate the help if you can
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    any update on answer for me? I really appreciate the help if you can

    Nothing yet,
    If you really need an answer, check with the football data guys on twitter. There's a big and smart community out there.

    Have you read Soccermatics?
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