Betting Talk

Casino game: Baccarat

turtle*turtle* Member
edited September 2010 in Sports Betting
This isn't sports related but there isn't a section for non-sporting bets.

I just picked up and found out about this game at local casino and found bodog has it as well. Been playing last couple of times and walked away with about 3x what i went in with locally and lost up the butt via bodog( starting to think its rigged)

Simple game For those who dont know... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baccarat

I was wondering is there a strategy to this? or a system people attempt to follow. To me its a COMPLETE game of luck, kinda like betting on a coinflip. But i see all these people taking notes of cards that came out and trying to develop patterns. These are mainly older people, non-white guys as well. I talked to an older guy in chinese and he told me on a normal night he walks away with losing $500 but he doesn't mind because there has been a couple nights where he would just walk away with $15,000, that is a LOT, him betting in $25-50 a hand. Given you get luck bet $50 on player and $50 on a dragon bonus. The dragon bonus i guess is special thing only at my local place, it goes by how much points one person beats the other by. I forget the numbers but that is where you make the money he said.

Anyone have some insight or is this a PURE luck game?

Comments

  • kmherring3kmherring3 Senior Member
    edited September 2010
    It is pretty much luck. People take notes of the results because they may have systems like, bet the banker after three straight player wins, but in the end its just flipping coins. I've won great money at the game and I've lost also. Never played online. Its a fun game in person. When your hot and on a streak people will start to fade you like a mother. Its fun to bust their asses. Also its the only game, other than poker, that the player can touch the cards. The tie is a suckers bet as is any type of progressive or bonus play. I would suggest craps. It is alot more exciting to me. In the end there is no advantage play in baccarat I'm aware of.
  • BookbrakerBookbraker Senior Member
    edited September 2010
    arn't the odds of winning at this game one of the best, or maybe the very best winning percentage casino game? I don't play myself.
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited September 2010
    Bookbraker wrote: »
    arn't the odds of winning at this game one of the best, or maybe the very best winning percentage casino game? I don't play myself.

    Yeah I believe betting with the banker is one of the best bets you can make in the casino, slightly worse than betting the Don't Pass and taking odds at craps - but both are -EV bets.

    OP:

    I've never heard of anybody figuring out a way to beat Baccarat. To my knowledge the only beatable casino games are blackjack and video poker unless you find a biased Roulette wheel. Also sports betting and poker of course if you put those in the casino game category.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited September 2010
    I've never heard of anybody figuring out a way to beat Baccarat. To my knowledge the only beatable casino games are blackjack and video poker unless you find a biased Roulette wheel. Also sports betting and poker of course if you put those in the casino game category.

    This is pretty much correct. Under certain circumstances, there are/were other games that can/could be beaten, but that's a solid answer.
  • luvthemoneyluvthemoney Senior Member
    edited September 2010
    Im interested in hearing how to beat video poker .... I love playing black jack and do well sometimes, but I have tried other things at casinos and they never work for me.

    I tried slot machines and have never won a spin in my life, ever its unbelieveable. Also never won at video poker. But if its beatable would love to know how :) give me something else to do at casinos besides blackjack :)

    I had also seen a show on tv a while back, and the guy was talking about best ways to win games at a casino or something like that and he said tha the bets the banker in baccarat often and it works out well for him, i don't know.
  • BigfistBigfist Member
    edited September 2010
    Im interested in hearing how to beat video poker .... I love playing black jack and do well sometimes, but I have tried other things at casinos and they never work for me.

    I tried slot machines and have never won a spin in my life, ever its unbelieveable. Also never won at video poker. But if its beatable would love to know how :) give me something else to do at casinos besides blackjack :)

    I had also seen a show on tv a while back, and the guy was talking about best ways to win games at a casino or something like that and he said tha the bets the banker in baccarat often and it works out well for him, i don't know.

    I don't want to hold myself out as a VP expert, because I am not, but most people who play the game seriously are Bob Dancer disciples. You can go to the website bobdancer.com and order his VP CD and books. My understanding is that two VP games, with perfect strategy, offer more than a 100% return...10/7 double bonus VP and full pay deuces wild (although that game is tough to find and can only be found at the $.25 level). None of this includes, though, cash back, etc., which may make some of the other games profitable as well.
  • spareshooterspareshooter Senior Member
    edited September 2010
    Nothing better to play than a hot craps table. Small line bet, big odds, and place the 6-8
    Will do that this weekend in Laughlin, Nevada.
    Good Luck
    Spare
  • BigfistBigfist Member
    edited September 2010
    Nothing better to play than a hot craps table. Small line bet, big odds, and place the 6-8
    Will do that this weekend in Laughlin, Nevada.
    Good Luck
    Spare

    I am definitely not going to hold myself out as a craps expert either, since I almost never play the game. But I think most experts would tell you that there is no way to get a positive mathematical advantage at a legitimate game of craps, notwithstanding Stanford Wong's book. Tables can be hot, but can just as quickly become cold.
  • spareshooterspareshooter Senior Member
    edited September 2010
    When it turns cold you walk. Don't know about experts, but casinos will tell you the closest to even odds games are craps then blackjack. Like I said earlier, play the line, with odds, and place the 6-8. Stay away from anything in the middle. Good luck
    Spare
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited September 2010
    When it turns cold you walk. Don't know about experts, but casinos will tell you the closest to even odds games are craps then blackjack. Like I said earlier, play the line, with odds, and place the 6-8. Stay away from anything in the middle. Good luck
    Spare

    Are you being serious here? Every roll is independent of the previous roll. There is no hot and cold. Streaks are just mathematical variance. I assumed you meant you just enjoyed playing craps for fun, which is fine, as long as you understand it will always be -EV.
  • spareshooterspareshooter Senior Member
    edited September 2010
    Very serious. Play craps 2-3 times a week. Do I lose, yes, but I have played long enough and often enough to make those losing days much smaller than the winning days. If you stand at a cold table and continue to lose because you believe "mathematically', The table will turn, not smart. +EV and -EV, might be the thing with you experts, but is not a real concern for us old timers who have played the game for over 40 years.
    Good luck with your 7's and 11's
    Spare
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited September 2010
    Very serious. Play craps 2-3 times a week. Do I lose, yes, but I have played long enough and often enough to make those losing days much smaller than the winning days. If you stand at a cold table and continue to lose because you believe "mathematically', The table will turn, not smart. +EV and -EV, might be the thing with you experts, but is not a real concern for us old timers who have played the game for over 40 years.
    Good luck with your 7's and 11's
    Spare

    It's your money and I believe in one's rights to do whatever they want with it, but if you think a craps table can get "hot" or "cold" and you can somehow tell when either is beginning or ending, I don't know what to tell you. Playing the game for 40 years doesn't change the fact that each roll has nothing to do with another.

    I wish you plenty of enjoyment and positive variance.
  • GatorsLeafsBGatorsLeafsB Senior Member
    edited September 2010
    Just because "mathematics" says there can't be hot and cold streaks doesn't mean there isn't. You keep betting your "mathematics" and I'll keep doing instincts and streaks. You ask any long time gambler and they will tell you streaks happen. If you don't believe me then I guess you haven't been gambling long enough
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited September 2010
    Just because "mathematics" says there can't be hot and cold streaks doesn't mean there isn't. You keep betting your "mathematics" and I'll keep doing instincts and streaks. You ask any long time gambler and they will tell you streaks happen. If you don't believe me then I guess you haven't been gambling long enough

    As I mentioned in post #11, "Streaks are just mathematical variance." Of course they happen... the problem is that they're completely random and therefor it's impossible to predict when they are beginning or ending.
  • HelfDogHelfDog Banned
    edited September 2010
    Well it doesnt take a genius to figure out a hot or cold table, i fully agree with spareshooter
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited September 2010
    HelfDog wrote: »
    Well it doesnt take a genius to figure out a hot or cold table, i fully agree with spareshooter

    I give up. :idoit:
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited September 2010
    HelfDog wrote: »
    Well it doesnt take a genius to figure out a hot or cold table, i fully agree with spareshooter

    This is the kind of nonsense stuff we are trying to rid the forum of. (Please see rule #2)

    If streaks at a casino table were easy to "figure out" there would not be hundreds of casinos in this country alone dying for your casino table action, and willing to offer you comps on everything if you played enough throws for enough money. Craps is a -EV game and it isn't up for debate.
  • HavanaHavana Senior Member
    edited September 2010
    Having dealt craps in TN and Vegas in the early 60's, mathematical variance was nearly always referred to as a "hot or cold streak". Even many of the bosses believed in streaks. Many times a dealer would be removed from the table and a new one put in to stop a hot streak. Back then I never even heard the term "mathematical variance". Even today when I approach a craps table and state that "I hope the mathematical variance will be good to me" most dealers have no accurate interrpretation of what I said. These days roulette tables have lighted signs showing a bunch of the previous numbers and colors to induce the myth that something is "due". At "21" tables many times the boss would change decks to try to break a so-called streak. After Thorpe published his thesis on card counting, if the boss thought someone was trying that he'd mumble in my ear that I should deal one round and then shuffle up. Back then we dealt single deck games.
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited September 2010
    Goats, Ed, and Havana have already correctly made the point that you can't predict future outcomes in craps based on past outcomes. To add to it:

    Every roll of the dice is completely independent of the last roll - that's why a game like craps or roulette is considered an "independent trial" gane as opposed to blackjack where future hands are "dependent" on past hands within the same shoe. The dice have no memory.
  • turtle*turtle* Member
    edited September 2010
    question.... doing online baccarat on bodog/bookmaker, are they allowed to cheat? or are there actual laws/rules to prevent them from cheating.

    Getting a 8 beat by a 9 is always possible but god dam its been happening a lot.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited September 2010
    turtle* wrote: »
    question.... doing online baccarat on bodog/bookmaker, are they allowed to cheat? or are there actual laws/rules to prevent them from cheating.

    Getting a 8 beat by a 9 is always possible but god dam its been happening a lot.

    Are they allowed to cheat? They are governed by the country in which they're located, so you'd have to look up the laws of that particular country... and even if it's illegal, you're only recourse against them would be to actually file suit in Costa Rica or wherever. Realistic answer: They can do whatever they want, I don't know why they would bother cheating, but anything's possible, so if you're compelled to play -EV casino games, I'd recommend sticking to a brick and mortar casino.
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited September 2010
    Goats wrote: »
    I give up. :idoit:

    Certain people can't be taught...those people keep the casino businesses and online books alive.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited September 2010
    lumpy19 wrote: »
    Certain people can't be taught...those people keep the casino businesses and online books alive.

    And as I've mentioned multiple times, I don't judge anyone for choosing to play -EV games if they get enjoyment out of them anymore than I judge anyone who blows money on cars, clothes, jewelery, etc. What I find frustrating is when people refuse to acknowledge proven mathematical facts regarding gambling.
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited September 2010
    lumpy19 wrote: »
    Certain people can't be taught...those people keep the casino businesses and online books alive.

    I think almost everyone falls into this trap to some degree. I know when I play blackjack and get on a really good run of cards, a feeling of euphoria comes over me, and I feel like I can't lose. Similarly, when I'm playing poker and everything imaginable is going right, I assume it's will continue to go right. So, let's say I've flopped a set the last 4 times I've raised with a small pocket pair. Now I get that same small pocket pair but in a position where it's a very close decision to open with it or not but normally it's a fold. It's very difficult to have the discipline to fold the hand here even though I know it's right. The vast majority of poker players do not have the discipline and play too many hands when they have run well. Similarly, many players tighten up and play too few hands when they're running bad.

    I remember reading a while back that the human brain is conditioned to believe something will happen again after it's happened 3 or 4 times. It makes sense and I'm sure this has been an integral part of our survival and evolution but when it comes to games where winning and losing is often close to a coinflip, it fails.
  • awfulorvawfulorv Senior Member
    edited September 2010
    Psst, Spareshooter, Ask them what you're supposed to do if you have one more team left on a $20.00 parlay, which will pay $2500.00 if it wins. Go ahead, ask them if you should hedge, and watch the pyrotechnics begin.
  • trofoostrofoos Junior Member

    Getting a 8 beat by a 9 is always possible but god dam its been happening a lot.

  • trofoostrofoos Junior Member

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