Betting Talk

Ravens & HC Harbaugh

I'm not sure who needs to (or wants to) read the below, but I sent it to a friend following the Ravens loss. Yes, I was on Ravens, but regardless what I wrote stands even if I was on Bills.


Ravens. Just 3 points? Versus a not-great Bills D?? Yes, the Ravens are going to sink or swim based on Lamar's play and he did not have a good game. But I'm sorry, I've said this before, Ravens coach Harbaugh is not horrid, but he ain't that good either. I texted you whoever makes best adjustments at the half would win -- Ravens go from getting just 3 points in first half to getting shut out in 2nd half. Zero points. And again, the Buffalo D is VERY average, ranking around #18 or #19 in NFL. I watched the game. Clearly Bills were blitzing from the get-go to stop Lamar, so what does Balt do? I saw countless times where Bills were coming and Ravens could've run draw play or do play-action then quick dunk (ala Brady) to open receiver who is told to help out -- no evidence of any of those adjustments. Lamar's fault? Maybe. But coaching is supposed to adjust and I've seen more than once where Harbaugh and staff drop the ball in this regard. Harbaugh's job is to always put his team in the best position to win and sorry, too many times they're floundering and you get the sense there's no help coming from the brain trust on sidelines. I won't even mention Balt just getting 20 pts last week vs very bad Titans D, where Lamar single-handedly won that game. So why did I side with Ravens? because the numbers! it's so frustrating, the numbers line-up but then I have to sweat it because you never know what Ravens are going to do, and this is on Harbaugh. Ravens usually have very good players and they put up good stat numbers, but as I've written before, Ravens often do not have the # of wins they should have given their stats -- that's on Harbaugh. It says the players are doing their jobs, but the team is not getting the game-planning and scheming they need to translate player talent to wins. A coach like Kyle Shanahan with Balt's talent would be drooling!

Just look at yesterday's game. Forget the score and look at these final numbers:

          Ravens  Bills

1st downs  19     17

total yards  340    220

YPP       4.7     4

pass yds    190   188

rush yds    150    32

penalties    8      2

TOP       36     24

Looking at those numbers, what do you think score should've been? I can tell you based on total yards and YPP (yards per play) Ravens should've won by about 7-10 pts, i.e. winning and covering. They held Bills to just 32 yards rushing!! 2 yards per carry! passing was equal. And they still got crushed (17-3 is getting crushed!). Time of possession advantage of 36 to 24?? First down edge, Ravens. Oh, but look at that, 8 Raven penalties (to just 2 for Bills) -- which is about coaching (discipline etc). And a game like that, hard fought, an 8-2 penalty count is key, many momentum killers. 

And I said I like Bills coaching, very smart & disciplined. Meanwhile Harbaugh is clueless, always squandering good player personnel. 

I can run more analytical proof, but here ya go, what has been the result in NFL playoffs when a team outgains the other team by more than 100 yards? (Ravens had 340 total yards vs. Bills 200) that team has gone 57-15 SU or won the game nearly 80% of the time! And 55-17 ATS. And if it was an away team? They've gone 13-3 SU and 14-2 ATS. Amazing.

And if the team outgained by more than 130 yards? (Ravens had 140 yd edge), in NFL playoffs that team has gone 43-6 SU and ATS!!!!

And if team held foe to less than 40 yards rushing in playoff game? That team won 16 of 18 playoff games, winning by average 12 pt margin!! And the games went OVER 16 of 18 times. With the average score being 34-22!! 34 points compared to Ravens 3 yesterday. That's on the players?? 

Sorry, seen it too many times with Balt. (and frankly, I would argue Harb brother not much different! always has very good players and yet the W/L column always deficient. These bros would take an Alabama team and go like 8-4.... decent, but always under what should be....


  • StackAttackStackAttack Senior Member

    who were the other coaches who lost SU when outgaining opponent by 100+ yards?

  • R40R40 Senior Member

    The playoffs are designed to knock teams out. That is the problem with putting so many teams in the playoffs. They used to say Marino could not win the big one and he stunk.

    Give me a team that can be there every year and I will take my chances. No real opinion on Harbaugh as a coach except you cannot ignore his record of success

    As for Jim Harbaugh, he is definitely a great coach. But maybe more of an underdog kind of coach like Parcells. Parcells did not even like coaching good teams. Once he did what he wanted, he was not interested anymore. Same with Larry Brown who is maybe the greatest coach of all time in any sport.

  • StackAttackStackAttack Senior Member

    wow. Im a Sixers fan and love LB.

    bold statement!

  • R40R40 Senior Member

    When it comes to the Ravens, they have always been very weak at QB which is the most important position. So you cannot help but underperform come playoff time.

    Jackson works when he works. When he doesn't, it is real ugly.

  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member

    Since 1990, there have been 218 post-season NFL games. In those 218 games, only 10 teams have lost SU when outgaining the other team by 120 or more total yards. 10/218 = 4.5%, meaning 95.5% of the time the team wins. Half of those 10 losing teams pre-dates Harbaugh's tenure at Balt. But 2 of those 5 more current losing teams are Harbaugh-coached Ravens. What are the odds! Already 10 of 218 is less than 5%, but within that small %, Harbaugh has 2. In the 2019-2020 season, Ravens outgained the Titans in playoffs by a whopping 230 yards (530 vs. 300) and yet managed to lose the game 28-12!! That's hard to do! In theory, Ravens should've won that game by 2 TDs minimum, instead they get beat decisively. Fast forward to a week ago vs. Buffalo, Ravens outgain Bills by 120 yards, yet lose 17-3. Just bad luck for Harbaugh?

    As for Ravens have never had good QBs, what? Flacco has a SB ring. He didn't stink. And now they have Lamar, NFL's MVP last year. Tell this to the MANY other head coaches who have never had a QB like Flacco or Lamar.

  • StackAttackStackAttack Senior Member

    who were all the other coaches who lost those games SU?

  • R40R40 Senior Member

    Flacco was an average QB at best. They also won with Trent Dilfer.

    The Ravens have been a great organization. They have had bad QBs but been able to overcome it.

    I think Harbaugh is basically a product of the organization. You will not do any better or worse with him. Good NFL coaches are hard to come by.

Sign In or Register to comment.