Betting Talk

NFL post-season 2020

Rams +4


  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member

    Browns +6

    Ravens -3 -120

  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member

    Colts +6.5

  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member

    Buff/Ind Over 51

  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member

    Record: 4-0-1

    Browns +10

    Saints -3

  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited January 2021

    Ravens +2.5

  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited January 2021

  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member

    Rams +6.5

    Rams Over 45.5

  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member

    Record: 6-3-1

    TB +3.5

    Buff/KC Over 54

  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member

    GB/TB Over 51

  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member

    Record: 9-3-1

    TB +3 (but I got +3.5 -115, I've seen that line at more than a few legit places, but are we still just using Pinny, Bookmaker & BetOnline for records here? isn't it a different world since that was instituted years ago? just askin)

  • BuckyBadgerBuckyBadger Senior Member

    No one moderates here anymore. Use whatever widely available line you want as far as I am concerned

  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member

    Interesting, thanks. I will continue to use a fairly commonly available line.

    I sent the following to a friend, figured I'd post it here:

    OK, I've waited, figuring the consensus line would move to KC +3.5 or even higher, and yet I still see like 1/3 places with +3.5 and 2/3 places with +3, so I'm going with the +3.5 now as it may become just solid +3 everywhere. Typically what happens is the yahoos (public) all arrive in Vegas for SB starting tomorrow and they typically bet the fave (esp. if it won SB last year!) in the droves, and the same occurs with the non-Vegas-bound public this weekend, the $$ starts to really come in (on the fave mostly) as everyone wants action on the game before they attend their SB gatherings.... I've anticipated the line going to -3.5 and even -4 eventually, and I was going to pounce on +4, but I'm not waiting. The smart $$ may knock that line back down every time it hits -3.5. Besides, the outright winner of the SB has gone 47-7 ATS, meaning spread usually meaningless in SB, but it is Tom Brady after all, who has been involved in more than his share of big games that are settled by a FG, so I'll take the +3.5 now gladly. 

    Many statistical edges don't work in the SB. Prime example: the team that has the greater (better) regular season yards-per-play (YPP) is 0-7 SU & ATS in last 8 Super Bowls (last SB doesn't count since SF and KC had = YPP). YPP is considered one of the more important universal FB stats, and yet is seemingly a curse in SB. KC has a YPP of 6.5 vs. TB's YPP of 6.1... I have a bunch of other reasons siding with TB, but will spare you.... A big problem for KC is their D, especially compared to TB's D -- they're like night & day. KC's D is below-average, I would rate like #23 out of the 32 NFL teams, whereas the TB D is top-5 in the NFL. And though I don't really factor in strength of schedule in NFL given reasonable parity (vs. NCAA where it's a MUCH bigger factor), TB has played the 10th toughest schedule whereas KC has played the 25th toughest schedule, i.e. pretty easy foes.

    I get it though, when you have Mahomes you can still do well with a below-average D because he is in effect your D (long drives keeping opposition O off field and he simply outscores other teams). And that can work well, but becomes more difficult vs. elite teams (post-season). But can argue Brady brings the same, and yet he has a very good D. 

    But for the SB, it seems like what works is what goes against common perception, i.e. anything Joe Public can easily glean. Example: how does a team do in SB playing with revenge? (TB lost SU vs. KC in reg season, but covered) For the last 17 SBs, teams with revenge are 8-9 ATS, so that doesn't help. BUT if the revenge team has a win percentage that is equal to or worse than its foe (and TB does have a lower win % than KC), that team has gone 8-2 ATS. But if the revenger team has a better win % than its foe, that team has gone 0-7 ATS. Granted, not a big sample size, but pretty stark difference by changing just one parameter. IMO, the win % does say something about a team but not nearly as much as many other stats, and yet Joe Public easily sees which team is "better" by just looking at the win %. They see a team has revenge AND is the "better" team because it has a better win % -- and yet that angle goes 0-7 ATS in SB. So the revenge angle is meaningless UNTIL you attach an easy perception Joe-Public indicator (win %) along with it and poof, becomes more meaningful. 

    I would also just say as a side note, this TB team pretty much proves the point of how valuable a QB is in football (as if that needed to proven). But this TB team is more or less the same team as last year -- except for Brady. Which converted them from a 7-9 team with promise last year, into a top-5 team in NFL this year which could win it all. Same can be said for GB, which everyone forgets but at the end of the last NFL draft, the consensus was GB management f*cked Rodgers. They drafted a future replacement QB and basically gave Rodgers nothing new to work with on O. Obviously didn't matter, Rodgers just wins. 

  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member

    I must say it is somewhat amazing how much win % becomes an ATS factor in the SB. I say somewhat because a primary conclusion I've gleaned over time re SB handicapping is: KISS (keep it simple stupid). The SB is needless to say HUGE, with Joe Public VERY involved. Compared to all other games NFL games, where advanced stats etc. can possibly give you an edge, it seems the key with the SB ATS winner is simply figure out the "easy stats", i.e. what Joe Public digests, and go against it. And there's nothing more easy than win %!

    I gave an example in the above posting, but I'll give another. Do you think the team that has averaged fewer penalties should have an edge in SBs? Yes? Wrong. In the last 17 SBs, the team with average fewer penalties has gone 4-13 ATS in SBs, favoring Chiefs over TB. HOWEVER, if that team's win % (TB) is lower than the foe (KC), they've gone 2-0 ATS in SBs; if the that team's win % is equal to or greater than the foe, they've gone 2-13 ATS. So just when it looks like an angle works against TB, not.

  • rookrook Senior Member

    Thanks for these last two posts, sosoangry. They helped me navigate the game in live betting!

  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member

    Final post-season record: 10-3-1, +6.7 units

    The game more or less went as I expected at least with it coming down to D vs. D, with KC's poor D unable to stop TB, and yet TB's very good D made Mahomes & Co. look even worse than I (or anyone!) expected. No TDs allowed?! Wow. And I felt into the 2Q that for KC to right-the-ship in the game, they'd have to make some pretty dramatic adjustments at the half. So much for that! KC in 2nd half = KC in first half. Meaning to the extent adjustments were made by KC, it didn't matter! TB was winning this game, easily, done.

    Incredibly, it would appear this TB team WITH Brady has a good shot at repeating next year. Odds for 2022 Super Bowl have KC winning, with TB and GB tied for 2nd best shot. I assume oddsmaker believed KC's OL was a huge problem in this SB, and that Rodgers will remain in GB.

  • trofoostrofoos Junior Member
    edited December 2022

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