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It appears Biden's lead is comfortable. Barring the bizarre (big caveat lately), how the heck does he lose this? Is minus 165 a gift?



  • rookrook Senior Member

    There might be a psychological factor at play here: right now Trump is around +150 to win, but in the last week before the 2016 election, he was something like +240, so his job this time around is theoretically much easier than it was in 2016...

  • crashcrash Member

    Good point. I just think that enough ordinarily ambivalent folks will go out to vote for Biden. The only thing stopping me from betting it is I had Biden at minus 120 at 5Dimes before they refunded it when they shut down. Psychologically, I now can't lay much more than that.

  • originalokieoriginalokie Senior Member

    I bet Trump at + 150 at Bookmaker

  • R40R40 Senior Member

    The polls are probably overstating Biden's lead and you never know if Dems are going to actually show up to vote. The election coudl also be stolen.It looks like the fix is in on Biden though with the Chamber of Commerce supporting the Dems now. The elites just want him gone now. They got what they needed.

  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member

    You can look at this as something similar to the 2008 Great Recession. Bull markets in stocks climb a "wall of worry," and one can argue that the 2008 market decline was so horrific, that it created an anxious wall of worry for many years thereafter (in part explaining the long, ensuing bull market).

    The 2016 election was such a shock that people are not trusting what were normally fairly reliable indicators (polls, etc.). Years after the 2016 election, the anxiety and doubt remains, which is seemingly suppressing Biden's true betting odds. I'm not sure where you're seeing -165 since I'm seeing Biden at -250 to -270. But if FiveThirtyEight's forecast is correct, with Biden currently at 88% chance of winning, that would translate into Biden odds at around -700 !

    Russia interference is always a concern, but Biden doesn't have Hillary's "baggage" and his approval rating is above 50%, whereas Hillary's was just 46%. Also, there's no James Comey to do an unprecedented announcement one week before the election.

  • rookrook Senior Member

    Bookmaker has Biden to win at -177.

    Yes, by now nobody is really going to believe polls or anything else until they see a result actually happen. Despite the fact that supposedly the state-level polls have been adjusted to better reflect the number of uneducated white voters. Despite the months’ long static nature of Biden’s polling leads, and despite the fact that presidents whose approval rating never crosses the 50% mark rarely get re-elected. But I keep seeing articles about polling where voters are asked who they think their neighbors are voting for, and around 56% of the responses are Trump...And then there’s the possible swing state shenanigans where Republican dominated states might create a hoopla over suspicious mail-in ballots and declare the election results invalid to the point where state legislators designate their own electoral college votes.

    I’ve got a lot of units tied up in Trump-to-lose bets but even if I eventually win, the units will likely remain tied up even longer until after Trump delays the crap out of the entire process with court battles and whatever else...

  • R40R40 Senior Member

    Trump was something now and now he's real old. The Dems are going hard after the states they had in the bag and those states are not real big on Trump. His biggest mistake was when he decided to let all the old people die. They took notice of that. People wanted change with Trump and now they want more change.Everybody realizes that it is time for him to go and let Uncle Joe and No Drama Obam run the show. We will let the Fed keep boosting up the marekt and live happily ever after.

  • R40R40 Senior Member

    The only thing that really has me believing Biden has it in hte bag is that Trump has just rolled over. He just gave up. The polls in Arizona and Florida are really shocking. Hard to figure that he has any chance when even states that Rs hold are so close. Georgia is amazingly close and even Lindsey Graham is having to hustlle.When you have trouble in those states, you are dead meat.

  • LancerLancer Senior Member

    What about the unbiased data? The Trafalgar group has trump leading by 2-3% in every battleground state, helmut norpoth has Trump with a 91% chance of winning, the US business leaders survey has trump with a 10% lead (14% in the last election). The national polls have been fact-checked to be polling somewhere between 70-80% Democrats. Are people simply ignoring Biden‘s cognitive impairments? His (obvious) lies? His dealings with his family (and no, the Russians didn’t put it there)? Yes I am biased, but what I’ve just stated cannot be disputed.

    i am interested in responses.

  • coyleraycoyleray Senior Member

    The fake polls are like fake news! Im taking Trumph

  • StackAttackStackAttack Senior Member

    Donald will win. I'll believe we aren't a white nationalist country, when I see it.

  • LancerLancer Senior Member

    Thanks for your responses gang, but I was really hoping to hear from the other side, LOL

  • rookrook Senior Member

    Well right now betting on Trump to win will $1.74 for every dollar you bet. And Trump has a 91% chance of winning. I would call this the betting opportunity of a lifetime, lancer. I’m already all in on the wrong side. But hopefully you still have the ability to sell everything you have and borrow everything you can as soon as possible, and lay it down on Trump: betting opportunities like this can’t be passed up...

  • crashcrash Member

    How is everybody not talking about how Trump is shooting himself in the foot? Why keeping saying that Covid is fake news, media focused, and we are rounding the corner? With that strategy, he is alienating every person who knows somebody that either died or even hospitalized by Covid. And that's a lot. Why doesn't at least encourage people to wear masks or, at the very least, keep a low profile on the issue? Also, storming out of the 60 Minutes interview had to cost him some votes too. I refuse to believe that people on the fence want a buffoon for a president. And he is the ultimate buffoon. We will see.

  • R40R40 Senior Member

    Yes. If Biden keeled over, they coud stuff him full of feathers and prop him up and let Kamala do all the talking. Everybody knows Obama is running this show.

  • StackAttackStackAttack Senior Member
    edited October 27

    The conservative has already sold his/her soul. At this point...the conservative would rather destroy everything (cause its always someone elses fault) than admit any poor decisions. The time for asking "how is everybody not talking about how Trump is shooting himself in the foot?". That ship sailed in 2015-2016-17-18-19-20....and even waaaayyyy before that didnt matter.

  • R40R40 Senior Member

    Unbiased. Those are all right-wing oriented. We know he is doing well with Rs. Even Rasmussen has Biden ahead and he had Obama down 6 and every R in the world was stunned he won.

  • LancerLancer Senior Member

    Rook- I am all in on Trump, maxed out;

    crash? Where are you getting your info? People are sick n tired of being controlled when the survival rate is 99.97% and improving!! Elderly/pre-existing conditions beware. We (especially our youth) are getting dumber every day! The USA will achieve herd immunity by mid- January 2021! 60 Minutes? Are you serious, Stahl lost all shreds of respect, same as all the media has (to anyone that is a normal human being)!

    Stack? Are you f’n serious? The conservatives destroying everything? Is it the conservatives burning down our cities, our minority owned businesses? The conservatives taking away people’s livelihoods??


  • StackAttackStackAttack Senior Member
    edited November 1

    what cities have burned down?

    the conservative has overseen the pandemic. they have done a bad job. fact.

    taking away peoples livelihoods? how bout taking away the ability for people to go to the doctor (during a pandemic) without paying money they dont have?

    hey if your glad with grab em by the pussy and "there will be zero cases soon". good for you. enjoy it. its going so well. so tired of all the winning.

    FYI - you kinda proved the its always someone elses fault point i made initially. wow!

  • R40R40 Senior Member

    The world will be saved today!!!

  • LancerLancer Senior Member

    Minneapolis (worst financial damage in U.S. history!!), Seattle, Portland, et al....have you been there Stack? To see the actual carnage that the media does not show you??

    what “bad job by conservatives”?? The liberals have NEVER said how they would have handled the Chinese Virus (other than that famous.....”I would have handled it differently” or the worst possible handling.....national mask mandate, social distancing yada yada - worst case in that handling killed/and will kill hundreds TIMES more ppl than the CV! Suicides, overdoses, ....I bet you didn’t know that in the last 6 months over 1M children have DIED, and 50K mothers giving birth, because of the......shutdown and lack of proper medical care!!! Not to mention they are 40+M cancer screenings behind (and everyone knows the biggest key to fighting cancer is early detection)!! It’s the shutdown taking away not the virus.

    And, not shutting down, mask etc would have created herd immunity by now! And more ppl have died from the common flu since February besides!!

    You're flat out ignorant!

  • LancerLancer Senior Member

    Sorry bout that last comment, after Trump wine the popular vote tomorrow night I won’t be this angry young (59 year old) man anymore!

  • R40R40 Senior Member

    We finally got a Trump thread going.

  • StackAttackStackAttack Senior Member
    edited November 3


    "china virus"

    you said burnt down cities

    i know the conservative says whatever it wants and facts dont matter and words said are "jokes" or taken out of context by the fake news media

    sad people we are.

    also....kinda SURE that 9-11 was the worst financial damage done to a US city ever. but hey. lets not let facts get in the way.

  • StackAttackStackAttack Senior Member

    :::::BY THE WAY:::::

    the fact this thread is still going on shows how bad this forum has become in regards to those in charge caring

    just sayin

  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator

    For what it's worth, I no longer have the ability to delete/modify posts since we moved to the new software.

  • crashcrash Member

    What are everybody's revised thoughts? A British gambler wagered $5 million on Trump after talking to Trump insiders. Hmm. Is that considered smart money? 71 percent of the dollars are on Trump. Do people think they know something or is that gamblers looking for value?

  • StackAttackStackAttack Senior Member

    there is serious value + people know that "polls" are full of crap after 2016.

  • R40R40 Senior Member

    Nothing has changed since February in my opinion. Voter turnout is shocking though and that is not good for Trump. Never piss off the left. They get even.

  • R40R40 Senior Member

    The gambler is basing his bet on inside info from Trump insiders which is probably the worst source of info you could find.

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