Betting Talk

NFL totals this season

For the first 4 weeks of the season, totals went 36-22, 62%, OVER. Finally, for week 5 (so far), totals went 5-7. Perhaps we're starting to see the beginning of the correction, with books adjusting to bring in more Unders. Mind you, from 2016-2019, four seasons, totals were 499-523, pretty close to 50/50 dead-even.

Why so many Overs this season? Lack of fans? Refs calling fewer penalties? With no pre-season games, offenses ahead of defenses?? Idk for certain, but I do know linemakers will adjust.


  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member

    To add on to my prior post, here are NFL totals for 2017-2019 (3 seasons): 364-400-21, with the average total betting line at 45.4 vs. average actual total results of 45.3

    For this season, through week 1-4, totals were 36-22-5, with the average total betting line at 47.4 vs. avg actual total results of 51.3

    But last week totals went 7-7, with the average total betting line at 51.0 vs. avg actual total results of 51.8

    So you can see that the linemaker is adjusting, with the average posted line at 51, very close to the average actual results of 51.8

    But clearly scoring is up this season with the average total game score at 51.4 compared to the average for 2017-2019 of 45.3, a huge 13% increase.

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