Betting Talk

Presidential Election Betting

Obi OneObi One Senior Member
edited April 17 in Sports Betting
-No politics in here please, just betting information-

On that note,
this is my explanation on how and why I see value in certain numbers:

I have been following US Politics pretty intensely over the last 4 years. Been listening to and reading about politicians, analysts, pundits, etc etc from both side of the aisle and here are my assumptions and conclusions,

- Democrats won the popular vote by 3 million in a year their candidate was not popular
- Republicans received a boost from the 'NeverHillary' voters.
- Republicans had a 'new and fresh' candidate from outside of politics in Donald Trump.
- If not for a 80.000 people swing in votes in 3 states, Democrats could have won the Electoral College too.
- 2018 showed a huge surge in Blue voters.
- 2018 showed (as per the fact above) that many Red states are about to be unusually competitive vs the Blue challenger
- 2020 Democratic primaries are showing bigger turnouts than in the 2016 Primaries
- The current situation (Corona-Virus) has basically sunk the last single hope that Trump had to tout a strong economy. The recession is here (with a big chance of it becoming actually a depression).
- McConnell is speeding up the appointment of judges (per the reports about his absence from the Senate 2 weekends ago), implying he doesn't see Trump get re-elected.
- Except for the very rich republicans, nothing has changed for the poor. Actually things have gone backwards. As Bob Marley sang: "You can fool some people some time, but you can't fool all the people all the time".

Therefore "Democrats to win at -110" is a shitload of value. In my opinion it's more or less a given that Democrats will win, who-ever they decide to roll with (except Hillary).
___________________

Other takes I have:
Elizabeth Warren +1050
Amy Klobuchar +270

are worth a small investment too as this Corona-Virus might get Biden and Sanders out of the race. The nicest way I could say it, I don't hope it will happen, but have to be realistic given their age.
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Comments

  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 23
    It's going to be a repeat of the last election. Biden is actually a worse candidate than Hillary but might get past him. The Dems have basically forfeited. They would have been better off to run a scarecrow with Obama's face on it which is basically what Biden is.

    Corona might actually work in his favor despite his handing. The polls are for him and they have a chance to refloat the stock market by year end.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 23
    R40: "It's going to be a repeat of the last election."

    - Ok, so you are very certain the Republicans at -110 are the best bet? That's what you are actually going to bet?
    ______

    R40: "Biden is actually a worse candidate than Hillary but might get past him."

    - If by 'him' you mean Donald Trump, you are saying Biden might actually win, which is a contradiction with your previous sentence.

    - In what way is Biden actually worse than Hillary? I don't care about program/ policies or ideology here. I just want to know what the people are going to vote. I'm betting here. I'm looking for an edge over the current given numbers.
    ______

    R40: "The Dems have basically forfeited"

    - Have they?
    ______

    R40: "They would have been better off to run a scarecrow with Obama's face on it which is basically what Biden is."

    - Really?? Does this influence your bet?
    ______

    R40: "Corona might actually work in his favor despite his handing."

    - You are looking -at minimum- at a recession here. Economists are saying the US might see a 30% unemployment rate. Nothing the current administration has done is actually efficient in combating the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Half of Europe is already 2 weeks in quarantaine and they are still posting bad numbers on infections and deaths. In the U.S. there has been no complete lockdown, people are not getting tested and Trump just today was talking about restarting the economy next week (insert ROTFL emoji). Did I mention the US is the fattest and unhealthiest country on the face of the earth which basically means the infection and deaths numbers will be MUCH worse than in Italy. So no, there's no way this will work in his favor.

    ______
    R40: "The polls are for him and they have a chance to refloat the stock market by year end."

    - Polls I've seen had about every one of the final 5 Democratic candidates either with a big lead on Trump (Sanders and Biden) or 'marginally better/the same' (Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar). So no, the polls are not for him

    - The economy is not going to restart within the next 4 months because borders with still infected countries will remain closed (unless something radical happens, China, Europe and the rest of the world will have the virus down quicker than the US will.). People will be hesitant to travel or be restricted in travel possibilities, job uncertainty will lower expenditures, investments will be put on hold. So no, I absolutely don't see the economy veering up by November when the vote is due.

    (Let's see in 3 weeks how the outlook for the economy will be, once the death numbers in the US will be by the 1000's daily.)



    If you want to add to the discussion about whether or not there's value on 'Democrats to win the General Election at -110', please come with some serious arguments. Other than some drunk-guy-at-the-bar arguments, your whole post was worthless.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 23
    What analytical questions you ask Obi One Canopie.


    - Ok, so you are very certain the Republicans at -110 are the best bet? That's what you are actually going to bet?

    No, I see no particular value in either side. It is a toss up.

    - If by 'him' you mean Donald Trump, you are saying Biden might actually win, which is a contradiction with your previous sentence.

    Yes, I meant Trump and yes he is a worse candidate than Hillary. See 2008 when he was CLOBBERED by Hillary and 2016 when he did not bother to run against her because he knew he was a worse candidate. He now looks Japanese due to face lifts and has not gotten any smarter. I think I have covered this subject fairly well.

    - In what way is Biden actually worse than Hillary? I don't care about program/ policies or ideology here. I just want to know what the people are going to vote. I'm betting here. I'm looking for an edge over the current given numbers.

    See previous answer.
    ______

    R40: "The Dems have basically forfeited"

    - Have they?

    Yes. It was impossible to lose to Trump in 2016 and they forfeited and they have chosen to do so again. The fact that the Dems win the popular vote automatically gives him a puncher's chance.
    ______

    - Really?? Does this influence your bet?

    Yes, it does. A scarecrow with Obama's face on it would win the popular vote. I have plus odds vote on Trump losing the election even with Biden because even a scarecrow with Obama's face on it COULD beat Trump.
    ______
    - You are looking -at minimum- at a recession here. Economists are saying the US might see a 30% unemployment rate. Nothing the current administration has done is actually efficient in combating the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Half of Europe is already 2 weeks in quarantaine and they are still posting bad numbers on infections and deaths. In the U.S. there has been no complete lockdown, people are not getting tested and Trump just today was talking about restarting the economy next week (insert ROTFL emoji). Did I mention the US is the fattest and unhealthiest country on the face of the earth which basically means the infection and deaths numbers will be MUCH worse than in Italy. So no, there's no way this will work in his favor.

    Trump will lose ZERO votes in this case. It is a CHINESE virus. It is not Trump's fault.

    ______
    - Polls I've seen had about every one of the final 5 Democratic candidates either with a big lead on Trump (Sanders and Biden) or 'marginally better/the same' (Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar). So no, the polls are not for him.

    I was referring to the polls on his handing of the virus which Americans think he is doing a good job by the majority. However, if you look at the polls which show Biden ahead, the polls showed Clinton ahead by TWELVE points. Have you seen a Biden poll up TWELVE points? TWELVE ain't good enough.

    - The economy is not going to restart within the next 4 months because borders with still infected countries will remain closed (unless something radical happens, China, Europe and the rest of the world will have the virus down quicker than the US will.). People will be hesitant to travel or be restricted in travel possibilities, job uncertainty will lower expenditures, investments will be put on hold. So no, I absolutely don't see the economy veering up by November when the vote is due.

    (Let's see in 3 weeks how the outlook for the economy will be, once the death numbers in the US will be by the 1000's daily.)

    The economy and the stock market are two different things. If you throw TRILLIONS of dollars at a stock market, it might hold steady. And voters are generally very interested in stock market levels more than anything else. Add in the fact that Trump is losing ZERO votes and he has a decent chance because it is a CHINESE virus.



    If you want to add to the discussion about whether or not there's value on 'Democrats to win the General Election at -110', please come with some serious arguments. Other than some drunk-guy-at-the-bar arguments, your whole post was worthless.[/QUOTE]

    Please see above.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited March 24
    R40 wrote: »
    What analytical questions you ask Obi One Canopie.
    R40, grow up. There's no need for mocking Obi One's handle.

    Good post Obi One. R40's post is loaded with contradicting/hedging verbiage.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 24
    Ronbets wrote: »
    R40, grow up. There's no need for mocking Obi One's handle.

    Good post Obi One. R40's post is loaded with contradicting/hedging verbiage.

    My political analysis is outstanding. Remember Ronbets, I only care about reality.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 24
    Thank you for your second reply R40,

    I still don't agree with many of your arguments, so let's leave it at that.

    Notwithstanding the fact that Biden has gotten the votes in this 2020 cycle, and that he has assembled a very strong team around him, combined with the endorsement of the Democratic Establishment, the thing I do agree with you is that Biden is a weak candidate. And I'm not looking at previous runs or his voting record, I'm just talking about his capacity to be the -eventual- president 'right now'. His age and the seeming impairment of some of his cognitive functions opens up the possibility that he won't make it to the General Election in November. Thus adding more value on the Klobuchar and Warren bets. From everything I've seen, the Democratic Establishment really does not want Bernie to win this thing, for one, and second his supporters have been insufferable online.

    Coming back to Biden, this certainly does not look good:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYGgVZjMYQA

    How long before a major slip-up? How long can his strategists hide him?

    Bernie just announced he'd gladly be part of any debate in April and is not conceding the race to Biden.



    In the ironic corner, a side note:
    - Antivaxxers are now eagerly waiting for a COVID-19 vaccin.
    - Socialism bashers are the first in line waiting for the government stimulus package. :laughing::lol:
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited March 24
    Obi One wrote: »
    __________________

    Other takes I have:
    Elizabeth Warren +1050
    Amy Klobuchar +270

    I'm not on your VP choices and here's why:

    Klobuchar- Biden doesn't need any help in Minnesota. Staunch Dems. Besides, Amy has family problems with husband's coronavirus.

    Warren- No help needed here either in blue Mass. Credibility issues with poor showing in home state primary.

    My pick would be a "limit horse" in Val Demings @20-1. This African-American ex-cop could help to snare critical Florida.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 24
    The guy you want in a pandemic is Sanders. He may not be out of the running when the polls open up again..

    Just read that 500,000 in US is present estimate possibly 2M. If so, Bernie maybe in a landslide especially after the bailout.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 24
    Ronbets wrote: »
    I'm not on your VP choices and here's why:

    Klobuchar- Biden doesn't need any help in Minnesota. Staunch Dems. Besides, Amy has family problems with husband's coronavirus.

    Warren- No help needed here either in blue Mass. Credibility issues with poor showing in home state primary.

    My pick would be a "limit horse" in Val Demings @20-1. This African-American ex-cop could help to snare critical Florida.

    Hey Ronbets,

    Those are not for Vice President,
    Those are bets for either Klobuchar or Warren to become the president, should something -like a nasty virus- hamper Biden's and/or Sanders' health in the coming 7 months.

    As per the VP-race (and odds),
    I've read that Kamala Harris can choose whether she'd like to be -amongst others- a Supreme Justice or the VP for her endorsement of Biden.

    I'm waiting a bit longer with that bet, but I agree with your argument.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 24
    R40 wrote: »
    The guy you want in a pandemic is Sanders. He may not be out of the running when the polls open up again..

    Just read that 500,000 in US is present estimate possibly 2M. If so, Bernie maybe in a landslide especially after the bailout.

    As I said in a previous post,
    the Democratic Establishment is doing their darned best to keep Sanders from being the Democratic nominee. He's been having great talks at live.berniesanders.com with health experts. Talking a whole lot more sense -when it comes to the Corona pandemic- than the White House briefings over the last 10 days.

    Big question is, when will Biden make the big slip. When will they realize he's lost his mind.....and I hate to write it that way. It's not something you wish to see in anybody.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 24
    Obi One wrote: »
    As I said in a previous post,
    the Democratic Establishment is doing their darned best to keep Sanders from being the Democratic nominee. He's been having great talks at live.berniesanders.com with health experts. Talking a whole lot more sense -when it comes to the Corona pandemic- than the White House briefings over the last 10 days.

    Big question is, when will Biden make the big slip. When will they realize he's lost his mind.....and I hate to write it that way. It's not something you wish to see in anybody.

    Yeah, they took him out but Dems were not going for him with Trump's stock market. They preferred Trump over Sanders. If thing goes bad in two weeks, all bets are off. It could all get away from them. It is not near over.
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited March 25
    R40 is a true Trumptard, he'll vote for his fearless leader no matter what. He says the virus is a Chinese virus and it's not Trump's fault. Let's see, back in January US intelligence agencies told Trump there was an upcoming pandemic that will be affecting our country, Trump ignored the intel. He then didn't take the virus seriously at the beginning calling it a hoax by the democrats, the he said it would magically disappear on it's one like a miracle, then he said it was no different than having the flu, and even suggested people who felt sick should go to work. By the time he actually started taking it seriously, it was several weeks too late, he could have gotten a head start fighting this thing had the clown listened to his own intelligence agencies and taken immediate action, his delay has cost American lives. For R40 to think this won't cost him votes is dumb
  • bumpobumpo Senior Member
    edited March 25
    And then gave himself a 10 for how he handled it. You couldn't make this stuff up.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited March 25
    "Democrats are publicly talking about “contingency options” for their July convention in Milwaukee in case the coronavirus persists in being a public-health threat. But privately, some are also talking about needing a Plan B if Joe Biden, their nominee apparent, continues to flounder.

    Some Democrats are openly talking up New York governor Andrew Cuomo, whose profile has soared during the crisis, as a Biden stand-in. Yesterday, a Draft Cuomo 2020 account on Twitter announced that “Times have changed & we need Gov. Cuomo to be the nominee. Our next POTUS must be one w/an ability to lead thru this crisis.”
    *source National Review

    Trump talks about game-changers. This is the real one.
  • KashmirKashmir Senior Member
    edited March 25
    No matter what you post on here for analysis, people have chosen their side even if it's a horrible bet. Even the best sports bettors are completed blinded by their politics at times. By the way, trump is a fucking shit stain.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 25
    kane wrote: »
    R40 is a true Trumptard, he'll vote for his fearless leader no matter what.

    Hey Kane,
    If you look at post #9 and #12 you'll see that this isn't true. Or at least.....doesn't seem to be true.
    kane wrote: »
    For R40 to think this won't cost him votes is dumb

    Agree with you here Kane....at minimum they're dead from the virus. It's been very few Trump rallies where I've seen fit people. MAGAteers are mostly white, old and fat.....with all corresponding maladies accompanying them. Insulin resistance is a heck of a (slow) killer.
    bumpo wrote: »
    And then gave himself a 10 for how he handled it. You couldn't make this stuff up.

    Benny Hill could!

    Ronbets wrote: »
    "Democrats are publicly talking about “contingency options” for their July convention in Milwaukee in case the coronavirus persists in being a public-health threat. But privately, some are also talking about needing a Plan B if Joe Biden, their nominee apparent, continues to flounder.

    Some Democrats are openly talking up New York governor Andrew Cuomo, whose profile has soared during the crisis, as a Biden stand-in. .

    Hey Ron,

    Word from NYers is that 'crisis-managament' aka 'strong-man-leadership' is the only thing he's competent at. He doesn't check the rest of the leadership boxes and is an actual horrible human being. I can't find the tweets and articles right now, but when I read it, I was like, 'Yeah, this is bad'.

    If Bernie and Warren hadn't attacked the billionares in their early campaign, they'd be running away from the field right now. I believe it's those attacks that made the Democratic Establishment decide to push all other conservative options behind Biden. (Black vote through the Clyburn endorsement, conservative vote through Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Harris).

    I honestly don't think they can trot out Biden anymore and am looking at the
    'Biden NOT to be Democratic nominee at +600'

    number is already dropping fwiw.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 25
    Obi One wrote: »
    Hey Kane,
    If you look at post #9 and #12 you'll see that this isn't true. Or at least.....doesn't seem to be true.



    Agree with you here Kane....at minimum they're dead from the virus. It's been very few Trump rallies where I've seen fit people. MAGAteers are mostly white, old and fat.....with all corresponding maladies accompanying them. Insulin resistance is a heck of a (slow) killer.



    Benny Hill could!




    Hey Ron,

    Word from NYers is that 'crisis-managament' aka 'strong-man-leadership' is the only thing he's competent at. He doesn't check the rest of the leadership boxes and is an actual horrible human being. I can't find the tweets and articles right now, but when I read it, I was like, 'Yeah, this is bad'.

    If Bernie and Warren hadn't attacked the billionares in their early campaign, they'd be running away from the field right now. I believe it's those attacks that made the Democratic Establishment decide to push all other conservative options behind Biden. (Black vote through the Clyburn endorsement, conservative vote through Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Harris).

    I honestly don't think they can trot out Biden anymore and am looking at the
    'Biden NOT to be Democratic nominee at +600'

    number is already dropping fwiw.

    The Dem establishment did not want anything to do with Sanders or Warren. They pumped Warren early to try to split the Sanders vote but it didn't work because Warren's numbers plunged once the fake polls were finished.

    Biden represents Obama. They did not have any other choices really. :Very weak field and Biden is representative of Obama so you go with Biden especially when your primary concern is your 401(k) balance. Buttigieg was the Gay Obama but not ready for that yet.

    - - - Updated - - -
    kane wrote: »
    R40 is a true Trumptard, he'll vote for his fearless leader no matter what. He says the virus is a Chinese virus and it's not Trump's fault. Let's see, back in January US intelligence agencies told Trump there was an upcoming pandemic that will be affecting our country, Trump ignored the intel. He then didn't take the virus seriously at the beginning calling it a hoax by the democrats, the he said it would magically disappear on it's one like a miracle, then he said it was no different than having the flu, and even suggested people who felt sick should go to work. By the time he actually started taking it seriously, it was several weeks too late, he could have gotten a head start fighting this thing had the clown listened to his own intelligence agencies and taken immediate action, his delay has cost American lives. For R40 to think this won't cost him votes is dumb

    I am a heretic. My posts are very confusing because cognitive bias takes over. I am a Bernie Bro.

    The problem people have with understanding Trump is that he is losing ZERO votes. It is hard for him to lose that way because the Dems are bringing no new votes to the table.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 25
    R40 wrote: »
    The guy you want in a pandemic is Sanders. He may not be out of the running when the polls open up again..

    Just read that 500,000 in US is present estimate possibly 2M. If so, Bernie maybe in a landslide especially after the bailout.

    Sanders is voting for the bailout. It is now Biden all the way.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 25
    So now if you are keeping score, you have a Dem party that has no regrets for making Clinton the candidate and losing. They feel the same campaign is going to win away some Rs this time. This basically comes down to Wisconsin and Michigan and those states vote for R governors. There is just nothing there for Dems. They might inch it over the goal line in those states but they are not getting any of the R votes they are hoping for. They are pretty comfortable with Trump now and if you are a Dem you have to feel pretty good about your 401(k) balance if Trump is re-elected.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 25
    R40 wrote: »
    The problem people have with understanding Trump is that he is losing ZERO votes. It is hard for him to lose that way because the Dems are bringing no new votes to the table.

    In that case how do you explain the higher turnout in the primaries of 2020 vs those of 2016??
    R40 wrote: »
    They are pretty comfortable with Trump now and if you are a Dem you have to feel pretty good about your 401(k) balance if Trump is re-elected.

    You really think 4 years will go buy without another catastrophe? In my opinion, with current course, stocks will test below 19.000 again once size of corona-malmanagement becomes obvious in US.

    back for Easter my ass.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 25
    Obi One wrote: »
    In that case how do you explain the higher turnout in the primaries of 2020 vs those of 2016??

    They were a little pissed off. However, Trump voters are going to POUND it in 2020. Ask any Trump voter if they are voting for Trump again and see what they say. Ask a Dem how excited they are about voting for Biden and check the difference.

    I don't know why anyone would think this is going to be much different when the Dems are not really offering anything different than Trump.

    Wisconsin is controlled by Rs. It is a state that elects Rs regularly. The Dems have a decent chance in those two states but they aren't winning Florida and they aren't winning Ohio. It is a nail biter.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 25
    Obi One wrote: »
    In that case how do you explain the higher turnout in the primaries of 2020 vs those of 2016??



    You really think 4 years will go buy without another catastrophe? In my opinion, with current course, stocks will test below 19.000 again once size of corona-malmanagement becomes obvious in US.

    back for Easter my ass.

    Right. This virus is going to get cutoff fairly effectively. Trump is not opening up Easter so he will avoid the worst of it. Again, people think Trump is doing a good job. They have not taken the virus seriously and they are not going to blame Trump for it.

    The market is still very high. Testing 19,000 is nothing. You need to get down to S&P 1500 before Biden is really going to have an advantage and Trump has the whole year to juice the market up. And even then, you have to like the market better under Trump than Biden.

    Biden has been absent so nothing to offer on this. Sanders voted for the bailout. The Dems would have something to run against if they were offering SOMETHING. They are offering what Trump is offering.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 27
    Obi One wrote: »
    I honestly don't think they can trot out Biden anymore and am looking at the
    'Biden NOT to be Democratic nominee at +600'

    number is already dropping fwiw.

    more of the same, Biden is toast, this was today.
    Most books have taken the 'politics' section down.

    https://twitter.com/GeoffMiami/status/1243704660294328325
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 27
    It's too late. Fake it until you make it.

    Better to lose anyway. This is like the Bush second term.

    Just let Trump run it into the line.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 28
    At this point, you basically have a full surrender. Bernie and AOC rolled over with just a little speech.

    Both parties are delivering. Biden knows it is over.

    Now they expect results. They aren't going to get them. The US is being liquidated.

    There is no telling what Trump might do to gain favor with the public when it all goes bad.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited March 28
    Fox News Poll:

    —Biden leads Trump 49-40% in head-to-head matchup
    —Leads 52-43% among those highly interested in the election
    —Leads 48-40% in battleground states
    AND
    —57-32% in close counties (where Clinton and Trump were within 10 points in 2016)!

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-leads-trump-wins-high-marks-for-female-vp-pledge
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 28
    Obi One wrote: »
    Fox News Poll:

    —Biden leads Trump 49-40% in head-to-head matchup
    —Leads 52-43% among those highly interested in the election
    —Leads 48-40% in battleground states
    AND
    —57-32% in close counties (where Clinton and Trump were within 10 points in 2016)!

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-leads-trump-wins-high-marks-for-female-vp-pledge

    Trump has 266 electoral votes all but locked up. Biden has to win Michigan AND Wisconsin AND Colorado AND Nevada.

    Biden has no idea what even to say right now. He's the fallback. If Trump turns bad, they will turn to him. The policies are basically the same and nobody cares anymore.

    They also own the voting machines and they know how to use them. They've been winning in Latin America for years.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 28
    It is also instructional to know that it is IMPOSSIBLE to have a lead of more than 3% points.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 28
    A great Joe Biden quote from the Onion:

    I don't think the country is in the mood to hear criticism of the President right now.
  • LancerLancer Senior Member
    edited March 28
    How do you explain, in clearly Democratic primaries (not much on ballots for R’s to show up), that President Trump, in most states has received more (or nearly more) votes than all of the other Democratic candidates combined (where there was a much greater reason to turn out); and, he has had about five times more votes than President Obama did in his 2nd term primaries? Jw?
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