Betting Talk

SPECIAL DELIVERY TO DONNY2

RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
edited March 2020 in Sports Betting
So you are annoyed with Danshan. What credentials do you possess? You have limited knowledge of line making. You entered this forum, among numerous other boards with long-winded posts and novice questions. Apparently you are frustrated with losing and looking for a quick-fix gaming degree. Danshan has been a pain in the ass initially, but has come a long way with self-study and has value.

I suggest you change targets and go after this forum's charlatan with zero value. I'm referring to the pseudointellectual posing as a math guru that data mines hockey plays.

Comments

  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    Ronbets is a troll and has no common sense.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    R40 wrote: »
    Ronbets is a troll and has no common sense.

    LOL. How's that from a bust-out intuitive NASCAR hustler? Sorry, your hoop season is a bust-out too. Maybe your boss Edward can hire you in promotions.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    you two are boring, what happened to Donny?
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    danshan wrote: »
    you two are boring, what happened to Donny?

    He's on Skype with R40 learning to make a 'fair line'??
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    Ronbets wrote: »
    LOL. How's that from a bust-out intuitive NASCAR hustler? Sorry, your hoop season is a bust-out too. Maybe your boss Edward can hire you in promotions.

    Looking more toward BettorIQ.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    R40 wrote: »
    Ronbets is a troll and has no common sense.

    Why the impromptu cheapshot? Venting on me won't recoup your gambling losses. Learn to live with it.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Why the impromptu cheapshot? Venting on me won't recoup your gambling losses. Learn to live with it.

    You are a little slow on the draw Ronbets.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    Read this article Donny and then maybe you will get an idea of why I make such a big deal of generating close lines and I am like the only person who puts up their lines BEFORE the books put them out

    What makes a sharp bettor?
    Most sharps who make a living from their betting would likely agree on one piece of evidence as being indicative of the presence, or absence, of skill: can you make accurate lines, or odds, before the bookmakers do?



    https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/winner-takes-all-in-betting/T3X2AMJ9BDUV58WA

    - - - Updated - - -

    also on a side note, did the professor leave town since I showed his data mining has not done so well in the last few years?
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    dan , dont think because you put out lines before the books do is smart . All of my lines are stats based .As you know am a dumb ass, and everything i do is by pencil and paper ,it takes time, that being said , I think that those who make their own lines, and am not talking about guys that claim to make their own lines , real computer generated lines , are not going to share them....i look at kenpom and sargain and even though my lines are different then theirs , am doing ok going against them.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    Hey Jets,

    the moral is anyone who wants to cap games has 3 major problems
    1 volume, they need tons of volume or they never can overcome variance
    2 need to find value, true measurable value
    3 need to know if they lost value, if they have a real edge now, how do they know when it is gone?

    what method do you think a guy can use to do all 3 of these?

    if you generate a fair line also known as a darn good accurate line without influence from an outside source
    you should be able to handle the 3 needs above

    1 you should be not guaranteed but generate more plays
    2 you can see true measurable value by getting CLV
    3 you can see if your fair line is close to the close and see if your model still holds up


    generating good accurate ines is not guaranteed success but its definitively a symptom of it
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    PS
    the cocky talk is just me messing with a guy, you know me better than anyone here and cocky is not a word usually used to describe me

    - - - Updated - - -

    and Kenpom do a good job of creating article lines that are cool to look at and fairly accurate but the meat and potatoes comes from injuries, rest and other adjustments.
    Kenpom and Sagarin never create power rankings that beat the line
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    just sent ya an email
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    Jets, email replied to
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    dan what you have for atl/ny ? our lines came out perfect for the no/sac game

    i have atl -2.86 if i can get 5 with the knicks am thinking thats a pretty good bet for me
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020

    <colgroup><col style="width: 117px"><col width="50"></colgroup><tbody>
    Knicks
    230.0


    Hawks
    -4.5

    </tbody>
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    My bets today 3-11
    Nuggets Over 218 I got 222
    Jazz +2.5 I got Jazz at Pick
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    thanks ....anyone reading, am looking for an article , i think it was in vsin but not sure , was looking for a stat that shows what the su and ats records are when teams in conference sweep or split conf play ....anyone have anything ? am looking at fordham today getting pts , beat gw twice only wins of season , line is so leaning towards gw ...value fordham ,imo ...
    thank you
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    use sportsdatabase.com to get the record
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    Gobert out that might hurt my Utah Pick
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    i guess you know what my fordham and knicks plays did
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited March 2020
    very nice picks
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