Betting Talk

nba 19/20

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  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    rook wrote: »
    Are you betting heavy or light on the Grizzlies tonight?

    I put 2 units on the Grizzlies, and now I am reading on the action news network that this is now the squarest bet of the year, with 90% of the money on the Grizzlies. And the line isn’t changing, which I assume means that the books feel that the Knicks will win...
  • BuckyBadgerBuckyBadger Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    which Action News Network?
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    am running a little late but doing my hockey right now ....liking ariz tomorrow in hockey ...ill be right back with thoughts on memphis ....
    don best say 81 % on mem and move up a little.
    sbr say 70-30 mem and line move 1 point towards mem.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    looks too easy, i think if i can get 3 am taking the knicks ...and to tell you truth , only because its in a 61% subset ive had for years and years ..
    just looking at both coming off back to back, it looks like mem has a clear advantage ...mem hasnt been a road fav many times and the knicks are about .500 ats as a home dog.
    ill wait to see how this line moves ....good luck on your memphis play brother
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    which Action News Network?

    Sorry, I mistakenly included the word “News”. It’s actually called “The Action Network” and it shows up as part of the Apple News items on my iPad. It’s usually a pain in the ass because frequently they just show you the first paragraph or 2 of the article and then tell you that you have to download their app to see the rest of the article.

    Here is what I saw:

    One day after surprisingly closing as 1.5-point favorites against the third-place Nuggets (who, granted, were missing a few key players) and winning, 104-96, the Grizzlies will take on the 13-35 Knicks.
    As you’d expect, their spread has increased given the worse opponent, all the way up to … -2.5.
    The Grizzlies are obviously on the second game of a back-to-back, but so are the Knicks. The only major difference between last night’s game and tonight’s is this one won’t be played in Memphis.
    And bettors are not shying away from the opportunity to back a playoff team against one fighting to avoid the label of worst team in the East.
    In fact, the Grizzlies are getting 90% of bets as of Wednesday afternoon, putting the Knicks (10%) on pace to be the least popular NBA bet of the season.
    Odds as of Wednesday at 1:40 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
    Least Popular 2019-20 NBA Spread Bets
    The Knicks are obviously familiar with this level of unpopularity recently, as they’re a week removed from a 15% backing against the Lakers.
    If tonight’s 10% mark does hold, which is unlikely, it would be only the fourth such occurrence in our database (since 2005).
    Least Popular NBA Spread Bets Since 2005
    Of the 82 teams to close with 15% or fewer spread bets since ’05, 81 have been underdogs and 80 have been at home. They’ve gone an even 41-41 against the spread.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    jets96 wrote: »
    looks too easy, i think if i can get 3 am taking the knicks ...and to tell you truth , only because its in a 61% subset ive had for years and years ..
    just looking at both coming off back to back, it looks like mem has a clear advantage ...mem hasnt been a road fav many times and the knicks are about .500 ats as a home dog.
    ill wait to see how this line moves ....good luck on your memphis play brother

    My two main reasons for backing the Grizzlies is that they cover the spread more times than not when they are on zero rest, while the Knicks do exactly the opposite. But mainly I was just really impressed when I watched them dismantle the Rockets a couple weeks ago. Houston threw everything they had at the kids, and the Grizzlies would give a little bit but instead of breaking they would come right back with more baskets. Plus I’m not entirely sure that the Knicks aren’t tanking...

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    The Grizzlies bet is moneyline, by the way, at -135. So danshan can be happy for me, because the price has jumped to a whopping -145 since I bet this morning...
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    fwiw imo Players don't tank, I personally think that's a figment of sport analysts imaginations and I will never take that into consideration...well maybe not never but you know what am saying.
    Knicks haven't been an easy out at home, most recently they beat the Nets, lost to tor by 6,lal by8 and phila by 3 ...that doesn't look like tanking to me.They also beat the heat at home on the 12th...So they can hang if so inclined. I'll wait,the best bets you can make are the ones you don't make.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    I think it would be a huge mistake for a team to ask its players to tank. Their dna should contain as much competitiveness as possible, and should never be stained by tanking. But a few substitutions for a few minutes by a coach following orders of a general manager could ensure that a team doesn’t quite win, though they come really close...
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    This season
    3 games in 4 nights: Grizzlies 7-4 ATS, Knicks 2-5 ATS
    B2B: Grizzlies 4-2, Knicks 2-4
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    Not sure , not saying it doesnt happen. Late money coming in on knicks , that i see
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    Probably danshan swooping in with mega buck bets on the Knicks now that he knows for sure what the line-ups will look like...
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    lmfao
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    In the end it looked like the Grizzlies were priced at -136 moneyline at BM, so I guess that one dollar of CLV was enough to get me the win...now I’m doubling down on the Clippers at -13.5...
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    didnt touch the knicks game ...good luck tonight
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    rook , i hope you got out of some of that bet if u took it. what do you make out of that game. I had that game lined at -8 but 6 points off would be a no play.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    jets96 wrote: »
    rook , i hope you got out of some of that bet if u took it. what do you make out of that game. I had that game lined at -8 but 6 points off would be a no play.

    I got burned. The whole point of the deal was that the Kings were coming off a 5-game long distance road trip, playing a single home game, then playing the Clippers b2b. They should have been frazzled but they weren’t. If Kawhi had played the Clippers might have stayed far enough ahead for long enough to buy out of the bet, maybe even with a middle. But even a half-unit bet on the Clippers at +13 late in the game failed miserably...
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    sorry about that dude, personally NO BET is worth double , ive had games that looked too good to be true and lost and those that were ify at best and won easily. I treat gambling the same way i eat, everything in moderation. Maybe i go 1.5 units...
    tonight i like the pistons +4.5
    loved n.o when it was 5.5 now i see its at 7.5 so thats gone.
    liked the over 224 in milu game but up to 226 so thats gone.
    and i like the lakers a little
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    jets96 wrote: »
    sorry about that dude, personally NO BET is worth double , ive had games that looked too good to be true and lost and those that were ify at best and won easily. I treat gambling the same way i eat, everything in moderation. Maybe i go 1.5 units...
    tonight i like the pistons +4.5
    loved n.o when it was 5.5 now i see its at 7.5 so thats gone.
    liked the over 224 in milu game but up to 226 so thats gone.
    and i like the lakers a little

    Why do you like the Pistons? I am thinking about going all in on Raptors moneyline -185. That doesn’t necessarily conflict with Detroit +4.5, but it seems like a lot of bets that you win at around that line level are straight up wins by the dog...
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    I like det because i thought the line was to high and its rising ...tor not as eff in the 2nd of back to backs which gives det a shot ..still waiting on that game , if it stays 5 ill take det , if it keeps going up ill pass
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited January 2020
    502 det +4.5 -115

    luck
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    jets96 wrote: »
    502 det +4.5 -115

    luck

    Thanks for the luck, but the Pistons threw you under the bus. I think they’re concentrating on showcasing their trade-able talent as the trade deadline approaches, but whatever the reason, they didn’t show a lot of spirit yesterday...
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    agreed
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    jets96 wrote: »
    agreed

    With everybody’s attention squarely focused on the Super Bowl today, maybe the Pistons will give away another game to the Nuggets this morning...
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    i didnt even dope out nba today, had to get my brother and his wife to airport and run around for my lovely wife ...starting tomorrow am going to put a lot more time to my nba , i worked so hard on the other sports i thought nba would be fine as well , NOT...starting tomorrow that changes.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    rook am looking at atl and the clippers esp the clippers ,any thoughts?
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    YTD 48-53 -10.65

    562 LAC -9

    LUCK
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    jets96 wrote: »
    rook am looking at atl and the clippers esp the clippers ,any thoughts?

    The Clippers might be good for 1-unit bets, nothing more because doc will screw bettors to the wall. He concealed that Kawhi wouldn’t play until the tip-off of the game 2 games back, and then got blown out of a game that most people would have bet the Clippers would win. Lou and Montrezl generally start to wake up up somewhere close to halftime. If everybody plays, and Lou/Montrezl wake up on time, they will win easily. Can you cap Lou’s wake-up time?

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    Ps Lou generally wakes up earlier if both Kawhi and Paul George are playing...
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    Hawks are pretty weak today, heavy injuries. They have young but not Andre hunter, who is their most dependable 3-point shooter who isn’t usually covered tightly beyond the arc. They don’t have athletic stud kam reddish. On the other side the Celtics are missing smart and walker. If Celtics come to play, their superior training will allow them to kill the Hawks because the Hawks are lacking some of their strongest most athletic players....
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    i passed on the hawks anyway , going back to my old ways, and passing on any game where a player, that i think is worthy, is a game time decision or out.
  • rookrook Senior Member
    edited February 2020
    jets96 wrote: »
    i passed on the hawks anyway , going back to my old ways, and passing on any game where a player, that i think is worthy, is a game time decision or out.

    Good pass!
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