Betting Talk

2019 NFL Picks by Professor MJ

ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
edited December 2019 in Sports Betting
WEEK #1

Written Wednesday September 4th, 2019 at 2 PM Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs (rated 3 stars)

Lots of people are in the Chiefs bandwagon. If you look at their roster, they are indeed very good. Patrick Mahomes is super exciting to watch. And so are their speedy receivers, namely Tyreek Hill. I’m also looking forward to seeing their new toy, rookie Mecole Hardman. I’ve heard good reports from camp about him.

Nobody is underestimating Kansas City. Everybody expects them to be great. But I believe many people are underestimating Jacksonville. The general public remembers their dreadful 2018 season where they finished 5-11. But don’t forget they went 10-6 the year before, thanks to a suffocating defense. They still have many players from that edition in their roster.

The QB situation has obviously improved with the arrival of Nick Foles, a very smart guy. Running back Leonard Fournette is also back after missing half the season, and battling through injuries when he was on the field. He says he is “100 percent better.”

Jacksonville will also be looking to avenge a 30-14 loss in Kansas City last season.

I subscribed to the weekly newsletter sent by the Sports Interaction sportsbook. In this week’s letter that I just received, they mention getting 90% of the action on the Chiefs versus just 10% on the Jags. As a contrarian, I love it!

LEAN: Detroit Lions -2.5 at Arizona Cardinals

The Kyler Murray era is about to begin in Arizona! The fans should be excited, but there might be some growing pains, especially early in the season. Give him some time to adjust to the NFL speed. On the other side, you’ve got an experience signal caller with Matthew Stafford, who is entering his 11th season in the league.

The betting public tends to focus too much on each team’s offensive weapons; they don’t take the defense and the offensive line into account enough, in my humble opinion. That being said, footballguys.com is a great website that has a lot of valuable information on the NFL. I trust them a lot, as I have used them many times when doing fantasy football. They are ranking Arizona’s defense 26th in the league, while their offensive line gets the 30th rank. Ouch.

Not only do the Cards have a new QB, but they also have a rookie head coach, Kliff Kingsbury. He will also need time to feel more comfortable with his new duties.

Finally, based on odds for the number of regular season wins, the Lions are expected to get about 6.5 victories this year compared to 5.0 for the Cards. And that’s despite Detroit playing in a tougher division.

Best of luck with your plays, fellows!

Professor MJ

Comments

  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs (rated 3 stars)

    LEAN: Detroit Lions -2.5 at Arizona Cardinals

    I presume you got these #'s at Target? Read the rules teacher these are not 11/10. Why no mention? You must think this board consists of in-the-dark Sarnia residents.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    The interesting thing about ProfessorMJ is that he is a straight up handicapper at NFL and NBA presumably with a model as his base. This will give danshan something to sink his teeth into.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    R40 wrote: »
    The interesting thing about ProfessorMJ is that he is a straight up handicapper at NFL and NBA presumably with a model as his base. This will give danshan something to sink his teeth into.

    Danshan will eat his lunch.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited September 2019
    Professor, 3rd and last reminder. You need to use lines available at the time of your post as I mentioned twice now in your MLB thread. We don't care what the line was 2-3 hours before your post. If it has moved then your post is pointless.

    If you do not acknowledge my request and follow the rules then BT is not the right forum for you. Thanks.
  • ProfessorMJProfessorMJ Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    Jags +3.5 -116 (i.e. 1.862) vs Chiefs
    Lions -2.5 -116 (i.e. 1.862) at Cards
    See attachment
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited September 2019
    Did you read the guidelines as I asked?

    All football plays must be graded at -110 using a 20c line unless shaded around a key number. So if you see -116 at a reduced juice shop like Pinny you should be grading at -120.

    You also should not be mentioning "line as of 2pm, they may have changed." We only care about the lines at the time of your post.

    Thanks for understanding.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    WEEK #2

    Tough card or did you oversleep?
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited September 2019
    Ronbets wrote: »
    WEEK #2

    Tough card or did you oversleep?

    I found the complimentary pick.

    Official Picks
    PICK #1: Chicago Bears -2.5 at Denver Broncos (rated 4 stars)

    To receive other picks you must PAY.

    Unofficial Picks
    LEAN #1: Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 vs San Francisco 49ers
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited December 2019
    0 for 4 and crickets. Add these results to your resume.
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