Betting Talk

EOG blasts SuperContest panel. Who would you invite?

TortugaTortuga Moderator
edited August 2015 in Sports Betting
Westgate...really??? This pretty much discredits this SuperContest panel idea
http://forums.eog.com/showthread.php/377431-Westgate-really-This-pretty-much-discredits-this-SuperContest-panel-idea
Take a look at who is announced for this panel?LVSuperBook ‏@LVSuperBook 9h9 hours agoAFC Panel- moderator JT The Brick @JTTheBrick. Kelly Stewart @kellyinvegas; Erin Rynning @ersports1; Warren Sharp @SharpFootball THX ALL!JT checkER checkWarren checkKellyinvegas???? Are you fucking kidding me? How many times is she going to give a senseless "well they finished the year 5-2 ATS so I think that will continue"?

Two questions:
1. Who would you want to listen to at an event like this?
2. If you were hosting an event like this, who would you try to book who would actually participate?

Comments

  • TortugaTortuga Moderator
    edited August 2015
    Full panel:
    Here is our star-studded SuperContest Weekend handicapping seminar lineup hosted by Brian Blessing @BrianBlessing on Aug 28.

    College-moderator Ken Thomson @kenthomson87.Panelist: @davecokin; @chrisfallica; Joe Lisi @goforthe2; Bruce Marshall @BruceAMarshall

    NFC Panel- moderator Gill Alexander @beatingthebook. Steve Fezzik @FezzikSports; Todd Fuhrman @ToddFuhrman; Marc Lawrence @MarcLawrence

    AFC Panel- moderator JT The Brick @JTTheBrick. Kelly Stewart @kellyinvegas; Erin Rynning @ersports1; Warren Sharp @SharpFootball
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Tortuga wrote: »
    Westgate...really??? This pretty much discredits this SuperContest panel idea
    http://forums.eog.com/showthread.php/377431-Westgate-really-This-pretty-much-discredits-this-SuperContest-panel-idea


    Two questions:
    1. Who would you want to listen to at an event like this?
    2. If you were hosting an event like this, who would you try to book who would actually participate?

    Two guys stick out of this crowd. One good the other.........doesn't belong in this town.

    The Good: Bruce Marshall of the Gold Sheet is onea the most knowledgeable sports analysts around. Can name the backup QBs in most programs. Can he pick winners? That discussion for another day.

    The Bad: JT The Brick. Moderating a gambling seminar and is a proud non-bettor. Figure it out.
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited August 2015
    I actually think they did a pretty good job. There are not a a lot of good options among willing participants.

    I nominate MikeRAS for next year though.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Yea Kelly she's great she'll teach you how to buy points on almost every game but the best is she'll teach you the secert of teasing total's in both Collage and pro's. Star Studded. She serves cocktails forget where that's how good she is and the best part is she has clinets. What a country.
    As for the teaser statement I just didn't read it here I first saw it when she admitted teasing total's on twitter. Great lineup great for westgate that is
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited August 2015
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    Yea Kelly she's great she'll teach you how to buy points on almost every game but the best is she'll teach you the secert of teasing total's in both Collage and pro's. Star Studded. She serves cocktails forget where that's how good she is and the best part is she has clinets. What a country.
    As for the teaser statement I just didn't read it here I first saw it when she admitted teasing total's on twitter. Great lineup great for westgate that is

    If she was chosen for entertainment value and publicity alone, it's not a bad choice. We're even talking about her here, it is working.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    RightAngle wrote: »
    I actually think they did a pretty good job. There are not a a lot of good options among willing participants.

    It depends on their goal. If it's to be at all taken seriously, this panel is a joke. If it's for entertainment and/or to get fraud touts that can sell picks and give off the illusion that they win to the idiots that will then dump the money back to the casino, then it's a good job. Given that it's likely the later, I suppose it's a good job, but I'd sooner blow my brains out than watch this shit show for more than 10 minutes.
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited August 2015
    Dr. H wrote: »
    It depends on their goal. If it's to be at all taken seriously, this panel is a joke. If it's for entertainment and/or to get fraud touts that can sell picks and give off the illusion that they win to the idiots that will then dump the money back to the casino, then it's a good job. Given that it's likely the later, I suppose it's a good job, but I'd sooner blow my brains out than watch this shit show for more than 10 minutes.

    Tell us how you really feel.
  • TortugaTortuga Moderator
    edited August 2015
    Dr. H wrote: »
    It depends on their goal. If it's to be at all taken seriously, this panel is a joke. If it's for entertainment and/or to get fraud touts that can sell picks and give off the illusion that they win to the idiots that will then dump the money back to the casino, then it's a good job. Given that it's likely the later, I suppose it's a good job, but I'd sooner blow my brains out than watch this shit show for more than 10 minutes.

    Who would you want to see on the panel?
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    RightAngle wrote: »
    Tell us how you really feel.

    What do you disagree with?
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Tortuga wrote: »
    Who would you want to see on the panel?

    I don't know that I'm qualified to make that list, and most people that I'd want probably wouldn't participate. I'd certainly support Ed's suggestion of MikeRAS.

    I'd also pay to see groovin and @VegasWatch added to the current panel.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    The guys I'd pay to see are either 6feet under or would cordially decline the invite.
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited August 2015
    Dr. H wrote: »
    What do you disagree with?

    I think their are at least a few guys on the panels that could help recreational bettors win. I wouldn't throw all 10 completely under the bus.

    There is never going to be someone on there giving away super nutty stuff that even semi-advanced bettors would benefit from.

    Try coming up with better people who would be interested in doing it? Groovin could be good, but he and VegasWatch would be better discussing the topic of touts in general.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    RightAngle wrote: »
    I think their are at least a few guys on the panels that could help recreational bettors win. I wouldn't throw all 10 completely under the bus.

    There is never going to be someone on there giving away super nutty stuff that even semi-advanced bettors would benefit from.

    Try coming up with better people who would be interested in doing it? Groovin could be good, but he and VegasWatch would be better discussing the topic of touts in general.

    Yeah I'm not going to claim there are better options that would be willing to do it, there's likely not.

    I do think they're all worthless except ER.

    I think if the actual goal were helping rec bettors, groovin and VegasWatch would do 10x the job of this panel.
  • MikeRASMikeRAS Senior Handicapper
    edited August 2015
    If I did the Supercontest panel for college I would probably be the most boring panelist ever. Any question that revolved around methodology or thoughts on teams in the coming season I would be taking the fifth on. What does that leave to discuss?

    Imagining Cowherd interviewing Harbaugh for comparable entertainment value.
  • procapprocap Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    I'd invite the same exact crew. I'm not one that would want anyone with a clue sharing anything that has significant value. Nothing to worry about with this crew.......
  • TortugaTortuga Moderator
    edited August 2015
    MikeRAS wrote: »
    Imagining Cowherd interviewing Harbaugh for comparable entertainment value.

    I was entertained by that interview, so I'll look forward to your 2016 SuperContest panel appearance.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Tortuga wrote: »
    Westgate...really??? This pretty much discredits this SuperContest panel idea
    http://forums.eog.com/showthread.php/377431-Westgate-really-This-pretty-much-discredits-this-SuperContest-panel-idea


    Two questions:
    1. Who would you want to listen to at an event like this?
    2. If you were hosting an event like this, who would you try to book who would actually participate?

    Getting back to the question

    I would invite

    Michael Roxborough
    Arne Lang
    Bob Sccucci
    Stephen Nover
    Seat Williams to host as he did back in the day at the stardust
    Scotty Spreitzer

    If they were still alive
    Bob Martin
    Lee Pete

    Not many in this list would show but it's who I would invite
  • Walt's WharfWalt's Wharf Member
    edited August 2015
    I'm not sure I buy the argument that winning bettors won't, can't or shouldn't participate on a panel like this. I think many would. But you'd have to change the panel from "How to win" to "How I used to get my ass kicked." That could be informative and educational and wouldn't require that pros give away their methods.

    Would people attend the ass kicking panel? IDK ...

    But as Chuck Martin, the Miami Ohio coach says, "Not many people are selling you a good ass-kicking these days."
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited August 2015
    MikeRAS wrote: »
    If I did the Supercontest panel for college I would probably be the most boring panelist ever.

    No way, you'd be great.
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Dr. H wrote: »
    Yeah I'm not going to claim there are better options that would be willing to do it, there's likely not.

    I do think they're all worthless except ER.

    Other than ER, every single person on this panel with any sort of documented record is a loser. Ken Thomson promotes frauds like Kelly in Vegas all the time. Fezzik, who used to actually win at this, no longer attempts to provide anything resembling correct information, i.e. several times this year has encouraged baseball bettors to bet -1.5 runlines because "-110 on each side is less vig than +190/-230, it's 20 cent vig vs 40 cents.) Todd Fuhrman is basically the equivalent of RJ Bell, constantly promoting fraud touts like Philly Godfather and Payne Insider, and misrepresenting himself as a "former oddsmaker." (He worked for Caesar's as a satellite book manager, but was not "an oddsmaker.") He claimed the fair line on Cubs RSW this year was 76.5, for example. The most obvious example is that he thought Bama +180 was a reasonable line prior to the CFB semifinals this year, even though he said he expected them to be -3 or -4 on average in the final. Their semifinal midpoint ML closing line on Pinny was 73.5% (and was bet down, so the % was even higher prior to the close). A line on the championship of +180 would have required them to be 48.6% on average in the final, so not even close to his -3 or -4 line, and no one thought Bama would be a dog in the final. This "former oddsmaker" apparently can't even perform simple arithmetic.

    I'm not familiar with the CFB panel other than Dave Cokin, a documented loser (I don't know enough about CFB to comment but I do know his MLB advice is wretched and he claims to be an MLB expert), so it's possible some of the other CFB guys have ok info to share, but of the people I do know, other than possibly ER, they're all garbage.
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Most recreational bettors will lose because they don't want to put in the effort, i.e. one of the first pieces of advice I give recreational bettors is to get a fair number of outs, perhaps deposit 10% of bank at 10 different offshores to collect deposit bonuses, so now you can line shop between 10 different books. The vast majority of them say "that's too much work" and only want to bet at one book. That having been said, I think there's value in teaching recreational bettors how to lose less and there are some simple ways they can do that.

    The most obvious reason why the LV Superbook would never want me on their panel -- in the BBO podcast I did a few months ago where I posted the link here, I gave out about an hour's worth of info about how recreational bettors can lose less. Three of the major points were 1) don't buy picks from fraud touts (even if these touts won, the high fees they charge, often $25 a pick or more, would still make many recreational bettors a loser given their bet sizes) 2) don't bet parlays other than 3 teamers at books that use the crappy "parlay chart" payout rather than true odds, i.e. a coin fipper's EV is almost twice as bad betting a 4 teamer at 10/1 on that chart vs the true odds of +1228 3) don't bet futures at books with high vig unless you know how to price them; at a minimum, compare odds to other books and if there's a market, the betting exchanges.

    Well, LV Superbook has a panel full of fraud touts, their parlay odds are mostly worse than true odds (they charge 11/1 on 4 teamers which is still worse than +1228), and their future odds are typically worse than the exchanges. In fact, they blocked me on Twitter for telling some media type not to quote their soccer future prices as market-representative, when they were dealing 80/1 on some team that was 340/1 on the exchanges. So why the heck would the LV Superbook want me on their panel when teaching recreational bettors how to lose less is contrary to their business interests?
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    Getting back to the question

    I would invite

    Michael Roxborough
    Arne Lang
    Bob Sccucci
    Stephen Nover
    Seat Williams to host as he did back in the day at the stardust
    Scotty Spreitzer

    If they were still alive
    Bob Martin
    Lee Pete

    Not many in this list would show but it's who I would invite

    I don't know most of the people on this list, but Spreitzer was -331u over 7500+ picks on Pregame. Given the lines they use, that is a truly remarkable record.

    Nover doesn't even bet some of the crap he sells, he got busted on Pregame releasing an MLB game that was OTB due to a change in scheduled pitchers (the change was late at night so the new line didn't come out until the morning and Nover released the play at 130am Vegas time, falsely claiming he "got down" at a price that never existed; he was looking at a stale line feed), and thought there was a "huge line move" when it was actually just the game being relined at the new pitching matchup.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    I don't know most of the people on this list, but Spreitzer was -331u over 7500+ picks on Pregame. Given the lines they use, that is a truly remarkable record.

    Nover doesn't even bet some of the crap he sells, he got busted on Pregame releasing an MLB game that was OTB due to a change in scheduled pitchers (the change was late at night so the new line didn't come out until the morning and Nover released the play at 130am Vegas time, falsely claiming he "got down" at a price that never existed; he was looking at a stale line feed), and thought there was a "huge line move" when it was actually just the game being relined at the new pitching matchup.

    Most are from way back when. I just threw a few names in there for filler like Stephen Nover who was a sports writer then became a tout and to tell the thruth I don't even know Scotty Spreitzer. You don't know Michael Roxborough known as Michael Roxy he use to set the line in Vegas years ago. I know you have to know Bob Martin. Lee Pete used to do the Lee Pete show at the old Frontier with Donny Badger Seat Williams was always the host at the stardust friday night shows. Bob Sccucci one of the best sports book directors at the Stardust and Jioe Lupo was the person who replaced him when he retired. Just some names I threw out there to make a list and really not take it to seriously because anything a casino does for it's guests is really not in the guests best intrest. This type of thing isn't for information it's a show with names that people read about or hear about good or bad and want to see. Las vegas has turned into a carney show. Don't know if you live here but take a walk around the casino table games everyone has bonus bets and all kinds of BS on them . But you should Google Bob Martin and Michael Roxy can't believe you never heard of them.
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    I'm familiar with the names on your list, at least the living ones (I don't know of the two dead guys), but I'm not familiar enough with them to assess their gambling acumen. Actually I may know of Arne Lang, let me check to see if he's the guy I'm thinking of (if so, we were both in the same contest a few years ago.)
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Arne Lang was the person I had in mind -- 3 years ago, we were both in the same football contest where contestants picked 7 picks per week vs CRIS lines. Juice didn't count, just wins and losses, so picking +3 +110 was the same as picking +3 -135 for contest purposes. Arne won the contest, and one of his picks the final week was Bengals +3 -- CRIS was dealing +3 +110/-3 -130 at the time he submitted the play, and that's where they closed. If you're sharp enough that you can identify one of the 7 best plays on the board for a weekend as a play where you're giving up 4.78% vs the actual line for contest purposes (since effectively all picks were -110), you should probably own your own chain of private islands.
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    And just an FYI, I don't make it a habit to flame people who aren't selling anything unless they grossly misrepresent their expertise. In the case of Arne Lang, he was invited to that football contest that was sponsored by a gambling forum, and his rationale for not posting to the forum was "I only post my expert opinion if I'm paid to do so." If you're going to call yourself an "expert" who deserves payment for his opinion, then give out an NFL pick of +3 when the market is +3.5 as one of your 7 best picks that weekend, be prepared to bend over and get a medical exam from Dr. Mahoovin.
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    This was about as hilariously bad as anyone would have expected. The highlight for me was probably Todd Fuhrman openly declaring to a friend as he left, "I had nothing to say, just had to make up nonsense." All he had to do was discuss the RSW lines for the 16 NFC teams and the 9 or 10 week 1 games involving NFC teams, the lines for which have been out 3+ months, and yet this "expert" had "nothing to say."

    Gems from the panel included T00d suggesting a bet on Seattle un11 with the logic "they have to go 12-4 to beat you," and Warren Sharp suggesting passing on Titans un5.5 "because they could win 6 games." Kelly in Vegas entertained as always; when asked if the Steelers could cover vs NE week 1, her response was "when my friends ask me for a 6th round fantasy QB, I've been suggesting Big Ben," and when asked about the Raiders RSW total of 6, she said "they could win 8 games if they wanted to."

    Kelly's best work was probably in a podcast she did earlier that day. I'll have to subject myself to the entire thing the next time I'm drunk, apparently it's incredible, but people suggested I listen to a 3 minute clip. where the host asked her about the MIN @ SF week 1 game, and she said "the line is -3, so just HFA, and I think that line is right." That game hasn't been lined at 3 since early June, and since the actual line is SF +1, about 9-10% better than the -3 she thought the line was, she should be unloading on SF +1, but guessing she won't.
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