Professional bettor Eddie Walls joined the Betting Talk Slack’s college football channel to discuss this weekend’s college football card. He took requests on 20 games and offered his thoughts on each. You can follow him on Twitter at @walls_edward. You can also sign up to join the Betting Talk Slack community using the sign-up form on our home page!
***
103 VIRGINIA
104 MIAMI FL -4.5, 62.5
Walls: Played UVa +6 tiny last night. Truly confused here. Anyone else remember a Lashlee offense without a good passing game? I do, not pretty. I know UVa has an awful defense but it mostly struggles with pass D and Miami’s pass offense is limited. On the flipside, I have one of the more underrated QBs in the nation at UVa facing a Miami team who struggles overcoming any in-game adversity.
107 IOWA -3, 48
108 MARYLAND
Walls: No team’s defense has leaped more in my mind early than Maryland’s. I kept saying, “Oh, that was WVU, Illinois, etc.” But last week they completely dissected the fastest RPO in the FBS besides Ole Miss. They have a special QB but he’s going to need to be everything and more here. You’re not running on Iowa. Iowa is going to kill the clock like crazy and we know if you can get Petras to throw the ball you have a huge advantage. I want to like the Terps and under here. My numbers disagree with both. Pass for me.
111 SYRACUSE
112 FLORIDA STATE -4.5, 51
Walls: Is there a weirder favorite this week? Not that I don’t understand it. I can’t find what FSU does or is supposed to be doing. They run it well but abandon it quickly to pass it poorly unless behind. They don’t stop the run well despite cheating up front. I don’t like Cuse either. Babers is playing a 3-3-5 slow pace. That might work against other slow-paced teams like Liberty and Ohio etc. Made this FSU -2.5 and grabbed Cuse +4.5. Just a numbers play. Would prefer to play against both teams until further notice.
119 MINNESOTA
120 PURDUE -2.5, 47
Walls: Who’s betting Minnesota overs at this point? Does he give loans? In all seriousness, Minnesota is running an Army type of offense minus the option. Slow, run-based and passing when absolutely necessary. Purdue is also playing slow (because their coach is letting the DC run the team essentially) and while pass based it’s almost all 5-7 yard routes. They should get Bell back Saturday but look at the Notre Dame game to show you the plan for Purdue. If they won’t open the offense up there, when will they? Played under.
121 PITTSBURGH -3, 58.5
122 GEORGIA TECH
Walls: Hard to run on Narduzzi D’s — they cheat up and play so tough inside. You can beat them all day through the air though. Sims is going to have to be special as he was a week ago. On the flip side, Pickett should have no problems vs GT’s secondary. I still think Pitt being so pass heavy will catch up to them often throughout the year. Not sure it happens here. Made it Pitt -4 (strengths lean them) and 58. Nothing for me here. Pass.
125 APPALACHIAN STATE -10, 54.5
126 GEORGIA STATE
Walls: Big game for me. Those not paying attention didn’t see Elliot switch his QBs two weeks ago from a pure passer to a battering ram QB and running these little wrinkles with three different options. It’s really slow and effective (ask Auburn) and also opens up easy passes but he’s mostly inaccurate so far. App State is a beast on defense and is a run-based offense. They love to eat clock and try to pass when necessary but under here is one of my favorite plays this week.
131 INDIANA
132 PENN STATE -12.5, 53.5
Walls: Let me start by saying I was sky high on Indiana to begin the year. Then Iowa happens, then Cincy happens. Fine. Then last week I’m on over in the Indiana-WKU game and I saw Indiana faking injuries on D to slow down WKU. Penix is no longer a runner and is just a statue getting knocked around, no run game. Now they lose their 2nd and 3rd best WR and the writing is on the wall for me. Penn State has a lot of positives and I think this OC hire which has always shown to be brilliant gets them where they need to go all year. I laid it with Penn State.
153 AIR FORCE -11.5, 45.5
154 NEW MEXICO
Walls: I played under earlier at a better number. You have Rocky Long and Danny Gonzales who have prepared for this option for 15 years. Calhoun has a real defense. They’re also talented on offense and can control the ball for a ton of time. UNM and QB Wilson just don’t have an offense to speak of yet. Nothing on the side. Total is a pass at current.
157 CINCINNATI -1.5, 50.5
158 NOTRE DAME
Walls: I love Cincy and think they have a special coach, QB and secondary. I honestly didn’t expect them to be favored. I also hate that their longtime DC is now the opposition. That’s just huge. How does everyone keep talking about everything but that? He has sat in every meeting with the OC, HC and QB presumably at times for four years. Tough game. Easier spots on board for me. Made it PK and 51.
171 MISSISSIPPI
172 ALABAMA -14.5, 79
Walls: I have some mild concerns that with a freshman QB, new OC and new OL that Bama will want to play slow and try to control the ball which they might easily. Also, Ole Miss is better on D this year, but after having to watch Clemson and Oklahoma’s entire offenses get NIL deals through DuPont, we are owed points! Lots of points! Hit the over 1st quarter type of points. Played over tiny Monday morning.
175 SOUTH FLORIDA
176 SMU -21, 68.5
Walls: We just saw SMU play their A+++ game. There’s gonna be a bit of regression numbers wise off that performance at some point but it might not be here. USF is still trying to figure things out on D and are extremely prone to giving up big plays. Still, after stumbling Week 1 vs what we now know is maybe a special defense in NC state, their offense has started to string together some points. Played over medium and it never even blinked.
179 ARKANSAS
180 GEORGIA -18, 48
Walls: I played UGA right away. I didn’t like the injury to Jefferson and now we have Burks in a boot postgame. I think Arkansas is dinged up. Great story but they’re run based. You’re not running on UGA and there’s a chance you’re not passing on them either. Arkansas has looked good on D vs Texas’s freshman QB and Texas A&M’s freshman. This UGA offense has just so much damn talent. I made this -27 preseason. I’ve moved Arkansas up three times now. Can’t come close to not finding value in the UGA side.
183 TENNESSEE
184 MISSOURI -3, 65
Walls: Missouri can’t stop the run or the pass. Tennessee is supposed to have a pass D and gave up 500 plus to Pitt. Could only play one way and probably had to get in early. Over or pass. Fun game. We should learn a lot about how to attack these teams and adjust their numbers going forward.
185 TEXAS -5, 65
186 TCU
Walls: Texas lost two WR’s last week. How many do they have? I have a rule early in the season: If I lose twice in a row in bad fashion with the same team I just leave them alone and work on their numbers until I regain confidence. I backed TCU vs both Cal and SMU. I’m not dying to get involved here. Obvious to me that this Thompson kid is a ton better than the freshman Texas tried to play in early weeks. I made it Texas -2.5 and total 62.5.
189 OKLAHOMA -10.5, 52.5
190 KANSAS STATE
Walls: What was this game five weeks ago? OU -20? More? Oklahoma is so lost that I can’t really back them with confidence. Also not sure that Klieman doesn’t have Lincoln Riley’s number. The talent is not close. KSU QB? Who is it?! Oklahoma’s run defense is giving you nothing. Is Oklahoma going to come out passing on this young secondary? They didn’t against a similar youthful WVU secondary. Passed but numbers like Oklahoma a bit.
197 AUBURN
198 LSU -3.5, 55.5
Walls: It’s about time Auburn moved away from Nix. Finley can really give them something with his legs. Unfortunately, Harsin has never ran the QB in any offense that I can recall. LSU feels like a team everyone likes to bet against but can’t give me any intelligent explanations as to why. Not a game on my radar. Made it LSU -4.5 and 56. I passed.
199 MICHIGAN
200 WISCONSIN -2, 43.5
Walls: I think both teams have insanely vanilla offenses. I saw Rutgers limit Michigan to less than 100 yards of offense in a second half. They’ll have to pass here. Can they? Wisconsin is big as heck on both sides of the ball but this OL is not great. This is going to be a grind. I played under 44 and still would at 43.5.
205 UNLV
206 UTSA -21, 56.5
Walls: I told everyone UTSA and Traylor was legit and would win the CUSA this year. They have no weaknesses besides they play different tempos vs opponents making them among the hardest to make a total for. UNLV looked amazing vs Fresno for 3.5 quarters but something is going on here with them. They have a real run D and seemingly are a QB away from a real offense. Regardless, I prefer under here and was hoping to play it but it’s just not likely. UTSA plays slower when they have an edge and Harris is still recovering from injuries last year. They play to stay healthy in small sample sizes under Traylor. I made this -21 and total 55.5.
215 NORTHWESTERN
216 NEBRASKA -11.5, 51.5
Walls: How could someone bet over here with confidence? This is a very ball control offense here in Lincoln. Also not sure NW has a chance vs this run D and they’re on QB #4, I think. Also NW is just so injured on offense. This feels like a game where you can finally avoid making Martinez throw and turn the ball over. Played some under last night.
221 ARIZONA STATE
222 UCLA -3, 55.5
Walls: Wanted to play under here but the number was always about right. I didn’t like that injury to DTR at the end of the game last week. ASU and UCLA run the same offense basically. Heavy run schemes and QBs with RPO and I’ve been increasingly impressed with UCLA’s run defense. UCLA plays with a bit more pace obviously but this is a pass for me. I’m keeping an eye on this one early. Anything from DTR that looks uncomfortable and I’ll be involved.