Author: Parker Rome

Q&A /

College football Week 5 Q&A with Eddie Walls

Professional bettor Eddie Walls joined the Betting Talk Slack’s college football channel to discuss this weekend’s college football card. He took requests on 20 games and offered his thoughts on each. You can follow him on Twitter at @walls_edward. You can also sign up to join the Betting Talk Slack community using the sign-up form on our home page! 

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103 VIRGINIA
104 MIAMI FL -4.5, 62.5

Walls: Played UVa +6 tiny last night. Truly confused here. Anyone else remember a Lashlee offense without a good passing game? I do, not pretty. I know UVa has an awful defense but it mostly struggles with pass D and Miami’s pass offense is limited. On the flipside, I have one of the more underrated QBs in the nation at UVa facing a Miami team who struggles overcoming any in-game adversity. 

107 IOWA -3, 48
108 MARYLAND

Walls: No team’s defense has leaped more in my mind early than Maryland’s. I kept saying, “Oh, that was WVU, Illinois, etc.” But last week they completely dissected the fastest RPO in the FBS besides Ole Miss. They have a special QB but he’s going to need to be everything and more here. You’re not running on Iowa. Iowa is going to kill the clock like crazy and we know if you can get Petras to throw the ball you have a huge advantage. I want to like the Terps and under here. My numbers disagree with both. Pass for me.

111 SYRACUSE
112 FLORIDA STATE -4.5, 51

Walls: Is there a weirder favorite this week? Not that I don’t understand it. I can’t find what FSU does or is supposed to be doing. They run it well but abandon it quickly to pass it poorly unless behind. They don’t stop the run well despite cheating up front. I don’t like Cuse either. Babers is playing a 3-3-5 slow pace. That might work against other slow-paced teams like Liberty and Ohio etc. Made this FSU -2.5 and grabbed Cuse +4.5. Just a numbers play. Would prefer to play against both teams until further notice.

119 MINNESOTA
120 PURDUE -2.5, 47 

Walls: Who’s betting Minnesota overs at this point? Does he give loans? In all seriousness, Minnesota is running an Army type of offense minus the option. Slow, run-based and passing when absolutely necessary. Purdue is also playing slow (because their coach is letting the DC run the team essentially) and while pass based it’s almost all 5-7 yard routes. They should get Bell back Saturday but look at the Notre Dame game to show you the plan for Purdue. If they won’t open the offense up there, when will they? Played under.

121 PITTSBURGH -3, 58.5
122 GEORGIA TECH

Walls: Hard to run on Narduzzi D’s — they cheat up and play so tough inside. You can beat them all day through the air though. Sims is going to have to be special as he was a week ago. On the flip side, Pickett should have no problems vs GT’s secondary. I still think Pitt being so pass heavy will catch up to them often throughout the year. Not sure it happens here. Made it Pitt -4 (strengths lean them) and 58. Nothing for me here. Pass.

125 APPALACHIAN STATE -10, 54.5 
126 GEORGIA STATE

Walls: Big game for me. Those not paying attention didn’t see Elliot switch his QBs two weeks ago from a pure passer to a battering ram QB and running these little wrinkles with three different options. It’s really slow and effective (ask Auburn) and also opens up easy passes but he’s mostly inaccurate so far. App State is a beast on defense and is a run-based offense. They love to eat clock and try to pass when necessary but under here is one of my favorite plays this week. 

131 INDIANA
132 PENN STATE -12.5, 53.5

Walls: Let me start by saying I was sky high on Indiana to begin the year. Then Iowa happens, then Cincy happens. Fine. Then last week I’m on over in the Indiana-WKU game and I saw Indiana faking injuries on D to slow down WKU. Penix is no longer a runner and is just a statue getting knocked around, no run game. Now they lose their 2nd and 3rd best WR and the writing is on the wall for me. Penn State has a lot of positives and I think this OC hire which has always shown to be brilliant gets them where they need to go all year. I laid it with Penn State. 

153 AIR FORCE -11.5, 45.5
154 NEW MEXICO

Walls: I played under earlier at a better number. You have Rocky Long and Danny Gonzales who have prepared for this option for 15 years. Calhoun has a real defense. They’re also talented on offense and can control the ball for a ton of time. UNM and QB Wilson just don’t have an offense to speak of yet. Nothing on the side. Total is a pass at current.

157 CINCINNATI -1.5, 50.5
158 NOTRE DAME

Walls: I love Cincy and think they have a special coach, QB and secondary. I honestly didn’t expect them to be favored. I also hate that their longtime DC is now the opposition. That’s just huge. How does everyone keep talking about everything but that? He has sat in every meeting with the OC, HC and QB presumably at times for four years. Tough game. Easier spots on board for me. Made it PK and 51. 

171 MISSISSIPPI
172 ALABAMA -14.5, 79

Walls: I have some mild concerns that with a freshman QB, new OC and new OL that Bama will want to play slow and try to control the ball which they might easily. Also, Ole Miss is better on D this year, but after having to watch Clemson and Oklahoma’s entire offenses get NIL deals through DuPont, we are owed points! Lots of points! Hit the over 1st quarter type of points. Played over tiny Monday morning.

175 SOUTH FLORIDA
176 SMU -21, 68.5

Walls: We just saw SMU play their A+++ game. There’s gonna be a bit of regression numbers wise off that performance at some point but it might not be here. USF is still trying to figure things out on D and are extremely prone to giving up big plays. Still, after stumbling Week 1 vs what we now know is maybe a special defense in NC state, their offense has started to string together some points. Played over medium and it never even blinked.

179 ARKANSAS
180 GEORGIA -18, 48

Walls: I played UGA right away. I didn’t like the injury to Jefferson and now we have Burks in a boot postgame. I think Arkansas is dinged up. Great story but they’re run based. You’re not running on UGA and there’s a chance you’re not passing on them either. Arkansas has looked good on D vs Texas’s freshman QB and Texas A&M’s freshman. This UGA offense has just so much damn talent. I made this -27 preseason. I’ve moved Arkansas up three times now. Can’t come close to not finding value in the UGA side.

183 TENNESSEE 
184 MISSOURI -3, 65

Walls: Missouri can’t stop the run or the pass. Tennessee is supposed to have a pass D and gave up 500 plus to Pitt. Could only play one way and probably had to get in early. Over or pass. Fun game. We should learn a lot about how to attack these teams and adjust their numbers going forward. 

185 TEXAS -5, 65
186 TCU

Walls: Texas lost two WR’s last week. How many do they have? I have a rule early in the season: If I lose twice in a row in bad fashion with the same team I just leave them alone and work on their numbers until I regain confidence. I backed TCU vs both Cal and SMU. I’m not dying to get involved here. Obvious to me that this Thompson kid is a ton better than the freshman Texas tried to play in early weeks. I made it Texas -2.5 and total 62.5.

189 OKLAHOMA -10.5, 52.5
190 KANSAS STATE

Walls: What was this game five weeks ago? OU -20? More? Oklahoma is so lost that I can’t really back them with confidence. Also not sure that Klieman doesn’t have Lincoln Riley’s number. The talent is not close. KSU QB? Who is it?! Oklahoma’s run defense is giving you nothing. Is Oklahoma going to come out passing on this young secondary? They didn’t against a similar youthful WVU secondary. Passed but numbers like Oklahoma a bit. 

197 AUBURN
198 LSU -3.5, 55.5

Walls: It’s about time Auburn moved away from Nix. Finley can really give them something with his legs. Unfortunately, Harsin has never ran the QB in any offense that I can recall. LSU feels like a team everyone likes to bet against but can’t give me any intelligent explanations as to why. Not a game on my radar. Made it LSU -4.5 and 56. I passed.

199 MICHIGAN
200 WISCONSIN -2, 43.5

Walls: I think both teams have insanely vanilla offenses. I saw Rutgers limit Michigan to less than 100 yards of offense in a second half. They’ll have to pass here. Can they? Wisconsin is big as heck on both sides of the ball but this OL is not great. This is going to be a grind. I played under 44 and still would at 43.5.

205 UNLV
206 UTSA -21, 56.5

Walls: I told everyone UTSA and Traylor was legit and would win the CUSA this year. They have no weaknesses besides they play different tempos vs opponents making them among the hardest to make a total for. UNLV looked amazing vs Fresno for 3.5 quarters but something is going on here with them. They have a real run D and seemingly are a QB away from a real offense. Regardless, I prefer under here and was hoping to play it but it’s just not likely. UTSA plays slower when they have an edge and Harris is still recovering from injuries last year. They play to stay healthy in small sample sizes under Traylor. I made this -21 and total 55.5. 

215 NORTHWESTERN 
216 NEBRASKA -11.5, 51.5

Walls: How could someone bet over here with confidence? This is a very ball control offense here in Lincoln. Also not sure NW has a chance vs this run D and they’re on QB #4, I think. Also NW is just so injured on offense. This feels like a game where you can finally avoid making Martinez throw and turn the ball over. Played some under last night.

221 ARIZONA STATE 
222 UCLA -3, 55.5

Walls: Wanted to play under here but the number was always about right. I didn’t like that injury to DTR at the end of the game last week. ASU and UCLA run the same offense basically. Heavy run schemes and QBs with RPO and I’ve been increasingly impressed with UCLA’s run defense. UCLA plays with a bit more pace obviously but this is a pass for me. I’m keeping an eye on this one early. Anything from DTR that looks uncomfortable and I’ll be involved. 

SPORTS BETTING /

How pros use picks and information from others

By RAS

We have often pointed out that some of the most successful pros in the industry openly admit to following others and/or buying picks. Why do they do this and how do they utilize this information?

Let’s start by noting some of the examples described below are rare, or even exceptions to the rule. Most people who freely share or sell picks and/or information don’t win and present no value. You should be overly skeptical when considering using information and/or picks of others. Knowing who, why and how to follow someone are skills that must be developed with time and experience. With that said, always keep an open mind. People who win or provide value do very much exist. It is a pro’s job to find and identify them. With legalization spreading in the United States there are more talented up-and-comers in the space than ever before.

Long term winners who beat closing line

This is the most obvious reason to follow someone. You find someone with an established long-term record and/or someone whose plays consistently beat the closing line. You are able to follow their plays at the same line they play. The cost can range from free (if you find someone on Twitter/Slack/podcast/forum/etc.) to thousands of dollars for a season of picks from an established service and everything in between. You bet enough per play to justify any potential cost, and you are simply adding +EV volume to your portfolio.

Handicappers who provide write-ups and/or info

This requires a degree of skill, experience and expertise, but we often extract valuable info from write-ups posted by non-winning bettors. Oftentimes, it is a nugget or a perspective we hadn’t previously considered in a market that we follow closely, but that isn’t always the case. There have been several times through the years in markets big and small where the info being presented has clear value that we can leverage. More often than you might imagine, the person providing the info publicly for free is oblivious to just how valuable the info they’re sharing truly is. There are a lot of hard-working people in this industry whose efforts and information can add value to you for little to no cost.

Market Timing

Let’s say you are an active participant in a basketball market and have invested considerable time and resources into it. You start noticing that at around the same time each day a handful of lines suddenly steam a full point and even more in some cases. You come to find out that it’s some guy you never heard of posting picks on a message board or Slack or it’s a guy on Twitter with only 100 followers. It could also be a handicapping service that you had assumed was a scam.

For a pro, removing anonymity from a line move on the screen is invaluable. Instead of being surprised, wondering who it is and if it’s real, we know the exact source and timing of it. If we match up, we will bet immediately. If we are opposite, we may help that line keep moving with the intent to play opposite later at higher limits. If the plays beat the closing line, appear to be winning long term or are creating scalpable positions, we may just follow along blindly and decide what to do later. It becomes a no-brainer for us to be on that message board/Slack constantly, get alerts for that guy on Twitter and/or buy that service.

Make no mistake about it, it is hard to win. Identifying and utilizing value provided by others in the space is an important tool that can help even pros at the highest levels be more successful.

Questions? Comments? Continue the discussion in the Betting Talk Slack community. Join more than 4,400 other sports bettors discussing a full range of sports betting topics in what has become the essential sharp sports betting community.

Betting roundup /

Trump admin sides with NFL in betting case; Golden Knights off to surprising start

Each Friday, we’ll comb through as many articles, tweets and podcasts as we can find related to the world of sports betting and daily fantasy sports, and publish the good stuff here. 

Stumble upon something you think we should include? Email info@bettingtalk.com.

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Extending the nation’s longest losing streak, the Trump administration is on the wrong side of yet another issue.

The Trump administration is siding with professional sports leagues in their opposition to allowing New Jersey to offer sports betting, while Republican Gov. Chris Christie is calling the leagues “hypocrites” for opposing betting while having teams in Las Vegas.

The solicitor general’s office filed a brief with the U.S. Supreme Court this week supporting the leagues ahead of arguments scheduled for Dec. 4.

The Vegas Golden Knights entered their inaugural NHL season with the lowest win total in the league (26.5). Through eight games, they’re 7-1. An article published by FiveThirtyEight said the Golden Knights are the best expansion team in NHL history, but they “will still probably miss the playoffs.”

Three weeks into the NHL season, there’s little that makes sense in the standings. The Montreal Canadiens and the New York Rangers — Eastern Conference stalwarts in recent years — have combined for three wins.1Meanwhile, several of the league’s recent doormats — like the Philadelphia Flyers and the New Jersey Devils — are looking surprisingly dangerous. But perhaps the biggest oddity of all is this: The Vegas Golden Knights are playing some good hockey.

Of course, it’s early and the Knights are up against some tough narratives: The quixotic practice of desert hockey hasn’t exactly worked out for the NHL to this point (looking at you, Phoenix), and no expansion team from the past 26 years has made the playoffs in its first season. But no expansion team from the past 26 years — or in the history of the NHL, for that matter — has gotten off to this good of a start, either.

The Knights’ six wins in seven tries are remarkable considering how their expansion brethren have fared. Among the other nine expansion teams that began play since 1991, only three — the 1992-93 Tampa Bay Lightning, the 1993-94 Florida Panthers and the 1993-94 Mighty Ducks of Anaheim — managed to win more than one of their first seven games. And then there’s the case of the putrid 1992-93 Ottawa Senators, who didn’t win their second game until their 23rd try.

 

The Golden Knights have been attracting a significant betting handle in Las Vegas.

Las Vegas sportsbooks said they’ve taken more action on the Dodgers than the Astros in the World Series.

“The perception is the Dodgers are a lot better than the Astros,” Westgate sports book director Jay Kornegay said. “But once you start digging into the stats and looking at these two teams, they’re very comparable.

“A lot of people think the Dodgers can walk through this but I think it’s going to closer than they think.”

The early action at Station Casinos was heavily in favor of Los Angeles to win the Fall Classic.

“It’s been pretty one-sided,” Sunset Station sports book director Chuck Esposito said. “The first several wagers we accepted were all on the Dodgers. The Dodgers are the much more public team.”