nfl Betting Tools

What is the percentage chance a team wins the game based on the closing point spread?

Using the handy spread-to-moneyline converter available at SBR Forum, we came up with tables for favorite and underdog win percentages based on the point spread across the NFL, college football, NBA and college basketball.

Note: Apologies to those who had this post bookmarked in the past. That post has been deleted, but here it is again. Enjoy. And bookmark!

Note II: You can also use these to calculate projected wins for a season based on projected — or actual — point spreads. For example, the Seahawks are favored by 5 over the Packers in the Thursday Night opener, so that’d count as 0.681 wins for Seattle and 0.319 wins for Green Bay. Do that a bunch of times and you get a rough estimate of the “Vegas projection” (or, more accurately, the CG Technologies projection) of wins for each NFL team.

NFL

SpreadFavoriteUnderdog
050.0%50.0%
0.550.0%50.0%
151.3%48.8%
1.552.5%47.5%
253.5%46.5%
2.554.5%45.5%
359.4%40.6%
3.564.3%35.7%
465.8%34.2%
4.567.3%32.7%
568.1%31.9%
5.569.0%31.1%
670.7%29.4%
6.572.4%27.7%
775.2%24.8%
7.578.1%21.9%
879.1%20.9%
8.580.2%19.8%
980.7%19.3%
9.581.1%18.9%
1083.6%16.4%
10.586.0%14.0%
1187.1%12.9%
11.588.2%11.8%
1288.5%11.6%
12.588.7%11.3%
1389.3%10.7%
13.590.0%10.0%
1492.4%7.6%
14.594.9%5.1%
1595.6%4.4%
15.596.3%3.7%
1698.1%1.9%
16.599.8%0.2%
17+100.0%0.0%

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

SpreadFavoriteUnderdog
050.0%50.0%
0.550.0%50.0%
151.2%48.8%
1.552.5%47.5%
253.4%46.6%
2.554.3%45.8%
357.4%42.6%
3.560.6%39.4%
461.9%38.1%
4.563.1%36.9%
564.1%35.9%
5.565.1%34.9%
666.4%33.6%
6.567.7%32.3%
770.3%29.7%
7.573.0%27.0%
873.8%26.2%
8.574.6%25.4%
975.1%25.0%
9.575.5%24.5%
1077.4%22.6%
10.579.3%20.8%
1179.9%20.1%
11.580.6%19.4%
1281.6%18.4%
12.582.6%17.4%
1383.0%17.0%
13.583.5%16.5%
1485.1%14.9%
14.586.8%13.2%
1587.4%12.6%
15.588.1%12.0%
1688.6%11.5%
16.589.1%11.0%
1791.4%8.6%
17.593.7%6.3%
1895.0%5.1%
18.596.2%3.8%
1997.3%2.7%
19.598.4%1.6%
20+100.0%0.0%

NBA

SpreadFavoriteUnderdog
050.0%50.0%
0.550.0%50.0%
151.1%48.9%
1.552.3%47.7%
254.3%45.7%
2.556.3%43.7%
358.2%41.8%
3.560.1%39.9%
461.9%38.1%
4.563.6%36.4%
565.8%34.2%
5.568.0%32.0%
670.1%29.9%
6.572.1%27.9%
774.2%25.8%
7.576.3%23.8%
878.4%21.7%
8.580.5%19.6%
982.8%17.2%
9.585.2%14.8%
1087.3%12.7%
10.589.4%10.6%
1191.3%8.7%
11.593.2%6.8%
1295.0%5.0%
12.596.8%3.2%
1398.7%1.3%
13.5+100.0%0.0%

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

SpreadFavoriteUnderdog
050.0%50.0%
0.550.0%50.0%
151.7%48.3%
1.553.5%46.5%
255.4%44.6%
2.557.4%42.6%
359.7%40.3%
3.562.1%38.0%
464.1%35.9%
4.566.2%33.8%
568.2%31.8%
5.570.2%29.8%
672.0%28.1%
6.573.7%26.3%
775.8%24.3%
7.577.8%22.2%
879.8%20.3%
8.581.7%18.3%
983.8%16.2%
9.585.9%14.1%
1088.1%11.9%
10.590.3%9.7%
1192.4%7.6%
11.594.5%5.5%
1296.7%3.3%
12.598.9%1.1%
13+100.0%0.0%