Betting Roundup /

When it comes to the Super Bowl, public betting action carries more weight

Some might argue that the simplification of all betting action to sharps vs. the public creates a false dichotomy. Without even considering the market manipulation of syndicates, sophisticated gamblers are not a homogeneous behemoth, betting in perfect unison—and neither, for that matter, are recreational bettors.

But that doesn’t mean sports books view all incoming money equally, either, says Dave Mason of offshore book BetOnline.

“Absolutely, the sharp money trumps all,” Mason said. “Not all books do it that way, but we respect that sharp money. If we go to 6 and it gets hit by one guy who’s a respected player for four or five figures, then we’re going back down to 5.5. That’s all we need to know.”

Public vs. sharp money has been a trending topic surrounding Super Bowl 50, as a cavalcade of bets on Carolina has pushed the spread up two points in many places. It’s climbed as high as six at some shops before high-stakes bettors brought the consensus back down to 5.5, where it currently sits at most books.

Mason said BetOnline typically wouldn’t react as much as they have over the last two weeks to the bets of occasional gamblers, but the Super Bowl is “a different animal,” both in terms of volume and timing.

As of Thursday afternoon, eighty percent of handle wagered on the point spread was on the Panthers, putting BetOnline, and many other books, in a precarious position.

“If the game started in 10 minutes, it would be the biggest need in the history of the company,” Mason said. “And we’ve still got, what, three more days of action to come in? Seventy-five percent of the action left to come in? That’s really all you need to know.

“In a perfect world, next Monday or Tuesday everybody says, ‘OK, the Super Bowl’s over, let’s bet basketball now,’” Mason said. “But that’s just not the reality. There’s so many guys going into hibernation until next September … whereas during the regular season we had a few weekends where we just got hammered, and the following weekend what happens? They’re betting more. So you’re gonna get it back sooner or later. But the Super Bowl, that’s the grand finale, man. If you don’t get it back, if you get your ass kicked this Sunday—and we could, we very well could—then the processing department is going to be on overdrive on Monday paying everybody out.”

Mason said based on trends seen elsewhere, he’d be surprised if the line at BetOnline climbed higher than 5.5, but he also couldn’t rule it out.

“At six we really think the sharps are going to hit it,” he said. “They’ve hit six elsewhere, so we’ve gathered that intel and we take that into consideration.

“So, I doubt it goes to six with us, but you never know. If it comes to Sunday and the money is still pouring in on the Panthers—our guys usually have in mind where they want that need to be, that risk, that exposure to be and once it hits that number and starts going above that number, then they’ll re-evaluate.”

AROUND THE WEB

LOOK WHO’S TALKING

“We started seeing everyone go to -5.5 yesterday, but we weren’t ready to go. I told our crew to hold the number and let me know when someone wanted a large wager, and sure enough a guy came in a few minutes later and asked us how much we’d take with Denver at +6. We took a larger than normal wager and moved, but we’re still way long on Carolina.” —Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller on Super Bowl betting action.

“Applying the ‘dominant factor’ standard, I do not believe that daily fantasy sports constitute a ‘game of chance’ and therefore, daily fantasy sports games do not constitute a lottery under Rhode Island law. —Rhode Island Attorney General Peter Kilmartin in his formal opinion on DFS.

TWEETS OF NOTE

ODDS & ENDS

  • Peyton Manning’s lawyers reportedly sent private investigators to the home of the key witness in that Al Jazeera documentary.
  • ESPN commentator/troll Danny Kanell’s ongoing insistence that concussions aren’t really a big deal drew some fun responses on Twitter last night, including from Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Brandon McCarthy.
  • Surprising no one, Sheldon Adelson is reportedly asserting editorial control of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, and is killing/re-writing stories involving his plan to get a Las Vegas stadium built for the Raiders using public money.
  • Clinton Portis reportedly paid casino debt with bad checks.
  • Playboy model and JetBet spokesperson Katie May dead at 34.

ODDSMAKER’S TAKE

“This year is really rare in that nobody is betting on the Broncos. For whatever reason, we just don’t seem to see any money coming in on Denver, and floods of money coming in on the Carolina Panthers.” —Matthew Holt, Vice President of Business Development at CG Analytics, with more evidence of Carolina’s popularity.