The SEC has won the last seven national championships and is favored to make it eight straight, as BCS favorite Alabama—in addition to Texas A&M, Georgia, South Carolina and Florida—are all expected to contend in 2013.
By using projected point spreads (derived from Games of the Year lines), we’ve calculated win odds for each team and determined their chances of remaining unbeaten throughout the regular season.
As you might expect, the Crimson Tide have the best chance (47.9%) to run the table and are a projected favorite of at least a touchdown in all 12 regular season games.
The next most likely team to finish a perfect 12-0?
Third-ranked Oregon.
The Ducks, playing under first-year coach Mark Helfrich, won’t be challenged until an Oct. 12 matchup at Washington and have a 44.2-percent chance to finish unbeaten. They’re a projected favorite in every game, and would be the likely favorite against the Pac-12 South champion in the conference title game.
Other teams with realistic chances of finishing unbeaten: Ohio State (28.7%), Louisville (16.2%) and Florida State (10.5%).
The first 10 weeks for each team are listed in the table below. [Click here for all weeks]
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| RANK | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 96% | 96% | 60.5% | 60.5% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 47.9% | 47.9% | 47.9% | 47.9% | |
| 2 | Ohio St. | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100.0% | 77.0% | 52.4% | 52.4% | 52.4% | 45.6% | 44.2% | 44.2% | 44.2% | 44.2% | 28.7% | |
| 3 | Oregon | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 85.0% | 85.0% | 85.0% | 85.0% | 56.1% | 56.1% | 46.6% | 44.2% | |
| 4 | Stanford | 100% | 100% | 100% | 75.0% | 72.8% | 58.2% | 48.3% | 38.2% | 20.6% | 20.6% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% | |
| 5 | Georgia | 52% | 35.4% | 35.4% | 35.4% | 23.3% | 18.9% | 17.8% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.5% | |
| 6 | Texas A&M | 100% | 100% | 37.0% | 37.0% | 32.6% | 32.6% | 19.9% | 19.9% | 17.7% | 17.7% | 17.7% | 17.7% | 9.0% | 7.5% | |
| 7 | South Carolina | 80% | 25.6% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 17.4% | 17.4% | 13.9% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.7% | |
| 8 | Clemson | 48% | 48% | 48% | 38.4% | 38.4% | 28.8% | 28.8% | 14.7% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 2.8% | |
| 9 | Louisville | 100% | 100% | 84% | 84% | 84% | 74.8% | 62.1% | 51.5% | 41.7% | 41.7% | 33.8% | 30.1% | 30.1% | 30.1% | 16.2% |
| 10 | Florida | 100% | 53% | 53% | 44.5% | 42.7% | 38.0% | 14.5% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | |
| 11 | Notre Dame | 100% | 50% | 41.5% | 29.1% | 14.5% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.2% | |
| 12 | Florida St. | 77% | 77% | 77% | 77% | 73.2% | 73.2% | 73.2% | 35.8% | 34.8% | 26.1% | 24.5% | 22.3% | 22.3% | 10.5% | |
| 13 | LSU | 62% | 62% | 62% | 59.5% | 20.2% | 15.6% | 9.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | Oklahoma St. | 83% | 83% | 83% | 83% | 62.3% | 46.7% | 46.7% | 35.0% | 29.4% | 22.1% | 22.1% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 3.7% |
| 15 | Texas | 100% | 75% | 51% | 39.3% | 39.3% | 34.2% | 21.2% | 21.2% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% |
| 16 | Oklahoma | 100% | 89% | 83.7% | 83.7% | 41.8% | 31.4% | 15.4% | 15.4% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 2.3% |
| 17 | Michigan | 100% | 50% | 50% | 41% | 41% | 36.1% | 18.0% | 16.1% | 16.1% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | |
| 18 | Nebraska | 100% | 100% | 66.0% | 66.0% | 66.0% | 64.7% | 49.8% | 49.8% | 37.4% | 22.8% | 8.9% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | |
| 19 | Boise St. | 39% | 39% | 38.2% | 19.1% | 19.1% | 19.1% | 14.3% | 13.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | |
| 20 | TCU | 38% | 38% | 21.7% | 21.7% | 21.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | UCLA | 100% | 100% | 34.0% | 34.0% | 34.0% | 21.8% | 19.4% | 4.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 22 | Northwestern | 65% | 52.7% | 52.7% | 52.7% | 52.7% | 16.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | Wisconsin | 100% | 100% | 50% | 47% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | |
| 24 | USC | 100% | 100% | 100% | 96.0% | 48.0% | 48.0% | 33.6% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | |
| 25 | Oregon St. | 100% | 100% | 70% | 46.2% | 46.2% | 46.2% | 38.3% | 31.4% | 14.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.1% |