Super Bowl 50 smashes record with $132 million wagered in Nevada sports books

A record $132.5 million was wagered on Super Bowl 50 at Nevada’s sportsbooks, the state’s gaming commission reported Monday, breaking the previous record by a significant margin.

And books won a healthy share of that total, holding $13.3 million for a win percentage just north of 10 percent. The previous mark, $119.4 million, was set two years ago when Seattle walloped Denver 43-8, resulting in a record hold of $19 million for the books.

In the run-up to this year’s game it looked as if bookmakers might be headed for a similarly huge win (or loss) as bettors showed heavy support for the favored Panthers. But late action swung toward the Broncos, who won 24-10, behind a dominant defensive performance.

It wasn’t ideal for the books; support for Denver on the moneyline and Von Miller winning the MVP proved costly, but they won big on the under (43.5) and most reported a net positive from prop betting.

The sportsbooks have now won in 24 of 26 years since the Nevada Gaming Commission began tracking and reporting results, and this year’s $10 million hold ranks as the third most during that span.

TELEVISION NEWS MAGS TAKE ON DFS TUESDAY

Apparently the screeners have been sent out for the “The Fantasy Sports Gamble,” a Frontline/New York Times investigative documentary set to air Tuesday night on PBS.

Expect moralizing. A review from Variety says the producers have “done yeoman’s work in shedding light on the unsavory nature” of DFS sites.

Also tonight, 60 Minutes Sports, which airs on Showtime, will take a look at DFS and sounds like it may include new and possibly damaging information.

The NY Post reports that the Showtime feature includes info that two “insiders” from DFS sites are working with state investigators, and that more legal action could be forthcoming.

The New York Times has released a preview of its piece, which appears to be mostly a retread of its already-published articles, including its investigation into online sports betting.

60 Minutes Sports airs at 8 p.m. Eastern on Showtime; Frontline airs at 10 p.m. on PBS.

AROUND THE WEB

  • The Las Vegas Review-Journal spent Super Bowl Sunday with Jay Rood, sportsbook director for MGM Properties.
  • Derek Fisher out as Knicks coach. The Knicks have lost five straight and are 23-31 overall. They won 17 games last season and the over/under at the outset of 2015-16 was 31.5.
  • Meanwhile: A mess in Sacramento. Sources say George Karl’s firing is imminent and Rajon Rondo says most of the team skipped out on Monday’s shootaround.
  • A bill that would exempt DFS from state gaming laws and install basic consumer protections received passage in the Virginia state Senate on Monday.
  • Bills RB LeSean McCoy reportedly involved in fight with off duty police officers
  • Ugly details emerge in allegations against embattled Cleveland quarterback Johnny Manziel, including that he hit his girlfriend, rupturing her eardrum.
  • Conan O’Brien had a pretty good Cam Newton impression.
  • Drew Magary: Cam fucking blew it.

LOOK WHO’S TALKING

“The record amount wagered—legally and illegally—on Super Bowl 50 offers further proof that sports betting has become America’s new national pastime.” —American Gaming Association President and CEO Geoff Freeman

“I don’t want to pre-judge anything. But information that has come forward has suggested that some of the representations they have made—appear to be false and misleading, designed to lure the small players in.” —New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman on FanDuel and DraftKings

“I could probably crush you.” —51-year-old mom turned DFS pro.

TWEETS OF NOTE

ODDS & ENDS

ODDSMAKER’S TAKE

“We’re going to be paying that all night. People are howling out in the book,” he said. “We basically pushed on the game, and we came out a winner on props and we’ll hold some on the futures. Nothing disastrous.” —MGM Properties sports book director Jay Rood on the Broncos’ win in Super Bowl 50.

‘No complaints’ from sports books after underdog Denver tops Carolina in Super Bowl

The dust is still settling on the biggest sports betting day of the year, and the early returns indicate the underdog Broncos’ 24-10 win over the Panthers yielded a modest win for the sportsbooks.

Carolina was the runaway pick among early bettors, accumulating up to 90 percent of the action through last Wednesday at some books. That was enough to push the point spread as much as two points for some, but late-arriving Broncos support brought the line back down and evened out most books’ positions.

Denver was a consensus five-point favorite at kickoff, while the over/under closed at 43.5 and was never truly threatened.

“Can’t complain,” said Jason Simbal of CG Technology, which operates numerous Las Vegas sports books. “Anything under was good for us so we didn’t really have a sweat.”

The refrain was similar at offshore books.

“No complaints,” said Dave Mason of BetOnline. “(We) got murdered on the money line, but overall a good night for the house.”

According to ESPN’s David Purdum, numerous Vegas shops are reporting record handles. At $119 million in legal bets, more money was wagered on the 2014 Super Bowl than any in history, and many are expecting this year to break that mark when the Nevada Gaming Control Board releases the official numbers later Monday.

AROUND THE WEB

  • Von Miller, Broncos defense rewarded risk-taking prop bettors handsomely.
  • Cam Newton walked out on his press conference after the Panthers’ loss Sunday night, bringing forth a slew of scolding tweets, including a gem from a guy who once spit on an opponent.
  • Marshawn Lynch announces retirement (we think) via tweet in fourth quarter of the Super Bowl.
  • More bad news for DFS broke Friday evening: Citigroup won’t process payments for New York customers and the New York Times makes it sound like MLB is looking for a way to get out of its partnership with DraftKings.
  • Cubs agree to one-year deal with ace Jake Arrieta. Arrieta won the NL Cy Young last year with a 22-6 record and a 1.77 ERA last year and led the Cubs to an NLCS appearance. The Cubs are currently 9-2 favorites to win the World Series at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

LOOK WHO’S TALKING

“Carolina winning but not covering was our best scenari0, but this was the second-best scenario.” —Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill US sports book director on the Broncos’ win in Super Bowl 50.

TWEETS OF NOTE

Wonder what this was all about? Maybe everybody just needed to pay for their share of the buffalo wings all at once.

ODDS & ENDS

  • Pete Rose did a spot for William Hill’s sports betting app.
  • The decline in DFS ad spend, charted.
  • How to pay taxes on fantasy sports winnings.
  • Everything you ever wanted to know about Jason Robins, DraftKings CEO, “stat geek”, elementary chess club founder.

ODDSMAKER’S TAKE

“Overall action was great yesterday. Was the biggest bet game in the company’s history. A great example of how much action was coming in: There was more money on the National Anthem prop than the Clippers-Heat game on national TV.” —Dave Mason, brand manager at BetOnline.

When it comes to the Super Bowl, public betting action carries more weight

Some might argue that the simplification of all betting action to sharps vs. the public creates a false dichotomy. Without even considering the market manipulation of syndicates, sophisticated gamblers are not a homogeneous behemoth, betting in perfect unison—and neither, for that matter, are recreational bettors.

But that doesn’t mean sports books view all incoming money equally, either, says Dave Mason of offshore book BetOnline.

“Absolutely, the sharp money trumps all,” Mason said. “Not all books do it that way, but we respect that sharp money. If we go to 6 and it gets hit by one guy who’s a respected player for four or five figures, then we’re going back down to 5.5. That’s all we need to know.”

Public vs. sharp money has been a trending topic surrounding Super Bowl 50, as a cavalcade of bets on Carolina has pushed the spread up two points in many places. It’s climbed as high as six at some shops before high-stakes bettors brought the consensus back down to 5.5, where it currently sits at most books.

Mason said BetOnline typically wouldn’t react as much as they have over the last two weeks to the bets of occasional gamblers, but the Super Bowl is “a different animal,” both in terms of volume and timing.

As of Thursday afternoon, eighty percent of handle wagered on the point spread was on the Panthers, putting BetOnline, and many other books, in a precarious position.

“If the game started in 10 minutes, it would be the biggest need in the history of the company,” Mason said. “And we’ve still got, what, three more days of action to come in? Seventy-five percent of the action left to come in? That’s really all you need to know.

“In a perfect world, next Monday or Tuesday everybody says, ‘OK, the Super Bowl’s over, let’s bet basketball now,’” Mason said. “But that’s just not the reality. There’s so many guys going into hibernation until next September … whereas during the regular season we had a few weekends where we just got hammered, and the following weekend what happens? They’re betting more. So you’re gonna get it back sooner or later. But the Super Bowl, that’s the grand finale, man. If you don’t get it back, if you get your ass kicked this Sunday—and we could, we very well could—then the processing department is going to be on overdrive on Monday paying everybody out.”

Mason said based on trends seen elsewhere, he’d be surprised if the line at BetOnline climbed higher than 5.5, but he also couldn’t rule it out.

“At six we really think the sharps are going to hit it,” he said. “They’ve hit six elsewhere, so we’ve gathered that intel and we take that into consideration.

“So, I doubt it goes to six with us, but you never know. If it comes to Sunday and the money is still pouring in on the Panthers—our guys usually have in mind where they want that need to be, that risk, that exposure to be and once it hits that number and starts going above that number, then they’ll re-evaluate.”

AROUND THE WEB

LOOK WHO’S TALKING

“We started seeing everyone go to -5.5 yesterday, but we weren’t ready to go. I told our crew to hold the number and let me know when someone wanted a large wager, and sure enough a guy came in a few minutes later and asked us how much we’d take with Denver at +6. We took a larger than normal wager and moved, but we’re still way long on Carolina.” —Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller on Super Bowl betting action.

“Applying the ‘dominant factor’ standard, I do not believe that daily fantasy sports constitute a ‘game of chance’ and therefore, daily fantasy sports games do not constitute a lottery under Rhode Island law. —Rhode Island Attorney General Peter Kilmartin in his formal opinion on DFS.

TWEETS OF NOTE

ODDS & ENDS

  • Peyton Manning’s lawyers reportedly sent private investigators to the home of the key witness in that Al Jazeera documentary.
  • ESPN commentator/troll Danny Kanell’s ongoing insistence that concussions aren’t really a big deal drew some fun responses on Twitter last night, including from Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Brandon McCarthy.
  • Surprising no one, Sheldon Adelson is reportedly asserting editorial control of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, and is killing/re-writing stories involving his plan to get a Las Vegas stadium built for the Raiders using public money.
  • Clinton Portis reportedly paid casino debt with bad checks.
  • Playboy model and JetBet spokesperson Katie May dead at 34.

ODDSMAKER’S TAKE

“This year is really rare in that nobody is betting on the Broncos. For whatever reason, we just don’t seem to see any money coming in on Denver, and floods of money coming in on the Carolina Panthers.” —Matthew Holt, Vice President of Business Development at CG Analytics, with more evidence of Carolina’s popularity.

Prop betting now accounts for 60 percent of Super Bowl handle at Vegas’ biggest book

The Super Bowl has long been the most wagered-on sporting event in America. In Las Vegas alone, nearly $115 million was bet on last year’s game, a total that’s estimated to be a tiny fraction of the overall amount wagered when illegal betting is also factored in.

It could be even higher this year, and increasingly, more of that figure is made up of proposition betting. Accounting for an “insignificant” amount of Las Vegas’ handle as recently as 25 years ago, props have boomed over the last decade or so and now account for more than half of the action at the world’s largest sportsbook on the busiest day of the year.

“Years back it used to be maybe 25 percent,” said Jeff Sherman, assistant manager at the Westgate SuperBook. “Way back before that it was insignificant. It’s gradually risen to get to a point to be over 60 percent of what we write. It just speaks volumes about what the props mean from a business standpoint for the books.”

Assuming that 60 percent figure holds elsewhere, that means nearly $70 million was wagered on Super Bowl props last season. For perspective, consider the total handle in Las Vegas in 2003 was $71.6 million.

Along with Jay Kornegay and Ed Salmons, Sherman said the group now running the Westgate SuperBook began expanding their offerings when the trio was at the Imperial Palace in the early 1990s, but props became a real phenomenon in the last 15 years.

Their popularity cuts across all types of bettors, Sherman said, with the sophisticated value players pouncing early on bookmakers’ mistakes and visiting gamblers typically betting the opposite side when they arrive the weekend of the big game.

This year, the Westgate is offering well over 300 props, with everything from alternate point spreads to the total receiving yards either team’s third-string tight end will gain. How much more could they add?

Probably not many.

“At the point we’re at now, you could make some more,” Sherman said, “but we’re almost at the saturation point with how many we offer.”

PROPS, PROPS, PROPS, PROPS, PROPS

Prop betting was the topic du jour on Wednesday.

AROUND THE WEB

LOOK WHO’S TALKING

“The sports books in Nevada handled $115 million on last year’s game and the record was set two years ago when Seattle overwhelmed Denver. I think this year we’ll challenge that record. Sports betting is more popular than ever by the numbers we’re seeing this year.” —VP of Westgate Las Vegas Jay Kornegay on the action on this year’s Super Bowl

TWEETS OF NOTE

ODDS & ENDS

ODDSMAKER’S TAKE

“My strongest position on this game, is I like the under. We just saw a drop in the totals (Wednesday); a lot of the 45.5s dissipated, now it’s 45-even, even some 44.5s showing up,” Westgate’s Jeff Sherman, talking Super Bowl 50 on Sportsbook Radio.

For Las Vegas sportsbooks, seven-figure bets an annual part of Super Bowl mania

Super Bowl 50 kicks off at Levi’s Stadium in the San Francisco Bay Area on Sunday afternoon, but 500 miles to the southeast, the action around the big game is already picking up.

Since the matchup was made official a little over a week ago, the point spread has bounced from Carolina minus-4 to as high as minus-6 in some places, and some of the biggest bets haven’t been placed yet.

Sometime later this week a bettor will walk into a Las Vegas sportsbook and lay down $1 million on either the Denver Broncos or the Carolina Panthers. Or, more likely, he or she will place phone calls expressing interest in a seven-figure bet, get the go-ahead from a willing bookmaker, and then submit the bet via wire transfer.

It happens practically every year, according to one bookmaker, and at least one interested party has already made an inquiry this year.

“I’ve taken many million-dollar bets here at Wynn,” said Johnny Avello, Director of Race & Sports at Wynn Las Vegas. “As a matter of fact, we took one last year, probably the year before. I’d say in most cases we end up getting one.”

Taking that kind of bet can alter a sportsbook’s position significantly, so a variety of factors have to be considered. Who is the bettor? Does he have a pre-existing relationship with the casino or sportsbook? Is he an established winner? What is the book’s current position?

And perhaps as important as any other: how much time remains before kickoff?

“If somebody wants to make that bet at post time, two minutes before the game starts, then if we’re not in a desirable position we may not take it, because we have no way to continue to try to keep booking to try to get action on the other side to maybe offset some of it,” Avello said. “So we always like that kind of bet to come in at a reasonable time before the game starts. That would be one of the most crucial points before taking the wager.”

Avello said he’s sometimes taken larger amounts on moneyline bets, but a $1 million payout is typically as high as the book would like to go. For props, the limits are typically in the $5,000 range and Avello said special attention is paid to the bettor when determining the maximum bet limit.

“If you’re a sophisticated guy, there’s limits set for those guys,” Avello said. “And believe me, the sophisticated bettors key more on props than they do on the game. They may not have one bet on the game itself or the total or the moneyline, but they will concentrate on the props. Because if (a sports book) is putting up 250 props, you’re probably making a few mistakes, and that’s what they’re looking for—your errors.”

Late last week Avello said the big bets hadn’t started rolling in quite yet, but overall handle was “right where it should be,” with about 80 percent of overall tickets and money on the Carolina side.

“We’ve taken plenty of five-figure (bets), but not really a lot of large six-figures, because it’s so early,” Avello said Thursday. “The line’s kind of still moving around, it’s not settled; and the guests that are going to be here to watch the game and the guys who might make those kinds of wagers they’re a week away from coming in.

“Usually a big bet doesn’t come in this early, it’s more toward the latter part of the week, closer to game time.”

Public coming out strong in support of favorites in NFC, AFC championship games

For the second straight weekend, it looks like Las Vegas sports books will be pulling for the underdogs, as the vast majority of support so far is coming in on the side of the favorites in the NFC and AFC championship games.

The action was similar last weekend, and no underdogs came through, dealing Vegas a rough weekend.

“So far it’s been pretty heavy on both favorites,” said Jeff Sherman, assistant manager of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. “It’s caused us to go from 3-flat to 3 minus 120 on the favorites, so pretty much, the position on the books is we’re going to need at least one ‘dog to cover to do ok and both ‘dogs to cover or win to have a good day. If both favorites end up covering it’ll be a poor weekend last weekend was with all the favorites.”

In the AFC, New England is favored by 3 at Denver, while Carolina is giving 3 against visiting Arizona. The AFC line has bounced around after opening at Patriots -2.5 on Sunday. It went as high as -3.5 before settling back at 3 for now.

Sherman said the initial line was based in part on the betting patterns seen when New England played at Denver on Nov. 29. The Broncos won that game, 30-24.

“The first time they played this year, it was a Sunday night game and there was late action by the wise guys who took (Denver +3), and we closed at less than 3 at that point.” Sherman said. “And that was with (backup quarterback Brock) Osweiler, and now you’ve got (Peyton) Manning as healthy as he’s been all year, so we thought it was going to be similar to that. We thought the wise guys might be looking to take the ‘dog at 3 or higher again, but at this point they haven’t jumped in, and it’s been just public supporting the road favorite.”

The public appears to be down on Denver in general. The SuperBook has also released prices for each potential Super Bowl matchup with New England favored by 1 against either team from the NFC, while Denver is a 3-point underdog against both.

“We’re getting a little bit of play on those,” Sherman said. “We’re seeing a little Panthers and Cardinals -3 money against Denver there.”

In the NFC title game, Sherman said the public is behind Carolina, but not quite as strongly as it has backed New England. The spread opened at Panthers -3 on Sunday and has remained there so far.

Grading the picks: NFL Divisional Round and final season results

Since Week 4 of the NFL season we’ve gathered the recommended fantasy plays from various analysts across the industry. In our final update of the season, we present the results for each fantasy tout for both the Divisional Round of the playoffs and the cumulative totals.

Disclaimer: These results are not scientific, and are not intended to be taken as such. Our motive is to bring some small measure of accountability and record-keeping to a subsector of the daily fantasy industry that has boomed in the last two years.

A note on our methodology: Player prices are divided by 1,000 and then compared against the points earned. For example, a player with a salary of $5,000 would be converted to 5. If that player scored 10 points, his fantasy-points-per-dollar rating would be 2.0; if he scored 15 points, his rating would be 3.0, etc.

Each analyst’s picks from last week can be viewed here. For the purpose of our calculations, players who were inactive were removed.

Cumulative results

FreerollTop Prize
None currently listed
FreerollTop Prize
MLB Regular Salary Cap, Pro Pick'em & Live Snake Draft200 FFP (Fantasy Feud Reward Points)

Wild Card results

FANDUEL   
AnalystOutletNumber of picksFantasy points per dollar
Brad PinkertonSporting News44.78n
Justin BaileyRotoWorld82.84
DailyFantasyNerd optimizer82.57
RotoWire optimizer72.48
Renee MillerRotoWorld102.32
Jeff MansFantasy Alarm182.26
RotoGrinders optimizer82.2n
Thomas EmerickSporting News81.75
OperatorTotal Entry Fees In ($)Total Prizes Out ($)Effective Rake %
DraftKings15,548,74614,197,58710.4
DraftPot95,16689,6465.8
FanDuel*24,809,31822,584,2009.6
FantasyFeud86,36994,822-9.8n
FantasyDraft125,206140,932-12.6
PickChamps583885-51.8
StarsDraft1,8372,235-21.6
Yahoo504,691477,5005.4

Grading the picks: The most-recommended DFS plays, NFL Wild Card edition

Here’s our weekly look at the most-recommended DFS plays from some of the industry’s most well-known analysts.

It’s a stripped-down version for the playoffs with just a four-game slate some of the touts we typically monitor laying out for the playoffs. We’ll keep rounding up the picks through the divisional round before calling it a season ourselves. If you’d like to see how the analysts fare last week, as well as cumulative results for the full season, check here.

Our usual disclaimer: DailyFantasyTalk will not be supplying DFS picks nor will we offer commentary on the picks of others. Each week we will gather the recommendations, post them here and link back to the original source so that interested readers can investigate the reasoning if they’re so inclined.

Here are this week’s picks. Check back next week to see how each analyst scored.

Consensus

Quarterback

  • Aaron Rodgers—FanDuel 8,100; DraftKings 6,400
  • AJ McCarron—FanDuel, 6,400; DraftKings 5,200

Running back

  • Eddie Lacy—FanDuel 6,000; DraftKings 4,500
  • Fitzgerald Toussaint—FanDuel 5,700; DraftKings 3,900
  • Marshawn Lynch—FanDuel 7,800; DraftKings 6,500

Wide receiver

  • Antonio Brown—FanDuel 9,500; DraftKings 9,600
  • AJ Green—FanDuel 8,300; DraftKings 7,500
  • James Jones—FanDuel 5,700; DraftKings 4,100
  • DeSean Jackson—FanDuel 7,000; DraftKings 4,500
  • Jeremy Maclin—FanDuel 7,200; DraftKings 6,400

Tight end

  • Jordan Reed—FanDuel 7,400; DraftKings 6,300

Defense

  • Chiefs—FanDuel 5,100; DraftKings 4,000

* * *

Matthew Berry, ESPN

Love/Hate

  • Kirk Cousins—DK 5,900
  • Aaron Rodgers—DK 6,400
  • AJ McCarron—DK 5,200
  • Jeremy Hill—DK 5,000
  • Eddie Lacy—DK 4,500
  • Pierre Thomas—DK 3,400
  • Alfred Blue—DK 4,200
  • Fitzgerald Toussaint—DK 3,900
  • AJ Green—DK 7,500
  • DeAndre Hopkins—DK 8,400
  • Marvin Jones—DK 3,700
  • James Jones—DK 4,100
  • Jordan Reed—DK 6,300
  • Heath Miller—DK 3,300
  • Bengals—DK 3,200
  • Chiefs—DK 4,000
  • Redskins—DK 3,300

K.C. Joyner, ESPN

Value Plays

  • Kirk Cousins—DK 5,900
  • Alex Smith—DK 5,300
  • Christine Michael—DK 4,400
  • Alfred Morris—DK 3,700
  • DeSean Jackson—DK 4,500
  • James Jones—DK 4,100
  • Richard Rodgers—DK 4,100
  • Heath Miller—DK 3,300
  • Steelers—DK 3,700
  • Bengals—DK 3,200

Jerry Donabedian, RotoWire

DK Value Plays

  • Aaron Rodgers—DK 6,400
  • Marshawn Lynch—DK 6,500
  • Fitzgerald Toussaint—DK 3,900
  • AJ Green—DK 7,500
  • James Jones—DK 4,100
  • Jordan Reed—DK 6,400
  • Chiefs—DK 4,000

RotoWire optimizer—FanDuel

  • Ben Roethlisberger—FD 8,400
  • Alfred Morris—FD 5,500
  • Spencer Ware—FD 5,400
  • Antonio Brown—FD 9,500
  • Jeremy Maclin—FD 7,200
  • DeSean Jackson—FD 7,000
  • Jordan Reed—FD 7,400
  • Texans—FD 4,600

RotoWire optimizer—DraftKings

  • Ben Roethlisberger—DK 7,200
  • Fitzgerald Toussaint—DK 3,900
  • Alfred Morris—DK 3,700
  • Antonio Brown—DK 9,600
  • AJ Green—DK 7,500
  • DeSean Jackson—DK 4,500
  • Jordan Reed—DK 6,300
  • Travis Kelce—DK 4,500
  • Packers—DK 2,800

RotoGrinders optimizer—FanDuel

  • AJ McCarron—FD 6,400
  • Marshawn Lynch—FD 7,800
  • Fitzgerald Toussaint—FD 5,700
  • DeAndre Hopkins—FD 8,800
  • Doug Baldwin—FD 7,300
  • Jeremy Maclin—FD 7,200
  • Jordan Reed—FD 7,400
  • Texans—FD 4,600

Thomas Emerick, Sporting News

FanDuel Cash Game Lineup

  • AJ McCarron—FD 6,400
  • Marshawn Lynch—FD 7,800
  • Jerick McKinnon—FD 5,500
  • Antonio Brown—FD 9,500
  • Jeremy Maclin—FD 7,200
  • Randall Cobb—FD 6,500
  • Jordan Reed—FD 7,400
  • Seahawks—FD 5,100

Jonathan Bales, DraftKings Playbook

  • Kirk Cousins—DK 5,900
  • Aaron Rodgers—DK 6,400
  • DeSean Jackson—DK 4,500
  • DeAndre Hopkins—DK 8,400
  • AJ Green—DK 7,500

Benny Ricciardi, DraftKings Playbook

  • Jordan Reed—DK 6,300
  • Tyler Eifert—DK 5,000
  • Seahawks—DK 4,100
  • Chiefs—DK 4,000

Renee Miller, RotoWorld

FanDuel Bargain Bin

  • AJ McCarron—FD 6,400
  • Alfred Blue—FD 5,700
  • Eddie Lacy—FD 6,000
  • Tyler Lockett—FD 6,200
  • Jermaine Kearse—FD 6,000
  • James Jones—FD 5,700
  • Richard Rodgers—FD 5,200
  • Redskins—FD 4,300

DailyFantasyNerd optimizer—DraftKings

  • Ben Roethlisberger—DK 7,200
  • Eddie Lacy—DK 4,500
  • Giovani Bernard—DK 4,000
  • Jeremy Maclin—DK 6,400
  • DeAndre Hopkins—DK 8,400
  • Marvin Jones—DK 3,700
  • Heath Miller—DK 3,300
  • Antonio Brown—DK 9,600
  • Packers—DK 2,800

DailyFantasyNerd optimizer—FanDuel

  • AJ McCarron—FD 6,400
  • Eddie Lacy—FD 6,000
  • Jeremy Hill—FD 6,700
  • Jeremy Maclin—FD 7,200
  • Antonio Brown—FD 9,500
  • DeAndre Hopkins—FD 8,800
  • Heath Miller—FD 5,600
  • Chiefs—FD 5,100

numberFire optimizer—FanDuel

  • Aaron Rodgers—FD 8,100
  • Eddie Lacy—FD 6,000
  • Spencer Ware—FD 5,400
  • James Jones—FD 5,700
  • Antonio Brown—FD 9,500
  • AJ Green—FD 8,300
  • Jordan Reed—FD 7,400
  • Chiefs—FD 5,100

numberFire optimizer—DraftKings

  • Aaron Rodgers—DK 6,400
  • Giovani Bernard—DK 4,000
  • Spencer Ware—DK 4,000
  • DeSean Jackson—DK 4,500
  • Nate Washington—DK 3,600
  • Antonio Brown—DK 9,600
  • AJ Green—DK 7,500
  • Jordan Reed—DK 6,300
  • Chiefs—DK 4,000

Undisputed champ? Latest data shows DraftKings building firm lead over FanDuel

At the end of the NFL regular season, it appears DraftKings has overtaken FanDuel as the top operator in daily fantasy sports.

Since launching in 2012, DraftKings’ ascent has been swift, but 2015 represented new levels of acceleration—and turbulence. FanDuel ended 2014 as the unquestioned leader in DFS, but signs of an eroding leadership position surfaced in the summer, when DraftKings’ partnership with Major League Baseball and the surging popularity of its golf contests gave the site considerable momentum.

Comprehensive numbers are unavailable, making definitive conclusions difficult, if not impossible, to reach. Nonetheless, the most recent data from SuperLobby.com paint a pretty clear picture.

Last weekend, the final Sunday of the NFL regular season, DraftKings brought in more entry fees from its guaranteed contests alone than FanDuel did from GPPs and cash games combined. It was the second consecutive week of similar results and despite its incompleteness, it’s perhaps the most definite proof to this point that DraftKings is the affirmed industry leader.

SuperLobby_Week17NFL

Daily NFL contests will continue into the playoffs on both sites in a somewhat stripped-down fashion. Prize pools have declined at most sites throughout the season as the industry became engulfed in turmoil and turned its attention (and expenses) away from marketing and toward legal defenses on numerous fronts across the country.

DraftKings’ Millionaire Maker, which began the season with a $10 million pot and $3 million total going to the top two placers, will run this weekend with a $3.5 million pool and a $1 million jackpot.

FanDuel has opted for smaller pools with a more progressive payout structure. Its largest NFL contest includes a $1.25 million pool with less than 10 percent ($120,000) going to first place.

Beyond the NFL, both sites are performing well in NBA contests. In the most recent figures from SuperLobby, FanDuel brought in $20.35 million in NBA entry fees (GPPs and cash games) between Dec. 16-22, while DraftKings grossed $13.64 million from GPPs. FanDuel had a net revenue of a little more than $2 million, while DraftKings’ was slightly less than $1.5 million.

SuperLobby_NBADec16

Golf is also returning with its first tournament of 2016 this weekend. As of one hour before lineup lock, DraftKings appeared well on its way to filling or avoiding overlay in its guaranteed contests, providing a not-insignificant edge over FanDuel in immediate revenue.

FanDuel has shied away from DFS golf, citing legal concerns. As recently as September, company founder and CEO Nigel Eccel said he might reconsider, but given scrutiny now applied to the industry’s leading sites, that seems doubtful.

Grading the DFS picks: NFL Week 16 and cumulative results

Since Week 4 of the NFL season we’ve gathered the recommended fantasy plays from various analysts across the industry. Below we present the results for each fantasy tout for both Week 16 and the cumulative totals so far.

Disclaimer: These results are not scientific, and are not intended to be taken as such. Our motive is to bring some small measure of accountability and record-keeping to a subsector of the daily fantasy industry that has boomed in the last two years.

A note on our methodology: Player prices are divided by 1,000 and then compared against the points earned. For example, a player with a salary of $5,000 would be converted to 5. If that player scored 10 points, his fantasy-points-per-dollar rating would be 2.0; if he scored 15 points, his rating would be 3.0, etc.

Each analyst’s picks from last week can be viewed here. For the purpose of our calculations, players who were inactive were removed.

If there’s another analyst or optimizer you’d like to see tracked, let us know on the forum.

Week 16 results

DRAFTKINGS   
AnalystOutletNumber of picksFantasy points per dollar
KC JoynerESPN95.26
DailyFantasyNerd optimizer93.82
Ryan NoonanDraftKings Playbook63.76
RotoWire optimizer83.61
Matthew BerryESPN253.55
Jerry DonabedianRotoWire93.37
Jeff MansFantasy Alarm183.09
Jonathan BalesDraftKings Playbook82.67
Benny RicciardiDraftKings Playbook72.53
FANDUEL   
AnalystOutletNumber of picksFantasy points per dollar
Justin BaileyRotoWorld82.23
RotoGrinders optimizer82.69
Thomas EmerickSporting News82.49
DailyFantasyNerd optimizer82.29
RotoWire optimizer82.28
Jeff MansFantasy Alarm182.14
Renee MillerRotoWorld61.95

Cumulative results (Weeks 4-16)

FreerollTop Prize
None currently listed
FreerollTop Prize
MLB Regular Salary Cap, Pro Pick'em & Live Snake Draft200 FFP (Fantasy Feud Reward Points)