FanDuel alters MLB scoring system; roster configuration remains unchanged

A week after rival DraftKings announced significant changes to its baseball contests, FanDuel has tweaked its scoring system.

The biggest difference is that batters will no longer be penalized with negative points for outs; otherwise, the points rewarded have increased, but ratios remain the same. For example, last season a single was worth one point, a double worth two, etc. This season, a single is worth three points and a double worth six, and so on.

See below for the complete scoring chart.

DraftKings altered its scoring and roster composition rules last week, no longer deducting for caught stealing, subbing a utility hitter for an outfield slot, and dropping the maximum number of players from a single team from six to five.

FanDuel’s roster rules remain unchanged—rosters must be composed of players from three different teams with no more than four players from a single team—and a FanDuel representative said no other changes are forthcoming.

Last summer, FanDuel lost ground to DraftKings, which is partnered with Major League Baseball,  in the ongoing battle for market share, partly due to the popularity of DraftKings’ baseball vertical. Nonetheless, FanDuel remains the industry leader, according to a recently published study, and DraftKings’ relationship with MLB is reportedly tenuous.

OperatorTotal Entry Fees In ($)Total Prizes Out ($)Effective Rake %
DraftKings15,548,74613,934,50010.39
DraftPot102,595104,3265.8
FanDuel*25,529,83122,946,47310.12
FantasyFeud81,15390,978-12.1n
FantasyDraft144,874158,991-12.6
PickChamps446699-56.7
StarsDraft8311,001-21.6
Yahoo493,327463,0006.2

Note: DraftKings also has categories for Hits Against, BB against, Hit Batsmen, Complete Game, Complete Game Shutout, and No Hitter. 

Betting roundup: DraftKings tweaks MLB rules

With Opening Day just a month away, DraftKings unveiled changes to its Major League Baseball contest rules Thursday, tightening the limitations on “stacking” and adding a utility position, among others.

Rosters will still be made up of 10 players, including two pitchers and eight hitters, but one roster spot has been changed from a dedicated outfield position to a utility hitter, which can be chosen from any position.

Users will also be limited to five hitters from a single MLB team, one less than previous restrictions, and rosters must include players from two different MLB games. The prior rule stipulated that rosters must include players from three separate MLB teams. The caught-stealing point deduction has also been eliminated.

DraftKings hasn’t commented since the rules were modified Thursday morning, but the changes were a response to player requests, according to a site representative.

Under the new rules, DraftKings MLB contests will more closely resemble those at industry co-leader FanDuel in some ways, but significant differences remain.

Stacking: DraftKings will allow five hitters from a single team; The FanDuel limit is four players (including a pitcher) from a single team.

Roster construction: DraftKings now requires players from two separate MLB games, while FanDuel requires players from three different MLB teams. FanDuel maintains a roster with one starting pitcher slot and eight traditional positions, while DraftKings has two pitcher spots, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, UT.

The sites also diverge quite a bit in scoring.

Scoring at DraftKings:

  • Hitters will accumulate points as follows:
    • Single = +3 PTs
    • Double = +5 PTs
    • Triple = +8 PTs
    • Home Run = +10 PTs
    • Run Batted In = +2 PTs
    • Run = +2 PTs
    • Base on Balls = +2 PTs
    • Hit By Pitch = +2 PTs
    • Stolen Base = +5 PTs
  • Pitchers will accumulate points as follows:
    • Inning Pitched = +2.25 PTs
    • Strike Out = +2 PTs
    • Win = +4 PTs
    • Earned Run Allowed = -2 PTs
    • Hit Against = -0.6 PTs
    • Base on Balls Against = -0.6 PTs
    • Hit Batsman = -0.6 PTs
    • Complete Game = +2.5 PTs
    • Complete Game Shut Out = +2.5 PTs
    • No Hitter = +5 PTs

Scoring at FanDuel:

Hitters Pitchers
1B = 1pt W = 4pts
2B = 2pts ER = -1pt
3B = 3pts SO = 1pt
HR = 4pts IP = 1pt*
RBI = 1pt
R = 1pt
BB = 1pt
SB = 2pts
HBP = 1pt
Out (calculated as at bats – hits) = -.25pt

* * *

AROUND THE WEB

LOOK WHO’S TALKING

“The handle for UFC last year was nearly equal to boxing, which is saying something because we had a really big handle on the Mayweather fight.” —MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood, who said this weekend’s UFC event might attract $5 million in handle at MGM’s books.

TWEETS OF NOTE

ODDS & ENDS

MLB player props: Giancarlo Stanton’s home run total already nudged up at Westgate

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook hung its MLB player props on Sunday, and an unexpected bet on the over from a respected bettor quickly prompted the book to adjust its number on predicted home run king Giancarlo Stanton.

Stanton, who hit 27 home runs in 74 games last year before a hand injury ended his season, is the consensus favorite to lead the majors in homers. The Miami slugger is listed at 7/1 at both BetOnline and 5Dimes, with no other player better than 12/1.

At Westgate, Stanton and Chris Davis both opened at 36.5, but Stanton’s over/under is now 37.

“One of the guys we respect bet the over on him, which for the most part you wouldn’t expect over bets from wise guys on stuff like that, so now we’re at 37 on him,” said Ed Salmons, assistant manager of the SuperBook.

If Stanton tops that number it would be a career high. Injuries have hampered the Miami slugger throughout his career, preventing bigger stats. He hit 37 home runs in just 123 games in 2012 and had 37 again in 2014 before getting shelved in September after getting hit in the face with a pitch. In between, he played only 116 games and had 24 homers in 2013.

“He’s always one of the toughest guys to pin down,” Salmons said. “Miami’s moving the fences in some this year, and that can only help. Not that it matters a ton for him, because when he hits his home runs, they’re usually way over the fence. It’s always, can he stay healthy?”

Westgate-HRs
Home run totals
Westgate-Pitching
Pitching win totals
Westgate-hits
Individual mosts, hits

Click to view larger

AROUND THE WEB

  • The Golden State Warriors are now favored to break the Bulls record for wins in a season, and with every win, the odds tilt more in their favor.
  • A deeper look at the recently passed law in Pennsylvania that calls for the state’s gaming commission to produce a report evaluating the potential of DFS as a gambling product.

LOOK WHO’S TALKING

“In addition to the quarterback thing, it’s a public perception thing, as well, coming into these touristy times with the (NCAA) tournament about to start. A team like the Broncos, people tend to want to bet the over because they just won the Super Bowl, but when you’re making your numbers you’re getting nines and nine-and-a-halfs.”—CG Technology’s Jason Simbal on the difficulty of hanging a season win total on Denver for 2016. The Broncos opened at 9.5.

TWEETS OF NOTE

ODDS & ENDS

MLB season totals popularity has SuperBook ‘on the verge’ of raising betting limits

Betting on MLB season win totals has grown so popular, the largest sports book in Las Vegas is strongly considering raising the limit on maximum bets.

“It’s taken on a life of its own,” said Ed Salmons, assistant manager of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. “In baseball, as far as wins and player props and division bets, it’s really gotten popular. In the NFL we’re taking bigger limits than the baseball stuff, but the baseball stuff is on the verge of having bigger limits because we’re writing so much public money right now.”

The SuperBook, which hung its MLB season win totals, division odds and individual player props on Sunday, currently limits baseball bets to $1,000, with an extension granted to house players, Salmons said. But the booming popularity of these bets—and where they’re coming from—has Westgate considering a change.

“There was a time where maybe our money would be 75 percent wise guys versus 25 percent general public,” Salmons said.

Westgate-MLB-wins
Click to view larger

Now, that ratio is reversed.

“The handle is through the roof as far as season wins,” Salmons said. “The baseball season wins are just really popular with the general public. And anything you can do with more general public,
it’s better for the house.”

Bettors at the Westgate are coming out strong in support of Kansas City, the defending World Series champs. Despite coming off back-to-back appearances in the Fall Classic, many projections systems—and oddsmakers—are cool on the Royals this year. Atlantis hung the Royals at 87 wins, the Golden Nugget at 84, and Westgate opened them at 83.5, prompting a flurry of action.

“Right now, they love the Royals,” Salmon said.

Betting has been significantly slower on the Cubs, who attracted more two-way action than any other team at Westgate last season, when they were pegged for about 83 wins in the preseason. Following a trip to the NLCS, their number is at 93.5 right now, and Salmons said betting on the team has been minimal on either side.

AROUND THE WEB

DFS LEGISLATION

  • A look at the Virginia bill headed for the governor’s desk; it would be the country’s first DFS regulatory bill signed into law.
  • Regulatory bill passes out of Senate committee in Tennessee.
  • FanDuel and DraftKings are expected to show support for a bill in Illinois at the state Capitol today.
  • Bill in Indiana gets tweaked before passing House committee. Changes include levying a $75,000 licensing fee and $20,000 annual regulatory fee.
  • The New York Assembly looks like it could be moving forward with a bill soon, and it includes hefty fees and taxes for operators.

LOOK WHO’S TALKING

“They basically allow you to do it, the cops. But you can get locked up and put under investigation for having too many books of stamps or getting found in possession of tickets or anything like a master sheet to record bets, which they consider gambling paraphernalia.”—a 31-year-old ex-convict who goes by the pseudonym “Zach” in this look into what it’s like to run a sports book in prison.

TWEETS OF NOTE

ODDS & ENDS

Golden Nugget hangs MLB totals, not feeling ‘all the love’ on preseason darling Giants

Bettors bullish on the San Francisco Giants this season may have found a friend in Las Vegas’ Golden Nugget sports book this week. Veteran oddsmakers Tony Miller and Aaron Kessler hung their 2016 MLB totals on Tuesday with some notable differences from last week’s totals put up by the Atlantis in Reno.

Two that immediately stand out: The Golden Nugget has the Chicago Cubs pegged at 94 wins, four more than any other team. Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants—one of the National League favorites in the futures markets and the highest total on Atlantis’ slate—isn’t even the leader in their own division.

The Giants, World Series champs in 2010, 2012 and 2014, are marked for 86 wins, four behind last year’s NL West champion Dodgers.

“We definitely hung them low,” Kessler said. “My personal take on San Fran is that they just don’t have the sticks. Their rotation is alright. They’ve got Bumgarner, who is an absolute stud. Cueto and Samardzija should be pretty solid. It’ll be very interesting to see what Cueto does in his first season in a real pitcher’s park; he had half a season in Kansas City. I mean, Cueto’s stats are going to look great, I think. Samardzija was knocked around last year, but he had a really bad outfield defense behind him, and San Fran’s got a very good outfield defense, so it should help him as a fly-ball pitcher.

“But all the same, you look at the team, and their top bats after Buster Posey are Brandon Belt and Matt Duffy and there’s cause for concern.”

The Golden Nugget isn’t completely on an island in that concern. Both the PECOTA projections, also released Tuesday, and Fangraphs’ projected standings have the Dodgers as the team to beat in the West.

Also in common with the projection systems, the Golden Nugget has the defending World Series champ Kansas City Royals finishing behind the Indians in the AL Central. Kessler said the Royals produced the book’s biggest challenge in creating the totals.

“No question, (it was) Kansas City,” he said. “We’ve got them at 84. And it’s a team that we know the public is going to be on them, they just won the World Series and they’re a team that’s been in October, highly visible the last couple of seasons. They don’t play in the toughest division, but a lot of the projection numbers we use have the Royals very low, so we know a lot of the wise guys are going to be low on them. So with the Royals, it’s just a case of hang the number as high as you possibly can to get a little action from the tourist and hope you don’t get beat too bad by the wise guys.”

TeamAtlantisGolden NuggetWestgate SuperBook
AL EAST
Toronto878686.5
Boston85.587.587.5
New York858586.5
Baltimore80.57778.5
Tampa Bay7881.580
AL CENTRAL
Kansas City878483.5
Detroit858181.5
Cleveland848585.5
Chicago80.58180
Minnesota77.57979
AL WEST
Texas8680.583.5
Houston85.587.588
Seattle838383
Los Angeles82.58181.5
Oakland75.575.575.5
NL EAST
New York8889
Washington8788
Miami80.579.5
Philadelphia66.565.5
Atlanta6567
NL CENTRAL
Chicago8994
St. Louis87.585
Pittsburgh8786
Milwaukee71.571
Cincinnati7172
NL WEST
San Francisco9086
Los Angeles8790
Arizona84.582
San Diego7475
Colorado68.572

AROUND THE WEB

  • There won’t be a decision today (and likely not for a couple of months or more), but the immediate future of sports betting in America hangs in the balance of today’s 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals en banc hearing. ESPN’s David Purdum has a preview of the hourlong hearing, which begins at 11 a.m. ET.
  • The NBA trade deadline is Thursday, and the dealing has begun. No blockbusters yet, but Detroit dealing Brandon Jennings and Ersan Ilyasova to Orlando for Tobias Harris is certainly noteworthy. You can track trades here, and geek out on rumors here.
  • Five weirdest PECOTA projections for MLB in 2016.

LOOK WHO’S TALKING

“New Jersey’s chances are excellent and better than they have ever been previously.” —Gaming attorney Daniel Wallach with his take on today’s hearing.

“We’re taking a different approach. We’re creating an environment where policymakers are inclined to ask the questions that we would like to see them ask about the issue.”—Geoff Freeman, the chief executive of the American Gaming Association, on the strategy to get sports betting legalized.

TWEETS OF NOTE

ODDS & ENDS

ODDSMAKER’S TAKE
“I’m sure that people are going to call me out on this, but I’m a pretty diehard Cubs fan. A lot of people know that. I’ve been in tune with the team, and they’re great up and down the lineup, pitching’s a little bit of a question after 2 and 3, but they’re very public, and we don’t mind taking a couple of pops on the under if the number is too high, because we know we’re going to get money on the over.” —Oddsmaker Aaron Kessler on how the Golden Nugget settled on 94 for the Cubs’ season win total.

Deshaun Watson, Christian McCaffrey the favorites among 2016 Heisman contenders

Earlier this week, William Hill US hung the first odds on the 2016 Heisman Trophy winner, and as Nick Bogdanovich said, the favorites were obvious.

“There’s obviously a lot of guess work,” said Bogdanovich, director of trading at William Hill US and a 30-year industry veteran. “But it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that Deshaun Watson and (Christian) McCaffrey are coming back, and those two had to be at the top of the list.”

The Clemson quarterback and Stanford’s all-purpose running back/kick returner finished third and second, respectively, to 2015 winner Derrick Henry, far ahead of the rest of the field. Both Watson and McCaffery also closed their 2015 seasons in style, with Watson throwing for more than 400 yards against Alabama in the National Championship game and McCaffrey breaking a Rose Bowl record with 368 all-purpose yards.

Watson is the current favorite at 11/2, followed closely by McCaffrey at 6/1. They’re followed by a quartet of nearly-as-obvious candidates at 10/1: Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield, LSU running back Leonard Fournette, Florida State running back Dalvin Cook, and Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly.

Further down the list, bettors can find some interesting names. Bo Scarbrough, for example, is listed at 60/1. The 6-foot-2, 240-pounder carried just 18 times last season, but is one of the front runners to take over Henry’s featured spot in the Alabama backfield. Also competing for carries is Damien Harris, who’s listed at 30/1.

“You obviously want to try to get some from Alabama in there,” Bogdanovich said, “just because they’re the premiere program going right now. People gravitate toward Alabama, and anything SEC is almost like the NFL JV.”

Full list of odds here.

ATLANTIS SPORTS BOOK RELEASES MLB SEASON WIN TOTALS

The sports book at Reno’s Atlantis Resort and Casino released the industry’s first MLB season win totals on Thursday, with San Francisco (90) tops in the National League and Toronto and Kansas City pegged as favorites in the American League.

Here’s the breakdown of each division based win totals.

AL East

Toronto 87

Boston 85.5

New York 85

Baltimore 80.5

Tampa Bay 78

AL Central

Kansas City 87

Detroit 85

Cleveland 84

Chicago 80.5

Minnesota 77.5

AL West

Texas 86

Houston 85.5

Seattle 83

Los Angeles 82.5

Oakland 75.5

NL East

New York 88

Washington 87

Miami 80.5

Philadelphia 66.5

Atlanta 65

NL Central

Chicago 89

St. Louis 87.5

Pittsburgh 87

Milwaukee 71.5

Cincinnati 71

AL West

San Francisco 90

Los Angeles 87

Arizona 84.5

San Diego 74

Colorado 68.5

AROUND THE WEB

TWEETS OF NOTE

ODDS & ENDS

ODDSMAKER’S TAKE

“The action has been brisk on next year’s Super Bowl. It’s so wide open, though.”—William Hill US director of trading Nick Bogdanovich on sports books’ quick start on 2016 after a strong NFL season.  

Long-suffering Cubs the consensus favorite in preseason MLB futures markets

The Chicago Cubs, title-less in more than 100 years, are the favorites to win the 2016 World Series, and their odds are shrinking.

In its most recent MLB futures update, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has the Cubs listed at 4-to-1 to win the World Series and 2-to-1 to win the National League pennant. The Dodgers, Mets and Nationals are next at 10-to-1 for the World Series and 5-to-1 to win the NLCS, while defending champion Kansas City is listed at 16-to-1 odds to repeat.

In their first season with Joe Maddon at the helm, the Cubs won 97 games last year and reached the playoffs for the first since 2008. They knocked off Pittsburgh, 1-0, behind a stellar outing from Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta in the Wild Card game and trumped St. Louis in four games in the best-of-five NLDS, before getting swept by the Mets in the NLCS.

They opened at the SuperBook at 10-to-1 for the 2016 season, but have climbed steadily since, notably adding Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward to an offense that ranked 15th out of 30 teams in terms of runs scored.

Offshore, the odds vary. 5Dimes has the Cubs and Giants as co-favorites at +800, followed by the Mets (+850), Red Sox (+1050) and Blue Jays (+1300). Pinnacle has the Cubs at 9.16, followed by the Giants (10.18), Blue Jays (13.03) and Mets (13.23).

For props, Giancarlo Stanton is the 7-to-1 favorite to be the MLB Home Run King at both 5Dimes and the SuperBook. The 26-year-old Miami slugger had 27 home runs in 74 games before a broken hand forced him to miss the second half of the season.

Last year’s home run leader Chris Davis is getting 15-to-1 odds at the SuperBook and 13-to-1 at 5Dimes.

AROUND THE WEB

  • The worst bad beats of the NFL season.
  • The blockbuster marketing agreement between DraftKings and ESPN has ended. DraftKings is said to have asked out of the deal, which reportedly had them on the hook for more than $200 million in advertising per year and gave them exclusive rights among DFS operators to ESPN air time for the next two years.
  • Without explanation, Fox devalued its DraftKings investment by about 60 percent in a Monday filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Johnny Manziel reportedly showed up drunk for practice, and the Browns allegedly lied about it, spreading the story that he had a concussion.
  • Georgia lawmaker proposes industry-friendly DFS legislation.
  • Pennsylvania committee passes resolution calling for end to sports betting prohibition.
  • Why the NBA loves and fears Steph Curry, the embodiment of basketball’s analytics revolution

TWEETS OF NOTE

ODDS & ENDS

Support from pro leagues, ‘reasonable’ legislation positive signs for daily fantasy

After a run of two-plus weeks of seemingly nothing but bad news, subtle shifts toward the positive can be seen for daily fantasy sports, even as new bills with an eye toward regulation continue to surface.

The Wall Street Journal reported that an Illinois lawmaker is introducing legislation Tuesday, while a state representative in Minnesota announced similar intentions. That these developments are viewed as encouraging signs is evidence of how much has changed for an industry that until recently was dogmatic in its assertion that it could police itself.

According to their authors, the prospective bills in Minnesota and Illinois would create a regulatory framework for daily fantasy sports operators, but importantly, leave them free to do business in both states. That’s especially significant as the business model’s legality is under investigation in various states and at the federal level.

Inquiries by the FBI, Department of Justice, federal grand juries and state Attorneys General are ongoing and the potential conclusions are ominous. But there are indicators that the future isn’t as bleak as it has seemed at times over the past month.

The tide seemingly began to turn when NBA commissioner Adam Silver said his league would not withdraw from its partnership with FanDuel or waver in its support of daily fantasy sports.

“Given the recent developments over the past few weeks, the importance of these public statements in support of the daily fantasy sports industry cannot be overstated,” said attorney Justin Fielkow. “When leaders, particularly those as forward-thinking and reflective as Commissioner Silver, speak, people tend to listen.”

Since then MLB commissioner Rob Manfred, Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones and New England Patriots team president Jonathan Kraft have defended their investments in DraftKings.

Some of the timing is surely coincidental. Bills now seen as relatively favorable to the daily fantasy industry were not drafted based on the comments of investors. Nonetheless, the support from the NBA, MLB and daily fantasy’s other well-connected partners could prove critical for the industry’s long-term success.

Industry analysts have long speculated that daily fantasy’s relationships with powerful investors and the accompanying lobbying power would insulate DFS from a Black Friday-style shutdown or overly onerous regulation. It looks like that theory will be tested; significantly, US Attorney Preet Bharara, who helmed the investigation that led to online poker’s downfall in 2011, is now looking into DFS.

Serious legal battles remain on the horizon. The possibility that daily fantasy sports violated a federal law by operating in risky states could have dramatic and far-reaching implications, and if investigations find evidence of so-called insider trading—or worse—all bets are off. Literally.

But for the moment, at the state level, more lawmakers seem to be taking an approach akin to that shown in Illinois—one which a DraftKings spokesperson called “a reasonable and measured step toward oversight of fantasy sports,” in a statement to the Wall Street Journal.

Considering the events of the last month, operators and players alike can hope for nothing better.

Public support makes Blue Jays the World Series favorite at Westgate SuperBook

The Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers are the favorites to meet in the 2015 World Series, according to odds released Monday by the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

The Blue Jays, who are listed at 7-2 odds, vaulted to the top of the AL East standings in the final two months of the season, going 39-15 in August and September after a flurry of moves at the trading deadline.

“Ever since they made those trade acquisitions at the deadline, they’ve just become such a public team,” said Jeff Sherman, assistant manager of the SuperBook. “It’s been reflected in their individual game prices, and they’ve been extremely well-supported, especially when David Price is out there pitching. We always take large wagers supporting him.”

Price is slated to take the mound for Game 1 of the Blue Jays’ ALDS series on Thursday. Toronto will also have its other high-profile acquisition back, as Troy Tulowitzki returned from a three-week absence due to a shoulder injury last week and appeared to be back to full health.

Also in the American League, Sherman said the public’s stance on Kansas City had a significant impact on where the SuperBook placed the Royals.

“We have the Royals down there at 4-1, and we would have them higher if they hadn’t gotten so much betting support all season,” Sherman said. “We’d probably have them in the 6-1 range if not for the money that was consistent for them all year.”

At 2-1 to win the National League and 5-1 for the World Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers are the favorites on the Senior Circuit.

“You can look at them in the regular season and discount a lot of factors,” Sherman said, “but when you get to the postseason and you’ve got (Clayton) Kershaw and (Zack) Greinke going for you—even though Kershaw didn’t pitch that great in the postseason last year—it’s just such an advantage for a starting point that it’s going to be reflected in their odds based on that.”

2015 WORLD SERIES     

Blue Jays 7-2
Royals 4-1
Dodgers 5-1
Mets 6-1
Cardinals 7-1
Rangers 8-1
Cubs 12-1
Pirates 12-1
Yankees 14-1
Astros 16-1

2015 NATIONAL LEAGUE PENNANT   

Dodgers 2-1
Cardinals 3-1
Mets 9-2
Cubs 6-1
Pirates 6-1

2015 AMERICAN LEAGUE PENNANT     

Blue Jays 8-5
Royals 9-5
Rangers 4-1
Yankees 7-1

Betting Futures Show American League Has Most Parity In Recent History

Much has been said about the parity of this year’s American League and the wide-open nature of the pennant race. The Washington Times called 2015 “the year of parity,” and before the season, a Baseball America headline declared that “Parity Makes AL Races Tricky To Predict.”

Are these claims actually true, though? To check, I collected All-Star break pennant futures from Las Vegas and offshore for the last four seasons. Using futures is a better metric for determining parity than win totals, as betting odds factor in injuries, trades, and projected trajectories over the course of the season while also cutting through the statistical noise that comes with win totals, which aren’t always a very good measure of team performance, both past and future.

For each season, I ranked each team’s odds from the No. 1 favorite to the greatest longshot and plotted them on a chart. If this year’s AL race is as wide open as many claim, we would expect to see a much flatter line from the No. 1 team to the last-place team relative to other years, with longer-than-average odds for the top few teams and shorter-than-average-odds for the later teams.

allstar

*Vegas win probabilities are derived from the implied percentages from betting odds (i.e. 4-1 would convert to 20%) and then dividing these percentages by the sum of the implied percentages on every team (generally around 130%) so that they total to 100 percent.

At first glance, that’s not the trend we seem to see. At the all-star break, the favorite Royals did have lower-than-average pennant probabilities for a division leader (17.2%), but they weren’t quite as long as those of the 2012 National League-leading Washington Nationals, which had only a 14.4% chance of winning the pennant.

From the chart, the only real area you could clearly claim there’s more parity in this year’s AL is at the bottom of the list, where the basement-dwelling 12th to 15th-best teams (Seattle, Chicago White Sox, Oakland, and Texas) have slightly better odds of winning the pennant than basement-dwelling teams of years past did.

However, the above chart only allows for a rough eye test. A more comprehensive way to measure distribution in a group is with an economics metric called the Gini coefficient. Gini is measured on a scale from 0 to 1, with 0 being perfectly equal and 1 being perfectly unequal. If this year’s AL were more wide open than years past, we would expect to find a low Gini coefficient.

allstar2

That’s exactly what we see. There’s quite a large difference in Gini for the 2015 AL than for pennant races of years past. This is largely due to the strength of the bottom teams. While these basement dwellers are still unlikely to advance to the World Series, their probabilities in the 2-4% range are orders of magnitude greater than typical teams that low on the totem poll.

There are certainly some strong A.L. contenders this year, but the crop at the bottom with realistic chances of playing late into October makes this season’s pennant race about as wide open as it gets.

Follow Jim Pagels on Twitter at @jimpagels