Tag: College football

The question still hangs in the air today, but it’s steadily losing urgency and relevance as we inch closer to the two College Football Playoff semifinal games on New Year’s Day. And by kickoff at the Rose Bowl, the question will have lost all of its meaning, because that’s how these things work these days.

That question—which seemed all-important in the minutes directly following the College Football Playoff selection show on ESPN and likely continues to remain so only in certain cities in Texas—is as follows: Should Ohio State have made the inaugural Playoff over Big 12 co-champions Baylor or TCU?

“If I was setting [the College Football Playoff], I would have had TCU in,” said Nick Bogdanovich, Director of Trading at William Hill U.S.. “It’s so close. Really, there’s no clear-cut argument other than that there should have been eight [teams] in the playoffs to begin with.

“I personally would have put TCU in, but it’s not the biggest crime you’ve ever seen by having Ohio State in there.”

In Bogdanovich’s eyes, the question is a moot point. The issue of deserving teams being left without a chance to play for the championship existed in the days of the BCS and will continue to exist in the age of the Playoff (as it’s currently constructed), even though the four-team format of ESPN’s latest money-printing venture was supposed to erase the problem.

Baylor and TCU are simply the latest casualties of a slightly improved postseason system that will continue to reward blue-blooded programs (read: Ohio State) at the expense of teams perceived by the committee as upstart contenders.

So did the Big 12 co-champions get screwed? It depends on your point of view.

According to Bogdanovich, a hypothetical Baylor vs. Ohio State game would have been listed as a pick ’em at William Hill U.S., and the same line would have applied in a TCU vs. Ohio State matchup. But with only four teams making it to the dance, those games will remain unlined and unplayed. That is, until the College Football Playoff expands to encompass more teams.

“Eight [teams are] enough; 16 is too many. Let’s face it: [No.] 16, 15, 14, 13 probably couldn’t win it anyway,” Bogdanovich said. “I think eight was always the right number, and I wish it could’ve been eight this year so we could have Baylor and TCU in.”

THE BIG TEN: OVERRATED IN BOWL SEASON?

A conference record-tying 10 Big Ten teams accepted bowl bids this year, matching the record set in 2011. But unlike 2011, all 10 B1G schools opened as underdogs in their respective bowl game matchups:

Since 2003, teams from the Big Ten have covered the spread 55.10 percent of the time in bowl games, a very respectable number. Compared to the rest of the Power 5 conferences, the Big Ten stacks up quite favorably. The B1G ranks higher than the SEC (54.29% ATS), the ACC (54.08%), and the Big 12 (35.53%); only the Pac-12 has a better ATS record (59.74%) during that time.Despite all 10 schools being dogs this year, and contrary to the public perception of the Big Ten being full of teams with plodding offenses incapable of keeping up, the Big Ten has more than held its own during the postseason from an against-the-spread perspective.

The Big Ten is still a top-heavy conference, though. There’s no denying that, especially based on what we’ve seen in recent years.

“[The Big Ten] has been down for awhile now; the bottom of the conference has been so horrible,” Bogdanovich said. “I still think the Ohio States, the Wisconsins, the Michigan States of the world can play with anyone. I think you’ll see that when Ohio State plays Alabama. I think you’ll see a highly competitive game.”

Based on its ATS record over the past decade or so, you could do worse than blindly betting on Big Ten schools to cover during bowl season, despite the conference being down (as a whole) in recent years. Of course, we’re not advocating betting the mortgage on the likes of Illinois or Maryland, but the B1G is certainly worth a closer look before you step to the window.

There’s no question about it.

(Bowl season ATS records courtesy of TeamRankings.com)

The inaugural College Football Playoff is still two weeks away, but excitement continues to build as we all wait for the two semifinal games to arrive: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl, and No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State in the Rose Bowl.

For bettors, that excitement is less about the controversial selection announcement delivered on Dec. 7—“controversial” meaning “rigged,” if you’re a fan of Baylor or TCU—and more about the spreads on the games scheduled for New Year’s Day.

As we knew within 10 minutes of those pairings being announced, both games opened with lines of more than a touchdown. While not necessarily surprising, seeing Alabama and Oregon favored by 9.5 and 8.5 points, respectively, marked the official start of bowl season for degenerate and sharp bettors alike.

Happy Holidays, indeed.

Nearly every sports book—whether Vegas-based or offshore—has since settled in at Alabama -9.5 and Oregon -9*, including William Hill U.S., one of Nevada’s most conspicuous sports betting outlets. The U.S. arm of William Hill Online currently operates approximately 100 betting locations across the state and also serves as the risk manager for the State of Delaware’s sports lottery. The company’s handle on the College Football Playoff semifinal games is nothing to write home about yet, but that’s due to timing, not a lack of interest.

“When the game’s three weeks away, the betting’s pretty slow,” said Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill U.S.’s director of trading. “Some professionals [have] played the games or maybe some people who won’t be back in town [before Jan. 1] played the games. Other than that, most people have not gotten involved with those games yet.”

That’s to be expected, Bogdanovich noted. With a slew of other bowl games to choose from before the end of the year—not to mention the NBA, NHL and NCAA basketball regular-season cards—bettors will generally avoid tying their money up in games a couple weeks away. There’s no doubt that action on the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl will come rolling in, but the majority of it won’t be until a day or two before the New Year.

It’s also likely that the current lines won’t hold steady.

“I think both numbers are inflated,” Bogdanovich said. “Alabama’s and Oregon’s defenses are suspect. I see Ohio State and Florida State getting their share of scoring.

“We’re talking about Ohio State and Florida State being underdogs, and you never see them in the underdog role. I guarantee you the public will bet both of those ’dogs on the moneyline. You’re getting a quality team with a nice ‘plus’ price.”

That “nice plus price” is creeping close to 3-to-1 at some shops. A moneyline that high next to the name “Buckeyes” or “Seminoles” will probably be too tempting for those fan bases—and the public—to pass up. Take it from the guy who manages William Hill U.S.’s sports risk: If you’re looking to get a good price on Ohio State or Florida State, you’ll want to fire on those games earlier than most, before the numbers drop.

Bogdanovich also gave Betting Talk his projected lines for each of the four potential national championship matchups. (Or, at least, his early thoughts about the numbers he’d hang right now.)

No. 1 Alabama (-2) vs. No. 2 Oregon
Bogdanovich: “I’m thinking ’Bama small—2 or 2.5.”

No. 1 Alabama (-4) vs. No. 3 Florida State
Bogdanovich: “I couldn’t make Alabama any more than 4 or 4.5. Some people might have it higher, but I think that’s crazy.”

No. 2 Oregon (-3) vs. No. 4 Ohio State
Bogdanovich: “Oregon low, because it’d be an Ohio State team that destroyed Wisconsin and then would have beaten the so-called No. 1 in Alabama. Oregon by 3 or 3.5.”

No. 3 Florida State (pk) vs. No. 4 Ohio State
Bogdanovich: “That would be a good, dead pick-em game.”

Yes, they’re speculative lines. And yes, a lot can and will happen between now and then. But barring suspensions, injuries or a major blowout in either semifinal, these lines probably reflect how Bogdanovich, his team and other bookmakers will stake their positions on the championship game.

The lesson for now? There’s value on the underdogs.

At least in the eyes of one bookmaker.

* * *

*Editor’s note: This post was written before the injury news about Oregon CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, which has since moved the line at some books.