Betting roundup: Favorites survive a wild opening weekend in NCAA Tournament

Even for March Madness, the first weekend of the NCAA tournament was a wild one.

Nine double-digit seeds advanced past the first round, including 15-seed Middle Tennessee State, which knocked off Michigan State with relative ease, 90-81.

But after a chaotic opening weekend, the dust is settling on a Sweet 16 field that’s dominated by top seeds. Just two of the double-digit seeds—tourney stalwarts Gonzaga and Syracuse—won their second round matchups, and Gonzaga was actually favored in its first-round matchup against Seton Hall.

A few betting notes and nuggets from the tournament’s first weekend:

Historic comeback or an epic collapse?

Northern Iowa (+7) covered Sunday night against Texas A&M, but doesn’t begin to tell the story of the 11th-seeded Panthers’ 92-88 loss in double overtime.

After advancing to the second round on a buzzer-beating halfcourt shot in the first round against Texas, Northern Iowa was set to advance to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since 2010 and the second time in school history. With 44 seconds left, they led by 12 points before a historic meltdown that featured four turnovers culminated in the Aggies’ game-tying steal and layup just before the end of regulation.

At one point, bettors could have had the Aggies moneyline at +675.

Yahoo has a blow-by-blow breakdown of the comeback/collapse.

Bad for Sparty, good for sports books 

Michigan State became the fourth No. 2 seed in the last five years to lose in the first round, and Nevada’s sports books couldn’t be happier about the outcome.

The Spartans spent a good portion of the regular season as the No. 1 team in the AP Poll and the favorite in the futures market, and many believed they were deserving of a No. 1 seed. They were one of the three favorites at the Westgate SuperBook, William Hill US and offshore book 5Dimes, and no team received more support in terms of tickets or overall money wagered at Westgate.

Little consensus in betting markets as Stephen F. Austin narrowly misses Sweet 16

One of the most interesting lines of the weekend involved 14 seed Stephen F. Austin, which opened as a favorite against Notre Dame at some books, and closed any where from a pick ’em to a two-point underdog.

The Lumberjacks, who advanced with an easy win over West Virginia in the first round, led by as many as five late in the game before eventually falling, 76-75, on an Irish tip-in with 1.5 seconds remaining.

The one-point win for Notre Dame left no clear winner across the board, as books took bets on both sides of the highly volatile line.

“I’ve heard guests say, ‘I could have had Stephen F. Austin at plus-2 and I got that at Pick,’” Chuck Esposito, Sunset Station sports book director told the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

AROUND THE WEB

TWEETS OF NOTE

ODDS & ENDS

ODDSMAKER’S TAKE

“The public just got crushed. The games kept falling our way, the ‘dogs and favorites were falling our way. We started rolling early and kept going all night.” —Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller on the house’s strong start in the NCAA Tournament.

NCAA Tournament off to a slow start at some sports books, but typical ‘Madness’ expected

Spurred by the ever-popular NCAA tournament, sports books have set records for basketball handle in March in each of the last two years and could do so this year if projections hold true.

But so far, betting volume is a little off last year’s pace at William Hill’s Nevada sports books, according to director of trading Nick Bogdanovich.

Bogdanovich told ESPN Radio/Las Vegas on Wednesday that action on the First Four games was “down a little from last year,” and that overall betting action had been somewhat light heading into what will likely be the busiest four-day stretch of the year.

“It’s been a disappointing couple of days as far as handle. I think it’s been fairly slow. It’ll pick up fast and furious (Thursday) for sure, and hopefully later on (Wednesday).”

If handle is down at William Hill’s 105 books in Nevada, it’s a fair indication of trends statewide. Prognostications are nonetheless rosy, however, as the tournament tips off in earnest today.

Some books were slated to open at 5:30 a.m. Thursday, and seating at watch parties is expected to be at a premium at venues throughout Las Vegas.

William Hill’s odds on Thursday’s games (as of 8 p.m. Eastern Wednesday) 

COLLEGE BASKETBALLCURRENT POINT SPREAD% of TICKETS AS OF 5PM PST% of $’s WAGERED AS OF 5PM PST
NC WILMINGTON vs. DUKEDUKE -10.556% NC WILMINGTON66% NC WILMINGTON
BUTLER vs. TEXAS TECHBUTLER -463% BUTLER81% BUTLER
UCONN vs. COLORADOUCONN -3.558% UCONN62% COLORADO
IONA vs. IOWA STATEIOWA ST -868% IONA79% IONA
YALE vs. BAYLORBAYLOR -5.570% BAYLOR79% BAYLOR
HAMPTON vs. VIRGINIAVIRGINIA -2483% HAMPTON55% HAMPTON
AUSTIN PEAY vs. KANSASKANSAS -2660% AUSTIN PEAY64% AUSTIN PEAY
ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK vs. PURDUEPURDUE -955% ARK LR75% ARK LR
BUFFALO vs. MIAMI FLORIDAMIAMI FL -13.561% MIAMI FL54% MIAMI FL
CHATTANOOGA vs. INDIANAINDIANA -11.551% CHATANOOGA59% CHATANOOGA
FLORIDA GULF COAST vs. NORTH CAROLINAUNC -2270% FGCU85% FGCU
FRESNO STATE vs. UTAHUTAH -8.555% UTAH50% FRESNO ST/UTAH
WICHITA STATE vs. ARIZONAARIZONA -1.554% ARIZONA54% WICHITA ST
STONY BROOK vs. KENTUCKYKENTUCKY -1475% KENTUCKY61% KENTUCKY
PROVIDENCE vs. SOUTHERN CALPROVIDENCE -269% PROVIDENCE83% PROVIDENCE
GONZAGA vs. SETON HALLGONZAGA -164% SETON HALL51% SETON HALL

AROUND THE WEB

LOOK WHO’S TALKING

“When I started at CG Technology in 2011 the overall handle in the state of Nevada was less than $2 billion, last year the state of Nevada did $4.3 billion and this year they expect the state of Nevada to do over $5 billion.” —Matthew Holt, CG Technology’s COO, on the booming business of sports betting.

ODDS & ENDS

ODDSMAKER’S TAKE

“The worst team for us right now is Indiana. We took several wagers on them at 70-1 back in January, and then an accumulation of bets throughout the season on them, even as their price shortened.” —Jason Simbal, CG Technology’s vice president of race and sports, discussing line movements and betting trends this week.

Betting roundup: Bettors backing Baylor, Butler in NCAA Tournament’s Thursday slate

Gamblers got off to a solid start in this year’s NCAA tournament as the First Four games tipped off with a Tuesday night doubleheader.

Both favorites won and covered easily, with Florida Gulf Coast (-5.5) trouncing Fairleigh Dickinson, 96-65, and Wichita State (-3.5) taking a 70-50 win over Vanderbilt.

William Hill US reported that 55 percent of the money and 61 percent of tickets were in favor of FGCU, while 78 percent of the money was on Wichita State as of Tuesday afternoon. At BetOnline, 64 percent of money wagered was on FGCU, with 60 percent on Wichita State.

The field of 64 will be finalized tonight as the First Four wraps up with another doubleheader. As of Wednesday morning, Southern is favored by two over Holy Cross at most books, while Michigan is giving 3.5 against Tulsa in the nightcap.

Who else are bettors behind?

On ESPN’s Behind the Bets podcast, Bob Scucci, director of race and sports for Boyd Gaming, predicted gamblers would be all over Baylor in the Bears’ first-round game against Yale. So far, it looks like he’s right.

Though most of the bigger money is expected to come in closer to game time, Baylor has been the overwhelming choice among gamblers at most sports books. At William Hill’s sports books, the Baylor/Yale matchup was the most popular Thursday game in terms of tickets written as of Tuesday afternoon, and 83 percent of the money was on the Bears, currently a 5-point favorite.

But the biggest disparity in terms of money wagered on Thursday’s games is Butler, which was getting 94 percent of the support at William Hill as of Tuesday afternoon. The Bulldogs are currently a four-point favorite against Texas Tech at most books and giving 3.5 at William Hill.

AROUND THE WEB

LOOK WHO’S TALKING

“But it’s basically we’re sending a message to the court that we’re prepared in the state of New York to allow daily fantasy sports to continue — providing it’s monitored, it’s regulated and there are consumer protections.”—John Bonacic, the Racing and Gaming Committee Chairman in the New York State Senate.

The senate’s proposed state budget quietly included language that would make DFS a legal, regulated activity in the state, where the industry is embroiled in an ongoing legal battle with Attorney General Eric Schneiderman. That’s the good news.

The bad news is that Bonacic’s plan for regulation includes a $500,000 licensing fee and a 15 percent tax on gross revenue generated by players in the state. That could make it near impossible for all but the biggest operators to do business in the state.

TWEETS OF NOTE

ODDS & ENDS

ODDSMAKER’S TAKE

“We were a little high on Cal. We opened at 7 and it got bet down to 6, and I think that was the first one out of the gate. I wasn’t even done hanging the numbers yet when the money came in on that one.” —Boyd Gaming’s Bob Scucci, on betting support for Hawaii.

Report: Brackets outnumber votes, March Madness betting more than doubles Super Bowl

The number of brackets filled out this week will outnumber the total votes ever cast for a single presidential candidate, according to the American Gaming Association.

The AGA, a casino industry advocacy group, released the figures Monday, claiming 70 million brackets are expected to be filled out during March Madness this year. No President has ever received more than 69 million votes, per data from the Roper Center.

The total amount that will be wagered on this year’s tournament is estimated to hit $9.2 billion, with only about $262 million through legal channels. For comparison, the AGA predicted $4.2 billion would be bet on this year’s Super Bowl, with legal gambling accounting for just $115 million (actual Super Bowl betting in Nevada surpassed the AGA’s estimate).

“Americans’ passion for betting fuels the unmatched popularity of March Madness,” AGA president and CEO Geoff Freeman said in a press release. “Betting increasingly drives sports fans—and even casual observers—to invest in the tournament, offering further evidence that sports betting is the new national pastime. It’s time for a fresh, rational approach to sports betting that reflects this reality.”

In Nevada, the impact of the NCAA tournament is obvious. Monthly betting handle on basketball has set records each of the last two years in March, hitting $375 million last year (NCAA and NBA combined). Much of the action comes in the first weekend of the tournament, as the first two rounds are completed between Thursday and Sunday.

“It’s crazy, because that first weekend is all in, and then the rest of the tournament betting wise is sort of calm,” said Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill US director of trading. “(Bettors) embrace that first four days of furious action where they can make a straight bet or make an eight-teamer, no problem, and you can get hot and turn a little into a lot or go broke trying to chase your money.

“It turns into quite a betting spectacle those first four days.”

AROUND THE WEB

  • FanDuel, DraftKings and the Fantasy Sports Trade Association oppose the DFS bill that passed a New Jersey Senate Committee on Monday. The bill would allow fantasy contests in the state, but would introduce taxes and regulatory fees, and it makes no statement on the matter of skill vs. chance.
  • A small startup site says it will have to leave Virginia due to a recently passed law, which includes a $50,000 licensing fee.
  • Pennsylvania remains the best candidate for online gambling expansion this year.
  • Pinnacle has launched a native mobile app.

LOOK WHO’S TALKING

“If you’re a college basketball fan, it’s better than the Super Bowl because there is a lot more action” —Jay Rood, sports book director for MGM Resorts, on March Madness in Las Vegas.

TWEETS OF NOTE

ODDS & ENDS

ODDSMAKER’S TAKE

“West Virginia was probably our biggest miss in terms of opener,” CG Technology’s Jason Simbal on the fluctuating point spreads for first-round matchups.

Selection committee second guessed by bookmakers; futures odds for NCAA field

The theme of upsets that ran through conference tournament week extended to the selection committee as the field for the NCAA tournament was announced Sunday with more than a few puzzlers.

Snubs are as much a part of the annual ritual of March Madness as first-round upsets and buzzer beaters, but this year’s bracket seems especially out-of-sync with public perception—and betting market values.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi correctly predicted 65 of the 68 teams—his lowest total since 2011—but didn’t hold back in a column headlined “The selection committee got so much wrong–and here is how.”

… the committee’s performance is slipping, year over year, and it’s also my job to point that out when necessary. Put aside my three misses for a moment — Vanderbilt (perfectly reasonable selection), Syracuse (borderline at best) and Tulsa (indefensible by every known standard) — and what you have is a selection and bracketing process that appears to have gone off the rails.

Bookmakers were also bewildered by some of the committee’s decisions. In addition to Tulsa getting in, Oregon getting a No. 1 seed over Michigan State was especially egregious in the eyes of many, including Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports at MGM Resorts.

Rood, to the Las Vegas Sun:

Michigan State not getting a No. 1 seed was screwy. They’ve been the clear-cut favorite for us the last few weeks, so I think they really missed the mark on that. … (No. 4 seed) Kentucky has a more solid power rating than Oregon. Oregon is just living off of recency. If you would have told me a week ago that Oregon was going to be a No. 1 seed, there’s no way I would have believed you.

Prior to the bracket announcement, the Ducks were listed at 30/1 odds to win the tournament, while the Spartans were one of the favorites at 5/1.

Maybe the only thing garnering more dismal reviews than the selection committee is CBS’s selection show. Freshly bloated to a two-hour runtime, it was a near unanimous flop, from Charles Barkley fumbling with touchscreens, to the actual bracket getting leaked on Twitter prior to the network unveiling.

Thankfully for all involved, basketball gets started with a First Four doubleheader Tuesday night. As of Monday morning, Florida Gulf Coast is a consensus six-point favorite over Fairleigh Dickinson, while Wichita State is giving three points to Vanderbilt.

NCAA Tournament futures odds

 WestgateWilliam Hill5Dimes
Kansas9/29/2+515
Michigan State5/19/2+815
North Carolina5/14/1+635
Virginia12/115/1+900
Villanova12/118/1+1300
Kentucky15/110/1+1350
Oregon15/112/1+2200
Oklahoma20/118/1+1200
Xavier25/130/1+3000
West Virginia25/125/1+1800
Duke25/128/1+2500
Miami30/140/1+5000
Texas A&M30/130/1+3000
Indiana30/140/1+4000
Purdue30/150/1+3300
Maryland30/130/1+3500
Utah40/140+6600
California40/150/1+6000
Arizona40/135/1+4500
Iowa State60/160/1+5500
Baylor60/150/1+8000
Texas 80/175/1+5500
Notre Dame80/175/1+11000
Seton Hall80/150/1+15000
Gonzaga80/1100/1
Wisconsin100/1100/1+10000
Dayton100/1200/1+20000
Iowa 80/1150/1+8000
Uconn100/150/1
Vanderbilt100/1200/1
Wichita State80/1100/1
Oregon State80/1300/1+35000
St. Joseph's200/1125/1
Providence200/175/1
Butler200/1200/1
Cincinnati200/1125/1
VCU200/1200/1
Michigan 200/1300/1
Texas Tech200/1300/1
Colorado200/1200/1
Pitt300/1200/1
Syracuse300/1200/1
Temple300/1250/1
Tulsa300/1300/1
Northern Iowa500/1250/1
Chattanooga500/1600/1
Arkansas-Little Rock500/1600/1
Hawaii1000/1400/1
Buffalo1000/1400/1
Fresno State1000/1400/1
S.F. Austin1000/1250/1
Middle Tenn. State1000/11000/1
Yale1000/1600/1
South Dakota State1000/11000/1
NC Wilmington2000/1600/1
Stony Brook2000/11000/1
Iona2000/1400/1
Wisc-Green Bay2000/1750/1
Cal St. Bakersfield2000/12500/1
UNC-Asheville2000/11000/1
Weber State5000/1600/1
Austin Peay9999/12500/1
Hampton9999/15000/1
Fla. Gulf Coast9999/15000/1
Fairleigh Dickinson9999/15000/1
Southern9999/15000/1
Holy Cross9999/15000/1

AROUND THE WEB

LOOK WHO’S TALKING

“We go to great lengths to prevent the tournament field from being revealed early and the NCAA took its usual measures to prevent this from happening. Unfortunately, and regrettably, the bracket was revealed prior to our broadcast partners having the opportunity to finish unveiling it. We take this matter seriously and we are looking into it.”—NCAA statement after the official brackets were leaked early on Twitter on Sunday.

TWEETS OF NOTE

ODDS & ENDS

ODDSMAKER’S TAKE

“It’s almost like they had the seeds backwards here. The ceiling for Gonzaga is much higher. That’s one of the teams that’s a double-digit seed, though they shouldn’t be, that could go far in the tournament.”—Jay Rood, VP of race and sports for MGM Resorts, on one of many gripes with this year’s NCAA tournament bracket.

Still worth betting on Kentucky to go 40-0?

John Calipari’s undefeated Kentucky Wildcats currently sit at No. 1 in the voting polls, they’re steamrolling through the SEC and dominating everyone’s power rankings, and at 22-0 they’re only 18 wins shy—nine regular season, three SEC Tournament, and six NCAA tournament—of joining the 1975-76 Indiana Hoosiers (32-0) in college hoops immortality with a perfect 40-0 record.

More than halfway there.

So, what were the odds of them running the table at the beginning of the season, what are they now, and is there possibly any value on either side of the “Will Kentucky finish the season undefeated” prop bet?

Back in November, William Hill U.S. was one of the Las Vegas sports books to offer the prop, including SEC Tournament and NCAA Tournament play, booking 39 bets on ‘Yes’ at a whopping 50-to-1 odds. As of this week, the odds had shortened considerably.

“We’ve had that prop up for a long time, and it’s been a two-way price the entire time,” said Nick Bogdanovich, Director of Trading for William Hill U.S. “It’s just been getting bet ‘Yes’ and ‘Yes’ and ‘Yes,’ so we’ll see how low it gets.”

The prop currently sits at ‘Yes’ (+370), ‘No’ (-450). Action hasn’t necessarily dried up on this bet, but it’s much more balanced today than it was earlier in the season.

“I think [the price] is right where it needs to be,” Bogdanovich said. “The sharps aren’t busting down the door to get to either side, so it must be a pretty good number.

“That’s the one thing about putting up a number in Las Vegas. There are so many good professional bettors that if you hang a bad [number], they’ll correct you pretty soon.”

So is there any value left in betting Kentucky to go undefeated at +370? Or is it worth it to lay -450 in the hopes that they lose a game between now and April 6?

There aren’t many regular-season games remaining that pose a threat, mainly because the SEC features Kentucky at No. 1 in KenPom.com’s power ratings and then no other team inside the Top 25.

Here’s a look at the projected spreads and odds of winning for Kentucky’s nine remaining regular-season games, just based solely off KenPom’s projected scores and SBR’s spread/moneyline converter. (We realize this isn’t an exact science for the projected spreads; however, we’re merely using them to illustrate the overall point.)

DateOpponentPower ratingProjected lineUK expected win percentage
Feb. 7@ Florida82.6UK -983.8%
Feb. 10@ LSU79.8UK -1192.4%
Feb. 14vs. South Carolina80UK -17100%
Feb. 17@ Tennessee67.7UK -13100%
Feb. 21vs. Auburn57UK -24100%
Feb. 25@Mississippi State50.5UK -17100%
Feb. 28vs. Arkansas83.2UK -19100%
Mar. 3@ Georgia84.4UK -983.8%
Mar. 7vs. Florida82.6UK -15100%

Despite every game being well in their favor to win, KenPom gives the Wildcats basically a 50-50 shot of making it through the regular season unscathed. Their toughest games are either at Florida tonight or at Georgia on March 3.

Basically, unless UK comes out flat and runs into a hot-shooting opponent on the road, there’s a decent chance they’ll still be undefeated come SEC Tournament time. Let’s assume Kentucky will earn the No. 1 seed because, well, they’re going to earn the No. 1 seed. That means a double-bye to the quarterfinals, then games against the following teams based on the current SEC standings: No. 8 Florida, then No. 4 Ole Miss, then No. 2 Arkansas. They’ll likely be double-digit favorites against any SEC opponent on a neutral court.

In short, the SEC Tournament could play out the same way for Kentucky, which is to say: zero losses and a bunch of happy ‘Yes’ bettors.

The NCAA Tournament is a different story. Whether you decide to put your money down on Kentucky to run the table will come down to whether you think they’ll receive a favorable draw—and they should, being that they’ll likely earn the tournament’s overall No. 1 seed—and whether they can weather the storm as a young team on a succession of neutral or semi-neutral courts.

The quality of competition from the Sweet 16 on will likely be much better than what they’ve faced in the SEC.

Like Bogdanovich told Betting Talk, the current price of +370 appears to have been hammered into place. The early value of 50-to-1 might be gone, but Kentucky has shown they’re capable of winning out in the SEC and the conference tournament.

Backing the Wildcats to run the table in the NCAA Tournament will require a leap of faith, as all futures bets do.

What is the percentage chance a team wins the game based on the closing point spread?

SPONSOR: If interested in college basketball, college football or WNBA picks, check out Right Angle Sports at handicapper.net or on Twitter at @RASPicks.

Using the handy spread-to-moneyline converter available at SBR Forum, we came up with tables for favorite and underdog win percentages based on the point spread across the NFL, college football, NBA and college basketball.

Note: You can also use these to calculate projected wins for a season based on projected — or actual — point spreads. For example, the Seahawks are favored by 5 over the Packers in the Thursday Night opener, so that’d count as 0.681 wins for Seattle and 0.319 wins for Green Bay. Do that a bunch of times and you get a rough estimate of the “Vegas projection” (or, more accurately, the CG Technologies projection) of wins for each NFL team.

NFL

SpreadFavoriteUnderdog
050.0%50.0%
0.550.0%50.0%
151.3%48.8%
1.552.5%47.5%
253.5%46.5%
2.554.5%45.5%
359.4%40.6%
3.564.3%35.7%
465.8%34.2%
4.567.3%32.7%
568.1%31.9%
5.569.0%31.1%
670.7%29.4%
6.572.4%27.7%
775.2%24.8%
7.578.1%21.9%
879.1%20.9%
8.580.2%19.8%
980.7%19.3%
9.581.1%18.9%
1083.6%16.4%
10.586.0%14.0%
1187.1%12.9%
11.588.2%11.8%
1288.5%11.6%
12.588.7%11.3%
1389.3%10.7%
13.590.0%10.0%
1492.4%7.6%
14.594.9%5.1%
1595.6%4.4%
15.596.3%3.7%
1698.1%1.9%
16.599.8%0.2%
17+100.0%0.0%

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

SpreadFavoriteUnderdog
050.0%50.0%
0.550.0%50.0%
151.2%48.8%
1.552.5%47.5%
253.4%46.6%
2.554.3%45.8%
357.4%42.6%
3.560.6%39.4%
461.9%38.1%
4.563.1%36.9%
564.1%35.9%
5.565.1%34.9%
666.4%33.6%
6.567.7%32.3%
770.3%29.7%
7.573.0%27.0%
873.8%26.2%
8.574.6%25.4%
975.1%25.0%
9.575.5%24.5%
1077.4%22.6%
10.579.3%20.8%
1179.9%20.1%
11.580.6%19.4%
1281.6%18.4%
12.582.6%17.4%
1383.0%17.0%
13.583.5%16.5%
1485.1%14.9%
14.586.8%13.2%
1587.4%12.6%
15.588.1%12.0%
1688.6%11.5%
16.589.1%11.0%
1791.4%8.6%
17.593.7%6.3%
1895.0%5.1%
18.596.2%3.8%
1997.3%2.7%
19.598.4%1.6%
20+100.0%0.0%

NBA

SpreadFavoriteUnderdog
050.0%50.0%
0.550.0%50.0%
151.1%48.9%
1.552.3%47.7%
254.3%45.7%
2.556.3%43.7%
358.2%41.8%
3.560.1%39.9%
461.9%38.1%
4.563.6%36.4%
565.8%34.2%
5.568.0%32.0%
670.1%29.9%
6.572.1%27.9%
774.2%25.8%
7.576.3%23.8%
878.4%21.7%
8.580.5%19.6%
982.8%17.2%
9.585.2%14.8%
1087.3%12.7%
10.589.4%10.6%
1191.3%8.7%
11.593.2%6.8%
1295.0%5.0%
12.596.8%3.2%
1398.7%1.3%
13.5+100.0%0.0%

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

SpreadFavoriteUnderdog
050.0%50.0%
0.550.0%50.0%
151.7%48.3%
1.553.5%46.5%
255.4%44.6%
2.557.4%42.6%
359.7%40.3%
3.562.1%38.0%
464.1%35.9%
4.566.2%33.8%
568.2%31.8%
5.570.2%29.8%
672.0%28.1%
6.573.7%26.3%
775.8%24.3%
7.577.8%22.2%
879.8%20.3%
8.581.7%18.3%
983.8%16.2%
9.585.9%14.1%
1088.1%11.9%
10.590.3%9.7%
1192.4%7.6%
11.594.5%5.5%
1296.7%3.3%
12.598.9%1.1%
13+100.0%0.0%

Revised college basketball rules have resulted in ‘crazy,’ volatile totals betting market

Sportsbooks are scrambling to adjust to college basketball’s new foul-friendly rules, producing an erratic market that has seen giant line movements on over/unders.

The total on the Duke-Kansas game opened as low as 149 and closed as high as 159. The total on the Michigan State-Kentucky game opened as low as 140 and closed as high as 147.5.

Ed Salmons, head oddsmaker at the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino SuperBook, estimated before the season that he needed to increase his college basketball totals by five percent because of the new rules.

“But it could be more like eight percent,” Salmons acknowledged in an email Wednesday.

Teams averaged 67.5 points last season, the lowest since 1981-82. In response, the NCAA re-emphasized and re-defined rules in the offseason in an attempt to create more offense.

Among the new points of emphasis:

  • Reduce hand-checking
  • Limit how post-defenders are allowed to use their arms
  • Give offensive players the benefit of the doubt on block/charge calls

The rules have produced more fouls, and as a result, there have been higher scoring and longer games.

According to statistician Ken Pomeroy, scoring was up 6.4 percent during the opening weekend of games featuring two Division I teams. There were 14.7 percent more free throws attempted per 40 minutes. (There were 73 fouls called in a Seton Hall-Niagara game.)

Nine teams were averaging more than 100 points as of Wednesday. According to SportsOptions’s line archives, seven games have seen their totals grow by six or more points over the first five days of the season.

It’s not unusual for books to struggle with lines and totals early in the college hoops season. They protect themselves by lowering limits and posting totals later and later and on increasingly fewer games. But this season is particularly dangerous.

“We treat the college totals with kids’ gloves, regardless,” said Nick Bogdanovich, Director of Trading for William Hill US. “But, obviously with the rules changes, it’s like double jeopardy. We’re watching them closely, moving them electrically fast and taking smaller limits.”

Bogdanovich said he won’t hesitate to move totals two or three points at a time until a larger sample of data is available to accurately gauge the impact of the new rules.

“Eventually, it’ll get priced out,” Bogdanovich said. “But this is crazy, right now. You don’t know what you’re up against. This is uncharted territory.”

The market actually might have already caught up. Eight of 14 games on Wednesday stayed under the total. On the season, there have been 43 overs and 37 unders (53.75 percent).

Undefeated Kentucky Prop

William Hill US offered a prop bet on Kentucky going undefeated this season. Bogdanovich opened the Wildcats at 400/1 to run the table. The prop closed at 30/1.

“They just kept betting it and betting it,” Bogdanovich said. “Props are meant for publicity and smaller bets, but we wrote almost $10,000 on this prop, which is more than a normal prop does.”

Kentucky lost, 78-74, to Michigan State in its third game of the season.