Most of the tickets so far for Super Bowl 49 have been written on the Patriots (pk or -1), but there hasn’t been significant line movement as a result.
The books are wary of adjusting the point spread too much in response to the flood of public money—which will ramp up in intensity tonight and tomorrow—because it would allow the sharps to grab a better number.
And as far as betting limits go, this is about the only time you can say that … there really aren’t any. At least, none that oddsmakers would admit to publicly.
“If we have a bet that we have to turn down, I’d be shocked,” said Nick Bogdanovich, Director of Trading for William Hill U.S. “There aren’t too many big bets that show up that we’d have to make a decision on [whether to book them or not].”
On Wednesday, Bogdanovich told Betting Talk that William Hill U.S. had taken “one small six-figure bet” on a side, and that the bet was booked earlier in the week. At the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, VP Jay Kornegay confirmed that a couple “larger wagers” ($100,000 or more) had been taken on either side.
“You never know when [the big bets] are going to come in, but I expect a few more this weekend,” Kornegay said.
A record $119.4 million was bet in the state of Nevada on last year’s Super Bowl between the Denver Broncos and the Seahawks, which smashed the previous record of $98.9 million wagered on the big game in 2013 between the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers.
The books aren’t expecting Super Bowl XLIX to break last year’s record, money-wise, but with an estimated 85 percent of all bets expected to come in over the weekend, there’s no sure way of knowing what the total handle will be.
Predicting where the line will close is a different story. Based on the action that’s been booked so far in Las Vegas, there seems to be a consensus feeling that it won’t move more than a point in either direction.
“There’s probably some bigger Seattle money out there, but the majority of the people will be on New England,” Kornegay said. “Our experience tells us this line is going to be dictated by public play.
“We only run into problems [with liability] when the bigger money and the public are on the same team, but I don’t see that in this game.”
The other complexity that oddsmakers will have to deal with in mitigating their exposure is managing the sheer volume of money wagered on the Super Bowl. This isn’t your standard NFL game where a big bet by a sharp player can set off alarm bells in the back room.
“It’s hard to detect when pros play it because the market’s so big they can bet so much without moving anything,” Bogdanovich said. “They’re probably waiting to see how much New England money will come in.”
When that New England money comes in is when the books will react. The only question that remains is whether the public will wager enough to force the oddsmakers’ hands.
PROP BETS ARE BETS, TOO
As the bookmaker’s adage goes: The more you write, the more you make.
Which is why, in addition to the standard spread, total and moneyline bets on the board this Sunday, sportsbooks will be offering their largest prop bet menus of the year. At the Superbook, the betting limits are capped at $2,000, but every little bit goes towards the bottom line on the game.
It’s not unusual for lists of 350-plus propositions to be offered at a Las Vegas book for the big game, which allows bettors alternative ways of putting their money down on a variety of scenarios related to nearly every aspect of the on-field action.
Anything from ‘Marshawn Lynch total rushing yards’ to ‘Lionel Messi goals vs. total fumbles lost’ to the opening coin toss—“Usually I’m shaking my head because we seem to lose it every year,” Kornegay said—is fair game.
At William Hill U.S., the top three most-bet props as of Thursday were: “Will there be a safety?” (Yes +475); “Will there be a special teams or defensive touchdown?” (Yes +145); and “Will there be a successful two-point conversion?” (Yes +310).
They’re also offering a prop on whether the first score of the game will be a Seattle safety—their seventh-most popular prop, probably due to ‘Yes’ bettors cashing those tickets in last year’s Super Bowl—which would pay 50-to-1.
If you’re looking for more exotic props, you’ll have to go offshore. (Remember, the Nevada Gaming Commission prevents books from offering novelty props, i.e. props that can’t be measured directly with stats or points.)
Bovada is offering an over/under of two minutes and one second for the national anthem (-120 both ways); a prop for the color of Bill Belichick’s hoodie (Gray -120, Blue +100, or Red +750); and, of course, the prop every media talking head will hate: ‘Will Marshawn Lynch grab his crotch after scoring a touchdown? (Yes +400, No -600)