Jay Cutler has a new seven-year deal to be the Chicago Bears quarterback. Somewhere, savvy bettors are rejoicing.
For handicappers who believe it really is all about the quarterback in the NFL, Cutler has been the greatest fade in the game. He is 40-62-3 against the spread as an NFL starter, the worst mark of any quarterback with at least three seasons under his belt. The Bears went 2-8-1 against the spread with Cutler as the starter this season and failed to make the playoffs.
Obviously, Cutler’s record against the point spread is not what Bears general manager Phil Emery used to make his decision. But maybe he should have.
The betting market does a better job of measuring expectations than it does predicting results. After being shaped by bettors, the closing point spread identifies how well those financially invested expect a team to perform compared to its opponent. Cutler’s teams have failed to meet those expectations in 61.2 percent of his starts. And, remember, it’s happened with two teams.
In his three seasons in Denver, the Broncos went 10-25-1 against the spread with Cutler as their starter. The numbers have evened out somewhat in Chicago. The Bears have gone 30-37-2 against the spread in his starts.
In comparison, Aaron Rodgers heads into the playoffs at 58-36-1 against the spread. The Packers have covered the spread in 61.7 percent of Rodgers’ starts. That’s better than Joe Montana (115-72 ATS, 61.4 percent).
[Story on other all-time great quarterbacks’ records against the spread]
With a seven-year contract in his pocket, dynamic receiving weapons and an offensive-minded coach, maybe Cutler turns things around in 2014. You can’t go listen to any NFL QB guru mention Cutler without drooling over his arm talent. But that praise only increases expectations, which, in turn, inflates Bears’ point spreads.
Ian Rap0port of NFL Network is reporting Cutler’s deal is worth $126 million over seven years, with $54 million guaranteed.
Playoff Quarterbacks Record Against the Spread
| Quarterback | ATS Win | ATS Loss | Push | Current Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 24 | 10 | 0 | Seattle Seahawks |
| Aaron Rodgers | 58 | 36 | 1 | Green Bay Packers |
| Tom Brady | 122 | 85 | 8 | New England Patriots |
| Peyton Manning | 137 | 115 | 8 | Denver Broncos |
| Drew Brees | 135 | 116 | 14 | New Orleans Saints |
| Colin Kaepernick | 16 | 11 | 1 | San Francisco 49ers |
| Nick Foles | 9 | 7 | 0 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| Philip Rivers | 69 | 62 | 4 | San Diego Chargers |
| Andy Dalton | 25 | 18 | 1 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| Alex Smith | 49 | 42 | 0 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| Andrew Luck | 20 | 12 | 1 | Indianapolis Colts |
| Cam Newton | 22 | 25 | 1 | Carolina Panthers |