We recently used the NFL database at KillerSports.com to research the most common margins of victory in the NFL. We went back to 2002, which resulted in a 2,872-game sample (excluding playoffs)—which encompasses the 11-year period since the NFL realigned.
The tables below represent the findings.
A 3-point gap is, not surprisingly, the most common margin of victory (15.15 percent of the time), while a touchdown is second (9.64 percent). Games end at higher than 14 points about 32 percent of the time.
We’ll try to provide similar charts for college football sometime soon, but those results have been much more difficult to track down.
* * *
MARGIN OF VICTORY BY INDIVIDUAL SEASON
MOV | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 12 |
2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 11 |
3 | 41 | 41 | 47 | 37 | 42 | 41 | 27 | 39 | 47 | 37 | 36 |
4 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 23 | 12 | 16 | 19 | 14 |
5 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 7 |
6 | 17 | 15 | 11 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 19 | 18 |
7 | 29 | 30 | 25 | 16 | 25 | 27 | 25 | 25 | 18 | 31 | 26 |
8 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 11 |
9 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
10 | 14 | 11 | 23 | 18 | 18 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 17 |
11 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 3 |
12 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
13 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 |
14 | 10 | 7 | 19 | 14 | 17 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 13 |
15+ | 81 | 84 | 75 | 79 | 79 | 88 | 90 | 92 | 85 | 84 | 86 |
MOST COMMON NFL MARGINS OF VICTORY, 2002-2012
MOV | TOTAL | PERCENT |
---|---|---|
1 | 101 | 3.52% |
2 | 102 | 3.55% |
3 | 435 | 15.15% |
4 | 148 | 5.15% |
5 | 83 | 2.89% |
6 | 160 | 5.57% |
7 | 277 | 9.64% |
8 | 93 | 3.24% |
9 | 39 | 1.36% |
10 | 174 | 6.06% |
11 | 67 | 2.33% |
12 | 42 | 1.46% |
13 | 90 | 3.13% |
14 | 138 | 4.81% |
15+ | 923 | 32.14% |