Margin of Victory: How often do NFL teams win by 3? What about other key numbers?

We recently used the NFL database at KillerSports.com to research the most common margins of victory in the NFL. We went back to 2002, which resulted in a 2,872-game sample (excluding playoffs)—which encompasses the 11-year period since the NFL realigned.

The tables below represent the findings.

A 3-point gap is, not surprisingly, the most common margin of victory (15.15 percent of the time), while a touchdown is second (9.64 percent). Games end at higher than 14 points about 32 percent of the time.

We’ll try to provide similar charts for college football sometime soon, but those results have been much more difficult to track down.

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MARGIN OF VICTORY BY INDIVIDUAL SEASON

MOV20022003200420052006200720082009201020112012
1991012861089812
212104111181279711
34141473742412739473736
41012917882312161914
577106767610107
61715111516141013121918
72930251625272525183126
81185991031010711
9332344122222
101411231818131616151317
11561278936173
1234272335355
1311118115898865
1410719141713713131213
15+8184757979889092858486

MOST COMMON NFL MARGINS OF VICTORY, 2002-2012

MOVTOTALPERCENT
11013.52%
21023.55%
343515.15%
41485.15%
5832.89%
61605.57%
72779.64%
8933.24%
9391.36%
101746.06%
11672.33%
12421.46%
13903.13%
141384.81%
15+92332.14%