Betting Talk

2018 Baseball plays

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Comments

  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    I bet big favorites everyday! I only care about value in the line, I do not care at all about the fave dog blah blah. I am a firm believer in beating the line!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    I told you guys Severino was a good bet LOL
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 15-10, +4.2u

    953 Marlins/Smith +135

    I'm siding with the Marlins here because of Caleb Smith, who had an encouraging first start vs the Cubs. In 5.1 IP, Smith struck out eight Cubs batters and only allowed 4 hits while generating 15 swings and misses across 100 pitches (15%). The MLB average SwStr Rate is 9.5%. The mark is not a fluke either. During his stay with the Yankees last year, Smith generated a SwStr rate of 13% as well. As a lefty, Smith is also tougher vs RHB than he is vs LHB due to his above average changeup. RHB's OPS marks over the last 2 seasons vs Smith were a paltry .669 and .654. Naturally, most of the Phillies lineup is right handed. On the other side, Nick Pivetta is on the mound coming off an uninspiring performance vs the Braves. He's coming off of a season where he posted a 6.02 ERA in 26 starts and a 2018 spring where he allowed 22 baserunners in 18 IP. Also, it goes without saying that Gabe Kapler's continued quick hooks (Pulled Pivetta at 74 pitches last time) and heavy bullpen usage gives the Marlins an advantage in the later innings.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    951 Mets/deGrom +143

    deGrom has faced the Nationals more then any other team in his career and he shows up big each time. In 12 starts against them, he has a 2.77 ERA with a 11.3 K/9 rate. Last season he faced them 5 times and K'd 10 + batters on 4 occasions. Current Nationals batters have a .208 avg against him with a paltry .618 OPS. Strasburg also has success vs the Mets. In 16 starts, he has a 2.64 ERA with an 11.2 K/9 rate. However, there has been quite a bit of turnover in the Mets lineup from seasons past, and current Mets actually have a solid .333 AVG against with an .854 OPS. This is due to the additions of Adrian Gonzalez and Todd Frazier, both whom have OPS marks over .971 to go along with Cespedes (1.163 OPS), Bruce (.909 OPS), and Cabrera (.840 OPS). The key to this game: While both teams have a handful of batters with solid numbers vs. the SPs, it's actually the Mets lineup that is constructed better to take advantage. My image won't embed, so take my word, but the mets have their high OPS guys all together hitting back to back whereas the Nationals success is more fragmented throughout the lineup. This gives the Mets a greater chance of generating a potentially game winning rally at any point in the game.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    964 Red Sox/Price -245

    David Price gets to face this weak Rays lineup for the second time. Last time he shut them out across 7 IP while only allowing 4 hits on 76 pitches, 72% of which were strikes. On the mound for the Rays is Yonny Chirinos who is pitching on 3 days rest after going 4 IP against these same Red Sox last time out. Chirinos did pitch well in that game but he was quite wild. The Rays bullpen is also taxed after two beatdowns by the Yankees caused them to burn both Andriese and Pruitt in multi inning appearances. Yarbrough and Kittredge are the primaries left in this long man/piggyback #4 and #5 SP rotation, and the Red Sox got plenty of baserunners against both in the opening series. With the potential for an inefficient start, no quality back up, a weather worn TB team, and a Red Sox team coming off a scheduled off day, this is worth a bet.

    One more likely to come later ...
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    957 Reds/Bailey +125

    After getting stymied by Nationals pitching the 1st series of the season and then failing to capitalize on their 10 RISP opportunities vs Chatwood, the Reds finally get what seems to be the easiest SP matchup so far this season in LHP Steven Brault. There is only 18 PA worth of BvP data but in that small sample size, Votto, Suarez, and Gennett are 5 for 10 with 2 doubles. On the other side Bailey is coming off an excellent 6 IP, 1 ER start vs the Nats. In 110 PAs, current Pirates have a .267 AVG against him with a .773 OPS. The key here is that most of this damage came from David Freese (.995) who is no longer a starter this late in his career and Starling Marte (.970 OPS) who also has a 33% k rate against him and was 0 for 3 last season after returning from his steroid suspension.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    you dont track CLV?
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    you dont track CLV?

    I won't be tracking it in this thread. Plays, brief writeup, and daily record is all I'll have.

    Will try to make a periodic effort to provide a CLV update but no promises.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 17-12, +4.63u

    918 Astros/McCullers -275

    Essentially 0 BvP data on either side. The only stats available is that Hosmer, Headley, and AJ Ellis are a combined 2 for 19 (.105 AVG) against Lance McCullers. He is also coming off a 5+ IP performance where he struck out 10 batters against the Texas Rangers; an offense that is far superior to the Padres, especially with Wil Myers on the DL. For the Padres, Luis Perdomo is on the mound. In his 2 year career thus far, he has shown very little swing and miss stuff which will be a major problem against this high powered Astros offense. Against "finesse" style SPs (those who generate K's in the lower 1/3rd of the MLB), McCann, Altuve, Correa, and Reddick all have OPS marks above .800. Lastly, due to the threat of rain in the Houston area, the roof at Minute Maid Park will likely be closed which will improve the pitching situation.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    905 Cubs/Hendricks -135

    Kyle Hendricks has faced these Brewers quite a bit in his career and has good BvP stats against them. In 146 Plate Appearances, current Brewers have a combined .206 AVG against him with a .586 OPS. In fact, outside of Travis Shaw (4 for 12 w/ 2 HR), no Brewers players has an OPS mark above .708 against Hendricks. One could argue that the additions of Yelich and Cain should improve these numbers, but both of them have seen Hendricks as well and are a combined 2 for 16 with 0 XBH. For the Brewers, Brandon Woodruff will be moving from the bullpen to the rotation to make his 1st start of the season. While his stuff is decent, Woodruff has had trouble missing bats so far in his young MLB career. There are also other factors that should be taken into account for today's game. A) Woodruff is operating on 3 days rest after making a relief appearance on Monday. B) Woodruff is only 1 week removed from getting drilled in the hip TWICE by back to back comebackers. C) After losing Corey Knebel to a nasty looking injury last night, the entire Brewers bullpen needs to be re-shuffled. With Barnes and Jennings also likely to be unavailable today it could be a few days before they re-settle.

    Unlikely to be any additional adds. Good luck.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 17-14, +0.53

    952 Nationals/Gonzalez -160

    Steven Matz continues to be the biggest question mark in the Mets rotation after getting knocked out after only 4 IP against the Cardinals last time out. While he has good BvP stats vs the Nationals in the past (.185 AVG, .524 OPS in 69 PA) he still has not shown full acclimation to his transposed ulnar nerve. (FWIW, Jacob deGrom dealt with the same thing last season and was very up and down before finally settling in during the month of May). The real key to this game comes down to Gio Gonzalez. He has a long history of facing the Mets and usually dominates them. In 184 PA, current Mets have a .226 AVG with a .669 OPS. The only Met with even a modicum of success against him is Yeonis Cespedes (1.677 OPS) as everyone else is below a .628 OPS. In fact over his last 11 starts, Gonzalez has held the Mets to 2 runs or less on 10 occasions. That's some solid consistency.

    972 Twins/Berrios -158

    Not much BvP data on either side as Berrios and Leake have only about 20 plate appearances against batters on both sides. I am going to side with Berrios here though based on what we saw in his complete game shutout last week against the Baltimore Orioles. In that game according to Pitch F/X, Berrios' fastball cracked 6" of horizontal movement. That mark is significant for him as its the 9th time he has done it in his career. In those 9 games, Berrios has a 7-1 record with a 8.0 K/9 rate. Within those games includes (5) 7.0+ IP performances and (2) 10+ K performances. While it is just 1 start, it is part of a continuing trend from spring training where scouts raved about additional "life" on his fastball. Berrios could be poised for an incredibly good season.

    960 Phillies/Velasquez -149

    The Marlins lost Garrett Cooper to injury, Lewis Brinson and Justin Bour are struggling, and Realmuto, Prado, and Riddle are on the DL. This is a team that has no offense right now going up against a guy who probably has as good of "stuff" as most elite pitchers in baseball in Vincent Velasquez. When Velasquez is locating his fastball, he is a guy who racks up a large number of swings and misses/strikeouts. On the Marlins side Dillon Peters makes his 2nd start of the season. While he performed well against the Cubs last time out, BABIP luck was on his side. In that 6 IP performance, Peters only K'd 2 batters while only generating 5 total swing and misses and allowed eight line drives. Don't let the ERA fool you, the Cubs hit him hard last time out and he was lucky to walk away with 0 ER.

    980 Astros/Cole -260

    Despite last night's win, the fact still remains that this Padres offense is severely challenged with Wil Myers on the DL. Bryan Mitchell will be on the mound today for the Padres and as expected, this experiment of using him as a SP continues to not go well in the later innings. He got tagged for 5 ER last time out and was only able to last 5 IP against the Rockies. With Brad Hand likely unavailable after pitching back to back days, the Padres are going to need to dip into the weak back end of their bullpen for innings today.

    965 Orioles/Tillman +205

    I usually would not side with Tillman here, but the Yankees sustained a large number of injuries over the past few days and are using a lineup that resembles something they would use in spring training. Tyler Austin, Andjuar, Jace Peterson, Austin Romine, and Ronald Torreyes is probably not how the Yankees would envisioned following Judge/Stanton in the lineup. On top of this, Sonny Gray is on the mound for the Yankees and current Orioles have strong BvP stats against him. In 108 PA against, they have a .333 AVG with a .916 OPS. Gray has also struggled mightily in Yankee Stadium with a 2-3 record and career ERA of 5.30 there.
  • kcburghkcburgh Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    the end to that Astro's game was crazy..never saw a game end like that.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 19-17, -1.65 u

    917 Tampa Bay/Kittredge +183

    Yesterday was a disaster for the Rays and yet they still walk into today's game fully capable of pulling off their "bullpening" start thanks to the omen's work by Andrew Pruitt. Kittredge has faced the Red Sox on 2 occasions already this season and has held them to a .200 AVG with a .750 OPS. On the other side will be lefty Eduardo Rodriguez who is coming off right knee ligament reconstruction surgery and did not get any Spring Training work. He will likely not go much further than 4 IP today considering he only made 1 minor league tune-up start before getting called up. There is a very high possibility that he is not ready for MLB work.

    920 Indians/Clevinger -210

    This Kansas City offense is struggling mightily right now having scored only 5 runs in their last 4 games and an MLB low 15 runs in their 6 games so far this season. They will be facing Mike Clevinger today who has had excellent success against them in a limited sample size. Across 37 PA, current Royals have a .152 AVG with a .486 OPS which includes 0 Royals players with an OPS mark over .722. For the Royals, Jason Hammel is on the mound and the Indians have had quite a bit of success against him. In 135 PA, current Indians have a .264 AVG with a .848 OPS. Most of the Indians lineup has destroyed Hammel in the past. Encarnacion, Kipnis, Zimmer, Davis, Perez and Lindor all have OPS marks above 1.000.

    904 Phillies/Arrieta -180

    The Marlins are bad. On top of a weak offense and lackluster SP, now they have to deal with an exhausted bullpen that had to cover 6 innings yesterday. Today Trevor Richards is on the mound for the Marlins as he continues to try and make the huge jump from AA to the MLB. The attempt did not work out too well last time out as he gave up 5 ER on 8 hits in only 4 IP. On the other side, Arrieta makes his debut for the Phillies and he should be able to go a full 100% today after the Phillies did the prudent thing and kept him in Extended Spring Training to continue to build up his pitch count.

    922 White Sox/Lopez -165

    Eno Sarris of Fangraphs did a live chat the other day and one of the topics brought up was the development of Reynaldo Lopez. Prior to this spring the prevailing thought was that Lopez's velocity was too low to offset his "merely average" spin rate on the fastball. However, he has added 3 mph to the pitch and scouts now rate it as a plus pitch that will be an effective weapon that when combined with his solid breaking pitches should generate solid K rates "I must admit....I was wrong about him" - Eno Sarris. Today he faces a Tigers offense that has been up and down and currently ranks 20th in runs scored. For the Tigers, they are using Mike Fiers who has not posted a quality start since July of last season. Even during spring training he was not very good, posting back to back 5 ER starts to end camp. The White Sox should be able to jump on him quickly.

    926 Rangers/Hamels +105

    Hamels' velocity is down, but his K rate is up. Why? Well you can attribute it to Hamels reinvention of himself. He is now switched from using his Fastball 50% of the time to using his cutter more often. This has resulted in a much lower hard hit contact rate, better outcomes vs RHP, and a lower batting average against. In 2017, Hamels allowed a .244 AVG against vs his FB and a .286 AVG vs his sinker....but his cutter generated a .188 AVG. It's a better pitch for this stage of his career and so far its producing positive results. Today he faces a Blue Jays team that has had mixed success against him. Current Blue Jays have a .274 AVG but with only a .727 OPS in 68 plate appearances. Outside of Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales (who only have 12 PA) no Blue Jays player has an OPS mark above .760.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 20-21, -6.1 u
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    968: Orioles/Bundy -110

    The Orioles offense is starting to come alive having scored 23 runs in the last 4 days in the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium. Now they get to come home and start a new series against the Orioles with their ace on the mound against the Blue Jays. In 52 Plate Appearances, current Blue Jays have a .216 AVG with a .505 OPS against Bundy. It also helps that Bundy is coming off back to back solid starts against the Twins and Astros where his swinging strike rate averaged 17%. The Blue Jays will have J.A. Happ on the mound for them coming off of 2 "meh" starts at home and with a unfavorable history against the Orioles. In 195 PA, current Orioles have a .271 AVG with a .799 OPS against Happ. Most notably, Machado, Davis, Beckham, and Alvarez all have OPS marks above .800 against him.

    959 Mets/Syndergaard -190

    The Mets are riding high after a sweep of the Washington Nationals and will now get to deploy Thor, deGrom, and Wheeler over the next 3 days against the pitiful Marlins offense. Unfortunately for the Marlins, they get a Syndergaard who's racked up 17 K's over the first 10 IP.....and hasn't even been pitching all that well yet. Getting back into the warmer, more humid weather of Miami should help Syndergaard sort himself out on the mound.

    965 Tigers/Liriano +236

    Same story, different day with Liriano. Even when he was bad, Liriano still dominated LHB. Today he faces an Indians team that is naturally lefty heavy. Most of the Indians haven't seen much of Liriano either. In 85 PA, current Indians have a .312 AVG with a .896 OPS. However, almost half of those PA's come from Rajai Davis (.353 AVG, 1.007 OPS). All other players have a much more manageable .279 AVG with a .789 OPS. For the Indians, Corey Kluber is on the mound for them but with an extensive history of unfavorable results against the Indians. In his career he has made 21 starts against them and has a career record of 8-7 with a 3.97 ERA. With 187 PA's, current Tigers have a .310 AVG against him with a .870 OPS. The ole veterans Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez in particular have had excellent success. Miggy has a .404 AVG with a 1.215 OPS and Martinez has a .326 AVG with a .918 OPS against Kluber in their careers.

    962 Rockies/Gray -177

    In order to be successful in Coors Field, you need to be able to strike guys out. Jon Gray can do that, Clayton Richard cannot. Gray has already had success against this Wil Myers-less Padres team, holding them to a .215 AVG with a .687 OPS across 70 plate appearances; while Richard has a poor history against this Colorado team. In 207 PA, current Rockies have a .337 AVG with a .893 OPS against him. This is primarily due to the fact that Richard struggles mightily against RHB. In his career, RHB have an OPS mark that is just under 200 basis points higher than LHB. The Rockies top RHB—Arenado, Story, LeMathieu, Desmond, and Iannetta—all have OPS marks above .817 against Richard.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 21-24, -8.97 u
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    905 Mets/deGrom -188

    deGrom is up today against this pitiful Marlins offense after Syndergaard (who still isn't pitching at top form yet) held them to only 1 ER in 6 IP. In 70 plate appearances, current Marlins have a .254 AVG with a .646 OPS. The only positive damage comes from Justin Bour (.500 AVG, 1.405 OPS) who's in a severe slump (6 for 37, .182 AVG) to start the season. For the Marlins, Caleb Smith will be on the mound coming off of a start where, despite still maintaining his high Swinging Strike Rate, displayed his propensity for walking batters with 6 BBs in 3 IP last time out. Against a patient team like the Mets who currently rank 4th overall in BBs taken, this could be another inefficient day for Smith.

    927 Oakland/Manaea +114

    Pretty much 0 BvP data on either side, but the Dodgers are really struggling this season against LHP and they haven't even faced any good LHSPs yet this season. So far in 2018, they have a .188 AVG with a .538 OPS thanks to the likes of Ty Blach twice and Patrick Corbin (ok...he's not bad). Today they face off against Sean Manaea who is arguably better than both of those guys and is coming off of 2 really good starts against 2 division rivals in the Angels and Texas Rangers. On the flip side, the Dodgers have arguably their most inconsistent SP on the mound today in Hyun Jin Ryu. Ryu was wildly ineffective last time out against the D'backs allowing 3 ER on 5 hits, 5 BBs, and only generating 2 Swings and Misses out of 75 pitches. Recent Trends also indicate that the Dodgers will likely bench their young power hitting 1B Cody Bellinger against Manaea as he has been bench against the last two games vs LHP.

    921 Angels/Skaggs -140

    The BvP data is pretty unfavorable on both sides here. Against Skaggs in 88 PA, current Rangers have a .316 AVG with a .922 OPS. Against Martin Perez in 159 PA, current Angels have a .309 AVG with a .865 OPS. Recency bias though has me siding with Skaggs heavily here. While inefficient, Skaggs has pitched well so far this season against the A's and Indians allowing only 2 ER in 11 IP with a 13% Swinging Strike Rate. Martin Perez on the other hand is still trying to round into form after returning from off-season elbow surgery. He displayed some really troubling signs his 1st time out against the A's. In 5 IP, he allowed only 3 ER but on 10 hits with only 1 K. Not only was he hittable, he didn't miss a single bat. That's right....he threw 76 pitches and generated 0 Swings and Misses. The Athletics are not a very good "putting the bat on the ball" type of team either as they rely more on HRs than most teams. Martin will not be so lucky without swings and misses against the Angels who have the 2nd highest batting AVG and the 4th lowest K rate in the MLB so far this season.

    915 Tigers/Boyd +166

    Josh Tomlin is not a good enough SP to warrant such a favorable line in the Indians favor considering the BvP stats that are available AND the fact that he is trying to push through a back injury. In 130 PA, current Tigers have a .308 AVG with a .899 OPS against him. The starting lineup for the Tigers could very well have 6 batters with OPS against him that are over the .897 mark. On the other side, LHP Matt Boyd is on the mound for the Tigers. With 87 PA against him, current Indians have a.250 AVG with a .664 OPS. Outside of Lindor (who's in a slump) and Brantley (who's coming back from injury), no Indians player has an OPS mark above .650 against Boyd. This goes along with the fact that the Indians have not been very good against LHP so far this season having hit only .179 with a .579 OPS against southpaws.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 23-26, -8.97 u

    Plays likely later than usual today ...
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    957 D-backs/Ray -110

    Unless your name is Buster Posey or Joe Panik (or Andrew McCutchen in extra innings only), you're not hitting very well right now if you're a San Francisco Giant. Today they have to face the strikeout machine that is Robbie Ray. In 139 PA against him, current Giants have a .271 AVG with a .780 OPS. Most of that damage comes from Hunter Pence (.538 AVG, 1.359 OPS) who's in a deep slump to start the season. For the Giants, LHP Andrew Suarez will be making his MLB debut in place of the injured Johnny Cueto. No D-backs players have ever faced Suarez, but the team is one of the best offensive groups against LHP so far this season with a .804 OPS thus far.

    975 Yankees/Tanaka +103

    After yesterday's debacle, the Yankees find themselves in a much more favorable BvP situation in today's matchup between Price and Tanaka. In 198 Plate Appearances against Tanaka, current Red Sox have a .234 AVG with a .667 OPS with JD Martinez being the only player with an OPS mark above .800. In 151 PA against Price, current Yankees have a .336 AVG with a .920 OPS. One could argue that David Price has been pitching much better lately, however, his two impressive starts thus far have been against the Rays poor offense. In addition, when looking at the pitch detail from those games, Price only generated 6 and 9 swings and misses in those games, or a 9% swinging strike rate. That's not a "terrible" mark, but its one that isn't high enough to avoid potential damage from the Yankees big bats.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 25-26, -6.94u

    902 Cubs/Hendricks -182

    It's about time the Cubs offense decided to wake up. Even with Rizzo on the shelf, the Cubs have broken out 18 runs in the last 2 games against the Pirates. Today they should be able to score some more with Trevor Williams on the mound for the Pirates. Williams has been quite lucky far to have the ERA he has. In his 2 games pitched so far, he has allowed 16 base-runners in 11.2 IP and has only generated 8 swings and misses across the 46 batters he has faced thus far (5% Swinging Strike Rate). Cubs batters have owned Williams in the past too. Having faced the Cubs on 5 occasions last season, Williams allowed 29 base-runners in only 19 IP.

    903 Cardinals/Wacha -140

    Wacha is off to a pretty shaky start this season so this match-up comes at a perfect time for him. In his career against the Cincinnati Reds, Wacha is 8-1 with a 2.85 ERA in 14 starts. Current Reds have a .273 AVG with a .743 OPS, however, pretty much all of the damage comes from just Joey Votto (.382 AVG, 1.097 OPS). All other Reds hitters are hitting .239 AVG against him with a paltry .594 OPS. With Schebler and Suarez on the Disabled List, and pretty much everyone else struggling offensively.....this is a nice easy matchup for Wacha to right the ship. For the Reds, Sal Romano is on the mound for them coming off of two lackluster performances. None of the current Cardinals have ever faced him before, but considering his lack of quality stuff, a high career BB rate, and a swinging strike rate thus far that is well below the MLB average, their offense should be able to generate traffic on the basepaths.

    914 Twins/Berrios -170

    Credit to the Mariners for the performance they had against Berrios last week.....but a combined 6 inches is what separated a good performance from a bad performance for him thanks to the Seager HR that clanked off the foul pole and a 2 RBI ground ball single that just got past Eduardo Escobar. Outside of those two things, Berrios's stuff was filthy again posting high movement marks as I outlined last time. Today he gets to face one of the coldest teams in the MLB right now in the White Sox who have lost 5 of their last 6 games and 7 of their last 9. He also has solid history against this White Sox team as current CWS players have only a .132 AVG with a .419 OPS against him in 75 Plate Appearances. He matches up against Lucas Giolito whose prior control issues in the minor leagues have popped up again to start this season. In his 2 starts against the Tigers and Royals, Giolito has walked 7 batters in 11.2 IP, plus, has only generated a 54% strikes thrown rate....one of the lowest in baseball.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 27-27, -6.76u

    970 Red Sox/Rodriguez -207

    Tillman has not won a game since May 7th, 2017 and is currently on a 25 game winless streak with the Orioles. The team itself is 7-18 in those 25 starts he has made. Across that time-frame, Tillman has only posted 2 Quality starts and has only reach 6.0 IP on 3 occasions. I knew he was bad but that is staggeringly bad. It certainly doesn't help that Tillman is struggling with his command (54% strike rate so far this season) and is not generating swings and misses. (5% SwStr Rate). For the Red Sox, Eduardo Rodriguez is on the mound for his 2nd start of the season. While the stats dont show it I was pleasantly surprised how well he threw the ball last time out against the Rays in his 1st start off of knee surgery. While inefficient, he did rack up 7 Ks and posted a 13% SwStr Rate. It helps that he has excellent BvP stats against current Orioles hitters as they have a .231 AVG with a .725 OPS against him across 147 Plate Appearances.

    965 Yankees/Montgomery -170

    Fiers pitched really well last time out but as we've seen that White Sox team is not very good. He has to face a Yankees team today whose offense has been woke up while they were in Boston. With his fastball velocity down to 88mph and his flyball oriented batted ball profile (38% Flyball, 23% Line Drive, 39% Groundball) this is a REALLY unfavorable matchup for him. For the Yankees, Jordan Montgomery is on the mound facing the Tigers for the 1st time in his career. With the Tigers veterans, Miguel Cabrera (.227 AVG) and Victor Martinez (.235 AVG) struggling to produce right now, it's dragging the entire lineup down producing the 2nd worst offensive numbers in the MLB right now.

    953 Cardinals/Weaver -150

    Even though he had a really good start against the Cubs, I still don't fully trust that Tyler Mahle is a MLB ready SP. He's still pretty much a 2 pitch (fastball/changeup) guy as his slider does not have the 2-plane movement depth that you would expect from MLB caliber guys. This limitation got exposed his last time out against the Pirates as he threw 26 sliders but only generated 2 swings and misses against the pitch. The Bucs tattooed him for 5 ER on 9 hits (2 HR) and 1 BB with only 2 Ks. For the Cardinals, Luke Weaver is on the mound coming off of 2 good starts against the Mets and Diamondbacks, teams with superior offenses to the Reds. With Eugenio Suarez and Scott Schebler still on the DL, this Reds team just doesn't have the offense to compete right now.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Adding ...

    968 Indians/Clevinger -131
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 30-28, -5.07

    No write-ups today or tomorrow.

    902 Nationals/Scherzer -188

    907 Pirates/Tallion -157

    915 Orioles/Cobb +143

    926 Junis/Royals +152
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Adding ...

    903 Cardinals/Mikolas -125
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 33-30, -4.07u

    954 Marlins/Urena +127

    973 Angels/Ohtani -212

    959 Braves/Teheran +161

    951 Cardinals/Martinez -162
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 34-31, -4.07u

    905 Phillies/Nola -126

    There is one guy who hates this Braves ballpark, and that's Julio Teheran. Since it opened in 2017, Teheran has a 3-10 record with a 6.20 ERA and 21 HRs allowed in only 19 starts at the ballpark. Today, fly ball oriented RHP has to pitch in SunTrust vs a hot Phillies offense WITH the wind blowing out to CF between 15-20 mph. On the flip side, Aaron Nola will be protected from the high winds due to his ground-ball oriented batted ball profile (51.0% GB, 29.3% FB, 19.7% LD).

    919 White Sox/Lopez +130

    Last time I mentioned Lopez (on 4/8) I referenced his increased FB velocity as a barometer of future success for him. Well during that start he also relied heavily on a new slider that he developed over the off-season throwing it 35% of the time in that start. The pitch generated a superb 15.6% SwStr rate which beefed up his overall whiff rate to 12.1% in that start (9.5% is the MLB average). Today he faces an Oakland lineup that ranks in top 1/3rd of the MLB in strikeouts so far this season. On the other side, Daniel Mengden will be on the mound with 3 non-quality starts under his belt already. With winds blowing out to RCF between 15-20mph and a batted ball profile that leans heavily towards the balls in the air (38.8% GB, 37.6% FB, 23.6% LD), Mengden will once again be at risk for another non quality start.

    904 Mets/deGrom -167

    AJ Cole is finally out of the rotation and Jeremy Hellickson is in. While this certainly ends up being an upgrade for the Nationals rotation, Hellickson will be making his season debut in an unfavorable situation. Current Mets batters have a .276 AVG with a .864 OPS against in 159 Plate Appearances during his career. Specifically, Yeonis Cespedes has done some major damage against Hellickson (.316 AVG, 1.199 OPS) with 3 HRs and 6 RBIs in 19 PA against him. For the Mets, their ace Jacob deGrom is on the mound and as we have already touched on....he has excellent BvP stats vs these Nationals. In 166 PA, current Nats hitters have a paltry .199 AVG with a .597 OPS. The numbers are even worse if you work around Bryce Harper, who has a .346 AVG with a 1.007 OPS. Despite Harper's success, no one can get on base in front of him as he has only 1 RBI thanks to 1 HR in his 32 plate appearances.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    Adding...

    Rockies/Marquez +120
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 35-34, -6.8u
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    982 Blue Jays/Garcia -205

    Two lefties on the mound in this game with very little to 0 BvP data to account for on either side. For the Royals, rookie Eric Skoglund will make his 2nd start after getting obliterated by Mariners his last time out. So far in his short career, he has not shown an ability to miss bats or provide quality innings. Across 6 starts between 2017-18, Skoglund has only generated a 6% Swinging Strike Rate (MLB AVG= 9.5%) and has only provided 1 Quality Start. His other 5 starts, he was out of the game before even completing 5 IP. For the Blue Jays, Jaime Garcia will be on the mound and he is about as average as they come. However, this KC team is not hitting at all so far this season and 2 of their best hitters (Moustakas, Duda) struggle severely vs LHP.

    980 Yankees/Tanaka -300

    High Winds blowing out to dead CF in New York will make for a power filled day, however Tanaka is the perfect pitcher to have on the mound for this occasion. With a GB leaning batted ball profile (48% GB, 32% FB, 20% LD) and a Marlins team that is tied for last in the MLB for Extra Base hits, Tanaka should have no trouble keeping the ball in the park. For the Marlins, Jarlin Garcia has a much tougher task, this Yankees offense is starting to really heat up and is currently 2nd in the MLB for extra base hits. Garcia's batted ball profile (minor leagues included) is more even than Tanaka's (43% GB, 39% FB, 18% LD) and doesn't come with the strike out stuff that Tanaka has (Tanaka; 26% K rate, Garcia: 19%).

    951 Rockies/Bettis +132

    I said it before and I'll say it again, Trevor Williams is not as good of a SP as his stats have shown thus far. He doesn't strike guys out (5.2 K/9), he doesn't have the good quality pitches that miss bats (5% SwStr Rate), he's been quite fortunate with runners on base (92% strand rate). Today he's facing a Rockies team that seems to have figured out a more favorable lineup configuration that takes advantage of LeMathieu's "Bat to Ball" skills and Blackmon's continued shift away from speed to power. Since moving to the #3 hole, Blackmon is 5 for 12 with 4 runs scored, 3 HRs, and 7 RBIs. Since moving to the leadoff spot, LeMathieu is hitting .310 with a 1.057 OPS.

    976 Angels/Ohtani -165

    This bet has nothing to do with Ohtani and everything to do with David Price coming off a start where he complained about numbness in his pitching hand. Numbness....that's a scary thing to have when you already have an injury history. To make matters worse, the Red Sox didn't even do the prudent thing and send him for an MRI. Regardless...lets say he is fine....this is still the same David Price that is running roughly average SwStr rates (9%) with reduced velocity and reduced movement on his fastball. Against an Angels team that is currently 1st in the MLB in HRs, 1st in Runs Scored, and 3rd in total extra base hits, David Price will have his work cut out for him.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited April 2018
    YTD: 37-36, -9.13u
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