Betting Talk

Running thread of my MLB Plays, good luck to all

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  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Record: 143-152 -5.23
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Not my day. Mariners put 9 guys on base over 9 innings and managed to score 7 of them. Braves have managed to score 8 out of 13. Other 2 sides in the unders have 1 combined run but it wasn't meant to be.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Leans: Orioles +105, Yankees -137, Tigers/Red Sox u9.5

    Rockies/Reds o8.5 -113

    This one feels a bit square to me as it's set way lower than I figured, but I'll still roll the dice. Gray is a much better pitcher than his stats indicate but the Reds are hitting really well lately and generally put up runs at home. It wouldn't necessarily surprise me if Gray figures it out and pitches a nice game but even then the Rockies' pen has been a mess lately. Romano has been rushed to the Majors before he is ready and gives up runs in almost every start. Colorado is hitting really well now that their lineup is finally healthy and Cincinnati has a below average bullpen. Both offenses hitting, both pitcher's exploitable, both bullpens shaky... almost have to try the over at only 8.5 with those conditions. Even if Gray dominates I think the pens have a solid chance to get us there.

    Tigers +190

    Hopefully Candelario plays but even if he sits the Tigers still have a chance here. I've said it a million times already and won some nice money on them but Detroit simply mashes lefties. Candelrio is iffy after leaving last night's game and is a real good southpaw killer but Detroit's lineup was made to hurt lefties and there is plenty of firepower left if he takes the day off. Rodriguez got hit by the Tigers last year and they should be able to put up some runs against today. Hardy for the Tigers has been pitching very well and the Red Sox are not good against lefties. They are also down Mookie and Pedroia which takes away some of the only guys in the lineup who can hit southpaws. This line is about 50 cents off where I think it should be.

    More coming after breakfast.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Leans: Phillies +124

    Phillies/Cubs u7.5 -117

    Phillies aren't hitting much since Hoskins went down. He's only average vs. lefties but the rest of the Phillies don't hit lefties at all either way. Quintana has been alternating between good and bad starts and this sets up as a bad one but I'm not overly worried. Philly's offense is just cold and they can't hit lefties even when they are hitting well. Nola is a stud and Chicago's offense may be a bit overrated currently. Their final game stats look very nice over the last couple weeks but they are doing a massive percentage of their damage against trash bullpens after struggling to hit starters. Philadelphia has an above average pen and Chicago's is maybe a tick better than above average so I don't think you'll see a bunch of late runs here. Someone wins 3-2. Lean Phillies as well but just can't trust the offense to give Nola run support right now.

    White Sox +161

    Hector Santiago can't really be trusted to get outs most days but this matchup sets up pretty well for him. The Twins are below average on the year against lefties and are without Mauer and Buxton who are 2 of their better hitters vs. southpaws. Minnesota's offense is still capable but they aren't at full strength and should be considered well below average vs. lefties for the time being. Santiago might lose his control and give up a million runs but at these odds I'll take the chance. Odorizzi is an average pitcher who had some trouble with Chicago's lineup earlier this year. The White Sox now have Davidson's bat back in the mix and are hitting pretty well of late. The big thing that swayed me on this is that Minnesota's pen simply cannot be trusted and Odorizzi doesn't go deep in games. That alone should give us a chance.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    @HunterAtkins35

    Dallas Keuchel suggested he might be tipping his pitches, particularly based off Kyle Seager’s oppo HR. “There’s no way seven runs are on the board with the way I felt.”
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Record: 145-154 -4.79
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Leans: Reds +100, White Sox +193, Orioles +145, Astros/Rangers u9 -115

    No total on the Cubs/Phillies game yet but have a feeling I'll be on the over. Wind is blowing in at 10 MPH which will keep the ball in the park but neither of these starters give up HRs so it's not much of an under boost. Control is their downfall and I think runs will be scored. What I'm hoping for is that bettors overvalue the Wrigley wind in this matchup and give me a total of 8 or better at decent odds. We shall see.


    Orioles/Jays u9.5 +100

    Neither of these pitchers are that good but I still have to try the under. The Jays aren't doing a ton of hitting and are without Donaldson. Hess isn't ready for this level but I kinda just feel like Toronto isn't hitting well enough to put up a ton of runs. They'll probably score 3 or 4 off of him over 5 innings which is really all we need here. FWIW Hess has been tough to hit the first time teams have seen him which works in our favor. The main reason I like this bet is because Baltimore can't hit lefties and is hitting poorly overall lately. They are back to swinging at everything, striking out a ton, not drawing walks, and barely getting hits. They just made Jason Vargas look good which is quite the accomplishment. Garcia has had the shoulder issues this year but is still capable of putting in quality innings in the right situation and this seems like the right situation. Baltimore's offense just looks lost. Baltimore relies on the long ball and Garcia has done a good job of limiting those lately. Both bullpens here are solid. 9.5 at even money just seems like a pretty good deal here despite how much I don't like the starters. Jays win 4-3.

    Tigers +158

    Tigers hurt lefties, Boston has a young lefty making his MLB debut. I actually like Meeks quite a bit and think he'll eventually be a solid MLB pitcher but he's also a guy that has had trouble initially when going up a level. Detroit is not the team you want to face in your debut here. The Red Sox don't hit lefties well and Boyd is a favorite of mine. His peripherals are a bit scary but I also think he's a guy with ace potential. It might not be the cleanest game ever but Boston's lineup isn't as scary without Betts and Pedroia and I think he can give us a real shot. Detroit's pen has been surprisingly sturdy and this one won't be easy for Boston. Would have had the u9.5 as at least a lean here if the wind wasn't blowing out at 15 MPH. Luckily for us Boyd rarely gives up HRs so I think we'll be okay on the side.

    Rangers +170

    I'm a huge fan of Cole and he should do well enough but he's facing a tough lineup here. Beltre is back and the Rangers are finally healthy, but beyond that Texas is just hitting pretty well lately. The weather won't be nearly as nice as when Cole came into Texas earlier this year. Hamels is still an above average pitcher and he's dominated the Astros twice this season and more often than not over the past 2 years. He's one of the few pitchers in baseball that I trust to pitch in this over park as he's proven he can do it well for years. Ultimately this one won't be easy but Hamels should give us a chance and the odds are way off. Big lean to the under here as well. Wind coming in at 13MPH but not sure how well it will stop the ball from carrying. Ultimately I missed the line move so passing.

    Something is up with the Oakland line. Seems to have been pulled off screen. Was going to hit the o8.5 for sure and was thinking about Athletics on the RL as well. The matchup I was looking at was Hammel/Montas. Maybe one of them got pulled. Not sure. It's late, will check in the AM.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Someone else had the same idea that I had with the Cubs over and got to it before me. Didn't last at 7.5 for long and now sits at o8 -130 which isn't anything I want to mess with.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Record: 147-155 -3.21
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Leans: Giants/Nats u7.5 -110, Giants +180, Cards -120, Yankees/Mets o7 -115,

    Orioles/Jays u9 -125

    Line isn't as nice as the u9.5 +100 or whatever I won on last night but it's still worth taking. The Orioles can't hit much of anything lately but are even worse against lefties. Happ has dominated them for years. I do think Happ is falling off a little bit as age catches up but he's still an above average lefty and it doesn't take much for a lefty to put in quality innings against Baltimore. Then you have Cashner for the Orioles who is probably a below average pitcher at this stage. That being said, the Jays don't have Donaldson and aren't hitting much lately. It's tough to trust Cashner (he's one of those guys that always screws me) but he has been an ace against the Blue Jays over the last 2 years, including dominating them over 7 innings earlier in the year. Toronto's bullpen is struggling a bit but I still consider both pens to be about MLB average. Ultimately 9 is too high. Jays win 4-2. Figured I'd be on Jays' ML but after seeing the odds I surprisingly kinda lean on Baltimore ML. Ultimately my faith level on Cashner is limited to 1-unit of total risk.

    Tigers +149

    I try to stay away from taking the Tigers when they are facing a righty but feel I have to take a shot here. Bauer should pitch really well against Detroit as he's done twice this year already but it's the stinky Cleveland bullpen that made his bet worth taking. They simply can't be trusted to get outs. Fulmer has been a big disappointment for the Tigers but he's also faced a pretty tough schedule of opponents so his stats might look worse than they are. He's talented but doesn't seem to be in good form. Luckily for him the Indians aren't hitting all that well lately, and Detroit's bullpen has been pretty solid this year. I don't think Detroit has a lead when the starters leave but the home team at 3/2 odds has a good chance to score late on Cleveland's pen and that makes this worth a shot. If Fulmer finally pitches up to his talent level than we're in an even better place than I'm planning on.

    Will finish card after breakfast.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Leans: Red Sox -1.5 -150, Royals/A's o7.5 -107, Dodgers -1.5 +120

    Twins +110

    I had Minnesota as a small favorite here so will try it. Both teams are without some parts of their lineup, Twins without Mauer and Bruxton, Angels without Ohtani, Simmons, and Calhoun. Richards is a very good pitcher but he's facing a Twins team that is hitting pretty well despite missing 2 pieces. Angels are hitting okay but not as well as the Twins and Lynn seems to have finally figured out his issues after his late start to the year and subsequent poor outings. Wind blowing in which doesn't help either team much as neither starter gives up the long ball. Twins' pen is sketchy but the Angels' pen has been nearly as bad. Ultimately this seems like a tossup on a neutral field but the Twins at home you have to try at +110.

    DBacks -106

    I try to resist playing sides at Coors but feel this one is worth a shot. Greinke is pitching well and has a pretty good history of pitching well at Coors. Colorado is hitting nicely once they got LeMahieu back from the DL but they have also been facing a bunch of very hittable starters so the offense might not be as scorching hot as they appear. I think Greinke can put in a decent enough start and hopefully that's all we need. Marquez for the Rockies has been pitching better lately but I don't trust him yet. His WHIP continues to sit at around 1.50 and he's had some trouble pitching at home this year. Arizona's offense has also been facing some poor pitchers lately but I think they can get some runs on Marquez. Ultimately what sold me on this bet is that Arizona's pen has been pretty good of late and Colorado's is really struggling. I think Arizona should have a small lead when the starters leave and we'll just hope the Arizona pen can match Colorado's at that point. At only -106 with the better starter and pen I feel it's worth a roll of the dice.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Hey Jake, I am curious if you liked the Dbacks at -106 why did you not take them earlier this AM or last night I think they were as high as +109 or something, I know you know but that much difference in the line is a huge difference as good as you are doing with only down a couple units after 200 or so games that little difference would for sure put you in the positive by just buying at the best price on games you like. do you agree or are you doing something different?
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Mets put Familia on DL, pretty much their only reliever that is pitching well...
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Adding:

    Yankees/Mets o7 -113

    Originally had passed when the line was 7.5, now bet down to 7 and the Mets have announced their only good reliever is on the DL. deGrom should pitch well as always but the Yankees have a dangerous lineup and probably get a few runs before scoring more against the bullpen in the final 2 innings. New York draws walks well and rarely allows pitchers to get to 7 innings so we might see more stinky bullpen than just 2 innings. The wind is blowing out at around 10 MPH which should help fly balls carry as well. Tanaka hasn't been sharp this season and is struggling badly with the long ball. The Mets aren't doing any hitting but they have numerous power bats in the lineup and with the wind aiding the long ball I have to think they get a few over the fence. It doesn't make me feel great about playing a deGrom game over when the Mets aren't hitting but at only 7 I have to try it. Yankees could put up most of that against this pen.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Ohtani to DL.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    Hey Jake, I am curious if you liked the Dbacks at -106 why did you not take them earlier this AM or last night I think they were as high as +109 or something, I know you know but that much difference in the line is a huge difference as good as you are doing with only down a couple units after 200 or so games that little difference would for sure put you in the positive by just buying at the best price on games you like. do you agree or are you doing something different?

    Just didn't cap in time. Busy week, been getting ready for another vacation. Today might be my last day of baseball. Might do tomorrow, we'll see how it plays out. But yeah, if I had capped earlier I'd have taken the +109 for sure. Just didn't cap until after the move.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    JD Martinez not in lineup for Red Sox. Already w/o Betts and Pedroia (plus Hanley if you want to include him).
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Boston shouldn't be expected to hit lefties much with those guys out, but facing a righty today.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Record: 149-158 -4.34

    Blah both dogs' bullpens blew the games late. Rough year for me with the bullpen luck.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Going to call it a year. Battled back some. Made a tiny amount overall with the 2-unit plays figured in. Would have been a nice season if I didn't blow 10 units trying to cap from a Mexican beach like an idiot. Ultimately not what I wanted. Will try and do better next year. Thanks to everyone for the support along the way and good luck to those still going.
  • crazyivan24crazyivan24 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    @Jake - Why quit? MLB season is not even half done yet.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    @Jake - Why quit? MLB season is not even half done yet.

    Going on vacation for a week tomorrow played a big part (don't want to play catch up) but there are also others sports going right now (WNBA, CFL) that I find easier to beat. Also going to start spending time on NCAAF research before too long. MLB is one of the tougher sports to beat and I feel my time can be better spent elsewhere.
  • bluejakebluejake Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Enjoyed following especially the double plays look forward to future posts. Enjoy the family & vacation.
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