Betting Talk

RAS Free Play Discussion Thread

24

Comments

  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    oh shoot ok I will go take a look thanks

    he asks so many questions in so many threads he can't keep up.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I know I act like this is a forum, its crazy of me!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I wonder what that game does if RAS does not release that pick today. Do you think that line still flips if RAS did not release that pick or bet today?
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    my guess is no
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Highly unlikely it would move as far as it did, but at the same time, it closed Dream -2 at many books and was Dream -2 -115 at CRIS. You'd think if there was any pro Sky sentiment someone would have taken the +2.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    so my question is, is that line now effecient
    we knows its a small market. It does not get much public money I would assume so if RAS with its network puts out a play and 25 people jump on it that sways it way harder than it was. I actually modeled Sky -2.5 and that was looking correct until RAS made its play. I make MLB plays and I see the book I am using move the line a cent or 2 when I do, obviously my opinion does not count as sharp or making the market more effecient. So forget the long winded is the line now effecient? SMart Money RAS money said +2.5 was a cheap price so tehy played it but did they think it was 4 points cheap??? I highly doubt they did, I am guessing they had it a +1 or so or maybe even PICK. I wish RAS would chime in unless of course an answer would be exposing something they may not want as public knowledge.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    baseball wrote: »
    Highly unlikely it would move as far as it did, but at the same time, it closed Dream -2 at many books and was Dream -2 -115 at CRIS. You'd think if there was any pro Sky sentiment someone would have taken the +2.
    I dont think its a big enough market. I think a pump from RAS has a huge impact on the small WNBA market but not sure of course, just guessing at best
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    so my question is, is that line now effecient
    we knows its a small market. It does not get much public money I would assume so if RAS with its network puts out a play and 25 people jump on it that sways it way harder than it was. I actually modeled Sky -2.5 and that was looking correct until RAS made its play. I make MLB plays and I see the book I am using move the line a cent or 2 when I do, obviously my opinion does not count as sharp or making the market more effecient. So forget the long winded is the line now effecient? SMart Money RAS money said +2.5 was a cheap price so tehy played it but did they think it was 4 points cheap??? I highly doubt they did, I am guessing they had it a +1 or so or maybe even PICK. I wish RAS would chime in unless of course an answer would be exposing something they may not want as public knowledge.

    I wouldn't put a ton of stock in how good your line was before Ras made a play. The game tipped at noon and wasn't on the board for very long prior to their release.

    Someone asked Ed if he would play Atlanta +1.5 and Ed replied on Twitter that he'd play it to pick em.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I wish when they posted the plays they would give us their line so we know how much we can go before stopping betting. I mean if they Got Atlanta -2 and the line is +2.5 I bet now its +2 I bet now its 1 I bet Pick I bet and stop there but if I dont know what they had I can only bet when its +2.5 because that is the play they gave even though I think he said a half point lower is ok, I am not sure but RAS said something like that!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    baseball wrote: »
    I wouldn't put a ton of stock in how good your line was before Ras made a play. The game tipped at noon and wasn't on the board for very long prior to their release.

    Someone asked Ed if he would play Atlanta +1.5 and Ed replied on Twitter that he'd play it to pick em.
    so they had it Atlanta favorite by probably a couple points if he would have taken it at pickem, That would be good info to have when it was betting time, I could have got down 2 or 3 times on that game as it moved I would be able to bet again! 20 bets could become 60,now I would like that!
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I dont think its a big enough market. I think a pump from RAS has a huge impact on the small WNBA market but not sure of course, just guessing at best

    If *anyone* in the market liked the Sky, why wouldn't they at least bet at +2 -105?

    If Ras released Sky -2.5, do you think it would close Sky -6?

    Also, it's an early season Ras WNBA release. Surely someone was willing to play through 0 and take worse numbers through the 1s.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Dude RAS can move an NFL line and you dont think they have a huge huge impact on the WNBA?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I think bet the other side of course but not near with the force and bettors from everywhere betting Atlanta, Books know when they get bombarded on a game that this happened and they probably over adjust to try and control the flow, they dip low to slow it down and then try to find neutral ground I assume, of course I dont know any of this as fact
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    so they had it Atlanta favorite by probably a couple points if he would have taken it at pickem, That would be good info to have when it was betting time, I could have got down 2 or 3 times on that game as it moved I would be able to bet again! 20 bets could become 60,now I would like that!

    Lines move around all the time. I just went back and looked at the last cbb public season from 2017 (there is no archive listed for last year's service) and 25 of 344 releases finished with 0.0 CLV or minus. That's obviously a small percentage of overall releases but it's still 7% of the time.

    If Ras said what every play was good through, it would hurt your ability to add more later if the market moved the line back/near the release line later in the day.
  • gobucks2gobucks2 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I wish when they posted the plays they would give us their line so we know how much we can go before stopping betting. I mean if they Got Atlanta -2 and the line is +2.5 I bet now its +2 I bet now its 1 I bet Pick I bet and stop there but if I dont know what they had I can only bet when its +2.5 because that is the play they gave even though I think he said a half point lower is ok, I am not sure but RAS said something like that!
    Yea maybe he can just send out his model with instructions on how to use it. That would be most ideal imo.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    that would be great gobucks2 can you ask him for us?
    I doubt it but if he could give us his line on the games that would be awesome, I am thinking 20 games at 645 and will probably end up 1 or 2 units more than likely and WNBA maxes so darn low, I would love to get in more bets, if that makes sense but maybe my thinking is wrong, which happens often
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    that would be great gobucks2 can you ask him for us?
    I doubt it but if he could give us his line on the games that would be awesome, I am thinking 20 games at 645 and will probably end up 1 or 2 units more than likely and WNBA maxes so darn low, I would love to get in more bets, if that makes sense but maybe my thinking is wrong, which happens often

    Now that you've discovered that Ras releases move the line so far, you'll know next time to bet at worse #s, and then you can decide later on if you want to take the opposite side close to tip off (since nobody would dare bet opposite of Ras, even at a line that's 3.5 points different)
  • PredatorPredator Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    dan......everything obviously cannot be revealed... but heres the scenario...most of the subscribers, and i am sure i will be corrected if wrong, primarily only bet the game once because that is number that has the value.... they get that number at release time and max bet the play..personally if i cannot get the release number i dont bet it and sometimes after the initial flurry the number will come back and you will be able to get down then.... max plays are alot of the reason why the number moves so fast... nobody thinks about whats going to happen right after the release because of trust in the release...also, it is hard enough for some to always be "on call" for the release let alone being able to then sit and watch the movement.. you obviously have enough time !!!! dont take that the wrong way pls... sometimes, but rarely, later in the week you will be able to bet the game back, as a middle, with many times double digit numbers....
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    baseball wrote: »
    Now that you've discovered that Ras releases move the line so far, you'll know next time to bet at worse #s, and then you can decide later on if you want to take the opposite side close to tip off (since nobody would dare bet opposite of Ras, even at a line that's 3.5 points different)

    dude you are mean for no reason, chill out, take a pill, drink a beer, sip some gin, this is for fun, not to pick on the short bus kids(meaning me), why do questions bother you so much, if you dont like questions skip the thread buddy!
    I am just curious about the line effeciency and if its possible to bet more for my 645 dude, I am not indicting anyone or trying to play devils advocate, just searching trying to find ways to profit in any nook or cranny I can. No offense meant
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    The questions are fine. Many of them are actually good and worthy of discussion and have actually led to some good discussion. But you're trying to have it both ways. On the one hand, you portray yourself as someone who doesn't have all the answers. Yet you want everybody to give you the answers. And then when someone takes the time to engage or answer your many questions, you are dismissive often and occasionally combative. Including in this thread. So my last sentence, sarcastic as it was, responded in kind.

    It is clear from many of your posts that you aren't thinking through your own thoughts. You just type whatever enters your brain in real time and then post it. As you say often, it's a discussion forum, and you're just having discussion. But if you spent more time in thought, tried to find easily findable answers on your own before asking them, demonstrated a little bit more that you're actually listening to the responses people give you, then I think myself and others would be more willing to engage.

    Again, I actually think you ask some good questions. But when seeking answers, I think it would benefit you to listen more, talk less, and give others a chance to reply to ONE of your questions before you starting firing off 10 more.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    so my question is, is that line now effecient
    we knows its a small market. It does not get much public money I would assume so if RAS with its network puts out a play and 25 people jump on it that sways it way harder than it was. I actually modeled Sky -2.5 and that was looking correct until RAS made its play. I make MLB plays and I see the book I am using move the line a cent or 2 when I do, obviously my opinion does not count as sharp or making the market more effecient. So forget the long winded is the line now effecient? SMart Money RAS money said +2.5 was a cheap price so tehy played it but did they think it was 4 points cheap??? I highly doubt they did, I am guessing they had it a +1 or so or maybe even PICK. I wish RAS would chime in unless of course an answer would be exposing something they may not want as public knowledge.

    The answer is probably not. After a RAS line move, there is probably more value on the other side and plenty of people that bet against the moves.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    baseball wrote: »
    The questions are fine. Many of them are actually good and worthy of discussion and have actually led to some good discussion. But you're trying to have it both ways. On the one hand, you portray yourself as someone who doesn't have all the answers. Yet you want everybody to give you the answers. And then when someone takes the time to engage or answer your many questions, you are dismissive often and occasionally combative. Including in this thread. So my last sentence, sarcastic as it was, responded in kind.



    It is clear from many of your posts that you aren't thinking through your own thoughts. You just type whatever enters your brain in real time and then post it. As you say often, it's a discussion forum, and you're just having discussion. But if you spent more time in thought, tried to find easily findable answers on your own before asking them, demonstrated a little bit more that you're actually listening to the responses people give you, then I think myself and others would be more willing to engage.

    Again, I actually think you ask some good questions. But when seeking answers, I think it would benefit you to listen more, talk less, and give others a chance to reply to ONE of your questions before you starting firing off 10 more.

    I will keep thinking, questioning and arguing. You cannt break new ground by staying on the same ground. You know it is because you learned it yourself or someone told you. I am doing the same, the only difference is I am not a "yes man" like you and I challenge peoples wives tales or old way of thinking about this game. I have had lots of success in my life in other areas and I did not have that success without breaking a few eggs and getting things done either the same way but better or a diffferent way altogether. You can continue to do what everyone else tells you and keep getting the same results, you should maybe try and understand the old ways hardly work, hardly anyone wins, the only way to win in these times is to do something different and I am always on the search for that with more passion and commitment than most people because that is how I do all things 110% as you can see from my posts and effort and follow through, I might fail but it wont be from lack of commitment, sweat or trying. Push on!
  • vegasendbossvegasendboss Member
    edited May 2018
    R40 wrote: »
    The answer is probably not. After a RAS line move, there is probably more value on the other side and plenty of people that bet against the moves.

    can we bet on this being not true please?
    you think the number the market settles after the correction made after a RAS release is more +EV than RAS's release? jesus.
  • gobucks2gobucks2 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I will keep thinking, questioning and arguing. You cannt break new ground by staying on the same ground. You know it is because you learned it yourself or someone told you. I am doing the same, the only difference is I am not a "yes man" like you and I challenge peoples wives tales or old way of thinking about this game. I have had lots of success in my life in other areas and I did not have that success without breaking a few eggs and getting things done either the same way but better or a diffferent way altogether. You can continue to do what everyone else tells you and keep getting the same results, you should maybe try and understand the old ways hardly work, hardly anyone wins, the only way to win in these times is to do something different and I am always on the search for that with more passion and commitment than most people because that is how I do all things 110% as you can see from my posts and effort and follow through, I might fail but it wont be from lack of commitment, sweat or trying. Push on!
    Is this a quote from Wall Street?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    gobucks now wag your tail and wait for your little buddies to give you thanks for that useless response
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    can we bet on this being not true please?
    you think the number the market settles after the correction made after a RAS release is more +EV than RAS's release? jesus.

    I think WNBA is way different, I think that RAS releases and it has a huge change and the line overcompensates and because of the small market probably never recovers correctly but I dont know that cant prove that and the only way to tell would be adequate sample size and check the results which I bet RAS knows that answer over the time they have done releases
  • vegasendbossvegasendboss Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I think WNBA is way different, I think that RAS releases and it has a huge change and the line overcompensates and because of the small market probably never recovers correctly but I dont know that cant prove that and the only way to tell would be adequate sample size and check the results which I bet RAS knows that answer over the time they have done releases

    orrrrrr.... its such an Illiquid/not mature/less efficient market, that the edges on his releases are bigger than normal and therefore his bets are +++EV on release and then still have zero value (at the very least a lot less than his bet) on buyback even after a big move.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    can we bet on this being not true please?
    you think the number the market settles after the correction made after a RAS release is more +EV than RAS's release? jesus.

    Error
  • vegasendbossvegasendboss Member
    edited May 2018
    R40 wrote: »
    Error

    can we bet on this somehow? you take the other side of his releases at the peak price of market correction and i take his release number and we xbook results. see how that goes for you.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    can we bet on this somehow? you take the other side of his releases at the peak price of market correction and i take his release number and we xbook results. see how that goes for you.

    You'll have to figure out what you are betting on first.
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