so CLV is the same as W-L it can be luck and if it can be luck than it is not a good measure of skill. I think its the best measure we have but its not a true indicator, I would not start cancer treatment with those kind of numbers. I need something more accurate. I am also convinced the market is not always effecient and that causes a real problem with CLV being accurate. You take 50 super bowls and run your CLV and you will be shit shocked how bad your model is. I think the best approach is the most deadly, huge sample size and if you are wrong it is way way way too late and you are broke.
Just start marking down the number of 1 point line moves and do 5 random samples of 100 bets and see what the results are.
The market cannot be always efficient because it is subject to emotion. See bitcoin.
R40, great answers here and i agree with most you say, however with BTC there's a lot more Fun Player Money in the market that make decisions based on emotion when compared to the most efficient yet less liquid sport-betting marketplace, so not a good comparison
the exact amount is unknown and of course the more deviation points the numbers drop but possible
A 1-point line move equates to about 56% winning percentage. Do a check on a number of bets and see how close it gets. I think you will find it gets pretty damn close.
1 point mover you mean 1% win% change or what exactly, can you give me an example
I mean the line moves 3 to 4 or 5 to 6 or 11 to 12. You don't have to get specific on percentage terms. Just check the winning percentages on games that move a full point and compare it to the expectation of 56%.
yes 1 point varies in value but if you can get a free point across the board you would be very wealthy IF the limits are reasonable otherwise you just make a few bucks!
yes 1 point varies in value but if you can get a free point across the board you would be very wealthy IF the limits are reasonable otherwise you just make a few bucks!
Yes. That is precooked CLV. That is why you measure how much CLV value you have because it predicts your winning percentage pretty accurately.
you can see from Dr H's record that CLV is good and units are good but the two dont match 1% clv does not mean 5 units or something like that
If you have 1 point of CLV, you are a guaranteed winner. The higher your CLV, the higher your winning percentage will be. There will be times when a winning CLV will produce 40% winning percentages. The expectation is always positive however and it is all you have to go on.
I can agree to that but I am still stuck on without a decent sample size, you cant really say you are good at this! by the time you have a decent sample size you are toast if you were wrong.
If you spent half the amount time on crafting your projections as you did on making retarded forum posts you may actually get somewhere. No matter how many times people tell you xyz to be true you refuse to listen and spout off about abc.
CSH take your own advice buddy! Keep posting those 250 limiter overnights and acting like you can cap, if you cant beat the BOL openers you should not be doing anything!
Again acting like you know anything and making a complete fool of yourself. Releases are at the last game of the night. Your inability to comprehend how the market works, including limits, is also impeding your ability to understand anything about line value as you've made abundantly clear.
I can agree to that but I am still stuck on without a decent sample size, you cant really say you are good at this! by the time you have a decent sample size you are toast if you were wrong.
That is why you do not start whaling away with a crappy model. You at least get some kind of expectation of your projected success and that is not guaranteed because you might be a screw up.
^ lol. $250 BOL overnights, he is posting here after 1st pitch of last game - same as H - but sure, lets make sure to make fun of the ONE poster here who is +EV - this is the world we live in hahaha
^ lol. $250 BOL overnights, he is posting here after 1st pitch of last game - same as H - but sure, lets make sure to make fun of the ONE poster here who is +EV - this is the world we live in hahaha
sorry for getting off topic, CSH is the best, now can we move back on to the topic
Again acting like you know anything and making a complete fool of yourself. Releases are at the last game of the night. Your inability to comprehend how the market works, including limits, is also impeding your ability to understand anything about line value as you've made abundantly clear.
I am sorry I apologize for running my mouth, its not necessary now if we can return to the topic, thanks
In what sport and in what market is beating the closer by 1 point equating to 56%?
I don't actually have the slightest idea what one point CLV produces. I am just guesstimating. Pretty confident it is going to be in the ballpark and will at least be substantially profitable.
Comments
Just start marking down the number of 1 point line moves and do 5 random samples of 100 bets and see what the results are.
The market cannot be always efficient because it is subject to emotion. See bitcoin.
A 1-point line move equates to about 56% winning percentage. Do a check on a number of bets and see how close it gets. I think you will find it gets pretty damn close.
I dont know what you mean? Where do you get those numbers can you share the math cause I am little lost
Just look at the line histories and figure up the winning percentage on the 1-point movers on as many games as you like.
I mean the line moves 3 to 4 or 5 to 6 or 11 to 12. You don't have to get specific on percentage terms. Just check the winning percentages on games that move a full point and compare it to the expectation of 56%.
Yes. That is precooked CLV. That is why you measure how much CLV value you have because it predicts your winning percentage pretty accurately.
<tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
[TH="align: left"]Season[/TH]
[TH="align: left"]Win-Loss[/TH]
[TH="align: left"]Win %[/TH]
[TH="align: left"]CLV[/TH]
[TH="align: left"]Units[/TH]
[TH="align: left"]ROI[/TH]
2014 MLB
267-231
56.55% (Adj.)
+7.36c (+1.33%)
+43.56
+7.88%
2015 MLB
199-162
56.46% (Adj.)
+12.16c (+2.24%)
+30.89
+7.78%
2016 MLB
204-163
57.63% (Adj.)
+12.90c (+2.42%)
+40.48
+10.60%
2017 MLB
182-142
57.48% (Adj.)
+14.40c (+2.80%)
+34.68
+10.14%
2018 MLB
51-56
48.91% (Adj.)
+14.96c (+2.86%)
-7.79
-6.78%
</tbody>
you can see from Dr H's record that CLV is good and units are good but the two dont match 1% clv does not mean 5 units or something like that
If you have 1 point of CLV, you are a guaranteed winner. The higher your CLV, the higher your winning percentage will be. There will be times when a winning CLV will produce 40% winning percentages. The expectation is always positive however and it is all you have to go on.
Not in the very short term. There are professional gamblers that have made millions blindly betting lines so it is a proven concept.
That is why you do not start whaling away with a crappy model. You at least get some kind of expectation of your projected success and that is not guaranteed because you might be a screw up.
sorry for getting off topic, CSH is the best, now can we move back on to the topic
its a vague random number but I think he was just saying in general.
I don't actually have the slightest idea what one point CLV produces. I am just guesstimating. Pretty confident it is going to be in the ballpark and will at least be substantially profitable.