Betting Talk

CFL Picks 2018

24

Comments

  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    Square= someone like me who knows enough to bet stupid, I know the Pats are way better than the Browns
    Nerf =someone who thinks they know more than the square, I know that the book I read on bettting said big dogs and the road!

    the line shows it, the dog line is over bet and that is why the value is in the faves, Cappers are getting crushed because the value is in the fave and they cant believe that or wont believe that. it is the top .000001% that say I bet wherever the value is and actually bet there, dont forget the dumb part of that (betting things that have value but will never happen). it is hard to bet the dumb ass dogs over and over because of line value look at this this is really hard to keep betting

    <style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
    <colgroup><col style="width: 48px"><col width="113"><col width="55"><col width="43"><col width="65"><col width="65"><col width="68"></colgroup><tbody>
    Date
    Team
    My Line
    Close
    Bet At
    Bet Amt
    Result


    6/23
    Royals

    292
    288
    0.35
    L


    6/23
    Tigers

    221
    236
    0.42
    L


    6/16
    Blue Jays

    212
    199
    0.50
    W


    6/29
    Royals

    190
    194
    0.52
    L


    6/19
    Twins

    181
    155
    0.65
    W


    6/21
    Mariners

    170
    180
    0.56
    L


    7/14
    Mariners

    166
    155
    0.65
    L


    6/16
    Twins

    165
    190
    0.53
    W


    6/26
    Phillies

    165
    194
    0.52
    L


    7/3
    Orioles

    152
    150
    0.67
    L


    6/24
    Rangers

    151
    170
    0.59
    L


    6/30
    Yankees

    137
    129
    0.78
    L


    6/26
    Rockies

    135
    119
    0.84
    L


    6/22
    Mets

    133
    137
    0.73
    L


    6/12
    Nationals

    131
    156
    0.64
    L

    </tbody>

    All line moves are from people with money betting either side. Most of that money probably has some model behind it. There is really no advantage to be had with any side at this point. If anything, there is probably some slight advantage on road favorites because they are universally considered to be bad bets.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    if I just avoided dogs above 130 I would be up like 8-10 more units!

    I think the market is whooed on dog fave under over and it has dumb ass touts spitting out stuff and making people make bad bets. I learned one thing as I bet bigger at different books and believe me they know I am not sharp action, small money moves lines, if I put down 2 -3 grand late night on a mlb game across a couple books it moves the line. it is less money than people think that move lines
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    Touts have nothing to do with market prices unless one of the major ones is betting a line. I suspect modelers have a strong preference for underdogs on average and you may well have that bias.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    I really dont know who is causing it but the facts are there the underdog is getting overbet now.

    - - - Updated - - -


    <tbody>
    [TH="align: center"]ATS:[/TH]
    1085-1130-77 (-0.11, 49.0%) NFL Road Dogs



    </tbody>


    <tbody>
    [TH="align: center"]ATS:[/TH]
    7310-7180-298 (-0.39, 50.4%) NCAAF Road Dogs

    </tbody>
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    Yes. I think that is true. I bet a ton of road favorites and have always thought that was the case. I have often wondered if the reason I have done well is just because the market is skewed in my favor. I haven't much looked at the numbers but when I have road favorites have been like 53% across the board.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018

    <tbody>
    [TH="align: center"]ATS:[/TH]
    4327-3989-160 (-0.41, 52.0%) NBA road dogs

    sorry these aree all road favorites, not dogs!

    </tbody>

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    I think to me none of that should play into your bet, you should bet where there is value at any number that is winnable, you dont want to bet good value +1000000 bets because you wont have enough money or live long enough to collect even though the bet has value.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    Everybody bets where they think there is value. The problem is that the value is not there. So if road favorites are winning at 52% and you are losing on the dogs, there is clearly an overestimation of the home court and you probably have it.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    I think its a lot of noise but I think there is a little correctness there.
    think of the most common terms you see
    dont bet big faves, dogs on the road, and all the other crazy stuff. Think of stocks, the true value of a share might be X but if Justin Bieber says he has it you better believe it is going to jump!
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I think its a lot of noise but I think there is a little correctness there.
    think of the most common terms you see
    dont bet big faves, dogs on the road, and all the other crazy stuff. Think of stocks, the true value of a share might be X but if Justin Bieber says he has it you better believe it is going to jump!

    Yes. All things are subject to change. Home court is blindly factored in as 3 points I believe. So if it is 2 points, it will take years for people to figure it out.

    Players become better and better over time. The NFL has tried to get its scoring up and instead they have created DBs that are out of this world. The defenses adapt to the point now that their crappy QBs cannot move the ball no matter how much of an advantage you give them.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    I think the betting market is tougher to beat but I think it is beatable and consistently. I think even people with some success have winning and losing years, they call it variance but reality even good people have a hard time beating the line consistently.
    People got to thoroughly understand most bettors even the best, greatest ever cannot pick winners, you can only beat the line! Picking winners is a correlation of beating the line.
    You can argue that 1000s of bets prove otherwise but that is not true, that would be like saying if I throw a fair die 100000 times and avg 5 that the over under should be 5 on my next roll, 5 is noise, the reality is 3.5 no matter how many 10000s of times I throw fair dice
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    LOL. A bet is not a throw of the dice for everybody. You do not throw dice based on information.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    I think winners and losers are the throw of the dice.
    I think standard deviation can make someone with zero talent look very talented.
    if you have 1000 cappers and tehy all start out now blind picking 50-50 chance games for 1000 games, 2 or 3 will be the greatest ever and 2 or 3 will be the worst ever. 994 will be beetween 60-40 and 40-60, rough numbers but the idea is real.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    Yes. But you overstate how hard the market is to beat. It is hard to beat at high volume. It is not as hard to beat at low volume or with smaller dollar amounts or lower odds that you can get in various way. Much depends on discipline and whether you think it is worth your time to win at low volume or smaller dollar amounts.

    If you win over 1,000 bets, you are much more likely to be a real winner than not. Variance will make some losers winners and some winners losers. That is why you use CLV as an estimation of your edge because actual results may vary.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    I think what I am trying to say is people see people making picks and they look like they are doing good but in reality they are just lucky or the have 7 accounts going on the forum and are hoping for a hot hand. I am the newest guy on the block I literally know nothing and my units and CLV on my model for mlb is better numbers wise than most people spewing out stats like aws, pir, fun, fat and whatever other acronyms they use in baseball. I am not trying to brag I am trying to say that if you are betting and you think you can outcap the world on how good green bays defense is, you are wrong dead wrong and will lose!

    I also think cappers need to do what models do and that is change, you got to adjust these games and lines and rules change all the time, you cannot be concerned with some things today like you were hundred years ago.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    Your chances of winning a bet on GB's defense are not as good as Tulane's. The fact is that some of them can win bets based on GB's defense. The trouble is when they do, they try to win again based on Chicago's defense and lose their winnings. That is the trick to winning gambling. You have to know when to hold them and know when to fold them.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    I look at a guy like Jets and the guy is killing it but because he is humble and does not scream his record out all day like I do and you can see that talent plays a role. he is way way way less worried about the line than I am and he BLOWS ME and reallity everyone here out of the water. guy is up like 30 or so units ( I dont know how many just guessing) and does not post his record once, the one time I asked he said SHUT UP! He does not think its important to go around saying how good you are and that is a nice change from the touts but in reality I bet you check his bets and his CLV and the guy is beating the line consistenly. I see the value in his bets, you can see it just by looking at them when he posts them, they have value just not sure on the clv but dont doubt there is value there.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    Jets is less annoying than you and I am glad you have found a friend.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    R40 wrote: »
    Your chances of winning a bet on GB's defense are not as good as Tulane's. The fact is that some of them can win bets based on GB's defense. The trouble is when they do, they try to win again based on Chicago's defense and lose their winnings. That is the trick to winning gambling. You have to know when to hold them and know when to fold them.

    I think you are smart but I think we look at it completely different. I think you brought that up before and said how it was the modeler and capper or something but yeah we see it different and i think the best is the guy in the middle who has both! I think that guy probably kills it BUT full disclosure I dont think very many people win, I really dont. I think for 99.99% of people winning is a short term symptom of betting but not a permanent condition.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I think you are smart but I think we look at it completely different. I think you brought that up before and said how it was the modeler and capper or something but yeah we see it different and i think the best is the guy in the middle who has both! I think that guy probably kills it BUT full disclosure I dont think very many people win, I really dont. I think for 99.99% of people winning is a short term symptom of betting but not a permanent condition.

    Yes, you pretty much need both these days.

    There is no doubt that very few win. Many more are capable of winning but don't. Some can win at one sport but not others. Some win but not in respected ways so they don't count for some.

    Most gamblers are their own worst enemy so no matter what their potential or capability, they will wind up in the hole by betting too many games or betting stuff they shouldn't.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    The basic difference between you and me is that you believe in the market is largely unbeatable. I believe the market is beatable but only on a limited basis. Every winning gambler has a certain capacity to win. I can probably can't win on 300 college football bets. I have won on 200. My chances are better at 50 and I am basically guaranteed to win at 10 or less if I limit myself to those lines that are absolutely WRONG.

    Does that make me sharp? I can probably win 10,000s of thousands on those lines. But I am not going to have that much in an account when I am only going to bet 10 games.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    R40 wrote: »
    Jets is less annoying than you and I am glad you have found a friend.

    guy is the real deal and nobody knows it because he is quiet and does not scream his record all day!
  • spiderman77spiderman77 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    guy is the real deal and nobody knows it because he is quiet and does not scream his record all day!

    I think you have that backwards, it’s a lot easier to not keep a record. Keeping a record makes you accountable, nowhere to hide when things go poorly.

    I don’t know of anybody on this forum that beats their chest over winning records. Other forums yes, here no, winners are quite humble in my opinion. As long as they post their records whether winning or losing, which the great majority do, they are not screaming by posting their record. I’d suggest you just cover your ears if you think they are screaming. I personally love to see people win because I know how hard it is to do.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    I think you have that backwards, it’s a lot easier to not keep a record. Keeping a record makes you accountable, nowhere to hide when things go poorly.

    I don’t know of anybody on this forum that beats their chest over winning records. Other forums yes, here no, winners are quite humble in my opinion. As long as they post their records whether winning or losing, which the great majority do, they are not screaming by posting their record. I’d suggest you just cover your ears if you think they are screaming. I personally love to see people win because I know how hard it is to do.

    in regards to keeping a record you are wrong, period.
    and for beating their chest for a good record, I was mainly referring to me!

    - - - Updated - - -

    and I think the funny thing is what good does it do keeping a record, every single person I know has winning streaks nerf or sharp. Winning means nothing, line direction is everything, you should be tracking your line direction or its useless posting. I dont follow or pay attention to anyones record unless they track clv or line direction. If i check out someones picks, the only thing I do is look at the line direction on their picks, CSH guy was not my friend but he had awesome line direction and I bet he comes close to winning or is winning long term. Keeping a W/L record is dumb and useless for the picker and the pickees. is pickees a word, LOL?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    Man I wish we could have a competition to shut up some of these dudes forever.
    like 20 picks for each competitor and wins losses mean nothing all line value
    we determine the value of each pick by
    1 place each bet at BOL, Pinny and or BM
    2 once game closes we use oddsportal to get the pinny price for that pick
    example you bet
    moneylines yankees -115 now cause its -115 at pinny and once it closes you take the pinny closing line
    spreads or totals Bulls +4 you get it at -110 and when it closes we use pinny odds on oddsportal for +4
    we calculate the value of each bet
    1st place gets $200 worth of BTC my money I will put it up and can ban me from posting for 3 month if he chooses
    2nd place gets to ban me for 3 months if he chooses
    3rd place gets to ban me for 1 month if he chooses
    it would be awesome I will put up the BTC in advance if someobody is scared I wont pay.
    would be cool we could even set a line on the winner and we could bet each other.

    would surely clear up for me at least who is who and who aint!

    - - - Updated - - -

    and for those wannabe touts out there, this would be a really opportunity to shine!

    - - - Updated - - -

    I will do all the work under Buckys watchful eye as he can be the reviewer of all, I mean of course everyone can review but I mean the official worker bee would be me and Bucky the official reviewer
  • BuckyBadgerBuckyBadger Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    I would have no desire to participate in or monitor any such contest. Just because you think wins-losses are irrelevant and line value is the only thing you believe to be important, doesn't mean that everyone, or even most, look at it that way.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    Bucky is out, i was wrong I thought he enjoyed reviewing things. Anyway if anyone wants to be the official reviewer if we can even do it, I would love to have you!

    - - - Updated - - -

    I asked some people and they say the sample size is small but it would definitely show you some things about the cappers in the competition.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    Line value is looking great in the CFL, very odd how they have way less injuries not like they would mean much they seem to have a pretty even rating depth chart wise, not lots of 9s and a few 3s its more like 4 to 6s in player rating
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    7-27 Argonauts +11 -106
    7-28 Roughriders O47.5 -104
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    7-26
    Eskimos +8
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    7-26
    Eskimos +8
    I think they will cancel my bet at BOL too LOL
    that is why I made a screenshot of itattachment.php?attachmentid=418&stc=1

    - - - Updated - - -

    anyway 7-26
    Eskimos -7
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