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    Default 1st Rounder QB Debut Angle

    I found a little angle, which is that the last 8st round QBs had strong debuts. Even when they turned out horrible. In 2014 Blake Bortles played the second half of a blowout and did OK but threw a couple picks. Everyone drafted in 2015-2018 had strong starts.

    Josh Allen is supposedly less polished, but I think the conventional wisdom is that rookie starters are horrible, and they used to be, but maybe something about college has changed in the last 5-10 years, film study or something, but 1st round QBs do really well in their first games. Some of them, like Darnold last week, aren't asked to do a lot, only 21 attempts, but my thinking is that Buffalo might find itself in more passing situations.

    So I like the Over 17 for Buffalo, and the Josh Allen over 225 (+116), 245 (+264), 265 (+451), and 285 (+781) seem +EV to me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by paddyboy111 View Post
    I found a little angle, which is that the last 8st round QBs had strong debuts. Even when they turned out horrible. In 2014 Blake Bortles played the second half of a blowout and did OK but threw a couple picks. Everyone drafted in 2015-2018 had strong starts.

    Josh Allen is supposedly less polished, but I think the conventional wisdom is that rookie starters are horrible, and they used to be, but maybe something about college has changed in the last 5-10 years, film study or something, but 1st round QBs do really well in their first games. Some of them, like Darnold last week, aren't asked to do a lot, only 21 attempts, but my thinking is that Buffalo might find itself in more passing situations.

    So I like the Over 17 for Buffalo, and the Josh Allen over 225 (+116), 245 (+264), 265 (+451), and 285 (+781) seem +EV to me.
    Update:
    Over 17 WIN
    Over 225 yds WIN
    Over 245 yds PUSH!
    Over 265 yds LOSS
    Over 285 yds LOSS