Betting Talk

Baseball - MLB - Hits + Runs + Errors

JayJayOkochaJayJayOkocha Junior Member
edited September 2018 in Sports Betting
Can anybody elucidate me on whats the rough value of half a point in the MLB - Hits + Runs + Errors market

Comments

  • bumpobumpo Senior Member
    edited September 2018
    I've been trying to find an answer to that as well. My guess is between 15 and 20 cents. Not many games fall on the number.
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited September 2018
    Last night I took the under 26-115 instead of -26 1/2 -135 and it did end up on 26 so pushed instead of a win if I layed the higher juice. Bumpo is correct , not many games fall right on the number but there are more than you think that land within a 1/2 of the line like the game last night.


    My guess is to lay the higher juice at 20c or less but I could be wrong.
  • megapowers88megapowers88 Senior Member
    edited September 2018
    I like doing these a lot, but yeah, that is a tough call. A lot of times when I line shop my 9 books, one usually has something good but yeah, it't hard between u26 at -120 or u26.5 at -145. Not sure. Depends on the mood, haha. Rarely run into that though.
  • BuckyBadgerBuckyBadger Senior Member
    edited September 2018
    I like doing these a lot, but yeah, that is a tough call. A lot of times when I line shop my 9 books, one usually has something good but yeah, it't hard between u26 at -120 or u26.5 at -145. Not sure. Depends on the mood, haha. Rarely run into that though.

    since a half-run on or off the 7 for a total is worth 26 to 28 cents, I can't imagine that a half-run on a HRE line of 26 is worth anything close to that.
  • donny2donny2 Senior Member
    edited September 2018
    Is there a reason you guys prefer to bet these as oppose to the total? Obviously they are hugely correlated. But the juice on these are higher. I assume you guys bet these because certain teams have players that could hit well against certain pitchers but the team can't drive any runs in?
  • megapowers88megapowers88 Senior Member
    edited September 2018
    Not really sure, edge just seems higher.
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited September 2018
    donny2,

    Check out the OLD TIMER thread, there's a lot more talk on this. I too, thought with the higher juice that betting game totals would be better but I have been doing well with the HRE plays. These are highly correlated but I have noticed in a few games that I played, the game total going over but the HRE hitting under, where I played the under in the prop bet. In the OLD TIMER thread OT does mention his reason for the prop bet being a better bet than the GT. I think he's right.
  • megapowers88megapowers88 Senior Member
    edited September 2018
    what did he say in a nutshell? I forget.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited September 2018
    what did he say in a nutshell? I forget.

    Which post? The one I remember him stating his dislike of lazy employees while he was Shift Boss.
  • donny2donny2 Senior Member
    edited September 2018
    maidenguy wrote: »
    donny2,

    Check out the OLD TIMER thread, there's a lot more talk on this. I too, thought with the higher juice that betting game totals would be better but I have been doing well with the HRE plays. These are highly correlated but I have noticed in a few games that I played, the game total going over but the HRE hitting under, where I played the under in the prop bet. In the OLD TIMER thread OT does mention his reason for the prop bet being a better bet than the GT. I think he's right.

    Hi there. I have seen that thread few times and went through each post. There was mention of it being heavily correlated. Now the thing is about what percentage. I would say it has to be at least 85 percent minimum don't you or the others agree? The other main thing is the high juice compared to the full game total.

    I saw his record when he was done posting and it was very good. But did anyone here track how he would have done in his record and units won if he had just played the over or under instead?

    He mentioned how if early on a pitcher walks a bunch of batters and gives up a home run, sure the total could be already halfway of the 8 runs etc. But its only 1/5 to the way towards the 25 r h e prop which seems to be a huge advantage. However, he mentioned how certain pitchers veteran pitchers might give up a bunch of hits but then tend to get out of jams. So with them, the under with the total is better than r h e. So i thought it was interesting from both point of views. But im curious what other criteria do ppl look at when betting rhe vs the game total.

    Also so there seem to be an edge where if you bet under r h e, its better than betting under full game because few ppl mention total went over but r h e went under. However, what about betting the over r h e? Im guessing this would be teams that get hits and give up hits but have trouble scoring? Because from what is being discussed, seems like r h e are better for unders? But if you bet overs... better for game total than r h e? I notice he seemed to almost always post unders when its r h e. Looking back at his thread, he had to played at least 90 percent unders in the rhe. So i assume he believes edge in unders for rhe but not overs then right?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Another thing i want to add. In general are the numbers for the RHE pretty consistent and close for the full game total?

    Example a total is 7. The RHE is 24. Now let say it was LAD/SF. Now you have another game that is total 7 with Houston/Cleveland. In general, does a 7 almost always get a RHE of 24 or 24.5? Thus it should never be off more than 1 when it comes to RHE right? Such as a game with total of 9 and one with 9.5. The RHE for the 9.5 should almost always be higher than the 9? However, my thoughts are well it shouldn't be since certain pitchers might give up lot of hits but not lot of runs etc.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Another thing i want to add. In general are the numbers for the RHE pretty consistent and close for the full game total?

    Example a total is 7. The RHE is 24. Now let say it was LAD/SF. Now you have another game that is total 7 with Houston/Cleveland. In general, does a 7 almost always get a RHE of 24 or 24.5? Thus it should never be off more than 1 when it comes to RHE right? Such as a game with total of 9 and one with 9.5. The RHE for the 9.5 should almost always be higher than the 9? However, my thoughts are well it shouldn't be since certain pitchers might give up lot of hits but not lot of runs etc.
  • maidenguymaidenguy Senior Member
    edited September 2018
    There's no question most of the plays on HRE should be on the under. When I play the occasional over I still stick with the HRE prop. About the juice , books can be all over the place with these. Bookmaker's openers are shaded towards the under with the juice and also their total are often shaded towards the under. It's important to get the best number you can so it's important to have at least 3 outs or more.
    For me, I have always had a tough time making money in baseball over the many years but since I have been playing these I have been increasing my BR. I thank OT for starting the thread on this.
  • megapowers88megapowers88 Senior Member
    edited September 2018
    lazy employees?

    - - - Updated - - -
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Which post? The one I remember him stating his dislike of lazy employees while he was Shift Boss.

    What's the significance of that?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Yeah, a lot of times I'll watch Pinny steam and then catch an offshore sleeping on the juice.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited September 2018
    lazy employees?

    - - - Updated - - -
    What's the significance of that?

    We are discussing correlation?
  • megapowers88megapowers88 Senior Member
    edited September 2018
    Ahhhhh, gotcha!
  • megapowers88megapowers88 Senior Member
    edited September 2018
    Yeah, I only do NL unders, that is it.
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