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    Default 2018-19 NFL MVP Odds Discussion

    Itís safe to say the 2018-19 Associated Press NFL MVP winner will be a quarterback that plays for a playoff team with a winning record. Over the past 30 years, 75% of MVP winners played quarterback while 100% of winners made the playoffs and won 9+ games.

    With the exception of Adrian Peterson's monster 2,300-yard season in 2012, a non-quarterback has not won an MVP award since 2006. Look no further than last year when Todd Gurley accumulated over 2,000 total yards and 19 touchdowns for an 11-5 Rams team, but only received eight (out of 50 total) MVP votes.

    Additionally, there have been no wide receivers or tight ends to be crowned MVP by the Associated Press since the award originated in 1957.

    While the usual suspects sit atop the tote board, there are some potential candidates that are being overlooked by the market (all odds listed are from Bookmaker.eu as of 8/4/2018).

    Ben Roethlisberger (25/1)
    Big Ben stood out like a sore thumb at first glance. As previously discussed, the key factors with MVP forecasting are playoff appearances and winning records. Pittsburgh is currently -270 to win the AFC North, which makes them the most likely team to win their division outside of New England.

    Considering the state of affairs involving Le'Veon Bell, it's not hard to imagine Big Ben shouldering the offensive workload for Pittsburgh this season. Furthermore, Roethlisberger has more than enough brand equity to satisfy the popularity element that inevitably factors into the equation, whether we would like to admit it or not.
    Big Ben was listed as high as 33/1 a few weeks ago, but I still think the current price offers some justifiable upside.

    Kirk Cousins (27/1)

    Cousins may not be the most appealing name listed on the docket, but the former Washington Redskins QB has demonstrated the ability to put up favorable numbers. Cousins finished among top-10 quarterbacks in total yards and yards per attempt in each of his three seasons as a full-time starter.

    Furthermore, Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are more talented than any wide receiver Cousins has played with thus far in his career. Add in Kyle Rudolph who ranked as Pro Football Focusís fifth best receiving tight end in 2017 and Cousins has various upper-echelon weapons to choose from. The Vikings also have the luxury of playing nine games in a dome, which doesn't hurt in the stat padding department.

    Although Minnesota resides in a rather competitive division, the Vikings are slight favorites to repeat as NFC North champs (+100 to win the division) and projected to win 10 games.

    As evidenced above, the driving factor behind MVP candidacy is the ability to win games and make postseason appearances. Cousins fits the profile of previous award winners and presents long enough odds to make a potential investment worthwhile.

    Patrick Mahomes (66/1)
    This one may seem silly on the surface considering Mahomes has only started one NFL game thus far in his young career, but hear me out.

    After shipping Alex Smith out of town, Mahomes has been handed the car keys to a relatively high-powered offense. The framework is in place for Mahomes to put up gaudy numbers under the tutelage of Andy Reid (aka The Quarterback Whisperer). The former Texas Tech gunslinger has a myriad of dynamic weapons at his disposal in Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins.

    From a distant view, it seems like Kansas City is going to take a high variance approach this season. The defense was far from spectacular last year, surrendering 5.6 yards per play (T-27th), and Mahomes should find himself in plenty of shootouts.

    Despite not being favored to win the AFC West, the division is still somewhat up for grabs. San Diego currently sits at +120 to win the division with Kansas City not too far behind at +229 as of this writing. It would not be inconceivable for Kansas City to climb out on top for the second year in a row, which would bode well for Mahomes's MVP prospects.

    They call them long shots for a reason, but the situation in Kansas City presents Mahomes with the theoretical upside to jettison himself into the MVP conversation

    Phil Rivers at 31/1 is another one that caught my eye, but Iím curious to hear the opinion of some other sharp NFL minds.

    https://www.lvsportsinsight.com/2018...valuating.html

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    I took DeShaun Watson at 20/1 to win MVP, don't think that number is still available though
    It's not the kill, It's the thrill of the chase

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    Quote Originally Posted by kane View Post
    I took DeShaun Watson at 20/1 to win MVP, don't think that number is still available though
    local must be slow moving grabbed +2350

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    Quote Originally Posted by kcburgh View Post
    local must be slow moving grabbed +2350
    You're getting a great number, I made my play about 2 weeks ago. From what I've been hearing his knee is fine and he's good to go. I'm all in on the Texans this year, I have them at 21/1 to win the SB and played over 8.5 wins, just need Watson to stay healthy.
    It's not the kill, It's the thrill of the chase

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    Quote Originally Posted by kane View Post
    You're getting a great number, I made my play about 2 weeks ago. From what I've been hearing his knee is fine and he's good to go. I'm all in on the Texans this year, I have them at 21/1 to win the SB and played over 8.5 wins, just need Watson to stay healthy.
    Good Luck, Sleeper in that division The Colts. But like all Football futures Health will decide. Luck kane have a good season

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    Quote Originally Posted by Old-Timer View Post
    Good Luck, Sleeper in that division The Colts. But like all Football futures Health will decide. Luck kane have a good season
    That division will be the most competitive, any team could win it assuming Luck is 100%, but in case you hadn't noticed I'm a big Watson fan, loved him in college and think he'll be a star in the NFL, they also get back JJ Watt. GL to you this season
    It's not the kill, It's the thrill of the chase

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    Quote Originally Posted by kane View Post
    That division will be the most competitive, any team could win it assuming Luck is 100%, but in case you hadn't noticed I'm a big Watson fan, loved him in college and think he'll be a star in the NFL, they also get back JJ Watt. GL to you this season
    I don't play the NFL or even watch it just drives me crazy. Nobody knows what a catch is so I think they fixed that and now the Helmet rule should make for some interesting beats cause you know very rarely your on the right side of these calls. HaHa. I'll stick to the College #2 always tries harder.

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    Quote Originally Posted by yung_keeks View Post
    Itís safe to say the 2018-19 Associated Press NFL MVP winner will be a quarterback that plays for a playoff team with a winning record. Over the past 30 years, 75% of MVP winners played quarterback while 100% of winners made the playoffs and won 9+ games.

    With the exception of Adrian Peterson's monster 2,300-yard season in 2012, a non-quarterback has not won an MVP award since 2006. Look no further than last year when Todd Gurley accumulated over 2,000 total yards and 19 touchdowns for an 11-5 Rams team, but only received eight (out of 50 total) MVP votes.

    Additionally, there have been no wide receivers or tight ends to be crowned MVP by the Associated Press since the award originated in 1957.

    While the usual suspects sit atop the tote board, there are some potential candidates that are being overlooked by the market (all odds listed are from Bookmaker.eu as of 8/4/2018).

    Ben Roethlisberger (25/1)
    Big Ben stood out like a sore thumb at first glance. As previously discussed, the key factors with MVP forecasting are playoff appearances and winning records. Pittsburgh is currently -270 to win the AFC North, which makes them the most likely team to win their division outside of New England.

    Considering the state of affairs involving Le'Veon Bell, it's not hard to imagine Big Ben shouldering the offensive workload for Pittsburgh this season. Furthermore, Roethlisberger has more than enough brand equity to satisfy the popularity element that inevitably factors into the equation, whether we would like to admit it or not.
    Big Ben was listed as high as 33/1 a few weeks ago, but I still think the current price offers some justifiable upside.

    Kirk Cousins (27/1)

    Cousins may not be the most appealing name listed on the docket, but the former Washington Redskins QB has demonstrated the ability to put up favorable numbers. Cousins finished among top-10 quarterbacks in total yards and yards per attempt in each of his three seasons as a full-time starter.

    Furthermore, Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are more talented than any wide receiver Cousins has played with thus far in his career. Add in Kyle Rudolph who ranked as Pro Football Focusís fifth best receiving tight end in 2017 and Cousins has various upper-echelon weapons to choose from. The Vikings also have the luxury of playing nine games in a dome, which doesn't hurt in the stat padding department.

    Although Minnesota resides in a rather competitive division, the Vikings are slight favorites to repeat as NFC North champs (+100 to win the division) and projected to win 10 games.

    As evidenced above, the driving factor behind MVP candidacy is the ability to win games and make postseason appearances. Cousins fits the profile of previous award winners and presents long enough odds to make a potential investment worthwhile.

    Patrick Mahomes (66/1)
    This one may seem silly on the surface considering Mahomes has only started one NFL game thus far in his young career, but hear me out.

    After shipping Alex Smith out of town, Mahomes has been handed the car keys to a relatively high-powered offense. The framework is in place for Mahomes to put up gaudy numbers under the tutelage of Andy Reid (aka The Quarterback Whisperer). The former Texas Tech gunslinger has a myriad of dynamic weapons at his disposal in Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins.

    From a distant view, it seems like Kansas City is going to take a high variance approach this season. The defense was far from spectacular last year, surrendering 5.6 yards per play (T-27th), and Mahomes should find himself in plenty of shootouts.

    Despite not being favored to win the AFC West, the division is still somewhat up for grabs. San Diego currently sits at +120 to win the division with Kansas City not too far behind at +229 as of this writing. It would not be inconceivable for Kansas City to climb out on top for the second year in a row, which would bode well for Mahomes's MVP prospects.

    They call them long shots for a reason, but the situation in Kansas City presents Mahomes with the theoretical upside to jettison himself into the MVP conversation

    Phil Rivers at 31/1 is another one that caught my eye, but Iím curious to hear the opinion of some other sharp NFL minds.

    https://www.lvsportsinsight.com/2018...valuating.html

    Here's the exhibit outlining the MVP candidates:



    I believe "The Field" was something like 36/1, but I didn't bother to include it.

    Jameis Winston priced at 60/1 is laughable to me. He is missing a minimum of three games and is on a team that projects to be one of the worst in the league (at least from a W/L standpoint).

    As an aside, I'm not sure what Carson Wentz was priced at coming into last season, but I would venture to guess it was at least 30/1 considering he was a relatively unproven second-year QB on an Eagles team that may not have been favored to even make the playoffs. I think it's safe to say had he not gotten hurt, he probably would have won the MVP last year.

    While the usual suspects up top are certainly valid, I don't think its inconceivable for a dark horse candidate to make an MVP run, which was the general premise of the exercise.
    Attached Images Attached Images

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    why waste your money ? you have a little extra cash laying around , go for it , but the odds arent in your favor.