Betting Talk

Something to ask the NFL experts

Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
edited July 2018 in Sports Betting
I like Under the Raiders 8 +105 but I can also get Raiders Under 7.5 +151 which is of course 46 cents more for the 1/2 game.
The NFL isn't my game so any opinions or comments are welcome.
Also one question how do you think a 1/2 game is worth 46c seems a little high to me how about you?


1 Mon, Sep 10 LOSE vs Los Angeles

2 Sun, Sep 16 LOSE @Denver

3 Sun, Sep 23 WIN??????? @Miami

4 Sun, Sep 30 WIN vs Cleveland

5 Sun, Oct 7 LOSE @ Los Angeles

6 Sun, Oct 14 WIN vs Seattle

7 BYE WEEK

8 Sun, Oct 28 WIN/?????Luck vs Indianapolis

9 Thu, Nov 1 WIN @ San Francisco

10 Sun, Nov 11 LOSE vs Los Angeles

11 Sun, Nov 18 WIN @ Arizona

12 Sun, Nov 25 LOSE @ Baltimore

13 Sun, Dec 2 LOSE vs Kansas City

14 Sun, Dec 9 LOSE vs Pittsburgh

15 Sun, Dec 16 WIN @ Cincinnati

16 Mon, Dec 24 LOSE vs Denver

17 Sun, Dec 30 LOSE @ Kansas City

Comments

  • munson15munson15 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    I think you're giving them too many road wins, I like the under as well, 6-10 sounds about right...as to the pricing, no idea what 1/2 win is worth, but surely someone here does...even though they're my team until they leave Oakland, good luck...
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited July 2018
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    I like Under the Raiders 8 +105 but I can also get Raiders Under 7.5 +151 which is of course 46 cents more for the 1/2 game.
    The NFL isn't my game so any opinions or comments are welcome.
    Also one question how do you think a 1/2 game is worth 46c seems a little high to me how about you?


    1 Mon, Sep 10 LOSE vs Los Angeles

    2 Sun, Sep 16 LOSE @Denver

    3 Sun, Sep 23 WIN??????? @Miami

    4 Sun, Sep 30 WIN vs Cleveland

    5 Sun, Oct 7 LOSE @ Los Angeles

    6 Sun, Oct 14 WIN vs Seattle

    7 BYE WEEK

    8 Sun, Oct 28 WIN/?????Luck vs Indianapolis

    9 Thu, Nov 1 WIN @ San Francisco

    10 Sun, Nov 11 LOSE vs Los Angeles

    11 Sun, Nov 18 WIN @ Arizona

    12 Sun, Nov 25 LOSE @ Baltimore

    13 Sun, Dec 2 LOSE vs Kansas City

    14 Sun, Dec 9 LOSE vs Pittsburgh

    15 Sun, Dec 16 WIN @ Cincinnati

    16 Mon, Dec 24 LOSE vs Denver

    17 Sun, Dec 30 LOSE @ Kansas City

    1/2 game is worth about 50 cents.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    I like Under the Raiders 8 +105 but I can also get Raiders Under 7.5 +151 which is of course 46 cents more for the 1/2 game.
    The NFL isn't my game so any opinions or comments are welcome.
    Also one question how do you think a 1/2 game is worth 46c seems a little high to me how about you?


    1 Mon, Sep 10 LOSE vs Los Angeles

    2 Sun, Sep 16 LOSE @Denver

    3 Sun, Sep 23 WIN??????? @Miami

    4 Sun, Sep 30 WIN vs Cleveland

    5 Sun, Oct 7 LOSE @ Los Angeles

    6 Sun, Oct 14 WIN vs Seattle

    7 BYE WEEK

    8 Sun, Oct 28 WIN/?????Luck vs Indianapolis

    9 Thu, Nov 1 WIN @ San Francisco

    10 Sun, Nov 11 LOSE vs Los Angeles

    11 Sun, Nov 18 WIN @ Arizona

    12 Sun, Nov 25 LOSE @ Baltimore

    13 Sun, Dec 2 LOSE vs Kansas City

    14 Sun, Dec 9 LOSE vs Pittsburgh

    15 Sun, Dec 16 WIN @ Cincinnati

    16 Mon, Dec 24 LOSE vs Denver

    17 Sun, Dec 30 LOSE @ Kansas City

    I think SF is overrated I was reluctant to give them a win at Miami from what I'm reading Miami maybe a much improved team. Arizona is Bradford down and Rosen in don't know what to make of that. My thinking is Bradford should be on the sidelines by Nov 18th. Pure guess on my part.
    They should Win at Cinn. Like I said not much into the NFL.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    I think taking the Raiders in a tight 7 or 8 game over under is a literal coin toss, they are pick across the board for the season and they have 8 games within 1.5 dog or fave, I think they are a real coin toss, just my opinion buddy!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    I think anything right at 7 or 8 plus money is a good bet, i think it would be like getting +money on coin flips really
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    Sorry Ot , DANSHAN , where you get your lines for the season ?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    http://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query?output=default&sdql=team%3DRaiders+and+season%3D2018&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    just ran my personal power ratings and i came up with 6.025 win for the raiders

    good luck OT
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    Danshan not sure you can use those numbers , line up for week one right now raiders are 3 pt home dogs
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    I just grab them as a rough guestimate, I did not actually run the number I am a month away from any NFL anything
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    i put the jets in your query ....lol not sure about those numbers
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    you think the jets win more than 4?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    this might be garbage I am not familar but its a good read
    https://www.thelines.com/nfl-opening-lines-2018/
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    you think the jets win more than 4?

    Absolutely
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    LOL, you are good loyal man, you and Heffernan could hang out!
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    OT, not sure if this is good or bad but reading the ny post this morning the VSIN top play is RAIDERS UN 8 +115 and that is from mitch moss
  • kdogkdog Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    this might be garbage I am not familar but its a good read
    https://www.thelines.com/nfl-opening-lines-2018/

    Using these but changing to the now available week 1 of +3, assuming a 6 point home field swing for the week 17 KC game (week 17 not in that link) and converting to probabilities I come up with 8.1012. Doesn't appear to be an edge either way, what a surprise. Injuries will most likely be the difference as they are with pretty much all NFL regular season win bets.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    jets96 wrote: »
    OT, not sure if this is good or bad but reading the ny post this morning the VSIN top play is RAIDERS UN 8 +115 and that is from mitch moss

    Well that will save me money. All eyes on the Raiders here and in the papers every day because we can't wait for them to come :rolleyes::thumbdown:
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    Not an NFL expert, MOF I can't beat the sides either. According to WSharp here are his easiest/hardest Strength of Sked(SOS).

    Easiest
    Blt
    Mia
    GB
    Det
    Cards

    Hardest
    Wash
    Tenn
    Jax
    PHL
    DAL
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