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    Default Help with MLB over under math

    I am looking at MLB totals and getting a litle confused, I hope someone can help me, I would really appreciate it.

    Example assuming -110 margin
    Giants U8 -110
    so that means the line is for like a decimal purpose that is 8.00 right?
    now if it was Giants U8 -120 what would it be decimal wise?
    say its 8
    -110 is 8.00
    -120 ?
    -130 ?
    where is the 7.75 more or less I assume its not perfect.

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    So you are modeling mlb, wnba and all the other sports. yet something as simple as this, you can't figure out?


    Based on these questions, its obvious whatever model you are using is something you just randomly put in and its probably not even a model but you call it that. I can't believe anyone on this forum even take you seriously. Whatever model you have is your putting numbers and stats in and it and then you have a play. Using the word model is a disgrace to anyone who actually models.


    Your model if you even showed it to someone legit would probably laugh at it because its because junk.

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    look at the last 10 picks I made across the platforms and tell me they are worth laughing at? The joke is on you if you think these people would share one single cent of knowledge with you or anyone, I am the closest thing to sharing knowledge with anyone. With your skill level you shoudl be begging me for more info not knocking me trying to find friends on here

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    they wont help you Donny I will, they hope you lose so they can make 10 cents off your dumb plays, I am not them. I am the little guy trying to make it, they are the enemy not me, pay attention, you might grab some knowledge from me.

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    you said you're proficient in python. scrape results from the last 69 mlb seasons, tabulate the scoring distributions, look at the push probabilities and figure it out yourself.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gobucks2 View Post
    you said you're proficient in python. scrape results from the last 69 mlb seasons, tabulate the scoring distributions, look at the push probabilities and figure it out yourself.
    thanks for that but that does not help me. I am trying to devise a system that tells me where the gap is on OUs.
    7/12 David Price Red Sox 8.65 9.13 9 O -110 -0.48 5.49%
    7/12 David Price Red Sox 8.65 9.15 9 O -111 -0.50 5.78%
    7/12 David Price Red Sox 8.65 9.10 9 U -101 -0.45 5.20%
    7/12 David Price Red Sox 8.65 9.08 9.5 U -122 -0.42 4.91%

    see the 9.13 9.10 and 9.08 those essentially should be the same and they are not and I cant figure out how to fix that.
    I am using this as my formula to try and get it
    =if(I9="","",if(J9="O",I9-(K9-(-105))*0.025,I9+(K9-(-105))*0.025))

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    I’ve no idea what any of that means. Don’t know what any of the columns are. Have you ever heard of headers?

    I know what you’re trying to do. What I said will help you do it.

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    gobucks lets keep it real simple for me please

    lets assume a game is at
    Under 8 -105 Over 8 -105 can we both agree that a decimal way to say that is 8.00?

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    and if we can agree to that what is the decimal equivalent of this
    Under 8 -110 Over 8 +100

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    I am guessing like 7.85 or something but I am trying to get the equation to get closer.
    I need a fairly accurate decimal number to determine where to bet

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    The way you’re doing this is rough and imperfect as it is, so you can just make something up and be close to a reasonable answer with some common sense. You’re trying to derive a precise equation for an imprecise method. Doesn’t make a lot of sense.

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    can you guide me on a better way to do it
    Example I make a line of 8.71
    and the game is 9.5U -115 how would I know how close I am to 9.5U -115 without a decimal conversion. I cannot model it a different way that would easily convert to 9.5U -115 without some sort of conversion, right?

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    “Can you guide me on a better way to do it” are you shitting me? I gave you a better way to do it 5 posts up in this thread.

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    gobucks lets keep it real simple for me please

    lets assume a game is at
    Under 8 -105 Over 8 -105 can we both agree that a decimal way to say that is 8.00?

    - - - Updated - - -

    and if we can agree to that what is the decimal equivalent of this
    Under 8 -110 Over 8 +100

    - - - Updated - - -

    I am guessing like 7.85 or something but I am trying to get the equation to get closer.
    I need a fairly accurate decimal number to determine where to bet
    just tell me how to solve this one scenario and I can figure the rest out from there!

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    I am looking at MLB totals and getting a litle confused, I hope someone can help me, I would really appreciate it.

    Example assuming -110 margin
    Giants U8 -110
    so that means the line is for like a decimal purpose that is 8.00 right?
    now if it was Giants U8 -120 what would it be decimal wise?
    say its 8
    -110 is 8.00
    -120 ?
    -130 ?
    where is the 7.75 more or less I assume its not perfect.
    Seems pretty straightforward. You need 6 columns like this
    Untitled.jpg

    A2= the odds, -110, -120 +150 etc
    B2 is the total, 7.5, 8, etc
    C2 is this formula =IF(A2<0,(A2)/((A2)-100),IF(A2>0,((100)/((A2)+100))))
    D2 is this: =(C2)/(1-C2)
    E2 is this: =POWER(D2,0.556)
    F2 is this: =(B2*E2/(1+E2))*2

    changing the juice will manipulate the columns and spit out the projected runs in the F2 cell for the game. Keep in mind though that you will need to remove the juice with a vig removal calculator prior to entering the juice into the A2 cell or you will simply get the amount of runs expected including the rake. So if the book is offering O8 -110 U8 -110 both sides entered here will spit out 8.2 expected runs instead of the actual projection the book is offering of exactly 8 runs. Hope that helps

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    thank you very much I will try that right away and thanks for the help!

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    that formula is the right idea but not correct it
    if you have
    8U -117 it gives 8.35
    8O -117 it gives 8.35
    its not using the O U into consideration
    can we modify it so it goes up or down based on the condition of O and U?

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    and its a little off
    12O -107 is not 12.23 its more like 12.05
    thanks for the help though, really appreciate it and if you can help anymore it would be great!

    - - - Updated - - -

    I think this fixes the over under problem
    =if(J12="O",(R12)/(1-R12),(1-R12)/(R12))

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    I think the power is too strong

    - - - Updated - - -

    more like this
    =POWER(S13,0.01)

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    that overcooks it, I cant get it, I will keep trying anyway, thanks, any more ideas would be greatly appreciated!

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    oh well anymore help if new guy ever comes back!