Betting Talk

CFL Picks 2018

danshandanshan Senior Member
edited August 2018 in Sports Betting
6/29 Hamilton U58.5
«134

Comments

  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    6-29 Winnipeg +4.5
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    I am not sure I am ready for the primetime the way the lines moved.
    Record before 6-30 games 1-1 -.1Units
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    When do they post the lines with decent limits for the CFL any vets know?
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    CFL now. Boy, you are working it.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    and man I don think I am ready, I thought i had something going with it from week 1-3 but it did not work out that way. I will try a couple more weeks and if it does not get ++++CLV quickly, I will fold up shop!
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    Does not seem your area of expertise. But probably some value to be had.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    LOL, none of this stuff is my area of expertise. I have zero clue what I am doing, everyday is like a new adventure, I change models faster than JFK
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    7-7
    Toronto Argonauts +5 -104
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    7-7 BC Lions U56.5
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    Record before 7-19 Games
    2-2
    -.2 Units
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    7-12
    Stampeders -3
    I got -6 they played a few weeks ago and it was 7.5 so that would at least give you 5 so the 3 is low
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    <style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
    <colgroup><col style="width: 45px"><col width="99"><col width="50"><col width="54"></colgroup><tbody>
    date
    Team
    odds
    my line



    Team




    7/12
    Stampeders
    -3
    -6


    7/12
    Redblacks
    54.5
    53.5


    7/13
    Argonauts
    54
    53.5


    7/13
    Eskimos
    -7
    -6


    7/14
    Blue Bombers

    54.5


    7/14
    Lions

    -2

    </tbody>
  • donny2donny2 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    LOL, none of this stuff is my area of expertise. I have zero clue what I am doing, everyday is like a new adventure, I change models faster than JFK


    This about sums it up. You keep admitting you have no clue what you are doing. In other words, whatever model you are using is not even a model.


    Why should anyone even have any discussion with you then about lines when your lines are just randomly made up?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    yes true they are just made up, oh wait I forgot one thing line value, hmmm.. that seems to provide a different report, what could that mean, is it luck? I mean who would think it is something else, I mean since nobody argues differently including me. You are right Donny.
  • StJoes0610StJoes0610 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    donny2 wrote: »
    This about sums it up. You keep admitting you have no clue what you are doing. In other words, whatever model you are using is not even a model.


    Why should anyone even have any discussion with you then about lines when your lines are just randomly made up?

    look at your post history, its hilarious. youre obsessed with danshan.



    Researcher: The average radio listener listens for eighteen minutes. The average Howard Stern fan listens for - are you ready for this? - an hour and twenty minutes.
    Pig Vomit: How can that be?
    Researcher: Answer most commonly given? "I want to see what he'll say next."
    Pig Vomit: Okay, fine. But what about the people who hate Stern?
    Researcher: Good point. The average Stern hater listens for two and a half hours a day.
    Pig Vomit: But... if they hate him, why do they listen?
    Researcher: Most common answer? "I want to see what he'll say next."
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    I really dont understand why these guys dont argue, chat, compare notes, call me out, whatever. I really enjoy discussing and learning
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    7-21 Argonauts O50.5
    7-19 Roughriders +11
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    7-21 Argonauts O50.5
    7-19 Roughriders +11

    What is the point of this danshan?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    really its a tune up for the NFL season. the CFL will help me build a better NFL model. I really dont see the point of posting at all really. I do not want to be a tout and I firmly am the only one who believes I have talent and some good lines on the forum wont change that.
    I am beating the line on nearly every sport I am capping, my baseball since the change has been stellar, cfl is doing way better and the WNBA I personally dont believe the line is sharp and the SDB shows that it is not, the WNBA lines are not effecient so beating them means nothing.
    So to answer your question in one sentence because I dont have anyone else to talk to about this stuff and the forum lets me talk to myself about it and hold myself accountable for picks.

    My modeling is completely different than anyone else and even if I had someone to share with, they would be talking about righties and lefties and Bullpens and I would laugh because I think all that is in the line already. in the wnba they would say pace means something and I would laugh because pace is in the line. they would say in football turnovers and TOP mean something and I would laugh and call turnovers luck and in the line already.

    I believe the line is sharp and if you are not beating the shit out of the line, you are going to lose maybe not today or tomorrow but you will lose. I mean how hard is it to figure out who is the winner in sports betting, the books they are the winners, consistent long term winners, if the books are the most consistent long term winners and they take bets on both sides of everything how do they do it. they beat the line, period! They dont handicap if Tom Brady is going to do better against a 2 deep D or if the Ravens playing a bear is going to make the over a good play because it will cause opponents to throw more. they dont, they beat the line!
    Remember losers go away so when you come here you rarely see (a few) losers talking so much, its always the winners talking and losers go away into the night. so all we read is winners. we dont calculate possible loss% we calculate possible win%. you dont see searches for a calculate loss calculators. People see winners and want to become winners without the work and understanding. I am still learning and I hope one day, I understand it better and the way for me to do that is with 2 things.
    DO NOT do what everyone else does
    try, track, adjust, retry
    good luck to you R40 and trust me, my cfl will win, I will have positive cash at the end of the day! Why, not because I know shit about football but because my clv will be positive by the end!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    NBA O/U

    <tbody>
    [TH="align: center"]O/U:[/TH]
    13960-14062-535 (0.38, 49.8%)


    </tbody>

    WNBA O/U

    <tbody>
    [TH="align: center"]O/U:[/TH]
    808-854-22 (-0.01, 48.6%)



    </tbody>

    - - - Updated - - -

    which one looks more effecient to you?
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    really its a tune up for the NFL season. the CFL will help me build a better NFL model. I really dont see the point of posting at all really. I do not want to be a tout and I firmly am the only one who believes I have talent and some good lines on the forum wont change that.
    I am beating the line on nearly every sport I am capping, my baseball since the change has been stellar, cfl is doing way better and the WNBA I personally dont believe the line is sharp and the SDB shows that it is not, the WNBA lines are not effecient so beating them means nothing.
    So to answer your question in one sentence because I dont have anyone else to talk to about this stuff and the forum lets me talk to myself about it and hold myself accountable for picks.

    My modeling is completely different than anyone else and even if I had someone to share with, they would be talking about righties and lefties and Bullpens and I would laugh because I think all that is in the line already. in the wnba they would say pace means something and I would laugh because pace is in the line. they would say in football turnovers and TOP mean something and I would laugh and call turnovers luck and in the line already.

    I believe the line is sharp and if you are not beating the shit out of the line, you are going to lose maybe not today or tomorrow but you will lose. I mean how hard is it to figure out who is the winner in sports betting, the books they are the winners, consistent long term winners, if the books are the most consistent long term winners and they take bets on both sides of everything how do they do it. they beat the line, period! They dont handicap if Tom Brady is going to do better against a 2 deep D or if the Ravens playing a bear is going to make the over a good play because it will cause opponents to throw more. they dont, they beat the line!
    Remember losers go away so when you come here you rarely see (a few) losers talking so much, its always the winners talking and losers go away into the night. so all we read is winners. we dont calculate possible loss% we calculate possible win%. you dont see searches for a calculate loss calculators. People see winners and want to become winners without the work and understanding. I am still learning and I hope one day, I understand it better and the way for me to do that is with 2 things.
    DO NOT do what everyone else does
    try, track, adjust, retry
    good luck to you R40 and trust me, my cfl will win, I will have positive cash at the end of the day! Why, not because I know shit about football but because my clv will be positive by the end!

    Well alrighty then.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    LOL,did that answer your question, LMAO

    - - - Updated - - -

    guy asks what time is it and gets this story about a whale and at the end of the 45 minute story has to ask again what time it is, talk about long winded!

    - - - Updated - - -

    guy asks what time is it and gets this story about a whale and at the end of the 45 minute story has to ask again what time it is, talk about long winded!
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    I was just wondering because you were wasting your time on WNBA. I would like to see what you can do against college football and basketball. You should be pretty good at totals at least.

    - - - Updated - - -
    danshan wrote: »

    I believe the line is sharp and if you are not beating the shit out of the line, you are going to lose maybe not today or tomorrow but you will lose. I mean how hard is it to figure out who is the winner in sports betting, the books they are the winners, consistent long term winners, if the books are the most consistent long term winners and they take bets on both sides of everything how do they do it. they beat the line, period! They dont handicap if Tom Brady is going to do better against a 2 deep D or if the Ravens playing a bear is going to make the over a good play because it will cause opponents to throw more. they dont, they beat the line!

    This is not quite right. The books win because the market takes all those things into consideration. You cannot outguess the market in total on average. But you can outguess the market on individual games by taking those things into consideration and be more right than the market.

    When the books make their own numbers, they lose at every sport.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    I think NBA and NFL, I will do OK, NFL A too few games and super competive and sharp, NCAAF will be interesting I am concerned about pure number of schools to rank, I am gonna try to see what NCAAF looks like but man I am struggling to see if I can make it happen! NBA will be killer, I cant imagine missing on it but in the water always lurks that Variance monster. What about you what are you doing NCAAF only?
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I think NBA and NFL, I will do OK, NFL A too few games and super competive and sharp, NCAAF will be interesting I am concerned about pure number of schools to rank, I am gonna try to see what NCAAF looks like but man I am struggling to see if I can make it happen! NBA will be killer, I cant imagine missing on it but in the water always lurks that Variance monster. What about you what are you doing NCAAF only?

    Yes, the number of schools is what makes college football easier to win at. Everybody has a handle on the Jets and Eagles. They do not have a handle on Air Force and Colorado State.

    I bet college football because it is easy to follow since it is played once per week and there is lots of information available to make a judgment and I have been predicting football since I was 10 years old so have a good sense of how to handicap it. It has the perfect combination of factors that allow you to do well as a casual gambler.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    I think the internet has done the same thing to sports it did to poker when poker stars started, made it real competitive! I think all sports doors get knocked on these days by modelers. I get really confused to be honest, perfect example is the game the other day
    no injuries, same teams played the week before and the line was 48 and they scored like 49 in the previous game and this week the line is 54. I mean what did they add 4 minutes on to the clock this week, wtf is that. I think that shows me that you cant trust lines on SPECIFIC games. what do you think of that scenario? Trust me anything I think that mattered did not change!
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I think the internet has done the same thing to sports it did to poker when poker stars started, made it real competitive! I think all sports doors get knocked on these days by modelers. I get really confused to be honest, perfect example is the game the other day
    no injuries, same teams played the week before and the line was 48 and they scored like 49 in the previous game and this week the line is 54. I mean what did they add 4 minutes on to the clock this week, wtf is that. I think that shows me that you cant trust lines on SPECIFIC games. what do you think of that scenario? Trust me anything I think that mattered did not change!

    Yes, the internet has made it more competitive. But at the same time, prior to the internet, you had to handicap by reading your local newspaper and having no access to box scores on anything but Top 25 teams if you were lucky. No info at all on west coast games. Not even a score until Tuesday. Try betting by reading the Akron newspaper as your only source.

    The models take away some things but give back on others. That's the problem you have. You have to be able to outmodel. All I have to do is wait for a line mistake.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    yes I have to outmodel and I believe the only way to do that is by doing something different. these guys use darn near the exact same model and they know it, you think if they all say I got -130 I got -127 i got -125 that somewhere in there is value, of course not. The way to win is you got to be doing something different or you are just hoping the sports illustraded cover of T brady moved the line enough to get a little juice. The touts did a really good marketing job of selling that "bet the dogs and the unders" I make a ton on the dogs in line value compared to favorites because nerfs and squares are now betting the dogs and moving the line. They hear all day from the twitter touts take the dog and the under, look at betting forums most usernames have something to do with the dogs! betthedogs, dogbettor, winwithdogs and tons more. They sold that idea on the nerfs and squares and now they do it! I think the bears can win today why oh well they are the road dog and the book i read and the guy on twitter said the dogs are always the smart play but in reality the fair number was 7.5 and he bet it and his 1000 buddies and now its 6.5. You can see the effect on baseball for sure if you look deep into the stats

    - - - Updated - - -

    look if you bet every favorite in the MLB in the last 3 years you would be up

    <tbody>
    [TH="align: center"]SU:[/TH]
    3648-2528 (0.89, 59.1%)
    avg line: -152.1 / 139.9



    </tbody>

    that right there is thanks to the touts! they taught the nerfs and squares to bet the dog and moved the line enough so the faves could get some value too!

    - - - Updated - - -

    Away dog in baseball is a horrible bet now because the touts taught the nerfs!
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    yes I have to outmodel and I believe the only way to do that is by doing something different. these guys use darn near the exact same model and they know it, you think if they all say I got -130 I got -127 i got -125 that somewhere in there is value, of course not. The way to win is you got to be doing something different or you are just hoping the sports illustraded cover of T brady moved the line enough to get a little juice. The touts did a really good marketing job of selling that "bet the dogs and the unders" I make a ton on the dogs in line value compared to favorites because nerfs and squares are now betting the dogs and moving the line. They hear all day from the twitter touts take the dog and the under, look at betting forums most usernames have something to do with the dogs! betthedogs, dogbettor, winwithdogs and tons more. They sold that idea on the nerfs and squares and now they do it! I think the bears can win today why oh well they are the road dog and the book i read and the guy on twitter said the dogs are always the smart play but in reality the fair number was 7.5 and he bet it and his 1000 buddies and now its 6.5. You can see the effect on baseball for sure if you look deep into the stats

    Squares don't bet dogs. There was some truth to that at one time so it is still repeated. People bet their opinions so they are more apt to bet favorites because it is psychologically natural to bet the better team. You can always think a team is going to win by more points. It is much harder to bet underdogs.

    The reason the dogs move is because the modelers hit them. Not the squares.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    Square= someone like me who knows enough to bet stupid, I know the Pats are way better than the Browns
    Nerf =someone who thinks they know more than the square, I know that the book I read on bettting said big dogs and the road!

    the line shows it, the dog line is over bet and that is why the value is in the faves, Cappers are getting crushed because the value is in the fave and they cant believe that or wont believe that. it is the top .000001% that say I bet wherever the value is and actually bet there, dont forget the dumb part of that (betting things that have value but will never happen). it is hard to bet the dumb ass dogs over and over because of line value look at this this is really hard to keep betting

    <style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
    <colgroup><col style="width: 48px"><col width="113"><col width="55"><col width="43"><col width="65"><col width="65"><col width="68"></colgroup><tbody>
    Date
    Team
    My Line
    Close
    Bet At
    Bet Amt
    Result


    6/23
    Royals

    292
    288
    0.35
    L


    6/23
    Tigers

    221
    236
    0.42
    L


    6/16
    Blue Jays

    212
    199
    0.50
    W


    6/29
    Royals

    190
    194
    0.52
    L


    6/19
    Twins

    181
    155
    0.65
    W


    6/21
    Mariners

    170
    180
    0.56
    L


    7/14
    Mariners

    166
    155
    0.65
    L


    6/16
    Twins

    165
    190
    0.53
    W


    6/26
    Phillies

    165
    194
    0.52
    L


    7/3
    Orioles

    152
    150
    0.67
    L


    6/24
    Rangers

    151
    170
    0.59
    L


    6/30
    Yankees

    137
    129
    0.78
    L


    6/26
    Rockies

    135
    119
    0.84
    L


    6/22
    Mets

    133
    137
    0.73
    L


    6/12
    Nationals

    131
    156
    0.64
    L

    </tbody>
Sign In or Register to comment.