1. #16
    Senior Member BetThemDogs's Avatar
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    Megapowers88

    "This thread is so awesome and OT, you are the man, I wish there was something more impactful than just hitting the THANKS button....but, thanks again!"

    I hear he is in dire need of a steak dinner!

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  3. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Old-Timer View Post
    Just a thought may mean nothing but it reminds me of Tommy John no not the surgery the pitcher. I know I’m old. Anyway when he pitched on short rest his sinker would fall off the table. We bet him all the time on short rest and it’s funny we use to bet him at the stardust with hand written tickets lol. Anyway maybe it’s a little similar that Vargas who’s not a power pitcher is more effective with his breaking stuff with a somewhat tired arm. I mean he did win 18 games last year a fluke ok but could be serviceable and maybe a bet on short rest. A 1st 5 that is.
    that's a good point. i'm (sadly) a mets fan so ive been burned by him all season, so I pussied out and didnt play it and trust me it was eating away at me all night as hes throwing scoreless innings. anyway, I appreciate the thoughtful tip.

    I am not a spring chicken either - but I did think the surgery not the pitcher.

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    Senior Member Old-Timer's Avatar
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    Yea I've been around and out here a long time. They don't start pitchers on short rest much anymore unless it's in the playoffs and you would mostly look at a 5 inning line in that case. Can blame you even if you knew he would throw a good 5 the Mets don't hit. Don't beat yourself up this time the bet won next time the bet can lose.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Old-Timer View Post
    Just a thought may mean nothing but it reminds me of Tommy John no not the surgery the pitcher.
    I see people get inducted to the Hall of Fame for "contributions to the game" and always wondered, why not Tommy John? Few contributed more than being the guinea pig to the surgery that would prolong many pitchers careers. That plus a very good career together should have gotten him in.

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  8. #20
    Senior Member Old-Timer's Avatar
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    Interesting thought but it maybe off base will see shortly. The Warriors lost 5 1st Q's of the 7 played against the Rockets. Now granted the Cav's aren't the Rockets but does it say something to the Warrior mindset. I've seen them come out sloppy and then as we all know the 3rd Q trend that's gone can't play that anymore but I'm wondering about playing the Cav's +4.5 1st Q. Been listening and reading and this play seems like a good one. Hey the Warriors may come out like gangbusters but I believe they're so good they flip the switch 2nd half or anytime they want and most times the light goes on.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Old-Timer View Post
    Interesting thought but it maybe off base will see shortly. The Warriors lost 5 1st Q's of the 7 played against the Rockets. Now granted the Cav's aren't the Rockets but does it say something to the Warrior mindset. I've seen them come out sloppy and then as we all know the 3rd Q trend that's gone can't play that anymore but I'm wondering about playing the Cav's +4.5 1st Q. Been listening and reading and this play seems like a good one. Hey the Warriors may come out like gangbusters but I believe they're so good they flip the switch 2nd half or anytime they want and most times the light goes on.
    The Warriors 3rd Quarter in these playoffs have been fantastic!

    This continues an amazing trend for Golden State. The Warriors have now outscored opponents by 127 points in their 17 playoff third quarter.
    Here are all their playoff third quarters

    GAME 1 VS. SPURS: 29-22 after leading by 16.
    GAME 2 VS. SPURS: 33-22 after trailing by 6.
    GAME 3 VS. SPURS: 32-26 after leading by 6.
    GAME 4 VS. SPURS: 29-21 after trailing by 14.
    GAME 5 VS. SPURS: 30-27 after leading by 11.
    GAME 1 VS. PELICANS: 27-19 after leading by 21.
    GAME 2 VS. PELICANS: 30-31 after leading by 3.
    GAME 3 VS. PELICANS: 19-30 after trailing by 8.
    GAME 4 VS. PELICANS: 33-19 after leading by 7.
    GAME 5 VS. PELICANS: 36-19 after leading by 3.
    GAME 1 VS. ROCKETS: 31-24 after a tie game.
    GAME 2 VS. ROCKETS: 29-31 after trailing by 14.
    GAME 3 VS. ROCKETS: 34-24 after leading by 11.
    GAME 4 VS. ROCKETS: 34-17 after trailing by 7.
    GAME 5 VS. ROCKETS: 27-26 after a tie game.
    GAME 6 VS. ROCKETS: 33-16 after trailing by 10.
    GAME 7 VS. ROCKETS: 33-15 after trailing by 11.

    What makes the third quarter so special?

    Golden State is like a lot like a lion; for all intents and purposes, they’re the king of the NBA jungle. The Warriors play with their food in the first and second quarters. They hang around just enough to keep things interesting.

    And then it’ll be Durant who explodes in the third quarter. Or maybe it’s Curry who drains a demoralizing 35-foot three-pointer that fuels a run, like he did in Game 6. Maybe it’s Thompson who scores without dribbling. Golden State has a number of weapons. In the third quarter they all come alive.

    The Warriors led the NBA in the regular season, averaging 30.2 points per game in the third quarter.

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    Senior Member Old-Timer's Avatar
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    Tonight I made double bets on the RHE’S and FG Totals. Before I start yes the 1stQ Cleveland +4.5 wins. Sad Hill an 80% FT shooter gets the dry throat and shorts a FT and JR Smith doesn’t know score and starts running away from the basket. Let’s not forget that late bad call block (Tony Brothers at his best) at least in my opinion. Ok enough of this game.

    Let me start off with something but first understand this is about the NFL and before the 2pt conversion. Anytime I liked an underdog and was getting 2.5pts or less I would take the ML. Understand I had to like the game didn’t do it with all 2.5pt or less dogs. I lost when the favorite would win by 1or2 which happen very rarely. I think the worst year I may have had two losses that way, but I tracked it and losing even money and winning + money +120/+125 whatever I always showed a + on those games. That was the way to play a team getting less than a field.goal IMO. It’s New game with the 2pter today

    Okay fast forward to the RHE,S and FG Totals. I believe the way to play it is FG Totals. The juice you can save will add up quickly on any loses and sometimes you get a +#. Let me say it can happen and most likely will happen but let’s see if I can come with an example. Let say we have a 8 -105 FG Total and. 25 -110 or -115. Now a pitcher can walk three guys and then give up a grand slam. So now your halfway to your total but it’s only a 5 on the RHE’S which is only 1/5 towards that bet. How often will that happen. sometimes you may want to play one or the other that I’ll leave that up to you if you want to play at all.

    Just feel like typing and putting out an opinion on this bet. I going to post it every day the way I’ve been doing it. RHE’S and FG and PP865 if you want to jump in I’ll do the FG if you want. I’m retired you just moved have a family I assume so I can do it if you like.

    Opinions are welcome and whichever way you decide to play them if at all GL.

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  12. #23
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    Don't forget the back to back blatant missed calls mid 4th quarter. Durant was clean stripped by Lebron and it turns into a three point play after Looney tips in the missed free throw. Then the next possession LeBron get raked over the arm by Looney with no call.

    Adam Silver cannot be happy with the outcome.

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    OT,
    You're right about the juice. After you posted the juice for me was -120,-116,-120,-115 and -130 on the HRE. Now for the totals, -115,-105,-105, +100 and -115, big difference. These are very much correlated, you will get games where one will win and one will lose, but in the long run moneywise, if one wins the other will to because of the high correlation in these bets.

    Great job on these.

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    RHE seems to be the better way to go due to the example OT gives, but also consider that some pitchers (savvy vets, or big K types) have a penchant for wiggling out of trouble after a couple of hits, and the way most teams don't play for a run at a time anymore ('smallball') plus the reliance on the home run makes strikeouts much more prevalent in today's game...stringing singles together and 'moving the line' has given way to the all or nothing game where 35% of at bats result in HR's, K's or BB's...to me, it's a wash, more juice, lower limits on RHE, but more 'luck' or variance, whatever you want to call it, on the totals where you pay less juice and have more flexibility. Interesting topic, personally I play both for 1/2 unit each...thanks OT.

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    OT can you shoot me an email? Can ask admin for mine or VegasEndBoss if you have correspondence with him outside of here.

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    I sent an email for the email address for Vegasendboss

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    Quote Originally Posted by Old-Timer View Post
    I sent an email for the email address for Vegasendboss
    What email address did you use? I've tried admin@bettingtalk.com a couple of times with no reply.

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    Don't think he emailed admin, sounds like he emailed VEB to get in touch with me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bumpo View Post
    What email address did you use? I've tried admin@bettingtalk.com a couple of times with no reply.
    That's who I sent it to and received a reply that they sent it to him already.

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