Betting Talk

dr h

speedboyspeedboy Member
edited June 2018 in Sports Betting
people really paid $5000 to lose like that
«1

Comments

  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    -10 Sentence fragment
  • cshcsh Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Plenty of time left for his service length I believe. A lot of sharp players have had a rough go of variance to start the season, fwiw.
  • StJoes0610StJoes0610 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    csh wrote: »
    Plenty of time left for his service length I believe. A lot of sharp players have had a rough go of variance to start the season, fwiw.

    He is only going through June 10 this year, so unfortunately not a lot of time left.
  • cshcsh Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    StJoes0610 wrote: »
    He is only going through June 10 this year, so unfortunately not a lot of time left.

    That's a bit short. I guess ignore the first part of my message. Second part still holds true. Maybe he will give current customers a discount if he offers anything past that for this season.
  • StJoes0610StJoes0610 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    csh wrote: »
    That's a bit short. I guess ignore the first part of my message. Second part still holds true. Maybe he will give current customers a discount if he offers anything past that for this season.

    Yea we'll see. From the limited I know, I do think your other point is true and very interesting. V
  • CirclejerkCirclejerk Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    -10 Sentence fragment

    Hey Benny, Please don't check my grammar... Lol

    Good to see you posting.
    I miss your writing. Any good stories?
    How's the married life treating you? (I hope well)
    You gonna post any plays?

    GL.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    speedboy wrote: »
    people really paid $5000 to lose like that

    Regardless of cost, nothing is ever guaranteed.

    Is he releasing overnights still or did he shift to gameday releases with the higher service cost?
  • ericvandenericvanden Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I hope he doesn't have a service and just goes private. As a current subscriber, its obvious that he still maintains a strong edge. Sure, the -8 units that he is down on his service may be disappointing to some but there's no guarantees and its only a 100 game sample. I'm thinking the price increase this year was for a couple reasons. Weeding out the recreational bettors does 2 things. The people that are generally going to pay that price have likely been in the game for awhile and understand variance and can manage it both financially but also mentally. It's also easier to get the lines when there's less people betting them. Part of providing a service, also brings complaints and other issues from clients. Less clients, less complaining/issues. If he does provide a service past mid June, I hope he still charges $5k for 10 more weeks. If he is down, some won't continue with the service and will make it easier for others that stay on board to get down.
  • ericvandenericvanden Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    csh wrote: »
    Plenty of time left for his service length I believe. A lot of sharp players have had a rough go of variance to start the season, fwiw.

    This is true. A pretty sharp MLB group is down this year as well and from what I know, its around the same amount of units. They don't beat the closer nearly as strong as H but they play anything with the smallest amount of value. They are struggling a bit in terms of results but they have an edge and will keep betting until they don't.
  • golfguru1golfguru1 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    my opinion the hog rose in him, asking 5k from previous is a heck of an increase and with it increased pressure to produce, picks lose.

    Hope I am wrong but, I thought the increase from one season to another and reduced amount of games was a ticket to bad plays, gambling gods
    came out.

    GL to all, and Dr H wishing for a hot streak to end season for all of us.
  • RonyBallgameRonyBallgame Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    It's been a tough pill to swallow, but the most frustrating thing is the total inability to get the numbers. I can't believe that I am the only one that gets juiced 10-15 cents within 5 seconds of release/trying to play in. Hoping he finishes with a flourish but I can't continue to subscribe given this issue. H is obviously a very good baseball handicapper given his track record; this has just been a tough year for all involved.
  • baseballbaseball Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    It's been a tough pill to swallow, but the most frustrating thing is the total inability to get the numbers. I can't believe that I am the only one that gets juiced 10-15 cents within 5 seconds of release/trying to play in. Hoping he finishes with a flourish but I can't continue to subscribe given this issue. H is obviously a very good baseball handicapper given his track record; this has just been a tough year for all involved.

    When are releases?
  • StJoes0610StJoes0610 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    ericvanden wrote: »
    I hope he doesn't have a service and just goes private. As a current subscriber, its obvious that he still maintains a strong edge. Sure, the -8 units that he is down on his service may be disappointing to some but there's no guarantees and its only a 100 game sample. I'm thinking the price increase this year was for a couple reasons. Weeding out the recreational bettors does 2 things. The people that are generally going to pay that price have likely been in the game for awhile and understand variance and can manage it both financially but also mentally. It's also easier to get the lines when there's less people betting them. Part of providing a service, also brings complaints and other issues from clients. Less clients, less complaining/issues. If he does provide a service past mid June, I hope he still charges $5k for 10 more weeks. If he is down, some won't continue with the service and will make it easier for others that stay on board to get down.

    i agree with most of what you're saying here, and i certainly understand that even with a sparkling 56.43% win percentage it is completely normal to have the current run he is having. the one thing i think about is decreasing the duration of the service. certainly it can be viewed as just another way of also increasing prices, especially if he does offer the 2nd half of the season for another 5k or something. what gives me pause is whether its a good idea to lower the amount of plays you release knowing that the smaller sample size could lead to a negative variance run having too big of an effect on the subscription period. that lends itself to unsatisfied customers, which in general is a bad thing for business (obv). now, he is clearly smart enough to understand what i am pointing out, and what he chose to do. i guess my main point is, while i understand in relation to any service (H, RAS, whatever) that "nothing is guaranteed" and i understand the math behind a negative variance run, it seems to me like it would be a good idea to set up your offerings to factor that into what you offer clients. but, i also that is probably naive in terms of expecting clients to commit to a long term service, understand bad runs will happen, etc. etc. etc. i dont really have a point i guess ha.
  • RonyBallgameRonyBallgame Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Releases are within 30 minutes of the last game going each night.
  • StJoes0610StJoes0610 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    rony fwiw i have the same problem re getting the release number. recently, ive just been waiting until the morning with the lowered line movement.
  • vegasendbossvegasendboss Member
    edited May 2018
    guy is up 140.77u in the last 5 years, gets unprecedented market respect in his selections, an average of 12.33c of CLV (2.15%) on each bet, is down 9u in <110 sample size and people are complaining.

    what a time to be alive.
  • StJoes0610StJoes0610 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    guy is up 140.77u in the last 5 years, gets unprecedented market respect in his selections, an average of 12.33c of CLV (2.15%) on each bet, is down 9u in <110 sample size and people are complaining.

    what a time to be alive.

    outside of the first comment, this is a bit of an exaggeration.
  • vegasendbossvegasendboss Member
    edited May 2018
    StJoes0610 wrote: »
    outside of the first comment, this is a bit of an exaggeration.

    what part?

    - up 140.77 units in the past 5 years (this is verifiable)
    - gets unprecedented market respect (you can't complain about numbers moving too fast and then not agree he gets respect from marketplace... sorry)
    - average of 12.33c of CLV (2.15%) on each bet.... (this is also easily verifiable and on his site)
    - being down 9u on a sample size of less than 110 bets and getting complaints is absolutely ridiculous for all the above reasons.
    - 'what a time to be alive' was be being polite on how i really feel about people complaining on his record
  • StJoes0610StJoes0610 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    my comment wasnt clear - i mean the idea that people are complaining (other than the first post), not that any of that data is incorrect.


    edited to add the parenthesis.
  • vegasendbossvegasendboss Member
    edited May 2018
    wut.
    -the thread starts with someone saying "people really paid $5000.00 to lose like that"
    -then it went to people thinking the losing was because he pissed of the gambling gods (ffs) "I thought the increase from one season to another and reduced amount of games was a ticket to bad plays, gambling gods came out."
    - then we complain about being able to get the release number, when he gives 2 minute notice on release and anyone with a pulse should be able to get the right number

    I just cant even believe what I read, honestly. $5000.00 is an absolute JOKE of a price for the value he is giving his clients. He could get 100x that from any private group just to SCALP his releases. Not to mention the amounts of people who would love for him to stop releasing plays pubicly - its just bananas man.

    WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE.
  • StJoes0610StJoes0610 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    out of curiosity, are you a subscriber?
  • vegasendbossvegasendboss Member
    edited May 2018
    StJoes0610 wrote: »
    out of curiosity, are you a subscriber?

    don't think that makes a difference in my argument, i assure you I am not being biased, i would much rather him not release his games on overnight limits - i PROMISE you there's a lot of very smart people that would pay good $ for him not to do it.

    It blows my mind that people talk crap about the VERY SMALL number of people who release their games to the public and actually have a real edge. And like i said, it would increase my bottom line if they stopped entirely. Yet here I am defending them, even though we compete for the same EV. It really is ludicrous.
  • StJoes0610StJoes0610 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    don't think that makes a difference in my argument, i assure you I am not being biased, i would much rather him not release his games on overnight limits - i PROMISE you there's a lot of very smart people that would pay good $ for him not to do it.

    It blows my mind that people talk crap about the VERY SMALL number of people who release their games to the public and actually have a real edge. And like i said, it would increase my bottom line if they stopped entirely. Yet here I am defending them, even though we compete for the same EV. It really is ludicrous.

    im asking out of curiosity because you said "I just cant even believe what I read, honestly. $5000.00 is an absolute JOKE of a price for the value he is giving his clients. He could get 100x that from any private group just to SCALP his releases. Not to mention the amounts of people who would love for him to stop releasing plays pubicly - its just bananas man. "

    are you a subscriber?
  • vegasendbossvegasendboss Member
    edited May 2018
    StJoes0610 wrote: »
    im asking out of curiosity because you said "I just cant even believe what I read, honestly. $5000.00 is an absolute JOKE of a price for the value he is giving his clients. He could get 100x that from any private group just to SCALP his releases. Not to mention the amounts of people who would love for him to stop releasing plays pubicly - its just bananas man. "

    are you a subscriber?

    rather not comment on that as it really has no bearing on my post/opinion and its private info. But one thing is clear, when after 10 mins after the last game the board lights up like a x-mas tree on a baseball game, you can bet good money its because HE originated that move. THAT'S how you can tell he has a real edge.
  • StJoes0610StJoes0610 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    rather not comment on that as it really has no bearing on my post/opinion and its private info. But one thing is clear, when after 10 mins after the last game the board lights up like a x-mas tree on a baseball game, you can bet good money its because HE originated that move. THAT'S how you can tell he has a real edge.

    so youre not a subscriber. thats fine, but it its pretty funny to make all these comments yet you dont even subscribe yourself.
  • vegasendbossvegasendboss Member
    edited May 2018
    StJoes0610 wrote: »
    so youre not a subscriber. thats fine, but it its pretty funny to make all these comments yet you dont even subscribe yourself.

    sigh. because i cant disclose everything i do privately on a public forum doesn't automatically mean 'i'm not a subscriber and therefore all my opinions are wrong'... why is this the stance you are taking instead of thinking critically and trying to understand what i'm saying.
  • StJoes0610StJoes0610 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    wut.
    -the thread starts with someone saying "people really paid $5000.00 to lose like that"
    -then it went to people thinking the losing was because he pissed of the gambling gods (ffs) "I thought the increase from one season to another and reduced amount of games was a ticket to bad plays, gambling gods came out."
    - then we complain about being able to get the release number, when he gives 2 minute notice on release and anyone with a pulse should be able to get the right number

    I just cant even believe what I read, honestly. $5000.00 is an absolute JOKE of a price for the value he is giving his clients. He could get 100x that from any private group just to SCALP his releases. Not to mention the amounts of people who would love for him to stop releasing plays pubicly - its just bananas man.

    WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE.

    well mr big swinging dick, i KNOW that you're not a subscriber because he isnt using a release warning this year.

    so, even after your comments "honestly. $5000.00 is an absolute JOKE of a price for the value he is giving his clients. He could get 100x that from any private group just to SCALP his releases. Not to mention the amounts of people who would love for him to stop releasing plays pubicly - its just bananas man" for some reason you're not a subscriber? thats funny man, quite an opinion for someone who didnt drop the $ themselves. people lying on an internet forum. who would've guessed!?

    anyway, back to the point at hand. to, like you said, "think critically" about your comments:

    1) as i said, TWICE, the first comment notwithstanding re the complaining
    2) i took the "gambling gods" comment as tongue-in-cheek. i didnt think people actually believed gambling gods were deciding the Ws and Ls.
    3) discussing some of the known complications of getting release (books adding delays, taking down lines, reducing overnight maxes) isnt complaining to me, its helpful to understand how others are doing.
    4) "what a time to be alive" is a polite way to comment on how you really feel about people "complaining" about his record, huh? well, as someone who actually dropped the 5k, you can fuck off trying to act all sharp, you charlatan. but who knows, "because you cant disclose everything you do privately on a public forum doesn't automatically mean youre not a subscriber", right?
  • vegasendbossvegasendboss Member
    edited May 2018
    StJoes0610 wrote: »
    well mr big swinging dick, i KNOW that you're not a subscriber because he isnt using a release warning this year.

    so, even after your comments "honestly. $5000.00 is an absolute JOKE of a price for the value he is giving his clients. He could get 100x that from any private group just to SCALP his releases. Not to mention the amounts of people who would love for him to stop releasing plays pubicly - its just bananas man" for some reason you're not a subscriber? thats funny man, quite an opinion for someone who didnt drop the $ themselves. people lying on an internet forum. who would've guessed!?

    anyway, back to the point at hand. to, like you said, "think critically" about your comments:

    1) as i said, TWICE, the first comment notwithstanding re the complaining
    2) i took the "gambling gods" comment as tongue-in-cheek. i didnt think people actually believed gambling gods were deciding the Ws and Ls.
    3) discussing some of the known complications of getting release (books adding delays, taking down lines, reducing overnight maxes) isnt complaining to me, its helpful to understand how others are doing.
    4) "what a time to be alive" is a polite way to comment on how you really feel about people "complaining" about his record, huh? well, as someone who actually dropped the 5k, you can fuck off trying to act all sharp, you charlatan. but who knows, "because you cant disclose everything you do privately on a public forum doesn't automatically mean youre not a subscriber", right?

    god. i really regret getting into these arguments and for some reason i keep dying in this ditch. its such a massive leak in my game. shame on me.

    the release time was just a way to illustrate how RAS/H/? other sharp people try to maximize the chance people get their release numbers. Being or not being a subscriber does NOT change the point I was making at all not does it change its validity.

    the rest of your message was you just spewing nonsense and im just going to chose to move on from it rather than engage with it and have a full blown argument about what i know or dont know or whats sharp or not sharp because i obviously cant disclose everything and it will lead to us 'agree'ing to disagree' in the end of a long debate and me being mad at myself for wasting my time.

    so im going to be disciplined and just move on now from it.
  • StJoes0610StJoes0610 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    god. i really regret getting into these arguments and for some reason i keep dying in this ditch. its such a massive leak in my game. shame on me.

    the release time was just a way to illustrate how RAS/H/? other sharp people try to maximize the chance people get their release numbers. Being or not being a subscriber does NOT change the point I was making at all not does it change its validity.

    the rest of your message was you just spewing nonsense and im just going to chose to move on from it rather than engage with it and have a full blown argument about what i know or dont know or whats sharp or not sharp because i obviously cant disclose everything and it will lead to us 'agree'ing to disagree' in the end of a long debate and me being mad at myself for wasting my time.

    so im going to be disciplined and just move on now from it.

    hahah youre totally right man. thanks for taking the high road on this one. ill see you over at pregame.com for your lock of the week.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I wish he would have took the high road about 20 posts ago on every thread, LOL
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