Betting Talk

WNBA Picks

1456810

Comments

  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    I wish him the best, he made a nice pick today with the over 162 that was nice!
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    why was that a good pick ,they didnt play yet ...or do you mean you were leaning that way?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    <style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
    <colgroup><col style="width: 43px"><col width="42"><col width="83"><col width="58"></colgroup><tbody>
    7/15
    Chic
    Sky
    2


    7/15
    New
    Liberty
    166.5


    7/15
    Wash
    Mystics
    -2


    7/15
    Atla
    Dream
    163


    7/15
    Phoe
    Mercury
    -8.5


    7/15
    Indi
    Fever
    162.5


    7/15
    Los
    Sparks
    -5.5


    7/15
    Las
    Aces
    160.5


    7/15
    Conn
    Sun
    165.5


    7/15
    Minn
    Lynx
    -5

    </tbody>

    I had it at 165.5 and I would have taken it at 162 if I would have seen it but I was out late last night and did not get to it this AM
    I bet Sky +4.5, Mystics +1.5 and Dream U167.5 ( the dream played them a few days ago and it was 164 and nothing sig changed)
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    7-17
    Liberty U169.5
    Sun U168.5
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    Liberty game they scored 62 in the 2nd quarter that would be 250 total in a game, LOL
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    I think I am doing something wrong, there is no way I get over 164 on that game and it closed at 171 and they are gonna score 200. I am going to keep posting but when you are following and betting someone you got to see these things, dont pay attention to win losses pay attention to when the line is way off, its not bad luck when the line is off by 2 or 3 points on quite a few games!. MY recommendation is to watch nmy picks for awhile until you start seeing me getting the good side of the line BEFORE you start betting them again!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    <style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
    <colgroup><col style="width: 100px"><col width="100"><col width="100"><col width="100"><col width="100"><col width="100"></colgroup><tbody>
    Date
    Team
    My Line
    Bet at
    Closing line
    Line moved good or bad




    7/10
    Aces
    2
    5
    3.5
    good


    7/10
    Sky
    172.5
    175.5
    175
    good


    7/11
    Dream
    159.5
    164
    164.5
    bad


    7/11
    Fever
    160.5
    157
    155.5
    bad


    7/13
    Fever
    5.5
    8
    10
    bad


    7/13
    Aces
    164.5
    161.5
    163.5
    good


    7/14
    Storm
    -5.5
    -4.5
    -4.5
    neither


    7/15
    Sky
    2
    4.5
    4.5
    neither


    7/15
    Mystics
    -2
    1.5
    -2.5
    great


    7/15
    Dream
    163
    167.5
    166
    good

    </tbody>
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    <style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
    <tbody>
    Date
    Team
    My Line
    Bet at
    Closing line
    Line moved good or bad



    7/10
    Aces
    2
    5
    3.5
    good


    7/10
    Sky
    172.5
    175.5
    175
    good


    7/11
    Dream
    159.5
    164
    164.5
    bad


    7/11
    Fever
    160.5
    157
    155.5
    bad


    7/13
    Fever
    5.5
    8
    10
    bad


    7/13
    Aces
    164.5
    161.5
    163.5
    good


    7/14
    Storm
    -5.5
    -4.5
    -4.5
    neither


    7/15
    Sky
    2
    4.5
    4.5
    neither


    7/15
    Mystics
    -2
    1.5
    -2.5
    great


    7/15
    Dream
    163
    167.5
    166
    good

    </tbody>

    this information right here is how you should track the people you follow forget the wins and losses, this tells you who you are dealing with and if they have a clue, whenever you think about tailing start a spreadhseet like this and do it just like this, do about 10 20 plays before you even consider paying for service or a bet. if you have to pay to find out ask to pay for 10 games to see if you like it, most guys will do it so they can get some money they dont care how much really, they work on bulk and change screennames as faster than I post on here! if they wont sell you 10 games only ask if they offer refunds and if they do pay and if there sheet looks like shit after 10 plays get a refund and move on. a guy with 3 bad 5 good and 2 neither (which is bad really) is not going to make you money!
  • KashmirKashmir Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I think I am doing something wrong, there is no way I get over 164 on that game and it closed at 171 and they are gonna score 200. I am going to keep posting but when you are following and betting someone you got to see these things, dont pay attention to win losses pay attention to when the line is way off, its not bad luck when the line is off by 2 or 3 points on quite a few games!. MY recommendation is to watch nmy picks for awhile until you start seeing me getting the good side of the line BEFORE you start betting them again!

    My number was 172.4
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    really that is interesting thanks for that info because I could not get 171 out of that game no matter how I tried, that is a true indication that I have zero clue about this game. I will keep investigating because being wrong is wrong!

    - - - Updated - - -
    Kashmir wrote: »
    My number was 172.4

    why did you not bet it if you had 172 it opened and sat around 167ish for awhile?

    - - - Updated - - -

    I mean they played each other a week ago and it was 164, so how now 172? to me that does not make sense
  • KashmirKashmir Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    I’m only betting at BM. If there are other options I’ll look around. But I’ve been busy. When I saw it the line was 169 i believe.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    if it modeled out and closed at 164 a weeek ago and now it models out and closes at 172? wtf that dont work for my brain!

    - - - Updated - - -
    Kashmir wrote: »
    I’m only betting at BM. If there are other options I’ll look around. But I’ve been busy. When I saw it the line was 169 i believe.
    and 169 to 172 is not a play for you? I play on totals when its 2.5 or more off my model
  • KashmirKashmir Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    I just started doing this in the past week so I have no idea about the prior game. I don't place wagers that far off my number in such a weak market.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    Kashmir wrote: »
    I just started doing this in the past week so I have no idea about the prior game. I don't place wagers that far off my number in such a weak market.
    wow really that is far off your number that is insane my avg
    <style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
    <colgroup><col style="width: 85px"><col width="85"><col width="90"></colgroup><tbody>
    Total Av Diff

    2.36


    Sides Av Diff

    2.03

    </tbody>
    that is overall since the season started that far off 3 off to me is a good number ! shoot I am nearly 2.5 off on average on my sides, wow your model is awesome, very cool dude, much respect!

    - - - Updated - - -
    Kashmir wrote: »
    I just started doing this in the past week so I have no idea about the prior game. I don't place wagers that far off my number in such a weak market.
    do you think a game a week ago assuming all else is equal which it basically was, a line can change 8 points?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    7-18
    Fever O155
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    the variance gods are on me!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    7-19
    Liberty +9
    Mystics U177
    sorry wont be around at 9am to catch morning lines,

    I am way off on both of those games and I think if 175.5 I would still go Under and +7 would still take the Liberty. I think these 2 are really good value bets! first time today got some good line movement and the numbers look way sharper today compared to a few days ago. I was getting nervous, LOL!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    kinda weird with these super high totals they keep getting higher everyday, proceed with caution

    7-19
    Aces U172
    7-20
    Sky U179.5
    Storm +3
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    looking good so far, I hope it keeps rolling! Line value is back these super high weird totals are a little strange. I will update if I figure anything out about it!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    WNBA total
    before 7-10 this season total line avg 162.9 after 7-10 169.7
    that is a big move not sure why? any ideas anyone???
    169 scored avg after 7-10
    163 scored avg before 7-10
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    7-24
    Liberty O155
    Dream O155.5
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    7-25
    Sky +5
    Too many big name injuries for Mercury, my adjustments put it at -5.5 with Griner playing but if she is limited and Taurasi out spells trouble for Mercury
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    I dont see Phoenix taking a big chance with GRiner going into a break, they will limit her or not play her at all and let her use the week to get healthy!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    if you can get Chicago today O169 take it but I am waiting to see if pinny and or BOL get to 169 if they do I will take it
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    darn it I should have got the over at 169.5, too greedy wanted 169 darn it, well good luck I dont have the capability to do the all star game so back when the games are back, cjheck out my cfl it is very interesting line moves are looking good and it is winning
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    I thought I would try and come up with some magic formula for the all star game
    so I have player rankings I use for injuries and I added up both teams and to me it looks like 5.5 Team Delle
    so in my very educated (LOL) projection is the Delle team -5.5 so I am going to bet Delle -2.5

    - - - Updated - - -

    of course my over under is stupid low so nothing going for me on totals
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    I wonder if that system I used for the all star game is actually anything or just coincidence up to this point, I mean it is not closed yet! Might close at +3 LOL
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    if you can get Dallas -8.5 at 5dimes take it, I dont have a 5dimes account but if you can take it!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    7-31
    Dream O163
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited July 2018
    7-31 Mystics +4
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