Betting Talk

WNBA Picks

1235710

Comments

  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    It's just not right the transaction should be quick and if not whatever price you cashed out is what you should get. GL
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I will post all my WNBA picks the morning of the games, I will no longer be doing overnights, I got pissed at BOL for sending me BTC 4 days later and the price of BTC had dropped more than my profit, some BS, how can it take 4 days to do a BTC withdraw, anyway I asked them to expedite and they laughed at me so I threatened to leave and they laughed again and showed me the door, I still have the account but will only place bets there now if they line is sweet and their limits are high enough no more openers with them for me!

    LOL. Bitcoin.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    Playing openers was dumb anyway honestly
    A waste of time profit too small
    B the books dont pay enough to help them set their lines for 250 bucks
    C if you are wrong with openers you can be more wrong on an opener over a seasoned line.

    You may make a gambler yet. Now if only you can figure out that CLV thing.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    that CLV thing is still kicking my ass but did you see my MLB numbers I am killing it, my model is how does Marisa Tomei put it balls on perfect accurate. Iam killing it since I made the changes on MLB, I am averaging 1.88% CLV. I think the thing is now to get it super consistent. I actually think this is like playing days, you need confidence LOL, its crazy.

    - - - Updated - - -

    and sitting at 2.9% clv on the Ball-less Ball

    - - - Updated - - -

    and this is my NBA model I am using with NBA, and it is going to be even better on the NBA I hope! Now MY SDQL leaves something to be desired LMAO!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    Pokerjoe gave me some injury scoring for totals that has helped a ton! HAts off to pokerjoe, he rocks! is he on this forum? I only chat with him on Twitter.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    6-26 Plays
    Storm +6.5
    Wings +9.5
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    6-26
    Dallas O160
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    Pokerjoe gave me some injury scoring for totals that has helped a ton! HAts off to pokerjoe, he rocks! is he on this forum? I only chat with him on Twitter.

    He has never posted here as far as I know. I believe he has a free gambling book for download on Amazon if he is the one I remember doing it. You might want to check it out considering your novice status. You might find it educational.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    Pokerjoe gave me some injury scoring for totals that has helped a ton! HAts off to pokerjoe, he rocks! is he on this forum? I only chat with him on Twitter.

    Pokerjoe is the real deal. Longtime forum vet and I believe he resides here.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    looks like he has not posted in a long time! it takes him about a month to answer on Twitter but is a very nice guy and super knowledgable. I hope I can keep my big mouth quiet long enough to get some good info from him. He has been very helpful with hoops!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    R40 wrote: »
    He has never posted here as far as I know. I believe he has a free gambling book for download on Amazon if he is the one I remember doing it. You might want to check it out considering your novice status. You might find it educational.

    his book sharper is really good especially for noobs like me!, I really enjoyed it and learned a lot of evenhow to start to think another way about games and betting. A must read for noobs for sure and really anyone betting period. I also 100% recommend for anyone tailing people to read black cat in a coal cellar, it helps a ton to try and get the difference between a real capper and a guy who has good marketing.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    . Iam killing it since I made the changes on MLB, I am averaging 1.88% CLV. !

    I have never thought in terms of CLV % but that seems subpar. Aren't you going to need more like 5%?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    6-27 Model Plays (I was watching BT odds and did not check directly so I am just now betting!
    Indiana +12
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    <style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
    <colgroup><col style="width: 48px"><col width="113"><col width="55"><col width="43"><col width="65"><col width="65"><col width="68"><col width="60"><col width="75"><col width="61"><col width="70"><col width="65"><col width="71"></colgroup><tbody>
    Date
    Team
    My Line
    Close
    Bet At
    Bet Amt
    Result
    C3 Lines
    Notes
    Potential
    Est CLV%
    Odds
    Actual CLV


    6/12
    Nationals

    131
    156
    0.64
    L





    4.23%


    6/12
    Cubs

    -111
    109
    0.92
    L





    4.76%


    6/12
    Royals

    -104
    -105
    1.05
    L





    -0.24%


    6/12
    Astros

    -148
    -127
    1.27
    W





    3.73%


    6/13
    Tigers

    128
    155
    0.65
    W





    4.64%


    6/13
    Dodgers

    -174
    -168
    1.68
    W





    0.82%


    6/15
    Diamondbacks

    -127
    -121
    1.21
    W





    1.20%


    6/16
    Blue Jays

    212
    199
    0.50
    W





    -1.39%


    6/16
    Twins

    165
    190
    0.53
    W





    3.25%


    6/17
    Orioles

    -182
    -156
    1.56
    W





    3.60%


    6/18
    Pirates

    -100
    119
    0.84
    W





    4.34%


    6/19
    Twins

    181
    155
    0.65
    W





    -3.63%


    6/20
    Rockies

    -108
    -107
    1.07
    W





    0.23%


    6/21
    Mariners

    170
    180
    0.56
    L





    1.32%


    6/21
    Yankees

    -185
    -190
    1.90
    W





    -0.60%


    6/21
    Cardinals

    104
    115
    0.87
    L





    2.51%


    6/22
    Nationals

    -162
    -134
    1.34
    L





    4.57%


    6/22
    Mets

    133
    137
    0.73
    L





    0.72%


    6/23
    Tigers

    221
    236
    0.42
    L





    1.39%


    6/23
    Royals

    292
    288
    0.35
    L





    -0.26%


    6/24
    Rangers

    151
    170
    0.59
    L





    2.80%


    6/25
    Nationals

    104
    106
    0.94
    L





    0.48%


    6/25
    Padres

    118
    144
    0.69
    L





    4.89%


    6/26
    Phillies

    165
    194
    0.52
    L





    3.72%


    6/26
    Yankees

    -180
    -215
    2.15
    W





    -3.97%


    6/26
    Rockies

    135
    119
    0.84
    L





    -3.11%


    6/27
    Braves


    -130
    1.30








    </tbody>
    if you see anything I can do please let me know, I am always 100% open to any suggestions ie playing too many faves, too many big dogs, anything, cause I am just playing whatever I think has line value period, couple of those negs are cancel out games BTW
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    6-27
    Chicago O156
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    33-19-1 Units +12.1 before 6-27 games!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    R40 wrote: »
    I have never thought in terms of CLV % but that seems subpar. Aren't you going to need more like 5%?

    5% is really really high, I have never seen anyone even get close to that number!
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    6-28
    NY +9.5

    - - - Updated - - -

    34-19-2 Units +13.1 before 6-28 games
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    5% is really really high, I have never seen anyone even get close to that number!

    That would be high for every game on the board which I guess is what you are referring to. But isn't that what you are looking for in games bet?

    If you are getting 1.88% on every game, I guess you would have a reasonable chance of finding good bets.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    I dont bet that the market is wrong, I bet that the market is going to be correct. I got the line of the Dodgers +144 and the current line is say +114 or +184 I will bet that game hoping that the market will get correct somewhere closer to +144. The difference between the number I bet at and the number it closes at, I take those numbers subtract the margin from that and turn them into implied probability and subtract to calculate CLV.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I dont bet that the market is wrong, I bet that the market is going to be correct. I got the line of the Dodgers +144 and the current line is say +114 or +184 I will bet that game hoping that the market will get correct somewhere closer to +144. The difference between the number I bet at and the number it closes at, I take those numbers subtract the margin from that and turn them into implied probability and subtract to calculate CLV.

    What is your CLV percentage on your WNBA bets this year?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    +2.88% before margin
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    +2.88% before margin

    So how are you calculating? I would assume that if you bet even and the line moves to -105 you have 5% CLV. So you would want at least 3% to equal a basic half-point line move.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    if I buy say -8 at -105 that is a 51.22% IP and if it closes at -8 at -110 that is a 52.38% IP, so that would be 1.16% CLV BEFORE margin
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    if I buy say -8 at -105 that is a 51.22% IP and if it closes at -8 at -110 that is a 52.38% IP, so that would be 1.16% CLV BEFORE margin

    OK. What do you consider margin again? Because that is not profitable so I think I am about right here.

    So what is 2.88% going to be on a regular basketball line sort of move as a theoretical equivalent example.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    margin on a game is about 1.22%
    so example
    the above bet -105 to -110 is nearly break even
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    margin on a game is about 1.22%
    so example
    the above bet -105 to -110 is nearly break even

    Yeah. Nearly. 2.88% is going to be barely profitable, no?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    to get around 2.88% you need to say bet at -105 and it closes at -118 roughly
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited June 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    to get around 2.88% you need to say bet at -105 and it closes at -118 roughly

    OK then. That's pretty good.
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