Betting Talk

CLV VS line movement direction

danshandanshan Senior Member
edited May 2018 in Sports Betting
We all can basically in theory agree long term CLV + bettors who are beating the margin are profitable. But I see a gap here where there might be another indicator and that being movement direction. Please chime in.

Example I wont bet the Yankees if they are more fave than -140
so I wait all day and tomorrow comes and they are now 5 minutes before close they are -139, so I BET!
my line is -139 and it closes 5 minutes later at -141.
this is for sure negative value against the margin no argument there but could this be a possible indicator that the market agreed with your pick? I am saying if you are doing this often you can look horrible against the margin but could you still be on the right side of more than the assumed 50-50. If you could say do this over a large sample size and maintained some above a few deviations your direction could this be an indicator of skill? say it was 68% out of 5000 bets even though the clv over those 5000 bets was negative against the margin but the direction was nearly 2 out of 3 your way, would that indicate anything or am I just talking gibberish again?
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Comments

  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    You could be on to something and hopefully you'll get some comments and opinions and maybe take this to next level. GL I find this very interesting and looking forward to more. :)
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    if your comment is sincere, thanks and your input would be helpful since you are very experienced in all this type of stuff;I am sure the whole community could gain something from your ideas on this. I think if some of the rude and just call people dumb guys would leave people alone more people might share their opinion and we all might learn something. I do not understand why some of you old time guys just think there is only one way to do everything, man guys do us and yourselves a favor and open your mind. Im not talking about sharing your model we are talking about how a guy can rate himself. I personally hate to win or lose and not know why, My biggest goal is to find out what is truly going on. CLV is just like wins, you could literally just be lucky with CLV and suck. I really think lots of very very successful long term bettors bet last minute and bet any time they see value without regard for line value. I hope some of you guys take a chance and just throw your ideas out here and some of you mean call people dumb right away guys just chill and join in or just give this a pass.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    We all can basically in theory agree long term CLV + bettors who are beating the margin are profitable.
    Yes
    danshan wrote: »
    Example I wont bet the Yankees if they are more fave than -140
    so I wait all day and tomorrow comes and they are now 5 minutes before close they are -139, so I BET!
    my line is -139 and it closes 5 minutes later at -141.

    You got a better line than the closing line, so you have 2 cents of positive line value
    danshan wrote: »
    this is for sure negative value against the margin no argument there
    Wut?
    danshan wrote: »
    but could this be a possible indicator that the market agreed with your pick?

    That's exactly what is happening, it's called positive CLV
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited May 2018
    He’s saying that simply beating a closing line by 2 cents wouldn’t necessarily be profitable long term in an efficient market (with everything else being equal)...you’d need to beat the “no-vig” line in that scenario.
  • RightAngleRightAngle Admin
    edited May 2018
    Doubt anyone would care much about CLV if you hit 68% on 5000 -110 bets.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    its not hitting 68% it would be the line going your direction in 68% of the 5000 bets
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    it happens often and causes me serious headaches and what to do scenarios because, I am ultimately focused on +CLV but when a bet shows me value based on my model prediction and it is 5 minutes before close it is likely that line will not move enough to show +CLV against the vig. So lets say you have scenarios of bettor profiles

    bettor A has a CLV of +2.00% he has 57% of his lines go in his direction
    bettor B has CLV of -1.00% this guy bets all the time whenever he likes the line and he has 80% of the lines go in his direction

    which is more skilled with this info only?
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I'm serious and would like to hear other people's thoughts. . "I really think lots of very very successful long term bettors bet last minute" I don't agree with that although I've been betting late because the market has become more efficient year after year and my lines are not showing the value they did last year and some years before. "and bet any time they see value without regard for line value" This statement confuses me or maybe I'm wrong or not understanding but how can you see value in a game without having line value.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    this is what I'm be looking for in the morning. Just got home was out all night and didn't look at any lines. When I see that my lines are as good as they were last year that's when I'll start playing overnights because I think it's the best way to go regarding baseball'
    Milw -105
    Giants -160
    Dodgers -155
    Atlanta +100
    Cleveland -200
    T.Bay -150
    Boston -300
    Houston -150
    Philly -125
    Toronto -115
    Cards -120
    Wash -220

    Please don't be insulted if I don't get into discussions about closing lines and games I really don't have the time. But I wish you the best of of luck and hope you find what your searching for.
  • PP865PP865 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    it happens often and causes me serious headaches and what to do scenarios because, I am ultimately focused on +CLV but when a bet shows me value based on my model prediction and it is 5 minutes before close it is likely that line will not move enough to show +CLV against the vig. So lets say you have scenarios of bettor profiles

    bettor A has a CLV of +2.00% he has 57% of his lines go in his direction
    bettor B has CLV of -1.00% this guy bets all the time whenever he likes the line and he has 80% of the lines go in his direction

    which is more skilled with this info only?

    I've no idea if you were using the 5 minutes before kick-off as an example but, if your model is often only showing value when it's 5 minutes before kick-off, it's very likely that your model is off. Assuming an efficient market, your model should be close to the closing line on most games if you've an edge.
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    I'm serious and would like to hear other people's thoughts. . "I really think lots of very very successful long term bettors bet last minute" I don't agree with that although I've been betting late because the market has become more efficient year after year and my lines are not showing the value they did last year and some years before. "and bet any time they see value without regard for line value" This statement confuses me or maybe I'm wrong or not understanding but how can you see value in a game without having line value.

    I don't agree with the notion that lots of successful bettors bet last minute either. If anything, they will bet whenever it's best for them to bet whether it be because the limits went up or if a game reached a certain number/price. I typically avoid betting games when it's close to kick-off in efficient markets because by then the number is about where it should be.
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    this is what I'm be looking for in the morning. Just got home was out all night and didn't look at any lines. When I see that my lines are as good as they were last year that's when I'll start playing overnights because I think it's the best way to go regarding baseball'
    Milw -105
    Giants -160
    Dodgers -155
    Atlanta +100
    Cleveland -200
    T.Bay -150
    Boston -300
    Houston -150
    Philly -125
    Toronto -115
    Cards -120
    Wash -220

    Please don't be insulted if I don't get into discussions about closing lines and games I really don't have the time. But I wish you the best of of luck and hope you find what your searching for.

    Your numbers are pretty similar to mine, here's what I have for today:

    902 Arizona(Koch) +1.05
    904 San Francisco(Suarez) -1.50
    906 Miami(Smith) +1.55
    908 Atlanta(McCarthy) +1.00
    912 Kansas City(Hammel) -1.15
    916 Boston(Sale) -3.25
    918 Houston(Verlander) -1.45
    920 Baltimore(Castro) +1.25
    924 NY Mets(Wheeler) +1.15
    926 Minnesota(Lynn) +1.30
    928 Washington(Scherzer) -2.15

    The only one we seem to be far off on is the Tampa Bay/Kansas City game.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    I'm serious and would like to hear other people's thoughts. . "I really think lots of very very successful long term bettors bet last minute" I don't agree with that although I've been betting late because the market has become more efficient year after year and my lines are not showing the value they did last year and some years before. "and bet any time they see value without regard for line value" This statement confuses me or maybe I'm wrong or not understanding but how can you see value in a game without having line value.


    I appreciate your response, thanks for that and the whole community always appreciates your input.
    so here is the scenario and I hope this helps clarify what i am hinting at
    Bettor A has a model that says the Yankees -140 so he says I bet them at anything above -130 and so here the Yankees open at -151 and he is pass and 5 minutes before first pitch the Yankees drop to -129 and he says oh great yeah!!!!! and bets -129, now the Yanks close at -131.
    His CLV is garbage but the line moved in his direction
    He obviously has positive line value but not enough to cover the margin -129 to -131
    so his CLV is bad but the line moved in his direction

    so my question is this a sharp bet or not? I am only using 1 game here but if this is his scenario and this is the result say 70% of the time would that not imply skill?
    I really want to know how you can tell if someone is skilled.
    OT when you say line value do you mean closing line value or do you mean value because you think Yanks are -170 is fair and you bet at -140.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    PP865 couple questions for you and thanks for the responses
    so if I bet the Yanks at -130 5 minutes before kickoff and it closes at -130 that is a poor bet because the market is effecient and you are just paying juice on that wager? Your model having long term accuracy says its -150 and you got it at -130 is not relevant because the market is effecient?
    I think we know overall the Market is effecient but I think we all also know that is not true on every game. We all see games close at -130 and we are like wtf what is this, I got this at -105 and nothing shows me -130, that happens and it is true and overall when you take into account 50000000000 games that game falls inbetween the sheets and the market stays effecient. I personally have read on here from skilled bettors that I would say probably have a good idea of prices and they say all the time WTF I got Braves at -130 and they closed at +100 and another skilled bettor will chime in and say I got -125.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    No and Yes. Gotta go.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    No and Yes. Gotta go.
    so you are saying if he did it once he is probably not skilled but if he could do it over a good sample size and be at 70% his way he could be skilled?
    and what about this question and answer this one and then go, MR super busy on here all day guy!
    OT when you say line value do you mean closing line value or do you mean value because you think Yanks are -170 is fair and you bet at -140.
  • ericvandenericvanden Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I know of a group that will wait until shortly before first pitch (within 10 minutes) to make their wager. They bet earlier in the day as well but they're willing to sacrifice a slightly better win percentage in exchange for getting much more down on a game the closer it gets to the start of the game, especially if they feel it'll be around that number.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    so this group does not base their skill on CLV, they base their skill on what do you know?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    why do they wait till the end?
  • ericvandenericvanden Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    They still beat the close, they just wait on occasion to put down at every book they can shortly before the books close. More often than not, the wagers are placed within 3 hours of the event but its not uncommon for the wagers to jammed in shortly before going off the board.
  • ericvandenericvanden Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    why do they wait till the end?

    They have access to some books/agents that raise their limits at certain points in the day. That's the main reason but that's what I've been told by a friend who helps them get down.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    do you agree it is pretty hard to beat the close by margin betting it right before kickoff and does that still imply it is not a good wager??
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I guess ultimately how in the world do we know when we place a bet if its a good bet or bad bet
    W/L does not matter until you have 10000 bets and by then if you suck you are broke
    CLV is a great measure, I mean that is how the house makes money but my fear here is that most people even here dont talk about it much and seem to discount it. I still believe to this moment you cant win if you cant beat the line by more than margin but many smart people will argue with that wholeheartedly.
  • ericvandenericvanden Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    They still beat the close but there's less time for steam chasers to hop on but they wager a large amount betting micro edges. Also, I think it comes off as less sharp to some idiot agents. Some agents watch that stuff closely throughout the day. In my experience, you've got a better chance of sticking around playing stuff closer to tipoff/first pitch/kickoff than you do playing it early in the week for football or earlier in the day for hoops/mlb. That could be part of it as well.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    they bet last minute sometimes and on those last minute bets they beat the close still by at least margin enough of the time to be profitable?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    my question was
    Hey Joseph, do you think you could agree or disagree, I am wondering if you bet 1000 bets and 70% or more go in your direction maybe not enough to beat the margin, that 70% could be a reasonable indicator of skill? example bet @ -110 & it closes at -111 that would count

    reply
    Yes, it might show skill, but insufficient to make a long term profit. I might be a highly skilled golf tournament winner forecaster but because of the huge margin in such a market I still might be a million miles away from profitable expectation.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I want to set up for bitcoin and want to use Airbitz as my Internet wallet but when I try to get there it says site can't be reached. Am I doing something wrong or is there another one you can recommend.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    blockchain.info is the best for just an online wallet, although I dont keep any coins online, I use keepkey two reasons, 1 if the wallet goes bankrupt or gets hacked 2 I dont think its anyones business where i send my coins.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I just want to use it for a withdrawal and hopefully not but a possible deposit in the future. I'm not leaving anything anywhere which one would you suggest? I'm a rookie at this but I'm trying to set things up.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    blockchain.info is the best
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    If you get 70% of your bets to move right before close, you should definitely be betting earlier.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Just one more thing remember I'm old. Its Sportsbook to blockchain to coinbase to bank is that right.
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