Betting Talk

CLV VS line movement direction

135

Comments

  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    from coinbase?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    jets sent you an email
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    This will be the last time I bother you. I bought a little bitcoin and it says I can't transfer it or withdraw for 16 days is that usually for the first time.
    from coinbase? I have not seen that we talking X,XXX or XX or XXX?
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Yes and XX just a test
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    that is strange, they must have changed some other shit again for new signups or something, if you need some btc for something give me your wallet and you can pay me back when you get it or whenever
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    that is strange, they must have changed some other shit again for new signups or something, if you need some btc for something give me your wallet and you can pay me back when you get it or whenever

    Thank you but I'm good. I think I read it wrong I think once it's verified in three days all will be good. It really doesn't matter how long it takes I just want to make sure it's being done right before I sent any real money there. Thank you very much for your help that was very nice of you.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Cb is legit, the worse they will do is refund you or make you withdraw from there, not much risk to lose and keep no matter the headache or not 2 factor on at all times
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    When I receive the money in BC and send it to the next place does it go as US cash or do I have to request that. Then I send it to my bank. For some reason I'm not getting this. I have to check you tube and see it.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    book to blockchain is btc
    blockchain to coinbase is btc
    coinbase you do what is technically a sell of btc and the payout to you is in USD
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    book to blockchain is btc
    blockchain to coinbase is btc
    coinbase you do what is technically a sell of btc and the payout to you is in USD

    I got it I'm just on hold.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    from Joseph B
    Yes, it might show skill, but insufficient to make a long term profit. I might be a highly skilled golf tournament winner forecaster but because of the huge margin in such a market I still might be a million miles away from profitable expectation.
    No, that implies that the closing line is perfect. It's not. It's just probably better, on average, than all lines that precede it.On average the closing line provides an accurate measure of 'true' probabilities. But that doesn't imply someone couldn't be even more accuarate.

    Remember, betting is like an arms race. The closing line is equivalent to the best we have so far, but that's not the same as the best possible. What counts in this business is relative, not absolute, accuracy.
  • JayJayOkochaJayJayOkocha Junior Member
    edited May 2018
    great share danshan.joseph b is the men
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    yeah man I wish someone thought this conversation was interesting because I think it has a ton of value for bettors trying to get a grip on when to quit or when to go!
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    yeah man I wish someone thought this conversation was interesting because I think it has a ton of value for bettors trying to get a grip on when to quit or when to go!

    CLV is a measurement device. You cannot drive a car by looking in the rearview mirror. You have to see forward. How do you think you would use CLV to decide when to bet or not to?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I think for me I would like to know if I should be betting or not. I won last year in the NBA with +CLV and I won with an sdql that was negative CLV. I think it would be important to know luck or skill. I think the real question anyone who tries to set lines or be serious about this needs to know is it skill or luck. For me the jury is still out all the way around. Another big disturbance for me is the possible realization that CLV is a symptom but not the disease and the only true measure is 1000's of plays. Explain this to me TODAY not 10 years ago how do books make money?
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    Explain this to me TODAY not 10 years ago how do books make money?

    Recreational players, compulsives and wannabe sharps.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    yeah but specifically how do they make money?
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    yeah but specifically how do they make money?

    what kinda fuken response is that? I gave you 3 components. How much more specific can I be?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    example they have a game Ducks VS Donkeys
    so they set a line of -150 and start taking action
    Ducks get 5000
    Donkeys get 5000
    Ducks win they pay out 4500 and keep 500 right? lets assume this a simple version of what they do.
    if this is what they do, they truly dont care about CLV, they are just charging a handling fee or is that not how it works? are they pplaying one side thinking the line juice is enough to still win more than lose?
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    Dan you wanna learn the intricacies of bookmaking? I can get you on-the-job training at a CR book. Entry level is answering phones. You game?
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    I dont want to learn the intricacies I just want the basic understanding.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    I think for me I would like to know if I should be betting or not. I won last year in the NBA with +CLV and I won with an sdql that was negative CLV. I think it would be important to know luck or skill. I think the real question anyone who tries to set lines or be serious about this needs to know is it skill or luck. For me the jury is still out all the way around. Another big disturbance for me is the possible realization that CLV is a symptom but not the disease and the only true measure is 1000's of plays. Explain this to me TODAY not 10 years ago how do books make money?

    That is what CLV is for. You don't need 1000s of bets to determine your skill, you can determine it in the short term by judging your CLV because the market is efficient enough to give you an approximation of your projected winning percentage with not that many bets.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    example they have a game Ducks VS Donkeys
    so they set a line of -150 and start taking action
    Ducks get 5000
    Donkeys get 5000
    Ducks win they pay out 4500 and keep 500 right? lets assume this a simple version of what they do.
    if this is what they do, they truly dont care about CLV, they are just charging a handling fee or is that not how it works? are they pplaying one side thinking the line juice is enough to still win more than lose?

    Books put out a line. Move based on money and then win off the bet premium. They try to stay somewhat balanced which is basically impossible so try to be unbalanced on the winning side by reviewing what money is where.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    R40 wrote: »
    That is what CLV is for. You don't need 1000s of bets to determine your skill, you can determine it in the short term by judging your CLV because the market is efficient enough to give you an approximation of your projected winning percentage with not that many bets.
    do you agree it is possible for a guy like me (lucky guy) to have positive line value on 100 bets? especially doing it the BS way most people do, not even counting the margin. Right now MLB I have 113 games in and my going positive CLV is 66% of the time and my going + with me against the margin is 45% of the time, of course it has drastically improved daily but overall those are the numbers and that would tell me I am not skilled and I track kinda most people posting up here and very few of them actually ever even get close to my numbers and remember this is doing overnights and line maxes of 1k to 5k which means there is no way to make money at that level! I mean you can make peanuts what 500 dollars net or something
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    do you agree it is possible for a guy like me (lucky guy) to have positive line value on 100 bets? especially doing it the BS way most people do, not even counting the margin. Right now MLB I have 113 games in and my going positive CLV is 66% of the time and my going + with me against the margin is 45% of the time, of course it has drastically improved daily but overall those are the numbers and that would tell me I am not skilled and I track kinda most people posting up here and very few of them actually ever even get close to my numbers and remember this is doing overnights and line maxes of 1k to 5k which means there is no way to make money at that level! I mean you can make peanuts what 500 dollars net or something

    Yes. You are unlikely to have 1 point of CLV through luck though. That is why you measure how much CLV you have. If you have plus CLV by count but minimal CLV by value then you do not have much to go on. If you have no CLV by count but major CLV by value, you are most likely highly unlucky.

    That is why I tell you that you need to measure your CLV and people will tell you if you have value or not.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    why are you not likely to have 1 point of CLV from luck? I mean in theory Buffett could be just lucky. I mean clv can go with or against you and if you are lucky you could have 100 games go with you? Please explain to me how that is wrong because I am having a hard time understanding that point alone. Your win losses in short term mean nothing because its maybe luck, couldnt you argue the same thing for CLV, maybe in a lesser form but still is possibly to just be darn lucky and get great CLV.
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    why are you not likely to have 1 point of CLV from luck? I mean in theory Buffett could be just lucky. I mean clv can go with or against you and if you are lucky you could have 100 games go with you? Please explain to me how that is wrong because I am having a hard time understanding that point alone. Your win losses in short term mean nothing because its maybe luck, couldnt you argue the same thing for CLV, maybe in a lesser form but still is possibly to just be darn lucky and get great CLV.

    Because the market is highly accurate in most cases. Refer to the NBA article I referenced a while back. You've all these computer programmers matching wits with reams of information and they don't miss much. Big line moves are often injury related.

    However, there is still line value available on select games. So they may be right on all but 5 of the games on the board but the sharp gambler will hit all 5 hard. If you are a smart gambler, you will be hitting those 5 along with them.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    can a person have +CLV after say 50 games on just pure luck ie throwing darts to pick games?
  • R40R40 Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    danshan wrote: »
    can a person have +CLV after say 50 games on just pure luck ie throwing darts to pick games?

    Yes. Maybe half point. Doubtful 1 point almost certainly not 2 points.

    There is no such thing as an efficient market and there never will be. But the market is efficient enough. So Buffet can beat the market but that does not mean there is no market efficiency or that Buffet has simply have been lucky.

    Gamblers will always be able to beat the market. The amount of games they can beat the market on may be reduced but sharp gamblers will always be able to make money.
  • danshandanshan Senior Member
    edited May 2018
    so CLV is the same as W-L it can be luck and if it can be luck than it is not a good measure of skill. I think its the best measure we have but its not a true indicator, I would not start cancer treatment with those kind of numbers. I need something more accurate. I am also convinced the market is not always effecient and that causes a real problem with CLV being accurate. You take 50 super bowls and run your CLV and you will be shit shocked how bad your model is. I think the best approach is the most deadly, huge sample size and if you are wrong it is way way way too late and you are broke.
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